SOLAR ACTIVITYSOLAR ACTIVITYANDAND

FOREST FIRESFOREST FIRES

Milan Milan MilenkoviMilenkoviFaculty of Forestry, University of BelgradeFaculty of Forestry, University of Belgrade

Data for forest firesData for forest firesNot uniform on global scaleNot uniform on global scaleOur knowledge is limited for behavior and trends Our knowledge is limited for behavior and trends

especially for mountain regionsespecially for mountain regionsSatellite data Satellite data positive and negative sites for positive and negative sites for

detection of burned locationsdetection of burned locations

Officially data of FAO Officially data of FAO about 40% of forest fires are with about 40% of forest fires are with unknown causes in Europeunknown causes in Europe

Similar data for Balkan peninsulaSimilar data for Balkan peninsula

Figure 1. Large number of fires was spreading from Italy over the Balkans, Hungary, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia and Poland on March 26th 2003(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=8620)

Figure 2. Fires and smoke across the Balkan Peninsula Satellite: Aqua - Pixel size: 1km - Alternate pixel size: 500m | 250m 2007/206 - 07/25 at 11:15 UTC

Figure 3. Hundreds, probably thousands fires are burning in the heart of the South American Continent on September 20th 2005. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=13150)

Figure 4. Africa is the center of our planet with more burned biomass on the annual level than anywhere else (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/BiomassBurning/biomass_burning3.html)

Figure 5. Tens of the localities were fire seized in the western part of the USA from Texas to Washington, including Florida in the southeast and Alaska in the northwest (http://active firemaps.fs.fed.us/lg_fire2.php)

Figure 6. When we looked at figure 5, it was almost impossible to expect that in this case on July 4th 2006. the area of Canada would be spared (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=13690)

Figure 7. Arrangement of all fires during ten days activity in period 14-24.10.2002. (http://www.fire.uni-freiburg.de/iffn/iffn_28/Russia-1.pdf)

Figure 8. Numerous fires were scattered across Southeast Asia on January 21, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASAs Aqua satellite passed overhead and captured this image (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=14085)

Figure 9. Satellite recording of the fires at the utmost southeast of Europe on 23.11.2002. (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Nov2002/SERussia.AMOA2002325_lrg.jpg)

HELIOCENTRIC HYPOTESIS OF ORIGIN OF HELIOCENTRIC HYPOTESIS OF ORIGIN OF FOREST FIRESFOREST FIRES

According the data for 15 cases the particlesAccording the data for 15 cases the particles velocities were of 550 km/s, velocities were of 550 km/s, while in some situations even over 1 000 km/s. Presented temperawhile in some situations even over 1 000 km/s. Presented temperatures tures

are for proton, ion and nucleon SW particles. It is measured on are for proton, ion and nucleon SW particles. It is measured on 1.5 million 1.5 million km from the Earth while ACE satellites make the observations km from the Earth while ACE satellites make the observations

((http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_data.htmlhttp://www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_data.html). Particle temperatures ). Particle temperatures reached even over a million reached even over a million C in some situations. Under the SW C in some situations. Under the SW

velocities of e.g. about 800 km/s, we can estimate that highly evelocities of e.g. about 800 km/s, we can estimate that highly energetic nergetic particles, having also high thermal temperature, arrived to Eartparticles, having also high thermal temperature, arrived to Earth for about h for about

45 minutes from the moment when the instruments had registered t45 minutes from the moment when the instruments had registered them.hem.

Table. Comprehensive survey of locations in Europe where the fires were observed from satellites and previously recorded parameters (coronal holes,

energetic regions and solar wind)

1.1E+041.7E+072.6E+0833800>1 000 000Beta delta S583 CH 183 Portugal 24. 08. 2005

4.9E+031.5E+065.9E+0756630500 000 Beta gamma 10792CH 198 Portugal 03. 08. 2005

6.7E+032.2e+06, 29. 08 -

2.8e+06 30. 08. -2.3e+06

1.2e+07 01. 08 5.9e+07

23635500 000 Beta-gamma-delta10792CH 177 Greece28. 07. 2005

3.8E+031.6E+045.8E+0511550400 000 Beta gamma delta10661CH 110 River Volga 23. 08. 2004

3.1E+039.5E+062.7E+0854968>1 000 000Beta gamma delta10652CH 106 Portugal Spain 28. 07. 2004

2.7E+031.2E+041.7E+0610770>1 000 000Beta gamma delta10456CH 55 Portugal 13. 09. 2003

2.7E+031.2e+04 29. 07. 1.3e+04 1.7E+0660850>1 000 000Beta gamma

delta10422CH 49 France 28. 07. 2003

2.7E+031.2E+041.5E+067575500 000 Beta gamma delta10410CH 49 Italy 24. 07. 2003

2.8E+031.2E+045.5E+0623870960 000 Beta gamma 10314CH 26 Balkans 26. 03. 2003

2.9E+031.2E+046.1E+0520630600 000 Gamma delta 10296CH 23 SW Russia 02. 03. 2003

2.9e+03 24. 11. 3.1e+03 1.1E+042.0E+0654800>1 000 000

Beta gamma delta10091CH NN Caspian Lake

23. 11. 2002

>100 MeV>10 MeV>1 MeV

Proton flux (protons/cm2-day-sr)

Max particle density

(p/cm3) 3-4 days before

the fire

Max radial velocity of particles (km/s)

Max temperature of

particles (K 000)

Magnetic structure

Energetic regionCoronal hole

Locations in EuropeDate of fire

Forest fire data: Natural Hazards >> Fires >>NN coronal holes before 2003: Coronal hole data: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/index.htmlEnergetic region parameters:http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ACErtsw_data.htmlProton parameters data: http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/crn/ * Energetic region is the location on the Sun with sunspots with different magnetic structure

Figure 10. A day before the fires in Serbia, 10946 energetic region was recorded in the east of the Sun (in geo effective position), while at the same time electromagnetic waves from CH260 coronary hole were emitted toward Earth (http://www.dxlc.com/solar/)

Figure 11. Proton velocities were reaching the values of mostly over 600 km/s from 11th-16th of March 2007

Figure 12. Sudden proton energy rise at the beginning of 21. 11. 2002.(http://www.sel.noaa.gov/ace/ace_rtsw_data.html)

Figure 13. Wind Shear in the 150-300 mb layer mean minus 700-925 mb layer mean (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html)

Figure 14. Satellite recording of the air masses breakthrough over West Europe on 24. 08. 2005 (http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus.html)

Figure 15. Sudden rises in protons in all energetic ranges at the beginning of 22nd.08.2005 (http://umtof.umd.edu/pm/crn/CRN_1996.GIF)

Figure 16. Satellite recording of fires in Portugal on 24. 08. 2005(http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/Archive/Aug2005/Portugal_fires.TMOA2005234_lrg.jpg)

Figure 17. Schematic survey of the way of SW penetration towards topographic surface

On the basis of presented results we are of opinion that the futOn the basis of presented results we are of opinion that the future researches ure researches can be aimed into three basic directions. can be aimed into three basic directions.

The first one is connected with the establishing of the chronoloThe first one is connected with the establishing of the chronological connection gical connection between forest fires and processes on the Sun on statistically sbetween forest fires and processes on the Sun on statistically satisfied number atisfied number of samples. of samples.

The second one relates to experimental laboratory researches thaThe second one relates to experimental laboratory researches that could at t could at least approximately simulate the conditions for which there is aleast approximately simulate the conditions for which there is a conviction that conviction that can be responsible predisposition to the phenomenon of the initican be responsible predisposition to the phenomenon of the initial phase of al phase of fire. fire.

The third approach is about astrophysical phenomena and processeThe third approach is about astrophysical phenomena and processes which s which need a detailed parameterization as well as specific study of thneed a detailed parameterization as well as specific study of the particle e particle penetration mechanism from cosmos toward Earthpenetration mechanism from cosmos toward Earths surface i.e. stand of s surface i.e. stand of forests. forests.

NUMBER OF FIRES: 258 BURNED AREA: 11921,50 ha BURNED FORESTS: 6128,93 ha (51,41 %) FIRES PER YEAR: 4,23 AVERAGE BURNED AREA PER YEAR: 195,43 h AVERAGE BURNED FORESTS PER YEAR: 100,47 ha

THE DELIBLATO SANDS

(DELIBLATSKA PEARA)

PERIOD: 1948-2008

Forest fires in the Deliblato Sands (2003 2008)

--------20082008

132,71132,71414,58414,58547,29547,292220072007

--------20062006

10,0010,00--10,0010,002220052005

--------20042004

50,0350,034,304,3054,3354,339920032003

OOthertherhaha

Forest areaForest areahaha

Burned Burned areaareahaha

Number of Number of firesfires

YYearear

Causes of forest fires in the Deliblato Sands (1948-2008) cause Number of fires %

People on public roads 6 2,33

People walking through forest 73 28,29

Workers, shepherds, tourists

42 16,28

People outside forest 38 14,73

Railway 9 3,49 Army 8 3,10 Forestry workers 1 0,39 Selfignition 1 0,39 Unknown causes 80 31,00

258 100,00

Forest fires in the Deliblato Sands (1948-2008)

Fire Number of fires % Ground 229 88,76 Crown 29 11,24

258 100,00

Seasonal Dynamics of Forest Fires in the Deliblato Sands (1948-2008)

Month Number of fires % January 6 2,33 February 22 8,53

March 83 32,17 April 41 15,89 May 22 8,53 June 12 4,65 July 15 5,81

August 31 12,01 September 9 3,49

October 8 3,10 November 5 1,94 December 4 1,55

258 100,00

Daily dynamics of forest fires in the Deliblato Sands (1948-2008)

Time of fire occurrence Number of fires %

Night (20-6) 14 5,43 Morning (6-9) 16 6,20 Daylight (9-18) 221 85,66 Evening (18-20) 7 2,71 258 100,00

Period of wildfire

Burned area (h)

Burned forests

(h) Other (h) Deciduous (h)

Conifers (h)

March 27-29. 1973.

1006,69

748,38

258,31

270,33

478,05

August 30. September

5. 1990.

881,60

705,16

176,44

69,05

636,11

August 10-16. 1996. 3815,40 2235,01 1580,39 677,38 1557,63

5703,69 3688,55 2015,14 1016,76 2671,79

The three greatest wildfires in the Deliblato Sands history

The three greatest wildfires in the Deliblato Sands history have burned 5703,69 h (47,84 % of burned area in the period 1948-2008).

These wildfires have burned 3688,55 h(60,18 % of burned forests in the period 1948-2008).

Wildfire in the Wildfire in the DeliblatoDeliblato Sands Sands -- July July 20072007

Time of fire Time of fire apearanceapearance: 21:30 : 21:30 July July 2424thth 20072007 DurationDuration: 7 : 7 daysdays AreaArea: : BelaBela CrkvaCrkva ((southeastern part of the southeastern part of the

DeliblatoDeliblato SandsSands)) Burned areaBurned area: 546,79 : 546,79 haha Burned forestsBurned forests: 414,58 : 414,58 haha Burned nonBurned non--forest areaforest area: 132,21 : 132,21 haha Weather conditionsWeather conditions: : July July 2424thth 2007 2007 was the was the

hotesthotest day of that year (absolute maximum air day of that year (absolute maximum air temperature 44,9 temperature 44,9 C)C), , strong NW windstrong NW wind

CauseCause: : unknownunknown

The most important fire danger factors in the Deliblato Sands are:- soil- vegetation- climate- absence of water streams- presence of people- condition of forest roads

Fire protection measures implemented

in the Deliblato Sands:

- firebreaks

- biological fire belts

- biomass reduction

- propaganda

- fire lookout service

- forest control

- fire protection plan