Softbank research report 01

(c) 2014 Eurotechnology Japan KK www.eurotechnology.com SoftBank (19th edition) March 19, 2014

SOFTBANK19th Edition, March 19, 2104

!by Gerhard Fasol, PhD, Eurotechnology Japan KK

http://www.eurotechnology.com/ [email protected]

!This is a try-out version with only a few selected pages.

Download latest version here: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/softbank/

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SOFTBANK REPORT - VERSION HISTORY (1)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Photograph: Tetsuzo Matsumoto (on the right, Sr Executive Vice-President of SoftBank Mobile), and Gerhard Fasol (on the left) at a Press Conference about the introduction of the i-Phone to Japan, on August 13, 2008 in Tokyo. Tetsuzo Matsumoto and Gerhard Fasol explained the impact of the i-Phone on Japan to the international Press in Tokyo !Gerhard Fasol is President and Chief Executive Officer of Eurotechnology Japan KK, a boutique consultancy firm for leaders that he founded in 1996 in Tokyo. Eurotechnology Japan KK advises several of the world’s largest blue-chip corporations, financial institutions, the Government of Finland and the European Union on strategy and mergers and acquisitions. Fasol has been working with Japan’s high-tech sector since 1984. He was manager of one of Hitachi’s research-and-development labs, and was Associate Professor of the NTT Telecommunications Chair at Tokyo University. !Fasol has worked since 1984 with Japan’s telecom sector Fasol graduated with a PhD in Semiconductor Physics from Cambridge University and Trinity College, Cambridge



SOFTBANK- “SETTING JAPAN’S TELECOM SECTOR ON FIRE”…

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•There was a time not long ago, when SoftBank’s charismatic founder Masayoshi Son’s ambitions to build a telecom operator in Japan were rejected by the Postal and Telecommunications Ministry (now merged with other Ministries to form the General Affairs Ministry = Soumusho), which would not award Son’s company a telecommunications operator’s license. •For a long time I knew about rumors, that Masayoshi Son once threatened inside the Ministry to set himself on fire here and now (inside the Ministry for Post and Telecommunications of Japan), unless he is given the operating license he had applied for on behalf of his company. •Some years later, the Chief-Editor of BusinessWeek phoned me around noon, and asked me: “if you meet Masayoshi Son now, what would you ask him?” Of course he was on his way to interview Masayoshi Son about an hour later. So I though for a moment and proposed three questions, the first question was if it was true that Masayoshi Son threatened to set himself on fire. •The Chief-Editor of BusinessWeek soon after phoned me with Masayoshi Son’s answer: “Yes, I threatened to set myself on fire – but I did not bring any petrol along to carry out my threat”. •The lead article about this interview with Masayoshi Son – which was based on my suggested question – is entitled “Setting Fire To The Cell-Phone Market”, and can be found online here: •http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_44/b3906073.htm


http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/04_44/b3906073.htm


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY- SOFTBANK

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•SoftBank is primarily an internet and telecommunications investment company led by the charismatic Masayoshi Son, following a “Time-Machine” principle: SoftBank invested in US internet companies (especially YAHOO) in the 1990s, subsequently in Japanese internet companies in the 2000s, and currently in Chinese internet companies, thus aiming to profit from the time lag in internet development between US, Japan and China. •More recently, based on the successful acquisition and turn-round of Vodafone-Japan, SoftBank acquired the US operator SPRINT, and aims to become the No. 1 telecom operator globally. •SoftBank invested about YEN 301.9 Billion (US$ 3 Billion) following this “time machine” theme. These investments are currently valued around YEN 2834.1 Billion (US$ 28 Billion), ie SoftBank achieved an average 9-times return. •With the acquisition of Vodafone’s Japan operations (Vodafone KK) SoftBank has emerged as the third major telecommunications group in Japan with aggressive expansion plans. More recently, SoftBank has invested in Willcom’s next-generation network part, bringing Willcom also into the SoftBank Group, acquired eAccess/eMobile, and SPRINT. •SoftBank’s particular strengths are:

•Chairman and Founder Masayoshi Son’s entrepreneurial and management skills and quick action •The strengths of YAHOO!-Japan as a content and transaction internet portal •Strong cooperations with Japan’s electrical retailers •Strong position and subscriber base in fixed line Broadband services •A Full IP network •A range of media and content properties •A strong position in China’s internet and mobile sector: e.g. via Alibaba •Gained exclusive distribution rights for iPhone and iPad and took the lead in the exploding Smartphone sector •Gained control of the Willcom group, which came under bankruptcy protection, of eAccess/eMobile, and in the process of acquiring SPRINT.

•Financially, SoftBank has recently overtaken KDDI in operating profits, and is aiming for YEN 1 Trillion (US$ 11 Billion) in operating profits by FY2016.



AGENDA - LIST OF CONTENTS

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•Executive Summary •SoftBank “setting Japan’s telecom sector on fire” •SoftBank overview •Masayoshi Son •Softbank - 30 year vision and DNA for growth during the next 300 years

•30 year vision •Values

•The time-machine company, investments •overview of major investments, and investment results, ROI

•Group structure, business segments •Acquisitions

•eAccess/eMobile •Willcom (bankruptcy administration) •Wireless City Planning

•Financials: annual and quarterly sales, operational and net profits, investments, ARPU •SoftBank Mobile

•Spectrum licenses •base station, deployment for different spectrum bands, repeaters and boosters •Market position: ARPU, market share, market share growth, the number portability battle •Prepaid market •Positioning the new consumer brand

•Softbank, Yahoo BB and the DSL market •Telegram market •Summary



SOFTBANK-OVERVIEW

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Softbank

Founded September 3, 1981

Founder Masayoshi Son

Headquarters Tokyo, Shiodome

Stock Exchange Tokyo TSE 9984 (IPO: July 22, 1994)

Consolidated sales YEN 3378.3 Billion (US$ 33 Billion) (FY2013, ended March 31, 2014)

Number of employees 24,598, consolidated (March 2014), (150 subsidiary companies)

Major share holders Masayoshi Son (20.92%)

Major business areas fixed and mobile/wireless communications and data services, IT and internet investments, content, games



SOFTBANK-30 YEAR VISION AND DNA

FOR GROWTH DURING THE NEXT 300 YEARS

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SOFTBANK-THE TIME-MACHINE

COMPANY

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SOFTBANK GROUP STRUCTURE AND

CHARACTERISTICS

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SOFTBANK-ACQUISITIONS

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EACCESS/EMOBILE ACQUISITION

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For more detail about eAccess/eMobile - see: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/emobile/


http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/emobile/


WILLCOM

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Willcom

Founded Oct. 1, 1990: founded as DDI-Pocket (80.93% KDDI, 13.25% Kyocera) 2004 spun out of KDDI, and renamed Willcom

Founder

Headquarters Tokyo

Stock Exchange -

Consolidated sales YEN 254.6 Billion (US$ 2.9 Billion) (March 2008, rehabilitation application)

Number of employees 1038 (March 31, 2008)

Major share holders under corporate rehabilitation under Softbank sponsorship

Major business areas mobile communications based on PHS network



WIRELESS CITY PLANNING

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FINANCIALS

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SOFTBANK FINANCE

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•On March 17, 2006, SoftBank announced the acquisition of Vodafone KK (Vodafone’s Japan business). Most of the acquisition was financed by a US$ 15 Billion loan to the SoftBank group by a consortium of national and international banks (the precise value of the loan is difficult to determine, since the loan conditions are fairly complex). •SoftBank’s financial situation is largely determined by SoftBank’s ability to fulfill all conditions linked to the loan, and to repay the loan out of business cash flow according to schedules or faster. •SoftBank’s turnround of the mobile business acquired from Vodafone is successful, and based on the successful turnround, SoftBank is currently in the process of acquiring SPRINT. •SoftBank reports that several business sections have been “securitized”, ie the corresponding cash flows have been converted into financial securities. Examples are the base of handsets purchased by customers in installment plans, where SoftBank pays the purchase price to handset suppliers and then is repaid over 12 or 24 months in regular monthly installments by customers together with their monthly bills.



NET INCOME

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• NTT-docomo’s net income has been stationary since 2007, while KDDI’s net income has been increasing moderately

• Softbank’s net income increased rapidly after Softbank’s adoption of the iPhone in 2008, and overtook KDDI’s net income in FY2011

• If trends continue, Softbank is bound to overtake NTT-docomo in terms of net income, especially of Softbank’s takeover of SPRINT is successful.

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iPhoneSoftBankJuly 11, 2008

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iPhone 5Softbank"KDDISept 21, 2012"c#20

13EurotechnologyJapanKK

www.eurotechnology.com



QUARTERLY FINANCIAL RESULTS

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NET INCOME

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• SoftBank’s net income (after tax) is positive since the July-September 2005 quarter. SoftBank’s net income was held back by servicing the substantial debt from the Vodafone-Japan acquisition. With the introduction of iPhone on July 11, 2008, and with the pay-down of the debt from the Vodafone-Japan acquisition, Softbank’s net income is increasing steadily, and expected to overtake NTT-docomo’s.

• Back in 2005-2007 NTT-docomo’s net income was continuously falling, and NTT-docomo o risked to fall into losses. NTT-docomo succeeded to stabilize the net-income situation via cost-cuts (including equipment costs), as well as increasing profitability via additional services.

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SoftBankVodafone!Japan

US$ 1 Billion

US$ 2 Billion"c#20



iPhone 5Softbank"KDDISept 21, 2012



SOFTBANK MOBILE

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SOFTBANK MOBILE

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Four commitments (to turn round the former Vodafone KK, since October 2006: SoftBank-Mobile): 1.3G Network enhancement

•Decided on investments to install more 3G base stations than DoCoMo has 2.3G Handset enrichment

•Roll out 13 new terminals (announced Sept 29, 2006) 3.Content enhancement

•Disney/Pixar agreement, Yahoo!-keitai 4.Enhancement of sales structure and branding

•invested and improved shops



SPECTRUM LICENSES AND BASE STATIONS

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HOW MANY REPEATERS AND BOOSTERS DOES SOFTBANK USE?

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•End 2006, SoftBank started to roll-out about 120,000 boosters and repeaters to improve coverage. •With the ramp-up of true base stations, SoftBank is rolling back the number of repeaters and boosters

Jul 2006 Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 20100

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100000

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Cellular boosters, repeaters, IMCSs in Japan

!c"2010EurotechnologyJapanKK


DoCoMo

KDDI#AU

SoftBank!3G

eMobile



MVNO BUSINESS

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SOFTBANK MOBILE’S MARKET SHARE AND MARKET POSITION IN JAPAN

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MARKET SHARES

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Three groups are active in Japan’s mobile communications sector - showing that growth of marketshare for Softbank in Japan is painstaking low slow, which motivated Softbank’s acquisition of Sprint in USA, and its aim to acquire T-Mobile-USA: •DoCoMo (market share: 40.8% of subscriptions, reduced from 40.8% in February 2013) •KDDI (including UQ: market share: 28.9%, grown from 28.7% in February 2013) •Softbank (including eMobile, Willcom, Wireless City Planning: 30.3% grown from 29.3 in Feb 2013).

DoCoMo !42.0!"

KDDI !" UQ # 28.7!"

UQ

SoftBank !"eM"Willc"WSP # 29.3!"eMobileWillc.

WSP

Mobile Operator group market shares !April 30, 2013"

DoCoMo !40.8!"

KDDI !" UQ # 28.9!"

UQ

SoftBank !"eM"Willc"WSP # 30.3!"eMobileWillc.

WSP

Mobile Operator group market shares !February 28, 2014"



MONTH-TO-MONTH BATTLE FOR SUBSCRIBERS

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•Since 2010, Softbank has been continuously gaining market share of subscriber numbers, while DoCoMo and KDDI (except for WiMax operators UQ) have been losing market share. •positive numbers in this figure mean growth of market share, negative figures (as for DoCoMo) mean loss of market share

Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan 2015!0.004

!0.003

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"c#2014EurotechnologyJapanKK




THE PREPAID MARKET

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JAPAN’S PREPAID MOBILE PHONE MARKET

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Softbank has the largest share of the very small and shrinking prepay market in Japan. This is a legacy of Vodafone KK, which had placed great priority on growing the prepaid market in Japan (which very limited success as shown above).

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

500000

1 000000

1 500000

2000000subscriptions

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SoftBank

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NUMBER PORTABILITY BATTLE

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POSITIONING THE NEW SOFTBANK BRAND FOR

MOBILE COMMUNICATIONS

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SOFTBANK AND YAHOO!-JAPAN

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SOFTBANK, YAHOO BB IN THE DSL MARKET

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DSL MARKET

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Mar 2006 Mar 2007 Mar 2008 Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 20120

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DSL market shares in Japan !!"

SoftBank !38.8!"

eAccess !23.6!"NTT East !16.9!"NTT West !17.7!"

Other !3!"!c"20



Source: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jcomm/


http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/jcomm/


JAPAN’S TELEGRAM MARKET

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JAPAN’S TELEGRAM MARKET

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•Japan’s telegram market has been decreasing but still has a size of approximately YEN 52 Billion (= approx. US$ 500 Million)

•Telegrams in Japan are sent mainly by businesses for congratulations, condolences, to debtors or for other urgent communications where correspondents cannot be reached by phone, and for personal congratulations at weddings etc.

•Until April 2003, Japan’s telegram market was a 100% monopoly of NTT (= Nippon Telegraph Telephone), and still today NTT has about 90% of the telegraph market

•Currently there are about 12 companies offering competing telegraph services, among them KDDI, and Softbank (from 2009/2010).

•Telegrams are often sent through the special 115 number, which is currently operated by NTT. The Ministry is considering to open 115 service to competitors of NTT, such as Softbank.



SOFTBANK ENERGY

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for an detailed report and analysis of Japan’s renewable energy sector see: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/


http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/j_renewable/


SUMMARY

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SUMMARY- SOFTBANK

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•SoftBank is primarily an internet and telecommunications investment company led by the charismatic Masayoshi Son, following a “Time-Machine” principle: SoftBank invested in US internet companies (especially YAHOO) in the 1990s, subsequently in Japanese internet companies in the 2000s, and currently in Chinese internet companies, thus aiming to profit from the time lag in internet development between US, Japan and China. •More recently, based on the successful acquisition and turn-round of Vodafone-Japan, SoftBank acquired the US operator SPRINT, and aims to become the No. 1 telecom operator globally, and is now aiming to acquire T-Mobile-USA. •SoftBank invested about YEN 301.9 Billion (US$ 3 Billion) following this “time machine” theme. These investments are currently valued around YEN 2834.1 Billion (US$ 28 Billion), ie SoftBank achieved an average 9-times return. •With the acquisition of Vodafone’s Japan operations (Vodafone KK) SoftBank has emerged as the third major telecommunications group in Japan with aggressive expansion plans. More recently, SoftBank has invested in Willcom’s next-generation network part, bringing Willcom also into the SoftBank Group, acquired eAccess/eMobile, and SPRINT. •SoftBank’s particular strengths are:

•Chairman and Founder Masayoshi Son’s entrepreneurial and management skills and quick action •The strengths of YAHOO!-Japan as a content and transaction internet portal •Strong cooperations with Japan’s electrical retailers •Strong position and subscriber base in fixed line Broadband services •A Full IP network •A range of media and content properties •A strong position in China’s internet and mobile sector: e.g. via Alibaba •Gained exclusive distribution rights for iPhone and iPad and took the lead in the exploding Smartphone sector •Gained control of the Willcom group, which came under bankruptcy protection, of eAccess/eMobile, and in the process of acquiring SPRINT.

•Financially, SoftBank has recently overtaken KDDI in operating profits, and is aiming for YEN 1 Trillion (US$ 11 Billion) in operating profits by FY2016.



EUROTECHNOLOGY JAPAN KK

115



EUROTECHNOLOGY JAPAN KK FOUNDED: FEBRUARY 1997 IN TOKYO

116

Services and products - focus areas are high-technology, telecommunications, software, middle-ware, environmental technology and medical equipment: !- Market entry to Japan for European and US high-tech companies, turn-round, reshaping, planning

and building of distribution networks - European business development and strategy for Japanese companies - M&A (European and US companies acquiring Japanese companies, Japanese companies acquiring or

investing in Europe) - Turn-round preparations and management of foreign business in Japan - Market research and strategy - Due diligence of high-tech companies, environmental due-diligence - Advisory services for investment fund managers and investors in technology fields !

- we publish a series of market reports for about 10 years, which are purchased world-wide, distributed direct and via distribution partners: http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/


http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/


EUROTECHNOLOGY JAPAN KK

117

- Leading high-technology business development boutique in Tokyo, working globally - Founded in 1996/1997 - 14 years experience, relationships, cooperations and success record. - CEO works with Japan’s high-tech / telecom sector since 1984 - 27 years experience, resources,

cooperations. - Wide network of cooperations in Governments, Embassies, trading companies, distributors, finance,

VCs, traditional corporations, venture start-ups, industry associations - Experience: market-entry, restructuring, M&A, acquisitions, due-diligence !Customers include: - More than 100 investment fund managers - Industrial customers:

- NTT-Communications, SIEMENS, Deutsche Telekom, Cubic, Unaxis (now: Oerlikon), CITI Group, CLSA Asian Markets, Genscape, Google, IKEA, Isabellenhuette, Landis+Gyr, National Instruments, Swisscom, TechnoCom,

- Government - New York Police Department, European Union, TEKES (Technology Research funding

organization of the Government of Finland) !Deep Japanese technology market knowledge - we publish a series of market reports for about 10 years, which are purchased world-wide. You can purchase our reports on Bloomberg: https://www.bmart.com/search?&nuts%5B%5D=WIRE%3AEUT, and via eSellerate: http://store.eSellerate.net/s.aspx?s=STR0576176470 and from http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/


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GERHARD FASOL PROFILE: HTTP://WWW.FASOL.COM/PROFILE/

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- Worked successfully with Japan’s high-tech sector since 1984 - 27 years. Came first to Japan in 1984 to help build NTT’s first international R&D cooperation on semiconductor lasers

- Entrepreneur in Tokyo since 1996, Eurotechnology Japan KK worked with many large corporate groups (e.g. SIEMENS, NTT, Deutsche Telekom, Asahi Glass...), more than 100 investment fund managers

- Assoc. Professor of Electrical Engineering at Tokyo University. Record of Fasol-Laboratory at Tokyo University: http://www.fasol.com/tokyo_university/

- Elite “Sakigake” (Pioneer) R&D project on Spin-Electronics of Japanese Government Science and Technology Agency. This work was evaluated by US National Science Foundation and US Department of Trade: http://www.wtec.org/loyola/erato/ch7_5.htm

- Co-initiator of spin-electronics device research in Japan, one of the first to start work on spin-electronics in Japan in 1991

- Tenured Faculty member at Cavendish Laboratory/University of Cambridge. - Assoc. Professor of Electrical Engineering at Tokyo University - PhD in Solid-State Physics (Cambridge University, Trinity College, UK) - Diplom-Physiker, Ruhr-University Bochum (Diplom-Thesis on Superconductivity) - Publication list (Books, patents and publications, several publications are specifially concerning

electron-spin and spin-electronics): http://www.fasol.com/profile/publications.shtml - Languages: English, German (native), French, Japanese, and some Swedish


http://www.fasol.com/profile/

http://www.fasol.com/tokyo_university/

http://www.wtec.org/loyola/erato/ch7_5.htm

http://www.fasol.com/profile/publications.shtml


GERHARD FASOL WITH TETSUZO MATSUMOTO, EXEC VP OF SOFTBANK MOBILE CORPORATION

119



“POST GALAPAGOS STUDY GROUP” 25 JAPANESE LEADERS + 1 FOREIGNER (GERHARD FASOL) WORKING FOR ONE YEAR ON CONCEPTS TO OVERCOME JAPAN’S “GALAPAGOS EFFECT”

120

see: http://accjjournal.com/the-galapagos-effect/


http://accjjournal.com/the-galapagos-effect/


“POST GALAPAGOS STUDY GROUP” 25 JAPANESE LEADERS + 1 FOREIGNER (GERHARD FASOL) WORKING FOR ONE YEAR ON CONCEPTS TO OVERCOME JAPAN’S “GALAPAGOS EFFECT”

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see: http://accjjournal.com/the-galapagos-effect/


http://accjjournal.com/the-galapagos-effect/


CONTACT AND MORE INFORMATION

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Contact •Gerhard Fasol PhD •Eurotechnology Japan KK, Tokyo, Japan •http://www.eurotechnology.com/ •Mobile +81-90-8594-6291 •[email protected] •[email protected] !More information: •reports:http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/ •twitter : http://twitter.com/gfasol/ •website: http://www.eurotechnology.com/ •personal site: http://fasol.com





http://www.eurotechnology.com/store/mpay_collection/

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Softbank research report 01

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