Socio-Economic Trends€¦ · Unofficial translation Page - 2 - Executive summary 1. In the first 2...

Unofficial translation Page - 1 -

Socio-Economic Trends

January-February 2019

Contents

Page

Executive summary 1

1. Cambodia economic trends 3

1.1. Consumer price index 3

1.2. Finance 3

1.3. Trade 4

1.4. Budget execution 7

1.5. Private investment 8

1.6. Tourism 11

1.7. Construction 13

2. International commodity prices 14

2.1. Crude oil price: Brent, WTI, Dubai 14

2.2. Rice price: 5%, 25%, 100% broken 15

2.3. Rubber price: TSR20, RSS3 16

3. Appendix 17


Executive summary

1. In the first 2 months of 2020, Cambodian total export value1 amounted to USD 2,563 million (6.9% of

GDP2), increased by 24.2% (compared to the first 2 months of 2019) – higher than the growth rate in the

same period last year which was only 13.7%. This high growth rate was reflected through the achievement

in high growth rate of key exporting products, especially garments and footwears, rices, and bicycles. On

the other hand, Cambodian total import value amounted to USD 3,623 million (13.5% of GDP), increased

by 22.1% which was higher than the same period last year growth – having the growth rate of 17%.

Although the total import value achieved a high growth rate, the import value of major products, which

used to be quite high, was in a declining growth especially vehicles and gasoline, and some others with a

negative growth especially textiles and construction materials.

2. In the first 2 months of 2020, Council for Development of Cambodia (CDC)3 has approved 36 private

investment projects (excluding SEZs), decreased by 10 projects and the total investment value was

USD 884 million, decreased by -52.4% compared to same period last year. Among the 36 projects,

32 were invested in the industry sector (6 are bags and 12 are garments), 2 were in tourism sector

and the other 2 were in service sector. In these 2 months, the data indicated a progress of investment

diversification achievement through the investment projects in the various sectors besides garments

such as electronic, foods processing, construction materials, car assembly, and packaging. During

the widespread infection of the COVID-19, apart from investment promotion, relevant agencies must

ensure a survival of all employees (getting basic salary while companies temporarily close down)

and companies (a guarantee of access to cash-flow, cost and credit).

3. In the first 2 months of 2020, the total number of international tourist arrivals was only 932 thousand,

decreased by -25.1% compared to same period last year. Among the total number, Chinese tourist

accounted for 192 thousand or 20.6% (decreased by -54.2%), Vietnam 15.4% (increased by 15.8%),

Thailand 11.7% (increased by 57.5%) and others including Laos, South Korea, US, Japan, Malaysia,

France and UK. On the negative growth of -25.1% (total tourists declining rate), Chinese tourist

arrivals had -18.2% contribution to decline because the number of international tourist arrival in

Cambodia was heavily dependent on Chinese tourists. It can be noted that international tourist arrival

by air declined by -35.6%, of which the number of international tourist arrival via Phnom Penh

International Airport, Siem Reap International Airport and Kong Keng International Airport declined

1 Preliminary data from General Department of Customs and Excise (Admin Data) received on 17th March 2020 2 GDP at current price Million USD = USD 26,714 million and 24 374 for 2019 and 2018 respectively (Macroeconomic Framework adjusted

for the March framework based on the half year data of 2019) 3 The private investment projects, excluding SEZ, which were approved by CDC


by -21.1%, -45.6% and -53.0% respectively. Thus, the number of international tourists purchasing

Angkor Wat Pass Ticket rapidly dropped by -37.3% and revenue from selling Angkor Wat Pass

Ticket also declined by -35.4%4. The decline was due to the widespread infection of COVID-19

globally pushing a travel restriction/constraint both locally and internationally.

4. In first 2 months of 2020, the total numbers of construction proposals were 728 projects, increased by 168

projects; the total areas were 4.2 million square meters, increased by 33.9%; and the total value was USD

1.99 billion, increased by 46.8% compared to the same period last year. As the observation, this growth was

contributed by a strong growth of housing construction while the RGC decided to waive the stamp tax for

home-buyers who buying a house from developers with the price lower than USD 70,000 for one year

(February 2020 to January 2021) which registered with either the Ministry of Economy and Finance or

Provincial Department of Economy and Finance. Meanwhile, as a measure to cope with the affected of

widespread infection of COVID-19, the National Bank of Cambodia laid out the “Loan Restructuring”

measure for 4 key prioritized sectors, of which construction sector was also included (only applicable for

first time housing/shop construction and first time housing loan).

5. Consumer Price Index5 in February 2020 increased by 2.6% compared to the same period in the previous

year, of which 1) foods and non-alcoholic beverages index increaed 3.2% especially food product groups

such as bread and grain, rice, meat and fresh fish; 2) transporation price index increased by 3.0% due to the

increasing price of petroleum; and 3) restaurant price index increased by 4.3%.

6. In first 2 months of 2020, the budgetary central government achieved the total domestic revenue amounting

to KHR 3,570.15 billion or equivalent to 14.82% of the Budget Law 2020, increased by 22.66% compared

to the same period last year. The growth was attributed to the increase of non-tax revnue (14.54%) and

indirect tax (8.42%). Meanwhile, the total expenditure was KHR 3,040.29% or equivalent to 10.14% of

the Budget Law 2020, increased by 33.67%. As a result, as of February 2020, the current budget balance

achieved the surplus of KHR 1,144.72 billion, and the overal budget balance achieved the surplus of KHR

529.86 billion.

7. In February 2020, the price of petroleum and diesel on Cambodian market as well as the price of crude oil

on the international market were declined compared to the last month price. At the same time, the price of

Jasmin rice and Neang Minh rice on Cambodian market as well as the price of rice on the international

market slightly fluctuated. Meanwhile, the price of a dry family rubber increased while the price of Thai

rubber TSR20 and RSS3 declined.

4 Data from Angkor Enterprise on 1st March 2020 5 Official data from the National Institute of Statistic


៣. ឧបសម្ពន័្ធ

១. និ្ន្នា ការសសដ្ឋកិច្ចកម្ពុជា / Cambodia economic trends

១.១. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសន្ទសសន៍្ថ្លៃទំនិ្ញស្បើ្ាស់ / Consumer price index

១.២. ិ សស័ពាណិជិកកម្ / Trade

ប្រភព៖ វិ ទ្យាស្ថាន ជាតិស្ថន សិ្ ស្

Source: National Institute of Statistics (NIS)

6.3%

24.9%

8.2%

20.7%

5.9%

33.8%

ចំណែកាផី្សារអាមេរទ្យកវមៅណិរជាតឈរលដំារា់ី ១វ

កនុងការជរំញុភាពលូិ លាថន់ជាការនំមចញថររុររថក់េពតុ

អាា៊ា ជា

អឺរ ុរវ(២៧)

ជរ ុជា

មផ្សេងៗ

អង់មលេថ

អាមេរទ្យក

41

.6%

7.6

% 18

.4%

20

.7%

-3.0

%

38

.9%51

.5%

11

.8%

15

.9%

12

.0%

4.5

%

48

.0%

ការនំមចញផ្សលសិ្ ផ្សលវាយជាភែឌ មៅកាជាា់ផី្សារថវំខាជា់ៗ មៅណិអាច

រកាបាជាអប្ាកមំែើជារងឹមវំពស្មថថមៅាផី្សារអាមេវរទ្យកវជាស្ងអរឺ រុ

កំមែើជាវ២០១៩វ(២ណែ) កំមែើជាវ២០២០វ(២ណែ)

ប្រភព៖ អលគនយកដាា ជាលយជាស្ងរដាា ករកេពុត,វប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ

Source: General department of Custom and Excise (GDCE), MEF


-6.7%

52.8%

-3.4% -10.5%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

២០១៧វ

(២ណែ)

២០១៨វវ

(២ណែ)

២០១៩វវ

(២ណែ)

២០២០វ

(២ណែ)

លាជាដ្លាេរ

ាឹកប្បាកនំ់ចលូប្កណាិម់ៅណិរជាតធ្លេ កច់ុុះលរួឱ្យកិថ់មគ លវ់

លស្ិប្ិេឹរយៈមពលវ២ណែវឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះ

ប្កណាិវ់(ិនេេលសិ្ ពជាធ) កំមែើជា

36.9%

60.3%

-13.5%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

30

60

90

120

150

២០១៨វវ

(២ណែ)

២០១៩វវ

(២ណែ)

២០២០វ

(២ណែ)


ការនំចលូណដ្កវជាស្ងថមា រថែំងម់ផ្សេងៗវមៅណិរជាតថមថេថមថយវ

ជាស្ងធ្លេ កច់ុុះកមំែើជាែពថល់រួឱ្យកិថ់មគ ល់

ថុីេ ងិ៍ ណដ្ក

ថមា រថែំងម់ផ្សេងៗ កំមែើជាវ(ថររុ)

16.6%

45.8%

16.5%

0%

20%

40%

60%

-

100

200

300

400

២០១៨វវ

(២ណែ)

២០១៩វវ

(២ណែ)

២០២០វ

(២ណែ)


ាឹកប្បាកនំ់ចលូរថមថយជាតមៅណិរជាតថមថេថមថយកមំែើជាវវ

តពស្មថថរថមថយជាតមាថចរែ៍វជាស្ងដ្កឹជញ្ជូជា

េ ូិូ រថមថយជាតប្កងុ រថមថយជាតមាថចរែ៍

រថមថយជាតមផ្សេងៗ ប្ាកា់រ័ រថមថយជាតដ្កឹាជំាស្ញ

កំមែើជា

ការនំចលូមប្រងឥជាធជាៈប្លរប់្រមភាមៅណិមជាជាស្នន ការថមថេថមថយ

កំមែើជាលសិ្ ប្ិេឹរយៈមពលវ២ណែវឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះ

កំមែើជាវ២០១៩វវ(២ណែ) កំមែើជាវ២០២០វ(២ណែ)

ប្រភព៖ អលគនយកដាា ជាលយជាស្ងរដាា ករកេពុត,វប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ

Source: General department of Custom and Excise (GDCE), MEF


១.៣. ស្ថា ន្ភាពការអនុ្ិត្តលិសការដ្ឋ / Budget execution

ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមថដ្ាកស្ចចវជាស្ងហស្រញ្ញិ ិន ុ

Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF)


១.៤. ស្ថា ន្ភាពិសនិ្សោគ / Investment

-67.2%

1082.2%

-87.4%51.3%

951.9%

-52.4%

-500.0%

0.0%

500.0%

1,000.0%

1,500.0%

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០២០


កំមែើជាាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលថររុមដ្ើេឆ្ន ំ២០២០ធ្លេ ក់ចុុះវមដាយារការមបាុះាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលដ្ល៏ហំកុមលើ

េជឈេែឌ លមាចរែក៍ាលពណីែកេុាៈឆ្ន ំ២០១៩

កថស្កេម ថាេពល ឧថាហកេម មថវាកេម មាថចរែ៍ កំមែើជា

-45.6%

64.0%

-7.6%-45.4%

361.8%

-61.3%-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០២០

ពាជា់នក់

ម ុះរតីិទ្យថយ័មថវាកេមាាលួបាជាាជុាិទ្យជាស្មោលមប្ចើជាតងមលមៅមដ្ើេឆ្ន ំ២០២០មជាុះវិទ្យថយ័ឧថាហកេម

រមងកើិ ការងារបាជាមប្ចើជាតងមល

កថស្កេម ថាេពល ឧថាហកេម មថវាកេម មាថចរែ៍ កំមែើជា

ប្រភព៖ ប្កុេប្រឹកាអភស្ិឌ្ឍជា៍កេពុត

Source: The Council for Development of Cambodia (CDC)


១.៥. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសទសច្រិ៍ / Tourism

១.៦. ស្ថា ន្ភាពសំិ ង ់/ Construction

0.0%

-47.7%

14.2%

114.0%

9.3%

-25.1%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៥

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៦

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៧

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៨

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០១៩

២ណែ

ឆ្ន ំ២០២០

ពាជា់នក់

ចំជាជួាមភញៀិមាថចរអជាតរតិស្ថររុបាជាធ្លេ កច់ុុះវ-២៥,១% ម ៀរជាងឹឆ្ន ំេជុាាជាទេឹជាងឹការរកីរាលវដាល

កាជា់ណិខាេ ំងម ើងនជាិរីថុកូិដី្១៩មៅា ូងំពស្ភពមលាក

ចស្ជាវ មិៀិណាេវ ឡាិវ នថមថវ កូមរ វ អាមេរទ្យកវ

ជរ ុជាវ បារាងំវ អង់មលេថវ មផ្សេងៗវ អប្ាកំមែើជាវ

ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមាថចរែ៍

Source: Ministry of Tourism

ប្រភព៖ ប្កថួងមរៀរចំណដ្ជាដី្វជាលរូរជាយីកេមវជាស្ងថំែង់

Source: Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction


២. ន្ិន្នា ការថ្លៃទំន្ញិសខំាន្់ៗ / Commodity prices

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧

កញ្ញញ-១៧

វិទ្យ ចិស្កា

-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨

កញ្ញញ-១៨


-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩

កញ្ញញ-១៩


-១៩

េករា

-២០

មរៀល

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមប្រងាងំ ជាស្ងមប្រងម ថ៊ាូិ មលើាីផ្សារកេពុត

ាងំ េមាវ(EA 92) ម ថ៊ាូិ វ(DO 0.05%)

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧



-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨



-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩



-១៩

េករា

-២០

ដ្លាេរ

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមប្រងមៅមលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្

Brent WTI

ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងពាែស្ជជកេម

Source: Ministry of Commerce

ប្រភព៖វ នគារពស្ភពមលាកវ(Pink Sheet)

Source: World bank (Pink Sheet)


1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧



-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨



-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩



-១៩

េករា

-២០

មរៀល

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេអងករមលើាីផ្សារកេពុត

អងករផ្កក េេស្ុះ អងករផ្កក ែញី អងករនងេស្ញ

300

350

400

450

500

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧



-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨



-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩



-១៩

េករា

-២០

ដ្លាេរ

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេអងករបាក៥់%មលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្

អងករនថមថ អងករមិៀិណាេ

ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងពាែស្ជជកេម

Source: Ministry of Commerce

ប្រភព៖វ នគារពស្ភពមលាកវ(Pink Sheet)

Source: World bank (Pink Sheet)


1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧



-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨



-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩



-១៩

េករា

-២០

ដ្លាេរ

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមៅថ៊ាថូតងដ់ារមលើាផី្សារអជាតរតិស្

មៅថ៊ាូវTSR20 (ដុ្លាេ រ/មាជា) មៅថ៊ាូវRSS3 (ដុ្លាេ រ/មាជា)

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

េករា

-១៧

េីន

-១៧

ឧថភា

-១៧

កកកដា

-១៧



-១៧

េករា

-១៨

េីន

-១៨

ឧថភា

-១៨

កកកដា

-១៨



-១៨

េករា

-១៩

េីន

-១៩

ឧថភា

-១៩

កកកដា

-១៩



-១៩

េករា

-២០

មរៀល

ជាស្នន ការនថមថេមៅថ៊ាបូ្លាួរជរ័មៅថ៊ាថូងួ ិវមលើាីផ្សារកេពុត

ប្រភព៖វប្កថួងកថស្កេមវរុកាា ប្រមញវ់ជាស្ងមជាាា

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries

Source៖វAssociation of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC)


*************

Prepared by Statistics and Economic Analysis Department

General Department of Policy

Ministry of Economy and Finance

Contacts:

Desk Number: 023 427 913; H/P: 077 88 99 92 / 077 59 99 03 / 098 22 84 94

Working Hours: 7:00 AM - 11:00 AM, and 14:00 PM - 17:00 PM

Noted:

The responsibility for opinions expressed in this publication rests solely with the working team of the General

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The publication does not constitute an endorsement by Ministry of Economy and Finance or Royal Government of

Cambodia.

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