Socio-economic scenarios to develop and test agricultural adaptation policies in the Andes and...
-
Upload
marieke-veeger -
Category
Science
-
view
111 -
download
1
Transcript of Socio-economic scenarios to develop and test agricultural adaptation policies in the Andes and...
A multi-stakeholder scenarios approach with multiple plausible, narrative
and numerical, stories about future contexts can help policy makers work
with future uncertainty that may influence adaptive capacity in their re-
gions. However, in many scenarios processes, it is not clear whether the
scenarios have had an impact on decision-making.
Socio-economic scenarios to develop and test agriculturaladaptation policies in the Andes and Central America
Introduction Participatory regionalscenario development
Quantification of scenarios
Stakeholders and decision makers from the public and private sectorincluding research organizations create a set of multiple regionalscenarios (in this case for Central America and the Andes)
How can we guarantee a successful use of scenarios for targeted policy guidance?
In the case of Honduras and Colombia we started with a draft version of
a plan, stakeholders developed the scenarios; tested the plan across sce-
narios and made recommendations for a more robust plan
Figure 1: A draft version of a plan or policy is tested and improved
through scenarios (Joost Vervoort, 2014)
Scenarios use for policy and investment guidance
Draf Plan Develop scenarios Test planin scenarios
Robust Plan
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.Action plan for the Climate Adaptation Strategy for Agriculture and Livestock.
1. Scenarios are most powerful when they are used to test and develop specific decision pathways, such as government policies and action plans.
2. Develop a strong relationship withdecision-makers to build trust and identify draftpolicies and information needs.
3. Tailored scenarios are used directly withstakeholders: A multidisciplinary and multilevel team of experts and decision makers reviews, develops andadjusts the policies up to their finest details.
4. It requires openness and flexibility on the side of the decision-makers and the facilitating researchers to put changed policies into action.
How can we make sure that scenarios have an impact on
decision-making thatencourages Climate Smart
Agriculture?
Secretariat of Agriculture and Livestock (SAG).Strategy for risk management and climate change adaptation (2015-2019) for the sector of agriculture and livestock.
The CCAFS scenario exercise resulted in the integration of a completely new strategic focus, 4 other new elements and
multiple other improvements on activity level. The strategy is now being implemented.
Main elements of the scenario exercise
Decision makers tailored the regional scenarios for Central America to
Honduras´ context and received regional model results that were of
interest
Tested the robustness of the strategy in multiple future scenarios: What
are main barriers and enabling factors that should be taken into
account? What strategies are robust enough to succeed in several future
scenarios?
Set up recommendations to improve the effectiveness of the strategies´
milestones, objectives and action points
Impact of the scenario exercise
An entirely new strategic objective within the strategy; focused on
training for farmers in adaptation measures in increase production
capacity
Other elements that were added to the strategy were the improvement
of agro-climatic information systems; early warning systems; and land
use planning
Its original focus on stimulating aquaculture production was expanded
to other types of livestock
CASE Honduras CASE Colombia
Figure 2: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), define five possible paths that human societies could follow over the next century (Palazzo A et al, 2014). Each of the regional CCAFS scenarios is compared and then linked to an SSP: New Maya collapse; Freedom fighters without freedom; 14 Baktun, the beginning of the Mayan prophecy; Crowded.
Future scenarios in the face of climate change
International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodi-ties and Trade (IMPACT) of the International Food Policy Research Insti-tute (IFPRI) model is designed to examine alternative futures for global food supply, demand, trade, prices, and food security (Rosegrant et al, 2012) .
Each of the regional CCAFS scenarios is compared and then linked to one of the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the new global scenarios
developed by the IPCC-related research community, of which each have adifferent impact on the radiative forcing levels that define climate change
(O´Neill et al, 2014)
Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) created byInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is used to analyze the competition for land use between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy, which are the main land-based production sectors (Havlík et
Soci
o-e
con
om
icch
alle
ng
es f
or
mit
igat
ion
Socio-economic challengesfor adaptation
SSP 5:
SSP 2:
SSP 1:
(Mit. Challenges Dominate)ConventionalDevelopment
(Intermediate Challenges)Middle of the Road
SSP 3: (High Challenges)
Fragmentation
(Low Challenges)Sustainability
SSP 4: (Adapt. Challenges Dominate)
Inequality
Baktun14
Freedomfighters without
freedom
Crowded
New MayaCollapse
The stakeholder generated scenarios are quantified using two agricul-tural economic models, each with different assumptions; GLOBIOM (Havlik et al, 2014) and IMPACT (Rosegrant and Team 2014) .
The stakeholder generated scenarios are quantified using two agricul-tural economic models, each with different assumptions; GLOBIOM (Havlik et al, 2014) and IMPACT (Rosegrant and Team 2014) .
To provide inputs for this quantification, drivers like population, GDP,tecnology, impacts on yields, farm input costs and others are evaluated for each scenario, in terms of scenario logic, direction of change and volatility. These semi-quantitative results are then linked to the global Shared-Socio-economic Pathways (O´Neill et al, 2014).
A set of four socioeconomic, environmental and climatescenarios for the Andes region was created in 2013 by experts and decision makers from Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia that work in agriculture, livelihoods and environment. Theinitiative took place in collaboration with the United NationsEnvironment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC).Quantified model results were used to create land use in maps of the region that show changes in biodiversity, ecosystem services in the scenarios.
A draft version of the action plan for the Climate Adaptation Stra-tegy for Agriculture and Livestock was tested for robustness in each of the four regional scenarios. Recommendations of improvement were made by a multidisciplinary team of experts of each country. These will be presented to the Ministry of Planning and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in April 2015. The sectorial strategy is of priority for Colombia and thus will beapproved in 2015.
Amplify the scope of the strategy towards biodiversity andecosystem services in order to guarantee future food security.Include a section regarding territorial planning in order to guarantee future fertile land for agriculture. This in the light of future increase in urbanization. Several future scenarios show a shift in markets towards the Andes region. Therefore efforts should be made to strengthen the government’s international relations and south-south cooperation in the region.
Main recommendations of improvement
A set of four socioeconomic, environmental and climate scenarios for the Central America was created in 2013 by experts anddecision makers of Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama.
Detailed narratives are developed for each scenario
These are based on future factors of change that are relevant and un-certain for the scope of agriculture, food security, environment and liveli-hoods.
Authors: Marieke Veeger (University of International Cooperation, Costa Rica) and Joost Vervoort (Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom)