SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE:

GREATER KOKSTAD LOCAL MUNICIPALITY

KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Treasury

Economic Analysis Unit

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1 Introduction

This section presents analysis on the recent socio-economic outlook of the Greater Kokstad

Municipality (LM). It reviews the demographics, economy, labour, land cover and use, crime

and HIV and AIDS.

2 Demographic Profile

The KwaZulu-Natal Province has both, a growing and maturing population, presenting

opportunities and challenges to the province. According to Statistics South Africa (2008) and

Global Insight (2009), in 2008, the population size of KwaZulu Natal was an estimated 10,1

million people. The largest number of these people lived in eThekwini Metro (32.6%), followed

by uThungulu district (10.2%) and Umgungundlovu (10.0%), while Sisonke was the least

populated district municipality (4,0%). UMzinyathi district’s population size was estimated at

477,3 thousand people, or 47.1 percent of KwaZulu-Natal populace.

Within Sisonke District, the Greater Kokstad Municipality had one of the lowest population

numbers (69,8 thousand) which accounted for 14.7 percent of the district population.

Umzimkhulu (35.3 percent), Ubuhlebezwe (23.5 percent) and Ingwe municipalities (23.1

percent) had the highest population numbers (Fig 2.1).

Figure 2.1: Sisonke district population by local municipality, average 2002-2008

109,854

15,967

69,784

111,818

167,525

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Ingwe LM Kwa Sani LM Greater Kokstad LM Ubuhlebezwe LM Umzimkhulu LM

Ingwe LM, 23.1

Kwa Sani LM, 3.4

Greater Kokstad LM, 14.7Ubuhlebezwe

LM, 23.5

Umzimkhulu LM, 35.3

Source: Global Insight, 2009

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Between 2002 and 2008, the population distribution within Sisonke was 52.4 percent males and

47.6 percent females and dominantly in the 15-64 years age band, which makes up the working

age population (67.6 percent) (Figure 2.2).

Figure 2.2: Sisonke population pyramid, average 2002-2008

5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

00-04

05-09

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75+

Male Female

Source: Global Insight, 2009

3 The Economy

3.1 Gross domestic product per region (GDP-R)

The Sisonke district produced an average GDP-R of 2,2 bn between 2002 and 2008. Over the 7

year period under review, Greater Kokstad Municipality generated a GDP-R of R527,0 thousand,

and experienced real growth of 4.0 percent (Fig. 3.1).

Umzimkhulu (30.8 percent), Greater Kokstad (24.1 percent) and Ubuhlebezwe (21.4 percent)

made the highest contributions to the district GDP-R (Fig.3.2).

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Figure 3.1 LM’s GDP-R and real growth rate (constant 2000 prices-R1000), average 2002-2008

Ingwe, GDP-R 325,721,

Real growth 2.9%

Kwa Sani, GDP-R 191,835,

Real growth 3.8%

Greater Kokstad, GDP-R527,041, Real growth4.0%

Ubuhlebezwe, GDP-R 468,613, Real growth2.9%

Umzimkhulu, GDP-R672,985,

Real growth 2.7%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

Real

gro

wth

(%)

GDP-R

Source: Global Insight, 2009

Figure 3.2 LM’s contribution to Sisonke GDP-R, average 2002-2008

Ingwe, 14.9

Kwa Sani, 8.8

Greater Kokstad, 24.1

Ubuhlebezwe, 21.4

Umzimkhulu, 30.8

Source: Global Insight, 2009

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Figure 3.3 shows Sisonke’s GDP-R by economic sector between 2002 and 2008. The Agriculture

sector is a distinct economic driver in this district, contributing a share of 40.2 percent to the

LM’s GDP. Trade, Community Services and Finance contributed 19.5 percent, 16.4 percent and

13.1 percent respectively.

In terms of sectoral growth, Finance, Agriculture and Construction were leaders of the pack at

growth rates of 6.5 percent, 5.3 percent and 4,3 percent respectively (Fig. 3.3).

It seems Agriculture and Finance are the two sectors which should be concentrated on within this

LM as they are both growing sectors making reasonable contributions toward the LM’s GDP-R.

Figure 3.3: Sisonke GDP-R by sectors: 2002-2008

Agriculture

Manufacturing

Electricity

Construction

Trade

Transport

Finance

Community services

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

grow

th p

er se

ctor

GDP-R contribution per sector

Source: Global Insight, 2009

The GDP per capita in this region is very low and has been on a steady decline between 2002

and 2008, indicating a unhealthy economy which is growing at a slower pace than its population.

It declined from R7.90 in 2002 to R7.66 in 2008.

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4 Labour Market

4.1 Economically Active Population (EAP)

Between 2002 and 2008 the number of economically active population (EAP) in the district was

estimated at 74,245 of which 23,453 were in Greater Kokstad local municipality. As a proportion

of the population, the Kokstad municipality had the largest number of EAP at 33,6 per cent

followed by Kwa-Sani at 33.0 percent. Ingwe had the lowest EAP at 10.2 per cent. A steady

increase of the EAP in the area calls for continuous job creation (Figure 4.1).

Figure 4.1: EAP as a % of total population by municipality, Avg 2002-2008

15.6%

10.2%

33.0%33.6%

13.1%11.8%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Sisonke Ingwe Kwa Sani Greater Kokstad Ubuhlebezwe Umzimkhulu

Source: Global Insight

4.2 Unemployment

During the same period, the total number of unemployed people in the district was estimated at

24,778. Ingwe local municipality had the highest unemployment rate at 52.1 percent followed by

uMzimkhulu (50.8%) and Ubuhlebezwe(31.9%). The Greater Kokstad had the second lowest

unemployment rate (15.5%) above Kwa-Sani (12.6%). Whilst the unemployment remained fairly

low in Kokstad municipality when compared with other municipalities, more efforts need to be

put to decrease it even further.

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Figure 4.2: Greater Kokstad unemployment rate, 2002-2008

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Ingwe Kwa Sani Greater Kokstad Ubuhlebezwe Umzimkhulu

52.1%

12.6%

15.5%

31.9%

50.8%

Source: Global Insight

The main sectors contributed to employment opportunities in Kokstad were agriculture (30.7%)

followed by trade (19.7%), community services (18.9%) and household sector (16.4%) (Figure

4.3).

Figure 4.3: Employment rate by sectors, average 2002-2008

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

Source: Global Insight

Figure 4.4 shows the contribution of informal sector to employment in Kokstad municipality. It

reveals that informal employment contribution was significant between 2002 and 2008.

Concerning though was the decline of informal employment contribution in 2007 and remained

fairly constant in 2008. The major drivers of employment in informal sector on average between

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2002 and 2008 were Trade at 64.5 per cent followed by construction at 14.2 per cent and

transport at 6.8 per cent (Figure 4.5).

Figure 4.4: % share of informal employment in Kokstad municipality, y- o- y

25.0

27.0

29.0

31.0

33.0

35.0

37.0

39.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Source: Global Insight

Figure 4.5: Informal employment by sector, Avg 2002-2008

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

Manufacturing Construction Trade Transport Finance Community services

Source: Global Insight

5 Land cover and use

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80.6 percent of Greater Kokstad Municipality’s land was unimproved grassland which probably

used for promoting agriculture. 9.5 percent was cultivated temporary commercial dry land, and

4.2 percent was cultivated temporary commercial irrigated land.

Figure 5.1 Greater Kokstad Municipality Land use

1.5%

80.6%

1.0%

1.3%

0.4%

1.1%

0.1%

4.2%

9.5%

0.2%

0.2%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0%

Thicket & bushland (etc)

Unimproved grassland

Improved grassland

Forest plantations

Waterbodies

Wetlands

Barren rock

Cultivated: temporary - commercial irrigated

Cultivated: temporary - commercial dry land

Cultivated: temporary - semi-commercial/subsistence dry land

Urban / built-up land: residential

Source: Global Insight, 2009

6 Crime

Figure 6.1 Top 10 crime categories, crimes per 100,00 people, average (2002-2008)

525.01

268.09

270.97

630.53

382.48

267.54

252.35

258.46

813.02

366.90

0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00

Assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm

Common assault

Malicious damage to property

Burglary at residential premises

Theft out of or from motor vehicle

Stock-theft

Drug-related crime

Driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs

All theft not mentioned elsewhere

Shoplifting

Source: Global Insight, 2009

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Figure 6.1 gives the top ten categories of crimes reported in Greater Kokstad Municipality on

average between 2002 and 2008. The two leading categories were Theft and Burglaries at

residential premises. Assault with the intent to do grievous bodily harm, Theft of motor vehicles

and Shoplifting were also major crimes within the municipality.

7 Development

Figure 7.1 Urbanisation, Poverty and Literacy rates, average (2002-2008)

51.9

72.270.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Urban Poverty Literacy

%

Source: Global Insight, 2009

Figure 7.1 shows average poverty, urbanisation, and literacy rates for the Greater Kokstad

Municipality.The urbanisation rate of 51.9 percent indicates that a little less than half the

inhabitants of the area resided in rural areas. This creates an opportunity for rural development to

take place in the LM. The municipality has an alarmingly high poverty rate of 72.2 percent. This

is surely a contributing factor to the LM’s low urbanisation rate. The literacy rate amongst the

inhabitants of the region is impressive (70.3 percent) when one considers its high poverty rate

(Fig. 7.1).

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Figure 7.2 HIV+ and AIDS estimates (2002-2008)

17.818.3 18.5

17.917.4

16.816.1

0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

%

HIV+ estimates

AIDS estimates

Linear (HIV+ estimates)

Linear (AIDS estimates)

Source: Global Insight, 2009

HIV infections have been declining steadily between 2004 (18.5 percent) and 2008 (16.1

percent) in the LM. AIDS estimates, however, were on the rise between 2002 and 2004, but

stabilized at 1.4 percent between 2005 and 2008 (Fig. 7.2). This is probably due to the time lag

that exists between HIV infection, and the progression of the disease to AIDS. We should expect

to see a decline in the AIDS estimates in a few years or sooner as a result of increased ARV use.

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