Socio-Economic Benefits of Austin’s Tree Canopy
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Transcript of Socio-Economic Benefits of Austin’s Tree Canopy
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Socio-Economic Benefits of Austin’s Tree Canopy
Final report presented by:
Kyle Fuchshuber (Project Manager)
Jerad Laxson (Asst. Project Manager)
Megan Thomas (Editor & Researcher)
Eric Tijerina (Graphic Designer & Researcher)
Zachary Dye (GIS Specialist & Researcher)
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IntroductionUrban Tree Canopy and Socio-Economic
Benefits:◦ Carbon sequestration◦ Reduce Storm Water Runoff◦ Energy Reduction◦ Higher Quality of Life◦ Less $$(United State Environmental Protection Agency)
Benefits of our study◦ COA legislative decisions◦ Green future that is economically feasible for Austin, TX
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Primary Areas of StudyCrime rates
◦Lower crime = less costs and happy citizens
Property values◦Higher property value = higher
property taxes and affluent citizens
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Property Values ResearchTwin Cities
◦Increasing tree cover w/in 250 meters = 60% gain in home sale prices
Comparison Model◦How do external factors relate?
(Sander 2010)
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Crime Rates researchBaltimore
◦Strong negative relationship
Portland◦Moderately negative in old growth
forests(Donovan, Prestemon, 2010)
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Methodology – Tree Canopy and Property Values
Single-family residences extracted from parcel data
Averages of tree canopy percentages and property market prices per square foot joined to relative census tract area
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Apparent patterns…
• Census tracts are assigned average market price of single-family parcels within tract area
• Percent tree canopy is assigned to census tracts in same manner
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◦Geographically Weighted Regression Explanatory variables:
Percentage of tree cover Texas Education Agency ranked schools Proximity to parks/natural attractions Proximity to Cultural Attractions (Theatres, Shopping, Nightlife)
Methodology – Tree Canopy and Property Values
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= Property Value
Geographically Weighted Regression
𝛽1𝑇𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑛𝑜𝑝𝑦+𝛽2 h𝑆𝑐 𝑜𝑜𝑙𝑠+𝛽3 𝑃𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑠+𝛽4𝐶𝑢𝑙𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑙 𝐴𝑡𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠
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Ranking of Parks/Natural Areas - Ranking census tracts
a. Rank parks by size b. Assign Value by Parks Number
Rangec. Rank Census
Tract by Value of Parks in
Individual Tract Parks Ranking
- Hot Spot Isolation a. CoA Data Used b. Bufferc. Clip with Study
Area d. Intersect Findings for Final
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Ranking Schools Most Important Areas:
◦ Shopping Centers/Malls◦ Cinemas/Theaters◦ Nightlife
Each venue/area was then weighted:◦ No venues = 0◦ Theater, performing
arts center, or cinema = 1
◦ Nightlife area = 1◦ Regular shopping
center =1◦ Major shopping center
or mall = 2.
If more than one venue exists in a census tract, the values are added up, for a total of up to 5. Values ranged from 0 to 5.
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Ranking Schools Schools located by points Each school given Texas
Education Agency ranking:◦ No ranking/data: 1◦ Academically unacceptable:
2◦ Academically acceptable: 3◦ Recognized: 4◦ Exemplary: 5
Schools then joined to census tracts◦ Rank averages
calculated Census tracts ranked by:
◦ Number of schools ◦ Average ranking◦ Most reoccurring school
ranking within tract
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Tree Canopy’s Effects upon Property Values:
Results
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Prediction follows High Value = High Tree Coverage pattern• Tree Cover and Property
Value are directly correlated with no explanatory variables
• Prediction follows hypothesis: higher percentage of tree cover is associated with higher property values
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Prediction with considerations• Property value is
correlated to tree cover as well as other explanatory variables
• Areas closer to central business districts and proximity to parks also have an influence on property values
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Direct Correlation
• Tree Cover and Property Value are directly correlated with no explanatory variables
• Darker hues of red indicate that the area’s property values are more sensitive to tree cover
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Explanatory Variables give closer look of reality• Property value’s
sensitivity to tree cover is correlated with tree cover as well as other explanatory variables
• Area of highest positive correlation represents 23% of Austin’s singe family homes.
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Conclusions23% of all single-family parcels
will benefit greatly from tree coverage.
Tree canopy has a positive correlation to property values in the City of Austin
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DataTCAD Parcels – Percent Tree
Canopy and Property Market Prices
US Census TractsTEA – School RankingsCAPCOG – City of Austin BorderGoogle Earth – Cultural
AttractionsCity of Austin - Parks
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Tree Canopy’s Effects upon Crime Rates:
Results
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Results Figure 1A:
Tree CanopyPercent
0- 11.73
11.73 - 27.90
27.90 - 42.87
42.87 - 57.95
57.95 - 83.97
Incidence
Yearly Crime Total 0 - 25
26 - 75
76 - 160
161 - 453
454 - 2023
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ResultsFigure 1B:
Violent CrimesYearly Total
0 - 12
13 - 35
36 - 67
68 - 317
318 - 1149
Tree CanopyPercent
0- 11.73
11.73 - 27.90
27.90 - 42.87
42.87 - 57.95
57.95 - 83.97
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Results Figure 2A:
Sensitivity to Tree CanopyCrime
-2.85 - -2.52
-2.52 - -2.10
-2.10 - -1.67
-1.67 - -1.29
-1.29 - -0.95
-0.95 - -0.64
-0.64- -0.04
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ResultsFigure 2B:
ConfidenceR Squared
0 - 0.02
0.02 - 0.04
0.04 - 0.05
0.05 - 0.062
0.06 - 0.08
0.08 - 0.12
0.12 - 0.19
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ResultsFigure 3A:
Sensitivity to Tree CanopyViolent Crime
-5.25 - -4.23
-4.23 - -3.23
-3.23 - -2.08
-2.08 - -1.20
-1.20 - -0.65
-0.65 - -0.07
-0.07 - 0.89
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Results◦Figure 3B:
ConfidenceR Squared
0 - 0.04
0.04 - 0.08
0.08 - 0.11
0.11 - 0.15
0.15 - 0.20
0.20 - 0.30
0.30 - 0.47
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ResultsFigure 4A:
Sensitivity to Tree CanopyViolent Crime
-1.54 - -1.30
-1.30 - -1.05
-1.05 - -0.77
-0.77 - -0.55
-0.55 - -0.37
-0.37 - -0.22
-0.22 - 0.17
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ResultsFigure 4B
Confidence R Squared
0 - 0.01
0.01 - 0.02
0.02 - 0.03
0.03 - 0.04
0.04 - 0.05
0.05 - 0.09
0.09 - 0.20
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ResultsFigure 5A
Sensitivity to Cree CanopyViolent Crime
-3.05 - -2.40
-2.40 - -1.81
-1.81 - -1.27
-1.27 - -0.72
-0.72 - -0.29
-0.29 - 0.06
0.06 - 0.61
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ResultsFigure 5B
ConfidenceR Squared
0 - 0.03
0.03 - 0.07
0.07 - 0.10
0.10 - 0.14
0.14 - 0.19
0.19 - 0.24
0.24 - 0.35
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Discussion Correlation is not particularly
significant.
More variables need to be considered.
Model could have been more confident in its prediction.
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ConclusionIncrease in tree canopy
decreases crime.
Greater relationship near downtown.
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DataTCAD Parcels – Percent Tree
Canopy and Property Market Prices
US Census TractsTEA – School RankingsCAPCOG – City of Austin BorderGoogle Earth – Cultural
AttractionsCity of Austin - Parks
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GIS DATADescription File_Name Feature Type Source
Street Centerlines STREETS.zip Lineftp://ftp.ci.austin.tx.us/GIS-Data/Regional/coa_gis.html
City of Austin Parks coa_parks.zip Polygonftp://ftp.ci.austin.tx.us/GIS-Data/Regional/coa_gis.html
2010 Censuscensus2010_blocks_uscensus.zip Polygon http://txsdc.utsa.edu/
City Limit Boundary capcog_city_limits.zip Polygon CAPCOG
Crime Incident_Extract.csv Point Austin Police Department
Austin Tree and Tax Data TCAD_parcels_2010/zip Polygon
ftp://ftp.ci.austin.tx.us/GIS-Data/PARD/Regina/
Description Attributes Used 2010 Census Income data Tracts
Austin Tree and Tax DataPercent tree canopy/ Land use tax codes
Single family use and commercial use
Market value of parcels Acreage
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Sources Donovan, Geoffrey H., Jeffrey P. Prestemon. (2012)The effect
of trees on crime in Portland, Oregon. Environment and Behavior. 44(1): 3-30.
Sander, H., Polasky, S. & Haight, R. G. (2010). The value of urban tree cover: A hedonic property price model in Ramsey and Dakota Counties, Minnesota, USA. Ecological Economics 69(2010), 1646-1656. http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/ pubs/jrnl/2010/nrs_2010_sander_001.pdf
United States Environmental Protection Agency, (2008).Reducing urban heat islands: Compendium of strategies (Chapter 2: Trees and Vegetation). Retrieved from website: http://www.epa.gov/heatisland/resources/compendium.htm