Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight for Practitioners...
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Transcript of Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight for Practitioners...
Socio-Economic Aspects of Foresight
UNIDO -Training Course on Technology Foresight for PractitionersPrague, 6-10 Otober 2003
Martin Potůček, CESES, Prague, Czech Republic
Content: Why focusing on Socio-Economic
Aspects of Foresight? Conceptual model of the development
at the national level Priority problems Strategic conceptions Presentation of priority problems and/or
strategic conceptions developed by participants´ teams
The alternative ways of accessing R&D priorities
Science-push approach: needs of knowledge driven by curiosity, vested interests of scientists and research institutions
Science-pull approach: priorities generated by assessed (present and future) needs of economy and society
…experience from the Czech Republic
C4Preparation
C3Regulatory
C2Development
of
C1Forming of
national
B1 SOCIAL COHESION
for the entrance
power constitutional, legal and
culture,
B2 KNOWLEDGE SOCIETY
into EU of the market, politicalsystem of the
national identity
B3 LABOR MARKET, EMPLOYMENT AND EMPLOYABILITY
and full-fledged
state and civic country, space for
and national interests
B4 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH, FAMILY AND HOUSING
membership sector in mutual
public participation
in the context of
B5 INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL SAFETY
in EU relations in policy-making
human values
B6 ENVIRONMENT, TERRITORIAL POTENTIALS OF DEVELOPMENT
A
Quality and
sustain-ability
of life
B7
Economic development
Conceptual model of the society
Caption:
A – Criteria block B – Developmental potentials C – Formative regulators
General criteria of the development:
Quality of life Sustainability of life Economic development Others: standard of living, peace,
human values, employment, social cohesion, cultural heritage…?
…controversies
Developmental potentialsB1 Social cohesionB2 Knowledge societyB3 Labor market, employment and employabilityB4 Demographic development, health, family, and
housingB5 Internal and external securityB6 Environment, territorial potentials of
development(B7 Economic development) …controversies
Formative regulatorsC1 Forming of national culture, national
identity and national interests in the context of human values
C2 Development of constitutional, legal and political system of the country, space for public participation in policy-making
C3 Tuning regulatory power of market, state and civic sector in mutual relations
C4 Preparation for the entrance into EU and full-fledged membership in EU
Methods of inductive aggregation of socio-economic
priorities
Definition, identification, elaboration and example of priority problems
Definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic conceptions
… definition, identification, elaboration and example of strategic moves)
Identification of priority problems
Priority problems (PPs) = discrepancies between the present and desirable states of certain conditions of life in economy and society
Definition of the PP What societal tension is in the core of the PP Why PP is really a priority one Location of the PP within the conceptual model Proposal of the (alternative) way(s) of the
solution of PP Potential of R&D to solve the PP
An example of the priority problem
PP: Growing social inequalities induced by different qualifications, experience, use and direct access to the information and communication technologies (ICT)
Potential of R&D to solve the PP: Development of the hardware, software
and communication means that are user-friendly, easily accessible and cheap
Development of educational methods that will ease the mastering of ICTs
Identification of strategic conceptions
Strategic conceptions (SCs) = relatively complex action priorities, e.g. priorities able to solve the entire group of PPs
Definition of the SC PPs which are to be solved by the SC Nature and mechanism(s) of the solution
represented by the SC Elements and steps of the SC Main actors involved in the realization of the SC The specific place of R&D in the realization of
the SC
An example of the strategic conception -
definitionSC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTORThe public sector has not still undergone a
satisfactory functional transformation from the structure imprinted by the Communist regime. The reform of the public sector as a complex process of political, legislative, administrative and institutional transformations will prepare the ground for the public services which would be provided efficiently, in correspondent quality and would be generally accessible.
An example of the strategic conception – the
place of R&DSC: REFORM OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR Research on capacities of Public Policy and
Administration dealing with the public interests at central, regional and municipal level
Research on legal framework securing the protection of human rights
Research on the system of public finance compatible with market economy, political democracy, quality and sustainability of life
Sectoral research of public services (health care, education, social services…)
How to match PPs and SCs with R&D priorities
PPs and SCs are able to identify core needs of economy and society.
Some of them can be easily associated with R&D potentials/priorities.
In other cases there are either alternative ways of exploitation of R&D potentials, or there is no potential available
There may be R&D targets without clear impact on covering core needs of economy and society…
There may be unknown and/or unexpected positive and/or negative consequences of R&D
…controversies
ReferencesPotůček, M.: Priority Problems and Strategic Concepts
of the Development if the Czech Republic. In: National Visions and Strategies. Soul, KDI School of Public Policy and Management, OECD & World bank 2003, pp. 193-230
Průvodce krajinou priorit pro Českou republiku. Praha: Gutenberg 2002. (Guide to the Priorities for the Czech Republic, in Czech, a short English summary.)
Travelling in the Czech Future. Praha, Gutenberg 2003. (In Czech, an extended English summary.)
For further references, see the website of the Center for Social and Economic Strategies: http://ceses.cuni.cz