Socio-ecological vulnerability assessment for Germany

19
4th International Symposium on Flood Defence 6-8 May 2008 Socio-ecological vulnerability assessment for Germany A sub-national approach Marion Damm

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Socio-ecological vulnerability assessment for Germany. A sub-national approach Marion Damm. Table of content. Problem Definition Objectives Conceptual Framework Methodology Preliminary Results Conclusion and Outlook. Floods in Germany. DLR. Flood Extent. Year. River. Damage [m]. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Socio-ecological vulnerability assessment for Germany

Page 1: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Socio-ecological vulnerability assessment for Germany

A sub-national approach

Marion Damm

Page 2: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Table of content

1. Problem Definition

2. Objectives

3. Conceptual Framework

4. Methodology

5. Preliminary Results

6. Conclusion and Outlook

Page 3: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

Floods in Germany

Danube

Rhine

Elbe

900 €Danube2005

810 €Rhine1995/1993

530 €Danube, Rhine

1999

9200 €Elbe2002

Damage [m]RiverYear

Damage Model

GFZ

Vulnerability

UNU-EHS

DLR

Flood Extent

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Coupled social-ecological system

Page 5: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Objective of this study

Assessment of social-ecological vulnerability to

flooding in Germany at county level

a) forest sector

b) agricultural sector

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

Work steps:

• Conceptual Framework

• Development of Indicators

• Building a Composite Indicator

• Mapping Vulnerability

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Conceptual Framework (1)

Vulnerability

Exposure Sensitivities Resilience

EcosystemRobustness

AdaptivecapacitiesAdaptivecapacities

Coping capacitiesCoping capacities

Interactions of hazards(perturbations, stresses)

Human Influences outside the PlaceMacro political economy, institutions,

global trends and transitions

Environmental Influences outside the PlaceState of biosphere, State of Nature,

Global Environmental Changes

Impact responses

Adjustment &adaptationresponses

Variability & changein human conditions

Variability & changein environmental

conditions

WorldRegion

Place

WorldRegion

Place

Dynamics

cross-scalein placebeyond place

System operates at multiplespatial, functional and temporal scales

• Assets• People• Ecosystems

• EnvironmentalStressors

• Human Stresssors

adapted from Turner et al. 2003

Important elements:

• Vulnerability framework

• Cross-scale dynamics

• Coupled systems

• Dynamic feedbacks

Page 7: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Conceptual Framework (3)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

Disaster Risk = f (Hazard, Vulnerability)

Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Sensitivity, Resilience)

Hazard: flood dependent and flood independent characteristics that contribute to flood intensity

Vulnerability: Intrinsic and dynamic feature of a system which is driven by environmental, social and economic factors and determines the susceptibility towards a certain hazard

Page 8: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Methodology

1. Indicator development- Literature Review

- Impact Analysis

- Interviews with experts from forest and agricultural sector

2. Building a composite indicator

- Data collection (German wide data base)

- Statistical Analyses

3. Mapping vulnerability across counties- Geographical Information System (GIS)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Composite Indicator

Procedure:

1. Data collection

2. Imputation of missing data

3. Scaling and transformation of indicators

4. Data analysis

5. Normalization

6. Weighting

(Nardo et al. 2005)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Weighting Scheme

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

Sensitivity (S)

Exposure (E)

Resilience (R)

• forest rate (e1)

• employers in forest sector (e2)

• unemployment rateof county (sh)

• crown defoliation rate (se1)

• mean river water quality (se2)

• forest size (er1)

• forest type (er2)

• forest fragmentation (er3)

• GDP per capita of county (c1)

• GDP per capita of FS* (c2)

• mean annual income of households (c3)

• forest growth rate (a1)

• protected areas (a2)

CI Vulnerability

* FS = Federal State

1

0.5

0.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Sensitivity (S)

Exposure (E)

Resilience (R)

• forest rate (e1)

• employers in forest sector (e2)

• unemployment rateof county (sh)

• crown defoliation rate (se1)

• mean river water quality (se2)

• forest size (er1)

• forest type (er2)

• forest fragmentation (er3)

• GDP per capita of county (c1)

• GDP per capita of FS* (c2)

• mean annual income of households (c3)

• forest growth rate (a1)

• protected areas (a2)

CI VulnerabilityCI Vulnerability

* FS = Federal State

1

0.5

0.5

1

1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Criteria

• Data quality

• Correlations

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Composite Indicator

Procedure:

1. Data collection

2. Imputation of missing data

3. Scaling and transformation of indicators

4. Data analysis

5. Normalization

6. Weighting

7. Aggregation of indicators

(Nardo et al. 2005)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Aggregation

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

2

)( 2211 ewewExposure

22

)( 25143

sewsewshw

ySensitivit

323

)(

3

)(

Re

21311231121019382716 awawcwcwcwerwerwerw

silience

Vulnerability = E + S+ R

Resilience

Page 13: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Composite Indicator

Procedure:

1. Data collection

2. Imputation of missing data

3. Scaling and transformation of indicators

4. Data analysis

5. Normalization

6. Weighting

7. Aggregation of indicators

8. Visualization

9. Robustness tests

(Nardo et al. 2005)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Vulnerability Maps

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

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6-8 May 2008

Robustness Test (1)

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Robustness Test (2)

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Robustness Test (3)

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

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4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Conclusion and Outlook

Conclusion: • Data availability and accessibility as a main constraint• Generalization due to scaling• Indicators and methods are robust• Approach provides a reliable overview on vulnerable

patterns in Germany

Outlook:• Evaluation and Validation of the approach• Risk assessment

• Problem Definition

• Objectives

• Concep. Framework

• Methodology

• Results

• Constraints/Outlook

Page 19: Socio-ecological vulnerability  assessment for Germany

4th InternationalSymposium on Flood

Defence

6-8 May 2008

Thank you for your attention!

Contact:

[email protected]