Social security for all: Investing in people
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Transcript of Social security for all: Investing in people
InternationalLabourOffice
Social security for all:Investing in people
Presentation at UN DESA ForumProductive Employment
and Decent Work Michael CichonSocial Security Department
New York, 8 May 2006
2
InternationalLabourOffice
Structure of presentation
Point One: Social security: Definition, objective and problematique
Point Two: Social security’s main challenges
Point Three: The rationale for social security in development Point Four: Changing the development paradigm
Point Five : By way of conclusion: Accepting global responsibility
for social security for all
InternationalLabourOfficePoint One: Definition
Definition: social protection/social security:
formal or informal income transfers in cash or in kind that ascertain access:
- to health and social services and
- income security to cope with certain life risks that
could lead to a loss of income (i.e. social assistance, pensions, short-term cash benefits in case of sickness, maternity, unemployment, employment injury…)
InternationalLabourOffice
Point One: Objective
Objective of social security systems: alleviate/or better abolish poverty and reduce social insecurity
The Decent Work connection: Social protection/social security is one of basic pillars of decent work:
without social security neither work nor life in the formal and informal economy can be decent
5
InternationalLabourOffice
Point One: Problematique
Social security reduces poverty by at least 50% in almost all OECD countries
Social security reduces income inequality by about 50% in many European countries
Social security universally accepted as human right (article 22, Universal Declaration)
And yet: 80% of people live in social insecurity, 20% in abject poverty
And yet: Social security is underutilized in national anti-poverty and development strategies
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InternationalLabourOffice
Point One: …present coverage Social security coverage in old age: current beneficiaries and protected persons in working age
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Azerbaijan Brazil Germany Mongolia Senegal Tanzania United States Viet Nam
Cov
erag
e ra
tio (
per
cent
of
the
popu
latio
n in
thi
s ag
e gr
oup)
Beneficiaries (65+)
Protected persons (15-64)
Source: Preliminary results of the ILO Social Security Inquiry, Social Security Department of the United States and German Social Insurance. Data on the insured population in working age for the United States include survivor benefits.
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InternationalLabourOffice
Point Two: Challenge One: The non- affordability arguments: Work and life cannot be made decent through social security, because …
– Loss in potential GDP due to equity efficiency trade-off
– Social expenditure too expensive for developing countries
– Ageing poses an unsolvable problem– Unmanageable expenditure explosions
- Competitive forces in globalization will limit fiscal space
InternationalLabourOffice
Correlations between per hour productivity and social expenditure per capita
in OECD countries in 2001
y = 0.0043x + 8.7845
R2 = 0.7812
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
Total public social expenditure per capita in PPP
Pro
du
cti
vit
y
(per
ho
ur
wo
rked
)
Source: OECD
The equity-efficiency trade-off: Empirical evidence in OECD
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InternationalLabourOffice
Assessing potential impact and costs of cash transfers in Senegal and Tanzania:
Poverty rates before and after cash transfersSenegal
0
5
10
15
20
25
Tot Boys Girls Old M Old F
child benefit pension
Tanzania
0
5
10
15
20
25
Tot Boys Girls Old M Old F
child benefit pension
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InternationalLabourOffice
Assessing potential impact and costs of cash transfers in Senegal and Tanzania:
Cost of benefit package as percentage of GDP
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Senegal Tanzania
child benefit pension
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InternationalLabourOffice
Affordability study, base scenario:2005-2035 projected benefit expenditure on old-age /disability pension and child benefit (% of GDP)But, in principle, both would be fiscally affordable now and in the future
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2005 2010 2020 2030 2035
BF Ca Eth Gui Ken Sen Tan
12
InternationalLabourOffice
Preliminary results for Tanzania: Expenditure
Basic social protection expenditure in percent of GDP
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033
Universal pensions Child benefit Basic education
Basic health care Administrative expenditure
13
InternationalLabourOffice
Preliminary results for Tanzania: Financing
Option 1 (based on 2003 fixed proportion of projected govt. expenditure)
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 2033
Required External financing in % of GDPGovernment financing in % of GDP
14
InternationalLabourOffice
Ageing: A catastrophe?
Estimated old age system dependency rates in Western Europe 2004 - 2050 without (DR1) and
with (DR2) increased retiment age
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
Dep
end
ency
rat
e in
%
DR (1)
DR(2)
15
InternationalLabourOffice
Ageing: A catastrophe? Global dependency rates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
elderly L
elderly M
adults L
adults M
children L
children M
16
InternationalLabourOffice
Non-manageable expenditure? Projected expenditure in the EU…
17
InternationalLabourOffice
Challenge Two: Globalization, race to the bottom and the new uncertainty
There is evidence for a reduction of expenditure and benefit levels
BUT: There is no universal objective reason to assume that the fiscal space has to collapse completely – However, a challenge remains
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InternationalLabourOffice
Race to the bottom: The expected pension replacement rates
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Poland France Sweden(1)
Sweden(2)
CzechRepublic
Latvia
2005
2050
19
InternationalLabourOffice
No fiscal space?
y = 6.6127e4E-05x
R2 = 0.2858
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000
GDP per capita in US$
So
cia
l secu
rity
exp
en
dit
ure
in
%..
Luxembourg
Bahrein
Japan
Korea
Mongolia
Singapore
Turkey
Poland
Sweden
Thailand
Denmark
Belarus
France
Argentina
United States
EthiopiaBurundi
Egypt
Israel
New Zealand
Bulgaria
Chile
Finland
UruguayUkraine
20
InternationalLabourOffice
No policy and fiscal space?
R2 = 0.3756
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Government expenditure (% of GDP)
So
cia
l exp
en
dit
ure
(%
of
tota
l)
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InternationalLabourOffice
Point Three: The rationale for social security in development
(1) Extensive welfare states and productive economies co-exist ==> The trade-off between equity and efficiency is wrong
(2) Some level of social security is affordable at any level of economic development
(3) Social security reduces poverty and inequality, facilitates LM adjustments, redistributes the proceeds of growth
Social security is thus an investment in people, states and the global community
22
InternationalLabourOffice
Point Four : Changing the development paradigm: towards progressive universalism
100%Fullbenefit coverage
Benefitcoverage
intermediatebenefit coverage
Basicbenefitcoverage
civil private informalservants/sector economypublic employeeschildren employed non-employed elderlyemployees
population coverage by groups
23
InternationalLabourOfficeLet us start with:
– Basic health care for all– Child benefits conditioned on
schooling– Self targeting social assistance– Universal benefits in old age, disability
and loss of breadwinner – …facilitated through international
action guidelines which could look as follows:
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InternationalLabourOffice
Point Five: Accepting global responsibility for social security for all: Three complementary ways
Creating international standards to defend a global social floor
Accepting global responsibility for the fiscal space for social transfers (PRSP, debt relief, ODA etc.)
Supporting national administrations in improved resource allocation and mobilization mechanisms