Social Science Research: Key Role in Shaping Institute-level Priorities and

Research Agenda for Poverty Alleviation in the SAT

P. Parthasarathy Rao Asst. Research Program Director and

Principal Scientist, RP MIP

29 December 2014 ICRISAT, Patancheru

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Cereals Sorghum Millets Maize Distribution of area accoring to yield levels

27.319.2 22.9

46.5

26.0

34.2

26.2

54.8

42.9

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980-82 1993-95 2005-07

Year

Perc

en

t are

a

Less than 600 kg/ha 600-1000 kg/ha Greater than 1000 kg/ha

Social Science Research Valuable insights

• present/future demand/supply (agricultural commodities) • adoption constraints at farm-level • consumer-level perceptions/preferences

Feedback to agricultural scientists

• fine-tune improved crop varieties/technologies Inputs to institute’s strategic plan Information to policy-makers Assessment of outcome/impact

Outline of Presentation

Overview of contribution of social science research at ICRISAT (last 2─3 decades):

• Crop – livestock linkages

• Commodity situation and outlook (e.g. sorghum)

• Sorghum and pearl millet to combat micronutrient deficiency

• Agricultural diversification (high-value crops)

• Typology of crop – livestock systems

• Market research and linking farmers to markets

• Constraints and opportunities of new technologies

Crop – livestock Linkages

Source Growth in availability

Marketed proportion

Cereal crop residues

• Slender (straw)

• Coarse (stover)

Legume crop residues

• Pulses

• Oilseeds

• Sugarcane tops

Grasses from pastures, wastelands, forests, fallows

Fodder crops

Agro-industrial by-products

• Oilcakes

• Bran

• Cereal grains for livestock feed

• Manufactured feed

Feed Resources Availability, India

• Rising straw prices

• Declining grain to straw price ratio

• Larger seasonal variation in straw prices

• Increasing straw value in total value of production

• Growing importance of fodder markets

• Long distance trade in chopped fodder

Growing Importance of Crop Residues: sorghum and pearl millet

Crop residues – Important Feed Resource

Total feed availability Crop residues

0

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7

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Price Ratio

Sorghum grain and fodder, real price indices. Solapur. Maharashtra. 1971 – 1990

Sorghum grain to fodder price ratio. Solapur, Maharashtra

Sorghum Grain vs Fodder Prices

Figure 4. Relationship between livestock productivity and feed

availability, India: 1998, zone level (log scale).

y = 0.137Ln(x) + 3.0917

R2 = 0.6081

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.4

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70

Feed availability t LU -1

Liv

es

toc

k p

rod

uc

tiv

ity

Rs

. L

U -

1

Feed Availability:

a prime driver of livestock productivity Figure 8. Relationship between buffalo productivity and

feed availability, Nepal: 1998 (district level).

y = 244.85Ln(x) + 660.35

R2 = 0.4323

200

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1000

1200

1400

1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0

Feed availability t LU -1B

uff

alo

pro

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cti

vit

y

(mil

k k

g a

nn

um

-1)

India Nepal

Publications – Instruments of Feedback

1993

Milk (% change) Meat (% change) Regions

1980-2000 2000-2020* 1980-2000 2000-2020*

World 26 —

60 —

Developed -0.5 — 13 —

Developing 86 — 147 —

SAT total 107 97 81 100

Africa 58 73 41 72

Asia 132 111 66 111

NCSA 73 63 122 108

* = Projected

Per capita consumption of milk and meat is 1/2 to 2/3 of world average

Livestock Revolution in SAT, too!

Milk and meat consumption

(change between 1980–2000 and 2000–2020)

y = 1.6194Ln(x) + 1.708

R2 = 0.5562

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1.5

2.5

3.5

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Urban population (million )

Poultry

activity

(million r

upees)

Urban population versus poultry activity,

India: 1998, zone level (log scale)

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

World

NCS America

South Asia

Southern Africa

West Africa

East Africa

Share (%)

1980-82

1997-99

2020 projectedShare of non-

ruminant meat to

total meat

consumption

(SAT regions)

Urbanization – a Driver for Non-ruminant Meat

• ICRISAT-ILRI Collaboration

• Areas of collaboration

• Evolution of crop–livestock systems

• Crop residues improvements

• Desert Margins Program

• Rural Livelihoods Program

• ICRISAT re-aligned research project portfolio

• ICRISAT started a Global Theme on crop–livestock linkages

Outcomes

Out-scaling fodder technologies for the benefit of poor livestock farmers

Opening remarks of Dr. William D. Dar

Fodder innovation project: National stakeholders workshop

Workshops…

Mixed Crop – Livestock Systems: A Must for the SAT

Dr William Dar, Director General, ICRISAT Workshop on Documentation, Adoption and Impact of Livestock Technologies in India, 18 Jan 2001, ICRISAT-

Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India

• Increasing livestock productivity in mixed crop–livestock systems in South Asia (led by MIP).

• Plant diseases and nutritive value of crop-residues for peri-urban dairy production on the Deccan Plateau of India

• Stakeholders' coalition: sorghum for poultry feed

• Fodder Innovations Project: Enhancing livelihoods of poor livestock

keepers through increasing use of fodder

• Crop–livestock linkages under Rural Livelihood Project (watershed),

APRLP–ICRISAT: Andhra Pradeh

Crop–livestock Linkages and Fodder and Feed Improvement Projects in Asia

Contd....

Collaborative Projects

• Conventional and marker-assisted selection: stover yield and feed quality of sorghum cultivars

• Improving the quality of pearl millet residues for livestock

• Identification of forage-type pigeonpea germplasm for a wide range

of environments

• Evaluation of groundnut breeding lines for fodder quality

• Varietal evaluation for aflatoxin tolerance in groundnut

Projects in Asia (contd...)

ICRISAT – ILRI partnership is flourishing…

Landmark Books...

Publications..

Commodity Situation and Outlook

Landmark publications...

Updates...

Coverage under Situation and Outlook Reports

• Area, production, and yield trends of mandate and competing crops

• Production constraints

• Utilization and consumption trends

• International trade

• Prices

• Markets, institutions and policies

• Outlook (short- and medium-term)

The Big Picture: Sorghum and Millets

Demand

Consumer demand varies between

regions, class, rural-urban areas and crops

Projections show growing demand in ESA and WCA, slower growth in SA

New end uses: sorghum beer (ESA/WCA), millet weaning food (ESA, WCA), fodder (SA), poultry feed (SA), potable alcohol (SA) and sorghum and millet-based food products (WCA, SA)

Supply

Variable marketable surplus (SA,

WCA)

Existing market structure reduces price incentives for growers

Volume, consistent supply and quality are concerns for processors

Collective marketing increases producer price incentives (ESA, WCA, SA)

Inclusive business models exist but on limited scale

Awareness creation, food processing & up-scaling of post-harvest technologies will enhance market access

Source: A.Orr

Sorghum: India

Spatial and Temporal Variation: Rainy Season Sorghum Area and Yield by District in India

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Rising Share of Postrainy Sorghum to Rainy Season Sorghum, All India

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Production

kharif rabi

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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Pe

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Area

kharif rabi

Annual Per Capita Consumption of Sorghum in Rural and Urban India (kg)

Contrasting Trends: Availability of Rainy and Postrainy Sorghum for Food Use, All India

Higher Per Capita Consumption of Sorghum in Major Growing Regions of India

Region

Rural Urban

(kg / person/ annum

(kg / person / annum)

Inland Central Maharashtra (ICM) 54.2 33.01

Inland Northern Karnataka (INM) 49.9 33.9

Inland Eastern Maharashtra (IEM) 45.4 9.8

Inland Western Maharashtra (IWM) 31.7 18.2

Inland Northern Maharashtra (INM) 22.3 8.2

South Western Andhra Pradesh (SWAP) 13.9 8.1

Inland Northern Andhra Pradesh (INAP) 11.0 3.5

Poor Households are Major Consumers of Sorghum,

2009–2010, All India

Expenditure category Consumption

Per capita

consumption

('000 t) (%) (Kg yr-1)

Rural

Low (less than Rs. 765 per month) 1,447.6 52.2 4.75

Medium (Rs. 765–1477 per month) 1,106.9 39.9 3.64

High (greater than Rs. 1477 per month) 221.1 8.0 1.45

Urban

Low (less than Rs. 1307 per month) 414.5 67.3 3.67

Medium (Rs. 1307–3166 per month) 172.0 27.9 1.52

High (greater than Rs. 3166 per month) 29.1 4.7 0.52

Growing Demand for Alternative Uses of Sorghum, All India

Alternative uses include

Alternative uses include poultry feed, cattle feed, alcohol, starch etc., aa

Sorghum Value-Added Products

Flour Rava

Thalpeeth flour with sorghum Sorghum flour

Multigrain flour with sorghum and sorghum rawa Popped sorghum & flour

Sorghum idly rawa and snack flour

SWOT Analysis of Process and Product Upgradation of Postrainy season Sorghum Value Chain

Process upgrading

Strengths

Strong demand for cleaned and graded produce

Small packets and branding

Consumers willingness to pay

Weakness

Producers lack awareness on cleaning & grading

Investment & infrastructure constraints

Opportunities

Small proportion of the produce is graded

Value addition can enhance incomes

Growing awareness of health benefits of nutri cereals

in urban areas

Threats

Farmers denied premium price premium by traders

Non–availability of graded produce throughout the

year

Government policies subsidizing fine cereals

Product upgrading Strengths

Strong demand for value added products

Nutraceutical benefits of sorghum

Consumers willingness to pay

Weakness

Inability to procure supplies consistently (quality,

quantity, price )

Investors skepticism about investment

Opportunities

Increased employment & enhanced incomes

Product choice for consumers

Investment opportunities for chain operators

Threats

Business threats

Government policies subsidizing fine cereal

products

Chain sustainability

Pearl Millet

Spatial and Temporal Variation in

Pearl Millet Area and Yield by District

Annual Per Capita Consumption of Pearl Millet in Rural and Urban India (kg)

Regions

Rural consumption

Urban consumption

kg/person/Annum

Western Rajasthan (WRA) 69 19

Dry Areas Gujarat (DAG) 59 24

Plains Northern Gujarat (PNG) 33 7

Saurashtra (SARG) 32 14

Plains Southern Gujarat (PSG) 20 3

Northeastern Rajasthan (NERA) 17 4

Higher Per Capita Consumption of Pearl Millet in Major Growing Regions of India

Expenditure category

Consumption Per capita

consumption

('000 t) (%) (kg/yr)

Rural

Low (Less than Rs. 765 per month) 826.6 35.6 2.7

Medium (Rs. 765- 1477 per month) 1221.2 52.6 4.0

High (Greater than Rs. 1477 per month) 274.0 11.8 1.8

Urban

Low (Less than Rs. 1307 per month) 145.9 49.8 1.3

Medium (Rs. 1307-3166 per month) 119.2 40.6 1.1

High (Greater than Rs. 3166 per month) 28.1 9.6 0.5

Poor and Middle Income Households Major Consumers of Pearl Millet, All India, 2009-10

Current and Projected Share (%) of Different Uses of Pearl Millet Grain, Western India

Utilization 2011 2020

Food use (Household) 46 40

Cattle Feed 37.5 38.6

Poultry feed 7.7 9.4

Alcohol and other uses 8.8 11.7

Seed 0.4 0.3

Total 100 100

7

30

37

46

55

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

82-83 87-88 93-94 99-00 04-05 09-10

% O

ther

Uses

Years

Growing Demand for Alternative Uses of Pearl Millet, All India

Cattle feed, poultry feed, alcohol,

• Food use is declining, but alternative uses are increasing (nearly 50% in Western India) • Cattle feed , alcohol, poultry, starch

• Reasons for decline in food use

Availability of wheat from PDS Longer cooking / preparation time Non storability of flour even for 1-2 weeks Non availability / affordability of complementary commodities like ghee, curd etc. Consumption restricted to winter months Changing food habits in urban India

• Implications for research and policy

Reasons for Declining Food Consumption

Growing Importance of Summer Pearl Millet,

Gujarat, India

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80

90

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Are

a Sh

are

(%

)

Area Summer Kharif

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50

60

70

80

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11

Yie

ld S

har

e (

%)

Production

Summer Kharif

Summer pearl millet grown under irrigation. Yields 2-3 times higher than under rainy season pearl millet. Need for improved seeds and technology different from rainfed pearl millet

Addressing Malnutrition: sorghum and pearl millet

• Contribution of sorghum to total iron and zinc intake in major growing regions (Iron: 15.1–36.9%; zinc:13.5–35.2%)

• Contribution of pearl millet to total iron and zinc intake in major growing regions (Iron: 19.2–48.7%; zinc: 16.4–44.0%)

• Pearl millet and sorghum are the cheapest sources of iron and zinc, compared to rice, milk, meat and eggs

Selection from existing varieties and breeding for high iron and zinc content being carried out under Harvest Plus and related projects.

Outcomes

• Emphasis on post rainy season sorghum in CRP 3.6

• Emphasis on dual purpose hybrids and varieties for sorghum and pearl millet

• Forage sorghum yield and quality enhancement work

• Promoting alternative uses of sorghum and pearl millet

• Estimating potential demand for value added sorghum products

• Heat tolerant pearl millet work for summer cultivation

• Iron and zinc improvement projects for sorghum under harvest plus

and DBT and pearl millet under harvest plus

• Nutrifarms scheme started by Govt. of India to promote biofortified variety cultivation in farmers field

Agricultural Diversification

Factors Driving Changes in the Consumer Food Basket

• Income growth

• Higher Income elasticity of demand for fruit, vegetables, milk etc.

• Urban population growth (urbanization) • Change in tastes and preferences • Increased role of private sector investments • Emergence of niche markets (pre-specified or organic products) • Demographic features

Women involvement in work force

Changing proportions of young/old people

Changing shares of ethnic groups These drivers will continue to influence consumers food basket in the short to medium term

Rising Share of Fruits & Vegs, Milk and Meat in Total VOP, All India (2004-05 prices)

Value of Commodity Groups, All India, 2011 (at 2004-05 price)

Rising Share of High Value Commodities, All India (2004-05 prices)

Agricultural Diversification and National Highways

Highway connection between Urban center and surrounding districts determines Level of diversification

Share of HVC’s in Urban Surrounded District Group with Highway Passes

Items

No. of National Highway passes

Zero

One

Two highways and above

1982 1998 1982 1998 1982 1998

No. of districts 25 45 23

Share in agricultural value (%)

Fruits 4.42 4.93 10.30 11.24 6.92 9.91

Vegetables 6.93 6.06 8.68 7.40 5.66 6.31

Bovine milk 13.35 14.81 11.94 14.14 14.28 16.94

Meat 0.87 1.19 1.34 1.96 1.59 1.54

Poultry, pig meat and eggs 1.19 1.45 1.60 2.86 2.31 3.07

Total HVC's 26.8 28.4 33.9 37.6 30.8 37.8

Typology of Crop-Livestock Systems

• Typology of agriculture is a useful tool for technology dissemination and undertaking development initiatives that can be targeted to regions that are homogenous in their response

• Previous approaches on typology of agriculture were based on agro-climatic factors alone (rainfall, soils, LPG etc.)

• Using agricultural activity based approach a typology of agriculture is constructed that incorporates both agro-climatic and socio-economic features of the region that determine farmers choice of agricultural activities.

Publications – Instruments of Feedback

Market Research and Linking Farmers to Markets

Market Infrastructure and Agricultural Productivity

• Not only do HYVs and inputs (fertilizer, irrigation) increase agricultural productivity, but market density, well-connected road networks, and other infrastructure also promote aggregate agricultural productivity

• Free trade across regions within a country also contributes to higher aggregate agricultural productivity. For example, the elimination of Food Zones in India

Market Access and Productivity (contd…)

• Regions/sub-regions with good market access have higher productivity per unit of land compared to areas with poor market access

• Higher productivity is due to – Diversified cropping patterns – Better access to inputs – Better informed cropping and marketing decisions

Thus, investments in markets, related infrastructure, and removal of trade restrictions would enhance agricultural productivity over space and time

Changing Context of Markets

• A move away from subsistence agriculture • Increasing marketed surpluses with more than half being

marketed • Diversification of agriculture to horticulture, livestock,

fisheries, cash crops (demand driven) • Niche markets (pre specified or organic products, basmati

rice, vegetables) • Alternative uses of coarse cereals (poultry feed , alcohol) • Plough to plate linkages (Cost and quality imperatives) • Emergence of supermarkets • Exports (gherkins, grapes) • Consolidation of the processing sector

Consumer-Driven Supply Chains

Product-oriented (push) vs. market-oriented (pull) supply

chains

• Product-oriented or consumer-driven supply chains require product homogeneity, continuous deliveries, quality upgrades, large volumes

– Supplying the right product, of the right quality and quantity, at the right place and right time

• Such chains are successful when organized in a flexible, responsive and efficient way

Emerging Commodity Markets

• Contract farming (several models)

• Direct marketing (Rythu bazaars, Apni mandi)

• Cooperative marketing (milk)

• Bulk marketing (farmers’ associations)

• Forward markets / futures markets

• ICT enabled supply chains

• Specialized wholesalers

Horizontal and vertical integration to reduce transaction

costs and improve market efficiency

Innovation Systems: Linking Stakeholders for Research Impact

• Linear model of technology transfer

Researcher — extension —farmer

Not suitable

• Innovation systems model

– Innovation systems recognizes the importance of linkages, making contacts, partnerships, alliances and coalitions and the way these assist information flows

– Allows for a more diverse set of actors and relationships, e.g., scientists, public sector, private companies, NGOs, research managers, farmers;

– Each player contributing to the overall goal while meeting their own sub-goals

Plough-to-Plate Interventions

Past Interventions

Improved Cultivars Production technology

Increase in Yield

Bulk marketing

Better prices

Reduced MKT

costs

Input linkage

Output linkage

Credit linkage

Improved seeds and production technology

Increase in yield

Quality standards

Crop and warehouse loans

Cheaper capital

Cash need after harvest

Bulk Marketing: Innovation in Production–Supply Chain

Bulking and grading

Poultry feed

manufacturers

Input linkage

Farmers

Associations/

groups

Credit

linkages

Farmer 2

Poultry

producers

Poultry nutrition

Crop Research institutes

Poultry

Federation

Farmers

Federation

Warehouse/Community

storage structure

Farmer 3 Farmer 1

Poster available at www.egafr.org

Prize-winning poster at

the GFAR Conference,

2006 under the theme:

“Agricultural research for

development: Evidence

of contributions to

achieving the MDG on

poverty reduction.”

Projects based on Innovation Approach

• Exploring marketing opportunities through a research, industry and users coalition: sorghum for poultry feed Funded by DFID, target area: India, 2003 to 2004

• Enhanced utilization of sorghum and pearl millet grains in poultry feed industry to improve livelihoods of small-scale farmers in Asia Funded by CFC, target areas: India, China and Thailand,

2005-09

• Sweet sorghum ethanol value chain development (under innovative consortium approach involving all stakeholders)

Funded by NAIP, ICAR (World Bank) Target area: Andhra

Pradesh, India, 2007-11

69

Model Marketing Act to Address Emerging Market Scenario (Govt. of India, 2003)

Key additions and improvements:

• Setting up of new markets by private or other parties

• Separate markets for special commodities

• Direct marketing by farmers to agro-processors

• Provision for contract farming

• Futures or forward marketing

• Prohibition of commission agency in transactions with producers

• Formation of Farmers’ Associations for bulk marketing

• Pledge financing and instituting a system of negotiable warehouse receipts

• Ensuring complete transparency in the pricing system and transactions

• Dissemination of market intelligence information (arrivals and prices data)

• Promote public–private partnerships in the management of agricultural markets

Several states amending marketing acts to include provisions of Model Marketing Act

Publications

Key Findings Captured in Background Documents:

The Formulation of

Strategic Plans and Medium-Term Plans

Background documents…

… and the Resultant Strategies

Professional Spin-offs

• Recognition for contribution to agricultural research and development work under linking farmers to markets by:

- Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Sciences (LAAS), PR China; - Department of Agriculture, Kingdom of Thailand; - Government of Andhra Pradesh

• Invited Member to the Commission on Agriculture, Government of Andhra Pradesh

• Chairperson for the session on “Conservation Agriculture” at the Annual National Conference of Indian society of Agricultural Economics.

• Editorial Board Member for Agricultural Economics Research Review, Journal of Agricultural Economics Research Association, 2011-13

• Chairperson for the session on Livestock Marketing in India at the Annual National Conference of Indian Society of Agricultural Marketing

• Key note speaker on “Marketing Issues in Rainfed Agriculture in India”, at National Conference of Indian Society of Agricultural Marketing

• Invited speaker / represented ICRISAT at international and national workshops and conferences

• Best Journal Article MIP 2012 Annual Day

– Regional analysis of household consumption of India, Food Security, 2012

Professional Spin-offs (Contd...)

• Recognition by Liaoning Academy of Agricultural Sciences (LAAS), PR China - For promotion of sweet sorghum for ethanol value chain in Inner Mongolia, PR China

Professional Spin-offs (Contd...)

ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium