© United Nations Development Programme

Taimur KhiljiInclusive Growth and Poverty Reduction TeamAsia Pacific Regional Centre, Bangkok

Social Protection for MDG Achievement in Asia Pacific

Outline

} Why Social Protection?

} Scattered MDG performance

} Low Investment in Human Development

} Lack of Inclusive Growth

} High and Rising Inequality

} Greater Vulnerability

} Social Protection in Asia & Pacific

} Low expenditure

} Low coverage

} Where do we go from here?

Why Social Protection? Scattered MDG Performance

} On aggregate , Asia Pacific has performed well. It is on-track on a number of MDGs. However,

} There is significant diversity between countries and sub-regions} 13 LDCs (3 in South Asia, 4 in East Asia and 6 in the Pacific)

} Least (Tuvalu) and Most populated (China) country in Asia Pacific

} Region home to largest number of poor and hungry (majority in S.Asia)

} HDI values range from 0.88 (ROK) to 0.35 (AFG). Rank 12 and 155

} There is significant diversity within countries

} Disparities within countries…across sectors, rural vs. urban,

Source: HDR 2010

Why Social Protection? Low Investments in Human Development

South Asia East Asia and Pacific

Why Social Protection? Lack of Inclusive Growth

Source: World Bank, WDI 2011 Source: ILO Global Employment Trends 2011

Agriculture employs the MOST people, but contributes the

LEAST to GDP

Sector Contributions to GDP

Why Social Protection? High level of Inequality…

* Latest available figuresSource: World Bank, WDI 2011

Sources: ADB and UNDP (Gender HDR 2010)

Why Social Protection? High Inequality

Land and other Assets including financial are highly concentrated

Why Social Protection? Vulnerability

1990 2005 2015

East Asia and Pacific

54.7(873.3)

16.8(316.2)

5.9(119.0)

South Asia

51.7(579.2)

40.3(595.6)

22.4(379.3)

Population under $1.25 a day, %(millions of people)

Population under $ 2 a day, % (millions of people)

1990 2005 2015

East Asia and Pacific

79.8(1,273.7)

38.7(728.7)

19.7(213.4)

South Asia

82.7(926.0)

73.9(1091.5)

57.1(967.2)

Source: World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 2011, pp 13

• Number of working poor in South Asia: 285 million. Globally: 632 million.

Almost half in

South Asia

• Series of crises pushed more people into poverty! An additional 30 million will be remain poor in 2015 in Asia Pacific due to the GFC.

Over One

Billion in 2015

• Food insecurity, disasters, other shocks à Greater Vulnerability

Social Protection in Asia Pacific

Social Protection Expenditure (% of GDP) Social Protection Coverage (proportion of pop)

Source: ADB 2008

} Women

} Children / Youth

} Landless and small farmers

} Self-employed in informal sector (working poor)

} Unskilled and casual workers

} Migrant households

} Minorities and indigenous people

} Aged and disabled

} People in remote locations and backward areas

Where do we go from Here? Where do we go from Here? Fiscal Constraint?Fiscal Constraint?

IDENTIFY TARGET GROUPS -> Limited Resources

Where do we go from Here? Where do we go from Here? What sort of SP What sort of SP ProgrammesProgrammes??

Focus Areas: By MDG Priority for Asia Pacific

So focus of SP Programmes needs to be on

Source: ESCAP 2011

Pacific

Focus AreasBy MDG

Where do we go from Here? Where do we go from Here? What sort of SP What sort of SP ProgrammesProgrammes??

Focus Areas Focus Areas (BY BY MDGsMDGs)

ØHealth and Sanitation (MDG 4 & 5 and 7cMDG 4 & 5 and 7c)

ØEducation ( MDG 2MDG 2)

ØFood Security (MDG 1 cMDG 1 c)

ØIncome and Employment (MDG 1 a & bMDG 1 a & b)

Target Groups

Ideally all, but especially women, children, migrants households, working poor, minorities, households in remote locations, Aged and disabled.

Children /Youth, especially girls, women

Landless farmers, households in remote locations, migrants households, working poor, women and children

Women, youth, migrants, working poor, households in remote locations, landless farmers