Social Policy Perspectives from East Asia

- Dr. Mahesh Patel, UNICEF EAPRO

Florence, February 2012

EAP Economies doing very well …but income inequality has increased a lot!

Source: ADB (2007), except for Thailand (TDRI, 2007)

‐2 0 2 4 6

China

Cambodia

Lao PDR

Korea, Rep.

Vietnam

Philippines

Indonesia

Thailand

Malaysia

Changes in Gini Coefficient, Percentage Points (1990s ‐ Latest) 

…almost all the poor live in rural areas

Urban and RuralQuintiles:

thePoor and Rich

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Richest Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Third Quintile

Second Quintile

Poorest Quintile

Richest Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Third Quintile

Second Quintile

Poorest Quintile

Richest Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Third Quintile

Second Quintile

Poorest Quintile

Richest Quintile

Fourth Quintile

Third Quintile

Second Quintile

Poorest Quintile

Vie

tNam

Vanu

atu

Thai

land

Lao

PD

R

Source: MICS, 2005-2006.

RuralUrban

Poorest Quintile

Richest Quintile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

U5MR* FullyImmunized

Underweight Improvedwater

Attendedbirths

Improvedsanitation

Med

ian

gaps

(per

cent

age

poin

ts)

Wealth Quintile Geographic Urban/Rural Gender

Different types of Disparities are not equally large (MDGs 4, 5 and 7)

4.42%

3.40%

1.16%0.70%

0.24% 0.16% 0.11%0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

WC

AR

ESA

R

MEN

AR SA

CEE

/CIS

LAC

EAPR

ODA 2010 as % of GNI

0.66%

0.50%

0.39%

0.16%0.11%

0.43%

0.34%

0.20%0.25%

0.16%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

1991 1995 2001 2005 2010

Total ODA - Trend as % of GNI (1991-2010 )

EAPRLAC

Is ODA enoughto make “Aid Effectiveness” even matter?* EAPR TOTAL ODA

= 1/1,000 of GNI* UNICEF MICs RR =

2/1,000,000 of GNI China3/1,000,000 GNI Malaysia

‘Fixing’ disparities with ODA?

What is to be Done, esp. in MICs?• With 2-3 millionths of GNI we cannot achieve a widespread

reduction of disparities by targeted direct sectoral service provision!

• We need to focus on things like legislative and policy changes, KM & Advocacy, South-South facilitation,and evaluated success of demonstration projects…

• Reporting on progress indicators like “247 teachers trained” is useless.– We need to switch to strategic implementation landmarks such as:

1. Change of teaching methods in the pilot schools proven.2. Learning achievement of pupils proven.3. Government buy in for ‘going to scale’ achieved!

What matters is now we influence Government Expenditures

0 1 2 3

Centre

West

East

China budget expenditure per primary student (2003)

0 1 2 3 4 5

Jawa BaratLampung

Jawa TengahJawa Timur

Sumatera SelatanKalimantan Barat

Sumatera UtaraBengkulu

Sumatera BaratSulawesi Tengah

JambiKalimantan TengahKalimantan Selatan

RiauSulawesi UtaraDI Yogyakarta

AcehKalimantan Timur

Indonesia Govt. per capita health expenditure

Jawa Barat = 1

Sub-national government expenditure is low, varies a lot, and is regressive.

Geographical redistribution on thesupply side matters…!

And so the poor seek non-formal private careThe rich use formal private sector care

Not so many use the public sector

45

16

34

9

25

6

22

17

31

17

54

25

33

67

35

74

21

69

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cambodiapoorestquintile

Cambodiarichestquintile

Indonesiapoorestquintile

Indonesiarichestquintile

Philippinespoorestquintile

Phillipinesrichestquintile

Avg % of TotalTreatment inFormal Private

Avg % of TotalTreatment inPublic Sector

Avg % of TotalTreatment in NonFormal Private

Source: DHS Data (Cambodia 2005; Indonesia 2007; Philippines 2003

3.8

6.6

7.5 7.2

8.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Other ORR RR

UNICEF Social Policy funding stock-take: EAPR 2007-2011 RR, ORR, Other ($ Mill.)

Social Policy funding: EAPR in 2011Some staff may disappear, if/when RR declines…

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Mill

ions

$

Others ORR RR

3.58

11 12.5 11.5

10.5

13

13.5 11.516.5

5.5

6

6.5 6

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

GS NO IP

Social Policy Staff Stocktake: EAPR 2007 – 2011 IP, NO, GA (Whole Time Equivalents, Shared staff counted as 0.5 staff)

Breaking Silos within UNICEF… Opportunities for Working with SectorsSectors Potential Entry Points for Collaboration (ongoing)

Education Out of School Children Init., School grants and fees Study via ESAR(E.g. Mongolia-School Survey in MICS clusters, Grants & fees (4COs)

YCSD Marginal budgeting for bottlenecks, Investment case studies(E.g. Vanuatu – MBB; Myanmar, Vietnam – Health Insurance)

Child Protection

Case management for social protection beneficiaries(E.g. Philippines – 4Ps CCT programme)

Emergencies Vulnerability mapping (climate change, disaster risk reduction)(E.g. Thailand – Targeting of School-In-A-Box during floods)

Nutrition Strengthening supply linkages in context of CCTs(E.g. Indonesia - Nutrition/CCT Pilot)

Communicat-ions

Public advocacy based on child poverty research, sentinel site monitoring, budget analysis (E.g. Philippines – C4D in 4Ps CCT)

Monitoring and Evaluation

Greater use of MICS data for policy advocacy(E.g. Child Poverty advocacy in multiple countries)

All ProgrammeSections

Sectoral budgeting; Decentralization; Non-state providers, Extractives(E.g.China-Equitable +Efficient Financing Social Services )(Ext.4COs)

Social Policy Priorities: EAPR SP Network – Priorities and Actions

Priorities ActionsEngaging Ministries of Finance

Technical or high level meeting with Ministries of Finance in 1 year

Strengthening Social Policy Capacity

Budget and Staffing Analysis to engage senior management

Sustaining the Social Policy Network

Quarterly webinars to exchange experiences and brainstorm collectively

Breaking SilosRO: Work more with sectors at Regional level and keep COs informedCOs: Work more with sectors at country level and keep RO informed

COs: Forge ahead as usualRO: support COs however possible

COs: Forge ahead as usualRO: support COs however possible

Focus on the Action!• COs are increasingly integrating Social Policy with

Monitoring & Evaluation and Communications & Advocacy – which aim to provide services to Sectors– How do we take advantage of that trend?

• Social Policy should interact with, be useful to, and earn the respect of the sectoral programmes that are the main strength of Unicef and the Brand– Work on sector finance (insurance, decentralization, costing,

bottom up PETS, PPPs & NSPs), sectoral policy issues, investment cases…

• Collaborate PLUS identify a small number of areas of ‘pure’ Social Policy where Unicef can play a lead role

• Maintain stable funding for the Sector (funding for WES, Nutrition, and CEDC, has sometimes been unstable…)

Road to Pratolino - Social Policy Consultation – Comments on 10/02/12

• “The next main mission of UNICEF should therefore be, if I may, to continue social and economic policy work in partnership with professionals in the social ministries of developing countries.”– Timo Voipio; Chair, POVNET, OECD-DAC Paris,

Senior Adviser for Global Social Policy Finland; Member of UNICEF Soc. Ec. Policy Advisory Board

• “I wish donors also adjusted their funding orientation to support Unicef in doing what you say we should - assist policy formulation and capacity development.” Mahesh

• “I guess you are right. Also among the donor agencies we have coordination problems … We’ll try to do that now.”Timo Voipio

THANK YOU!

Website: www.unicef.org/eapro

Group-work: Feedback on draft document• Apologetic – We should focus on what TL needs to hear, not

(primarily) on what he wants to hear• Punchy – Focus on the rapidly changing operational

environment, the financial insignificance of Unicef funding, and need for fundamental change in the ways Unicef operates in countries

• Title - Include all 3 functions that reflect our actual workload –Social Policy, Economic Analysis, and Governance

• Maintain distinction of dual function of supporting Sectors and working on Inter-sectoral Policy, Analysis & Advocacy

• Explicitly cover links 2 Monitoring, Evaluation & Communications• Cluster of activities needs better structure, a logical flow, and a

“story-line”• Examples of success should be annexed, and grow, based on

RM’s compendium

UNICEF “core business” in Latin America & Caribbean(the inner circle of the “spider net”)

20072008

2009201020110.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Social Policy funding stocktake: EAPR 2007-2011RR + ORR + Other ($ Mill.)

20072008

20092010

20110

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

VTN CHI INDO THAI MALY PIS LPDR MGL MYN TIMR

Social Policy staffing stocktake: EAPR 2007 - 2011 All post types (WTE Part time staff counted as 0.5 staff)