a9 Pergamon

PII: SO966-6923(97)00018-5

Journal of TNnspn Geography Vol. 5, No. 3, 215-218, 1997 pp.

0 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved Printed in Great Britain

0966.6923197 $17.00+ 0.00

Social change and sustainable transport’

Kenneth Button The Institute of Public Policy, 305, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030-4444, USA

Peter Nijkamp Faculty of Economics, Free University DeBoelelaan 1105, NL-1081 HVAmsterdam, The Netherlands

There are important social changes that are influencing the way transport is now viewed. In particular, there are concerns that current trends in transport are not sustainable over the long term. This paper describes some of the main forces for social change and the way that they interact with transportation. It highlights a number of key areas were conceptual research work could prove advantageous and considers institutional mechanisms that would foster, in particular, transatlantic initiatives in these fields. 0 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved

Keywords: sustainable transport, social change, strategic research, transport policy

Social change does not occur at a constant pace. Rather there is a complex blend or package of modifi- cations to existing trends, new trends and trend breaks that interact to bring about changes to the way society develops. The process is also not unidirectional but embodies a range of important and still imperfectly understood feedback loops. A variety of factors make the late twentieth century a particularly important period in this respect. Rising incomes, more leisure time, changing demographic patterns, better education, technological advances, emerging life styles and new political priorities are among the factors influencing and being influenced by social change. These forces have, in very broad terms, led to outcomes of enhanced flexibility, fragmentation, polarization and differentia- tion in time and space.

Our understanding of the key driving forces for the new social structures is still limited. What is clear is that one important element in the process is linked to conflicting pressures of centrifugalism. Combinations of new networks, externalities and the breaking down of barriers have led to pressures on the one hand for geographical and social concentration and uniformity but on the other for diversity and spread. At one level this may be viewed in terms of the continued urbanisa-

‘Although this paper was not presented at Strasbourg, the authors were present and this paper represents their summary of the program being developed by NSF and ESF at the conclusion of that meeting.

215

tion of many societies but at the same time the growth in ‘nomadism’ not only in terms of location and job selection but also regarding shopping, recreational and other everyday activities. Transport considerations play an important role in shaping the nature and direction of centrifugal forces.

The forces bringing social change and the changes that emerge have linkages with all aspects of the social fabric. In a more specific context, transport is both an influence on the nature of social change and a reactor to it. We are, however, poorly informed about the role of social change in determining transport behaviour. Many of the important areas of interest, such as the interaction between changing household structure, travel behaviour and land-use, have been examined before but significant areas of ignorance remain. There are also newer issues, such as the interaction of trans- port and various communications systems on travel behaviour, land-use and social structure, which are adding to this area of ignorance.

Modern transport affords mobility, facilitates post- Fordist production and allows political cohesion. Degrees of access to transport networks affect social patterns at all levels of spatial aggregation. Transport supply, however, is regulated by political interests and market pressures both of which reflect changes in social attitudes, structures and priorities. Concerns about environmental degradation and economic efficiency are reflections of recent changes in social

216 Social change and sustainable transport: K Button and P Nukamp

Figure 1 A simple representative of key linkages between social change and transport development

attitudes towards transport. Figure I provides an indica- tion of some of the key interactions involved.

One tractable way of considering modern transport and mobility is to look at issues from three partly complementary, partly competing policy angles: the need for competitive efficiency, the need for geographical accessibility and social equity for all members of society, and the need for an environment- ally sustainable development. In the first place, competitive efficiency lies at the heart of current European transport policy, where massive investments in trans-European Networks and in missing links serve to support the goal of economic integration. However, also at local, metropolitan and regional scales, formid- able investment efforts are foreseen in order for main players to survive in a competitive world market based on global networks. This applies of course to trans- atlantic connections, but also has world-wide dimensions.

There is, in the second place, a major concern for the geographical accessibility of less central regions in Europe and elsewhere. The low density of transport needs in many rural and peripheral areas has always been a permanent source of concern of public authori- ties, from the viewpoint of both the service quality offered by public transport operators and the objectives set for regional development.

A look at the historical development of European infrastructure networks (road, rail, air, waterways) makes immediately clear that the most important links were first constructed between major centres of economic activity. The connections with rural and peripheral areas were, in all cases, delayed. Without granting a transport operator a natural monopoly, such connections would perhaps never have been realized. This is a clear case where efficiency motives and equity motives are in conflict with one another. In the emerging European welfare states, however, the rights of the rural and peripheral areas have been recognized

as legitimate claims, even though the economic feasi- bility of such ‘extra-central’ connections was often clearly negative. However, the equity argument, often reinforced by the ‘generative’ argument (i.e. an infra- structure, once constructed, will attract new activities), has played a major role in the political debate on subsidies for transport for the ‘mobility deprived’ in remote areas. In recent years however, we observe a drastic change in the policy views on the ‘obligatory’ provisions of financial support that would ensure public service delivery to remote areas. Firstly, in the phase of economic recession, public budgets are often far too insufficient to cover the related costs. Secondly, in the period of deregulation, decentralization and privatisa- tion, commercial arguments have strongly come to the fore. This means that economic feasibility has become a major motive for sustaining transport connections to rural and peripheral areas.

The above development has had far-reaching impli- cations for the morphology, the service level and the competitiveness of different networks. This applies to rail and bus services, to ferry systems, to road networks and to the aviation sector. This means that the connec- tivity of remote areas may become a problematic issue in the future. Despite European initiatives to plan for trans-European Networks (TENS), there is a real threat that remote areas may again suffer from ‘missing links’ It goes without saying that similar policy and research issues are also emerging in other parts of the world.

In the third place, there is a major, more recent policy concern on the question of whether transport will be devastating for environmentally sustainable development. Our mobile society fulfils many socio- economic needs, but calls at the same time for social and political change in order to attain sustainable mobility. Both passenger and goods transport have rapidly increased in the past years, and for the time being, there is no reason to expect a change in this trend. Some European scenarios even forecast a doubling of transport in one generation. This develop- ment provokes intriguing questions on the external (social) costs of transport, such as congestion, pollution and safety issues. Apart from local problems such as congestion or noise, the global environmental implica- tions of transport are increasingly becoming a source of major concern. Although transport is responsible for a variety of greenhouse gas emissions, in recent years the attention has particularly focused on CO, emissions. Despite the best intentions of many public policies, it seems to be very hard to curb the current emission trends. If one takes into consideration the expected economic growth in various Second and Third World countries, the future does not offer a very optimistic picture. The background of the externality problem of transport is caused by the fact that transport has low private costs accompanied by unpriced or underpriced external social costs. This has created a transport-

Social change and sustainable transport: K Button and P Nijkmnp 217

intensive lifestyle and land-use in all countries, regions and cities.

That transport affects local and global environments in many ways can be illustrated by the following figures. For a number of pollutants, the transport sector is the most important contributor to environ- mental externalities. Within member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Develop- ment, about 60% of the NO, ‘emissions, 80% of the CO emissions, 50% of the hydrocarbon emissions, 25% of the CO, emissions, and 50% of the lead emissions (virtually 100% in urban areas) originate from trans- port activities. Safety and noise are also often mentioned as important environmental external costs of transport.

Notwithstanding the central role that transport plays in modern societies, it is increasingly recognized that current and predicted trends in personal mobility and freight transport, on local, regional and global levels, pose severe threats to the environment, and more stringent regulations of transport seem inevitable if policy goals related to global environmental sustain- ability are to be pursued. The European Union’s recent ‘Green Paper’ Commission of the European Commu- nities (1995) on transport leaves little ambiguity in this respect when stating that “. . .given the severity of the problems, action cannot be put off [. . . and.. .] adjusting the structure of existing tax systems by bringing charges closer to the point of use is likely to generate signifi- cant benefits”. Indeed, economic instruments, advocated by transport economists as an efficient means of regulating transport externalities for over 75 years, now appear to have gained a momentum outside of the academic world.

In recent years, many proposals have been made to favour less environmentally damaging transport systems and behaviour, ranging though road pricing, technological advances, technical standards, compact city design and land-use policy. The results, thus far, have not been impressive. Although standard economic concepts are clear in that the user and the polluter should pay the full costs of travel, including all externalities, there are many problems with the imple- mentation of such concepts, public acceptability is low and international agreements are difficult to reach.

The need for sustainable mobility and alternative land-use policies has recently been recognized in the European Union. The massive investment foreseen in the transport and communications networks, particu- larly on a regional and international basis, is likely to increase journey lengths and the level of mobility. These outcomes are inconsistent with the objectives put forward by the European Union and its member states; and hence, there is potential conflict between socio-economic needs and sustainable mobility needs. Furthermore, there are also changes in lifestyles (e.g. individualisation and more leisure time) which have an impact on transportation behaviour. Some of the

(advocated) changes are rather far reaching, as reflected, for example, in car-less cities, new time pioneers going for slow motion, and so forth.

The intellectual and, ultimately, policy challenge is to develop transport structures that are both socially sustainable and environmentally sustainable. This is unlikely to be achieved by adopting a narrow, mono- disciplinary approach to the issues. Nor, given the increased internationalization of lifestyles, is it likely to be found without international cooperation and coordination in the research initiative.

The research agenda required to address all relevant issues is lengthy. Some initial economies may be achieved by drawing together the experience of the various European initiatives and those from the USA where similar social changes are taking place. This would need a clear focus on inter alia social and cultural values, changes in industrial organisation, demographic change, shifts in household patterns and behaviour, and gender roles.

A number of key areas would form the core of work on social change and sustainable transport.

Firstly, there are important issues concerning the changes that are occurring in urban societies as major agents in a networked economy, not only as core economic agents but also as drivers of new life styles and adopters of new mobility patterns. Essentially, if cities are to be both socially and environmentally sustainable into the next century, transport systems will need to be redefined and developed. Urban society will inevitably want different things from their transport systems, and equally, there will be innovations in technology and institutions that will increase the options available. How these new social requirements interact with the different opportunities available and the way that potential mechanisms may develop to foster appropriate inventions are inevitably going to pose important intellectual challenges. Efforts in the past that have largely relied on engineering approaches to confront conflicts between social and environmental sustainability conflicts have failed, but nothing has yet emerged to fill the gap. Thus, there is a clear need for research into behavioural responses in terms of mobility. Clearly, the implications of urban develop- ments for more peripheral areas would need some attention as well.

Secondly, there are issues of the extent to which society itself will be influenced by the adoption of a sustainable transport strategy. While a body of research has emerged looking at the way factors such as mobility and location choice may be influenced by various forms of traffic management approaches, longer-term feedback effects on other aspects of lifestyles stemming from the pursuit of sustainability have been largely ignored. The evidence from all areas of transport policy is that both users of transport services and the suppliers of services are very adaptable and innovative. This is one reason why transport

218 Social change and sustainable transport: K Button and P Nijkamp

forecasts are generally so dismally bad. One would explore this area in a number of innovative ways, pulling in a variety of research techniques that combine quantitative assessments with qualitative judgments. One can draw upon the experiences of previous social changes in social structures, such as that to post- Fordism, to define and examine social adaptation and development and explore theme relevance in the context of a move to a sustainable transport system.

Thirdly, internationalization and the move toward greater globalization would not be possible without recent technical and structural changes in transport. Global resource constraints, however, are likely to pose new challenges to this emerging structure and to the social patterns that are accompanying it. This will not only affect trade, but by potentially limiting travel, will have implications for migration. These developments raise a range of important research issues looking at the role of transport in this institutional setting and seeking sustainable options that, at the same time, do not thwart the material ambitions of less prosperous areas currently seeking to benefit from internationali- zation. It poses institutional research questions regarding local and global responsibilities for handling the social changes associated with new transport strate- gies. The complexity of the social changes that are now taking place, combined with those that may be antici- pated in the near future, means that any research agenda must meet certain criteria. The diversity of social influences involved points towards a multi- disciplinary approach across a wide number of countries. Within this, it is important to both pinpoint synergies and to highlight differences in experiences. Above all, the research programme needs to be researchable with the prospect of generating both major new conceptual insights and enveloping tractable frameworks upon which policies may be developed. To carry through this work at the international level the integration with the US initiative by the National Science Foundation (NSF) will require careful coordi- nation. To gain significantly more insight into these issues is both intellectually challenging and, in the longer term, of considerable policy relevance. Trans- atlantic co-operation offers a number of important advantages when dealing with a topic such as ‘social change and sustainable transport’.

Firstly, there are important common scientific research concerns which transcend geographical boundaries and a pooling of research expertise, data and resources offers the potential for an enrichment of the research effort. At one level, co-operation in research enables existing scientific findings to be

brought together, but in the longer term, co-operation will reduce overlap in research initiatives and generate benefits which can accompany research teams drawn from a larger pool of resources. Secondly, there are important demonstration effects which can be learned across the Atlantic. Individual, ad hoc case studies in the transport field seldom produce transferable experi- ences. Wider collaboration drawing upon a large number of cases or on very specific examples can, however, offer important insights. Thirdly, there is the need for direct research on matters pertaining to trans- atlantic transport itself. International aviation is the fastest growing sector of the passenger transport market being driven increasingly by changes in house- hold characteristics and preferences rather than by business sector demands. The NSF provides a single focus for US funding but there is no comparable body in Europe. The European Science Foundation acts through national research councils. At the outset it is important that full information concerning relevant activities at the national level be collected and system- atically reviewed; the use of meta-analysis or subjective quantitative assessment methods may assist in this. There are also important experiences to be shared and potentially interesting sets of case studies to be developed across the Atlantic. To fully implement such opportunities, there is a need to explore common methodological approaches and comparable databases, the latter with the potential for serving the needs of future research initiatives that extend beyond the current initiative.

The above-sketched research lines are of a long-term strategic nature. In the immediate future some preparatory activities may already be initiated, in particular, the development of an up-to-date informa- tion system on strategic transport knowledge in both Europe and North America (i.e. names of researchers, fields of interest, and so forth). Soon also some applied work on long-range future scenarios on social change and sustainable transport may be started as a really social-science-oriented, interdisciplinary research challenge. In this context, not only the transatlantic side of international transport and communication would have to be envisaged, but also the linkages to Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean basin and the Middle-East.

References

Commission of the European communities (1995) Green Paper Towards Fair and Eficient Pricing in Transporr Policy Options for Intemalising the External Costs of Transport in the European Union, Director General for Transport: Brussels.