Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Transcript of Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Based on a Nationally Representative Sample of Men and Women of n 500 in
AJK
Field Work Conducted during 10th July to 15th July 2021
Error Margin: +-2 to 3% at 95% Confidence Level
July 19, 2021
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Table of Contents
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Table of Contents
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
PART 1: FINDINGS
Topic 1: Problem of the area
Item 1.1: In your opinion, what is the biggest problem faced by your city/
village/ area?
Topic 2: Perception about the services of area
Item 2.1: How much satisfied you are regarding government health
services like hospitals and dispensaries etc of your area?
Item 2.2: How much satisfied you are regarding the government
schools/colleges etc of your area?
Item 2.3: How much satisfied you are regarding the peace and security
situation of your area?
Item 2.4: How much satisfied you are regarding the streets/roads of your
area?
Item 2.5: How much satisfied you are regarding the transport services of
your area?
Item 2.6: How much satisfied you are regarding the electricity supply of
your area?
Item 2.7: How much satisfied you are regarding the gas supply of your
area?
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Topic 3: Perception about Political Leaders
Item 3.1: How is your overall opinion about Imran Khan? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Item 3.2: How is your overall opinion about Nawaz Sharif? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Item 3.3: How is your overall opinion about Shahbaz Sharif? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Item 3.4: How is your overall opinion about Maryam Nawaz? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Item 3.5: How is your overall opinion about Bilawal Bhutto Zardari? Is it very
good, good, bad or very bad?
Topic 4: Perception about performance of President & PM
Item 4.1: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s president ‘Sardar Masood Khan’?
Item 4.2: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s current prime minister Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider
Khan?
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
Item 5.1: Which party do you think will win in the general elections that are
to be held on 25th July 2021?
Item 5.2: Many people are of the opinion that on 25th July, the elections in
Azad Kashmir will be fair and free while some think that the
elections will not be free and fair. What is your opinion on this?
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Topic 6: Pereception about general topics
Item 6.1: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes
your siblings, children and parents) lives abroad?
Item 6.2: How would you consider your household’s economic situation?
Item 6.3: Do you or someone in your household own agricultural land?
Item 6.4: What was the main reason to cultivate land?
Item 6.5: What is the main source of your household income?
PART 2: DEMOGRAPHICS Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan has conducted this poll according to the ESOMAR Code of Ethics and internationally
recognized principles of scientific polling. The results in this Report do not represent views held by the authors or
Gallup Pakistan. The results only represent public opinion, computed on the basis of views expressed by anonymous
respondents selected through the procedure outlined in the Methodology section of this Report.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Executive Summary
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Executive Summary
Section 1: Problems in the area
Broken and poorly maintained roads cited as the biggest problem by 24%
respondents in AJK. 13% say lack of clean drinking water while 10% say
electricity load shedding. 8% say inflation.
Section 2: Perception about services in the area
58% respondents expressed dissatisfaction over government health services
in the area.
53% are satisfied with government school/colleges in the area.
86% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the peace and security situation in
their area.
59% have expressed dissatisfaction with the situation of roads and streets in
their area.
55% are satisfied with the transport services in their area.
44% in AJK expressed satisfaction with the electricity supply in their area
while 52% expressed dissatisfaction in this regard.
71% in AJK say that gas supply is not available in their area. 18%
respondents are dissatisfied with the gas supply in their area while 10% are
satisfied.
Section 3: Perception about political leaders: Approval rating
highest for Imran Khan
68% respondents in AJK have a positive opinion of Imran Khan.
47% have a positive opinion of Nawaz Sharif.
48% have a positive opinion of Shahbaz Sharif.
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45% have a positive opinion of Maryam Nawaz.
49% have a positive opinion of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.
Section 4: Perception on performance of President and PM
60% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s current Prime Minister, Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider Khan.
44% respondents in AJK are satisfied with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s president, Sardar Masood Khan.
Section 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
Intention to vote: (High intention to vote in the upcoming elections)
94% respondents are likely to vote in the upcoming election while 6%
have no intention to vote.
Expected winners:
44% in AJK think that PTI will win the election on 25th July 2021. 12% say
PML-N while 9% say PPP.
Expected fairness of the elections to be held on 25th July:
53% respondents in AJK believe that the elections will be free and fair. 30%
think that they will not be free and fair while 17% are unsure.
Section 6: Perception about general topics
39% people from AJK say that someone from their immediate family lives
abroad.
33% said that someone from their immediate family lives outside Kashmir but
within Pakistan.
44% in AJK claim that they or someone in their household owns agricultural
land.
Fulfilling family’s dietary needs (59%) is the main reason why people in AJK
cultivate land. 32% cited cultural factors/societal pressures while 7% say that
they cultivate land to sell the produce in the market.
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56% respondents cite employment/business in AJK as their main source of
income. 26% cite employment/business in Pakistan as their mains source of
income 14% cite employment/business in EU/North America while 4% cite
employment/business in the Gulf/Middle East as their main source of income.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 1: Problem of the area
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TOPIC 1
Problem of the area
This Topic has 1 item. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
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Topic 1: Problem of the area
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Item 1.1: Key Finding
Question: In your opinion, what is the biggest problem faced by your city/
village/ area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Qشہر / گاؤں/ علاقے کا سب سے بڑا مسئلہ کیا ہے ؟ خیال میں آپ کے پ کے آ
_____________________:سب سے بڑا مسئلہ
24%
13%
10%9%
8%6%
4%3% 3% 3% 3%
1% <1%
11%
3%
<1%
Bro
ken
an
d p
oo
rly
mai
nta
ine
d r
oad
s
Lack
of
cle
an d
rin
kin
g w
ater
Ele
ctri
city
load
-sh
edd
ing
Un
em
plo
ymen
t
Infl
atio
n
Edu
cati
on
issu
es
Mo
bile
Se
rvic
e +
Ne
two
rk
Po
vert
y
Co
rru
pti
on
Gas
loa
d-s
he
dd
ing
He
alth
fac
iliti
es
Po
or
syst
em o
fcl
ean
line
ss/g
arb
age
etc
.
The
fts/
rob
ber
ies
etc
.
No
pro
ble
m
Oth
er
DK
/NR
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 1: Problem of the area
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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TOPIC 2
Perception about the services of area
This Topic has 7 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Item 2.1: Key Finding
Question: How much satisfied you are regarding government health services
like hospitals and dispensaries etc of your area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = -21%
.Q ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ وغیرہ کی اور ڈسپنسری ہسپتال ی عن ی ات ی سہول سرکاری طبی موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ
مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 مطمئن تھوڑے بہت
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ریغ ادہ یبہت ز
5 ں یسہولت موجود نہ ہی
Item 2.2: Key Finding
5%
33%
14%
44%
4%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Very dissatisfied This facility is notavailable in our
area
37%
58%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the government
schools/colleges etc of your area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = 13%
.Q ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک رہ ی اسکول/کالج وغ ی سرکار موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن مطمئن، تھوڑے مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
9%
44%
14%
27%
5%1%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Verydissatisfied
This facility isnot available in
our area
DK/NR
53%
40%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
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TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Item 2.3: Key Finding
Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the peace and security
situation of your area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating (Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = 73%
.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک صورتحال ی امن وامان ک موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
42% 44%
5%8%
1% <1%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Verydissatisfied
This facility isnot available in
our area
DK/NR
86%
13%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
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Item 2.4: Key Finding
Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the streets/roads of your
area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = -24%
.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ات ی سہول ی / سڑکوں ک وں ی گل موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
7%
29%
20%
39%
5%
<1%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Verydissatisfied
This facility isnot available in
our area
DK/NR
36%
60%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Item 2.5: Key Finding
Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the transport services of
your area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = 13%
.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ات ی ٹرانسپورٹ کا نظام / سہول موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی ے بہت غ تھوڑ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
Item 2.6: Key Finding
12%
43%
20%22%
3%<1%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Verydissatisfied
This facility isnot available in
our area
DK/NR
55%
42%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the electricity supply of
your area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating (Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = -7%
.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ی سپلائ ی ک ی بجل موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ
مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
7%
37%
22%
30%
3%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Very dissatisfied This facility is notavailable in our
area
45%52%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 2: Perception about the services of area
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Item 2.7: Key Finding
Question: How much satisfied you are regarding the gas supply of your
area?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = -9%
.Q مطمئن، تھوڑے بہت مطمئن، تھوڑے ادہ ی ۔ بہت ز ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک ی سپلائ ی ک س ی گ موجود ں ی اپنے علاقے م آپ
مطمئن ؟ ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز ا ی مطمئن ر ی بہت غ
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 تھوڑے بہت مطمئن
3 مطمئن ر ی تھوڑے بہت غ
4 مطمئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
5 ں ی سہولت موجود نہ ہ ی
2%8% 10% 9%
71%
1%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Verydissatisfied
This facility isnot available in
our area
DK/NR
9%
18%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
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Positive Rating
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Negative Rating
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
86%
55% 53%45%
37% 36%
9%
Pea
ce a
nd
sec
uri
tysi
tuat
ion
Tran
spo
rt s
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Go
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/co
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osp
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s an
dd
isp
ensa
ries
etc
.
Stre
ets/
road
s
Gas
su
pp
ly60% 58%
52%
42% 40%
18%13%
Stre
ets/
road
s
Go
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tal h
ealt
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osp
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Pea
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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TOPIC 3
Perception about Political Leaders
This Topic has 5 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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Item 3.1: Key Finding
Question: How is your overall opinion about Imran Khan? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating (Positive VS Negative)
NET RATING = 40%
.Q ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی عمران خان کے بارے م ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع
1 بہت اچھی
2 اچھی
3 خراب
4 بہت خراب
8 معلوم نہیں
36%
32%
9%
18%
5%
Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR
67%
27%
Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
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Item 3.2: Key Finding
Question: How is your overall opinion about Nawaz Sharif? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Positive VS Negative)
NET RATING = 1%
.Q ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م ف ی نواز شر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع
1 بہت اچھی
2 اچھی
3 خراب
4 بہت خراب
8 معلوم نہیں
20%
27%
24%22%
8%
Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR
46% 46%
Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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Item 3.3: Key Finding
Question: How is your overall opinion about Shahbaz Sharif? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Positive VS Negative)
NET RATING = 9%
Q. بہت خراب ؟ ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م ف ی شہباز شر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع
1 بہت اچھی
2 چھی ا
3 خراب
4 بہت خراب
8 معلوم نہیں
10%
38%
22%18%
12%
Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR
48%
40%
Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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Item 3.4: Key Finding
Question: How is your overall opinion about Maryam Nawaz? Is it very good,
good, bad or very bad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating (Positive VS Negative)
NET RATING = 2%
.Q بہت خراب ؟ ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی کے بارے م نواز م ی مر ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع
1 بہت اچھی
2 اچھی
3 خراب
4 بہت خراب
8 معلوم نہیں
12%
33%
22% 21%
12%
Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR
45% 43%
Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
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Item 3.5: Key Finding
Question: How is your overall opinion about Bilawal Bhutto Zardari? Is it very
good, good, bad or very bad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating (Positive VS Negative)
NET RATING = 11%
Q. ؟ بہت خراب ا ی خراب ، ی اچھ ، ی بہت اچھ ی عن ی ہے؟ ی س ی رائے ک ں ی بلاول بھٹو کے بارے م ی طور پر اپ ک ی مجموع
1 بہت اچھی
2 اچھی
3 خراب
4 بہت خراب
8 معلوم نہیں
8%
41%
26%
12% 13%
Very good Good Bad Very bad DK/NR
49%38%
Positive (Very Good + Good) Negative (Bad + Very Bad)
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 3: Perception about Political Leaders
29 | P a g e
Positive Rating
Negative Rating
67%
49% 48% 46% 45%
Imra
n K
han
Bila
wal
Bh
utt
o
Shah
baz
Sh
arif
Naw
az S
har
if
Mar
yam
Naw
az46%
43%40% 38%
27%
Naw
az S
har
if
Mar
yam
Naw
az
Shah
baz
Sh
arif
Bila
wal
Bh
utt
o
Imra
n K
han
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 4: Perception about performance of President & PM
30 | P a g e
TOPIC 4
Perception about performance of President & PM
This Topic has 2 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 4: Perception about performance of President & PM
31 | P a g e
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
32 | P a g e
Item 4.1: Key Finding
Question: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s president ‘Sardar Masood Khan’?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = -3%
. .Q ؟ ں ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک سردار مسعود خان زاد کشمیر صدر ا کہ آپ ں ی بتائ ی برائے مہربان
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 حد تک مطمئن ی کس
3 مطمئن ر ی حد تک غ ی کس
4 ممطئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
Item 4.2: Key Finding
6%
38%
15%
32%
8%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Very dissatisfied DK/NR
44% 47%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
33 | P a g e
Question: Please tell, how satisfied are you with the performance of Azad
Kashmir’s current prime minister Raja Muhammad Farooq Haider
Khan?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
Rating
(Satisfied VS Dissatisfied)
NET RATING = 25%
.Q ں؟ ی سے کس حد تک مطمئن ہ ی کارکردگ ی ک خان در ی اعظم راجہ محمد فاروق ح ر ی وز کے موجودہ ر ی کہ آپ آزاد کشم ں ی بتائ ی برائے مہربان
1 مطمئن ادہ ی بہت ز
2 حد تک مطمئن ی کس
3 مطمئن ر ی حد تک غ ی کس
4 ممطئن ر ی غ ادہ ی بہت ز
14%
46%
2%
33%
3%
Very satisfied Somewhatsatisfied
Somewhatdissatisfied
Very dissatisfied DK/NR
61%
36%
Satisfied Dissatisfied
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
34 | P a g e
TOPIC 5
Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
This Topic has 7 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
35 | P a g e
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
36 | P a g e
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Item 5.1: Key Finding
Question: Which party do you think will win in the general elections that are to
be held on 25th July 2021?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q ؟ یتےگیج یپارٹ یکونس ںیکو ہونے والے عام انتخابات م 2021 یجولائ 25 ںیم الیآپ کے خ
کا نام : ۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔۔ یپارٹ
12%9%
44%
3% 1% <1% 1% 1% <1%
28%
PM
L-N
PP
P
PTI
MC
JKP
P
JIA
JK
Teh
reek
-e-L
abai
k
Ind
epen
de
nt
Can
did
ate
Oth
ers
DK
/NR
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Topic 5: Voting Intention and Expected Voting Behavior
37 | P a g e
Item 5.2: Key Finding
Question: Many people are of the opinion that on 25th July, the elections in
Azad Kashmir will be fair and free while some think that the
elections will not be free and fair. What is your opinion on this?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q کے صاف شفاف ہونگے، جبکہ یدھاندل ریہونے والے انتخابات بغ ںیم ریکو آزاد کشم 2021 یجولائ 25ہے کہ الیبعض لوگوں کا خ
ہے؟ ارائےیک ںی اس بارے م یہونگے۔ آپ ک ںیہے انتخابات شفاف نہ الیبعض لوگوں کا خ
1 انتخابات صاف شفاف ہونگے
2 ہونگے ںیانتخابات صاف شفاف نہ
53%
30%
17%
Elections will be freeand fair
Elections will not befree and fair
DK/NR
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
38 | P a g e
TOPIC 6
Pereception about general topics
This Topic has 6 items. Key Findings and Statistical Analysis for each
of them are provided ahead in this section.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
39 | P a g e
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Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
40 | P a g e
Item 6.1: Key Finding
Question: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes
your siblings, children and parents) lives abroad?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q رونی( ب ںیماں، باپ شامل ہ ، یٹی ٹا،بیب ، ی صرف بہن، بھائ ںیفرد )ان افراد م یآپ کے گھرا نے کا کوئ ایکہ ک ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان
؟ ںیملک رہتے ہ
1 ہاں
2 نہیں
Yes 39%
No 61%
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
41 | P a g e
Item 6.2: Key Finding
Question: Please tell whether anyone from your household (this only includes
your siblings, children and parents) lives outside Kashmir but in
Pakistan?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q ری( کشمںیماں، باپ شامل ہ ،یٹی ٹا،بی ب ،یصرف بہن، بھائ ںیفرد )ان افراد م یآپ کے گھرا نے کا کوئ ایکہ ک ں یبتائ ی برائے مہربان
؟رہتے ہیں میں پاکستان کنیسے باہر ل 1 ہاں
2 نہیں
Yes 33% No 67%
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
42 | P a g e
Item 6.3: Key Finding
Question: How would you consider your household’s economic situation?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q گے؟ ںیکر انیب سےی صورتحال کو ک یمعاش یکہ آپ اپنے گھرانے ک ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان
1 ریام
2 متوسط طبقہ یاپرمڈل کلاس / اعل
3 مڈل کلاس / متوسط طبقہ
4 ب یغر
5 ب یبہت غر
5% 6%
59%
19%
11%
<1%
Rich Upper- middle-class
Middle-class Poor Very poor DK/NR
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
43 | P a g e
Item 6.4: Key Finding
Question: Do you or someone in your household own agricultural land?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q کا مالک ہے؟ نیزم ی( زرعیٹیب ٹا، یب ،یماں، باپ، بہن، بھائ یعنی) فرد یآپ کے گھرانے کے کوئ ا یآپ ایک
1 ہاں
2 نہیں
Yes 44%
No 56%
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
44 | P a g e
Item 6.5: Key Finding
Question: What was the main reason to cultivate land?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q ؟ ہے ای وجہ ک یادی بن یکرنے ک یباڑ یتیکاشت کرنے /کھ نیکہ زم ںیبتائ یبرائے مہربان
1 مارکیٹ میں پیداوار کی فروخت کرنا
2 کو پورا کرنے کے لئے اتیضرور یک / کھانے پینے کی اشیاء خوراک انے کی اپنے گھر
سماجی کرنا پڑتا ہے، ہیکرتے تھے لہذا آپ کو زمین کاشت / کھیتی باڑی یکہ آپ کے دادا داد سےیعوامل ج یثقافت
رہ یعلامت سمجھا جاتا ہے، وغ /شگونرا کو ب نیبنجر زم ونکہیک کی وجہ سےدباؤ 3
7%
59%
32%
2%
To sell agricultureproduce in the market
To fulfil your family’s dietary needs
Cultural factors like yourgrandparents used to
cultivate the land so youhave to do it, due tosocietal pressures as
barren land is consideredto be a bad omen /
symbol, etc.
No Response
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
TOPIC 6: Pereception about general topics
45 | P a g e
Item 6.6: Key Finding
Question: What is the main source of your household income?
Source: Survey Conducted by Gallup Pakistan, July 10 - July 15, 2021
.Q ہے؟ ایک عہیذر یادیکا بن یآمدن لویگھر یآپ ک 1 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیم ریآزاد کشم
2 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیپاکستان م
3 ملازمت / کاروبار ںیممالک م یوسط ی/ مشرق چیخل
56%
26%
4%
14%
Employment /business in Azad
Kashmir
Employment /business in Pakistan
Employment /business in the Gulf
/ Middle East
DK/NR
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Demographics and Methodology
46 | P a g e
PART 2: Demographics and Methodology Note
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Demographics and Methodology
47 | P a g e
Methodology of Gallup Pakistan
Pre-Election Surveys
Field-Work Dates: 10th July to 15th July 2021
Mode of Interview: Telephonic Interviewers
Sample Size: 500+ Male and Female
Error Margin: +5-7% at 95% confidence level
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Demographics and Methodology
48 | P a g e
Disclaimer on Pre-Election Surveys:
Pre-Election surveys are good enough to predict most likely winner
and loser but cannot predict the margin of victory. Victory margin
depends on who turns up to vote or stays at home.
One of the largest barriers faced by pre-election voting intention
polling is estimating how many people will turn out to vote. Even
people who say they are certain to cast a ballot sometimes don't
turnout.
Similarly, voters can and do change their voting intentions prior to
and on voting day, which can cause significant deviation in
results. Gallup therefore advises caution and responsibility in use of
Pre-election surveys.
Pre-election polls are more than just prediction for who would win.
Although election polls attract a great deal of attention for their
ability to predict the outcome of elections, their most important
function is to help journalists and citizens understand the meaning
of the campaign and the election. Polls help to explain, among
other things, what issues are important, how candidate qualities
may affect voters’ decisions, and how much support there is for
particular policy changes.
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Demographics and Methodology
49 | P a g e
Note on Sample Size
Our sample size of 500 respondents allows us to be representative of the of
the total AJK wide vote districtution. Within the AJK the sample is distributed
and reported across various demographic groups (for example Gender)
where the effective sample size becomes smaller and therefore Error margin
applicable also changes.
The sample size used in this survey is quite adequate even in comparison to
international standards. Gallup US Daily poll is 500 and the Gallup Poll Social
Series is 1000, both having track record of reliable predictability for USA (a
country nearly 100 million larger in population of Pakistan). According to Five
Thirty Eight, one of the most credible sources on polling in the US: "Surveying
2,000 voters substantially reduces error compared with surveying 400 of
them, but surveying 10,000 voters will produce only marginal improvements
in accuracy compared with the 2,000- person survey".
Obviously, choosing a higher confidence interval will give greater accuracy
to the survey results, however, as the chart below shows, at a certain point
the benefits of conducting more surveys begins to tail off:
25 interviews has a confidence interval of 19.6 and 100 interviews has a
confidence interval of 9.8, whilst it falls to 4.4 at 500 interviews and 3.1 at 1000
interviews. However, a further 1000 interviews only lowers the confidence
interval by 0.9 to 2.2. A confidence interval of 1 (not shown on the graph)
would require a massive 9604 interviews.
Is a larger sample always better than a smaller sample?
Social and Political Pulse of Azad Jammu Kashmir
Demographics and Methodology
50 | P a g e
Larger samples are generally more precise, but sometimes not. The
important rule in sampling is not how many poll respondents are selected
but, instead, how they are selected. A reliable sample selects poll
respondents randomly or in a manner which insures that everyone in the
area being surveyed has a known chance of being selected.
How do you interpret Error Margins?
How do you interpret a margin of error? Suppose you know that 51% of
people sampled say that they plan to vote for Mr X in the upcoming
election. Now, projecting these results to the whole voting population, you
would have to add and subtract the margin of error and give a range of
possible results in order to have sufficient confidence that you’re bridging
the gap between your sample and the population. Supposing a margin of
error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, you would be pretty confident
that between 48% (= 51% – 3%) and 54% (= 51% + 3%) of the population will
vote for Mr X in the election, based on the sample results. In this case, Mr X
may get slightly more or slightly less than the majority of votes and could
either win or lose the election. This has become a familiar situation in recent
years when the media want to report results on Election Night, but based on
early exit polling results, the election is “too close to call.”
What Error Margins do not mean
The margin of error measures accuracy; it does not measure the amount of
bias that may be present. Results that look numerically scientific and precise
don’t mean anything if they were collected in a biased way
Page 51 of 51
Contact details:
Email: [email protected]
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www.gallup-international.com
Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup
International Association see website: www.gallup-international.com
Gallup Pakistan has conducted this poll according to the ESOMAR Code of Ethics and internationally recognized principles of scientific polling. The results in this Report do not represent views held by the authors or Gallup Pakistan. The results only represent public opinion, computed on the basis of views expressed by anonymous respondents selected through the procedure outlined in the Methodology section of this Report.