So who won?

• 1st: Sunday morning

• 2nd: Saturday afternoon

• 3rd: Saturday morning

• 4th: Sunday afternoon

Wikipedia!

• Flux tower time series Sat/Sun

BAMS State of the Climate 2011

2090 (IPCC 4th Assessment)

Locally: Warmer winters, drier summers

http://www.wicci.wisc.edu/

Summer

Winter

Temperature Precipitation

Three Big Ideas

• Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people

• However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide

• Ecosystems and its constituents play a big and complicated role through the global carbon cycle and currently absorb half of our fossil fuel emissions

Fig. 1.1Chapin et al., 20118/29/11

• Source: NIACS, USFS

Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

The dashed land-use change line does not include management-climate interactions

The land sink was a source in 1987 and 1998 (1997 visible as an emission)Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012

• Climate changes with:– A change in forcing (sun strength, Earth’s

orbit, volcano frequency, greenhouse gases)

– Is amplified by positive feedbacks

Booth et al., 2012

The carbon cycle feedback is large and hard to predict

RegionalTall tower

Maturehardwood

Shrubwetland

Old-growthmixed forest

Source to atmosphere

Sink from atmosphere

Buffam et al., 2011

Three Big Ideas

• Our burning of almost __ billion tons of ________ every year allows us to support a world with _ billion people

• However, this act is changing the climate by ____ degrees F through ______________ greenhouse gases in the air such as _____________

• Ecosystems and its constituents play a big and complicated role through the __________ cycle and currently absorb ___ of our fossil fuel emissions

Three Big Ideas

• Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people

• However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide

• Ecosystems and its constituents play a big and complicated role through the global carbon cycle and currently absorb half of our fossil fuel emissions

Waewaunen!

Part 2: Career Talk

• Where do you want to be 5 years from now? 10? 20?

• What do scientists do? How do you become one? Is it any fun? Does it pay?

• What skills do you need?

Big Questions About Our Forests

• PAST: How has the legacy of land management influence the trajectory of carbon uptake?

• FUTURE: What changes to the land should we expect to see with warmer, wetter winters and drier summers for this area?

• PRESENT: How might we manage the land to mitigate future climate change and how do we adapt our relationship with land to sustain forest production, biodiversity, recreation, culture?

We need smart people

• Many tribes in the area have managed forests in a sustainable way for a long time – what lessons can the rest of society learn here?

• What do the we need to know about climate change but don’t know today?

• How do we best train future scientists, engineers, foresters, teachers to gain and apply wisdom about sustainability in face of global change?

• Global change science research involves:– Analysis of observations of air, water, land, humans

over space and time– Lab and field experiments of these quantities– Theory and math about the physics, chemistry,

biology, geology, and economics of the Earth System

– Computational simulation of various Earth system models to test hypotheses against observations

– Synthesis, communication, and application of findings from all of the above

• All require:– good questions, precise observations, and working

in diverse teams!

Science careers

• Natural resource management (public/private)• Non-profit, non-governmental organizations• Scientific trades and engineering• Environmental consulting, lobbying, law• Recreation, tourism• Science media/writing• Science policy• K-12 education, museums, informal ed.• Industry research / analysis• Government research• Science funding (public and foundation)• Higher education

– Faculty: Teaching, research, service/outreach– Research: Scientist, technical, engineer

• Others?

Degree Routes

• Associate’s

• Bachelor’s

• M.S. – professional/research degree

• Ph.D. – research degree

• Post-doctoral fellowship – scientist in training position

What should I major in?

• Math / Computer Science

• Physics / Chemistry

• Meteorology / Soil Science / Geology / Oceanography

• Ecology / Biology

• Environmental science / Natural resources / Agriculture / Forestry

• Economics

Emerging: NEON

Thanks!