So what happened to the electoral system in 2010?

John CurticeStrathclyde University

The (principal) case for FPP

• Provides for a system of alternating single party majority government

• That means that governments are clearly held accountable

• And that they are made and unmade by voters rather than via back room deals.

How FPP is supposed to deliver

• Discourages people from voting for third parties

• Does not give third parties seats• Gives the winner a clear ‘bonus’…• …irrespective of who that winner is

Rise and Fall of the Two-Party Vote

The Rise of ‘Others’

The LD Vote – a little less even

All Third Party Seats

How FPP delivers a winner’s bonus

• Plenty of seats are competitive between Conservative and Labour.

• So if there is a small ‘swing’ from one to the other, lots of seats change hands.

• So even if the largest party only has a small lead in votes over the second party, it still secures an overall majority.

The Decline in Marginal Seats

Long-Term Variation in ‘Swing’

South Midlands North Scotland Wales

1955-87 +8.9 +5.9 -8.6 -19.1 +0.6

1987-97 -2.6 -2.3 +1.9 +7.4 +2.0

1997-2005

+1.1 +1.1 -0.9 -4.7 +1.5

2005-10 +0.6 +2.1 -0.4 -7.6 +0.7

Potential Sources of Bias

• Unevenly sized constituencies– Differences in electorate size– Differences in turnout– (Differences in third party vote)

• More efficiently distributed vote– Win more seats by small majorities– (Waste more votes in third party seats)

Trends in Overall Bias

The Anti-Tory Bias

Con Lab

Electorate 72,345 68,612

Turnout 68.4 61.1

=> Voters 49,436 41,842

Small Majorities 60 81

Vote in Third Party Seats

28.4 16.6

How The System Now (Doesn’t) Work

Con % Lead (GB)

Con Lab LD Others

-2.7 239 326 59 26

0.0 255 306 61 28

4.1 282 281 59 28

7.3 307 258 57 28

11.2 327 233 62 28

How FPP no longer ‘works’

• No longer stops voters from supporting third parties

• Has become less effective at denying third parties representation

• Has become less effective at giving the winning party a ‘bonus’

• Is no longer even-handed in its treatment of the two largest parties

The Implications of the Constituencies Bill

• Will reduce but not eliminate the anti-Con bias– Boundaries will still be nearly 5 years out of date– Will not affect other sources of bias

• Unlikely significantly to change the range of results that produce a hung parliament

• Reduces accountability of MPs to constituents?