SNC-Lavalin - Innovative Research Group · 2020-01-14 · SNC-Lavalin Public Opinion Research April...
Transcript of SNC-Lavalin - Innovative Research Group · 2020-01-14 · SNC-Lavalin Public Opinion Research April...
SNC-LavalinPublic Opinion Research
April 2019
2
These are the results of the April 2019 Canada This Month survey conducted
between April 4th and April 10th, 2019.
This online survey of 2,527 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s
Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a
leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=1,200 based on
Census data from Statistics Canada.
Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid Panel are recruited from a
wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics
of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly
selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's
composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data
to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.
INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that
only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can
only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to
ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire
region.
Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was
not a random probability based sample, a margin of error can not be calculated.
Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to
most online panels.
Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure
that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according
to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a
probability. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table.
MethodologyUnweighted
(n)Unweighted
(%)Weighted
(n)Weighted
(%)
Males 18-34 273 10.8% 165 13.8%
Males 35-54 377 14.9% 201 16.7%
Males 55+ 640 25.3% 217 18.1%
Females 18-34 318 12.6% 163 13.6%
Females 35-54 411 16.3% 208 17.4%
Females 55+ 508 20.1% 245 20.4%
BC 531 21.0% 163 13.6%
Alberta 506 20.0% 136 11.3%
Prairies 103 4.1% 80 6.7%
Ontario 773 30.6% 459 38.3%
Quebec 511 20.2% 280 23.3%
Atlantic 103 4.1% 82 6.8%
Landscape
4
Decided Federal Vote: Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (32%) remain close with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) trailing
Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]
32%36%
13%
4%
10%5%
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
No
v-0
8
Jan
-09
May
-09
Au
g-0
9
Oct
-09
Dec
-09
Feb
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Jul-
11
Sep
-11
No
v-1
1
Feb
-12
Ap
r-1
2
Jan
-13
Sep
t-1
3
Ap
r-1
4
Jun
e-1
4
Oct
-14
Mar
-15
May
-15
Au
g-1
5
Oct
-15
Dec
-15
Feb
-16
Ap
r-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb
-17
Ap
r-1
7
Jun
e-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party
The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party
May 2011 Federal Election:Conservatives: 40%
NDP: 31%Liberal: 19%
BQ: 6%Green: 4%
October 2015 Federal Election:Liberals: 39%
Conservatives: 32%NDP: 20%
BQ: 5%Green: 3%
Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’.
5
Decided Federal Vote by Region: Liberals are down in every region except Quebec
Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]
32%33%
32%32%
29%31%
29%30%
54%56%
55%59%
40%37%
31%43%
34%34%34%35%
21%21%
20%17%
27%24%
30%19%
36%36%38%39%
30%31%
36%35%
21%20%
26%25%
25%30%
36%35%
41%40%
45%45%
38%38%
33%36%
46%48%
43%59%
13%13%12%
20%
21%20%
19%26%
13%12%
8%12%
20%20%
15%19%
13%13%
12%17%
8%10%
10%25%
11%11%
7%18%
4%3%5%
5%
19%16%
21%19%
10%10%8%
3%
16%15%
12%8%
7%6%5%
3%
5%10%
8%3%
9%9%
6%3%
10%9%
9%2%
11%11%
14%4%
5%5%5%
1%
4%4%4%
1%
5%5%6%
2%
10%
11%1%
4%4%4%
1%
5%6%6%
1%
4%5%6%
1%
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19
2015 Election
The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party
The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party
BC
Alberta
Prairies
Ontario
Quebec
Atlantic
Note: The “2015 Election” results are obtained from Elections Canada.
National
6
Federal Party ID: Liberal ID (29%) remains ahead of Conservative ID (22%); one-in-four (26%) are unaligned
Q Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...[asked of all respondents]
22%
29%
10%
14%
26%
Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned
SNC-Lavalin
8
Q
Attention: More than 6-in-10 of all partisan groups have been following closely; only 43% of those who are unaligned are following closely
How closely have you been following the news about attempted bribery and fraud by SNC-Lavalin and allegations that the Prime Minister’s Office pressured the Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to negotiate remediation without going to court?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
25%
36%
22%
9%7%
Very closely Somewhat closely Not very closely Not at all Don’t know
Closely: 62%
75%
65%
63%
66%
70%
43%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Closely
9
Q
Knowledge: More than half (57%) of respondents say they understand the details at least somewhat well
There are many complex aspects to this issue, including the history of SNC-Lavalin, the relationship between the Attorney General and the government, and the role of the Attorney General in deciding how to prosecute cases. How well do you understand the aspects to this issue?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
23%
34%
23%
11%9%
Very well and couldexplain the details to
others
Somewhat well butcould not explain the
details
Only heard of the different aspects but
don’t know much about them
Have not heard aboutthe specific aspects of
the issue before
Don’t know
70%
61%
56%
66%
64%
39%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
At least somewhat well
At least somewhat well: 57%
10
Q
Impact on Liberal Party: Impact on the Liberal Party is strongly negative with a majority saying the issue left them feeling less favourable towards the LPC
Has what you have heard about this issue left you feeling more or less favourable towards Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
5%
8%
26%
18%
34%
9%
Much morefavourable
Somewhat morefavourable
Neither more norless favourable
Somewhat lessfavourable
Much lessfavourable
Don’t know
More favourable: 13%
Less favourable: 52%
Net Impact:-39%
Note: Net impact is [Total more favourable]-[Total less favourable]
-73%
-6%
-46%
-33%
-41%
-44%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net impact
11
Q
Wilson-Raybould’s Performance: Nearly half (48%) think Wilson-Raybould did a good job as Minister of Justice, lowest among Liberal partisans
Thinking about Jody Wilson-Raybould performance as Minister of Justice and Attorney General, would you say she did a very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad job?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
21%
28%
15%
10%
27%
Very good job Somewhat good job Somewhat bad job Very bad job Don’t know
Good job: 48%
Bad job: 25%
Note: Net performance is [Total good job]-[Total bad job]
+53%
+2%
+35%
+12%
+31%
+17%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net Performance
Net Performance:
+24%
12
Q
Removal from Caucus: Respondents are split on removing Wilson-Raybould and Philpott from caucus; Liberals and Bloc Quebecois partisans net support it
Do you support or oppose the decision by Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party to remove Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal caucus?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
16% 15%
20%
11%
24%
14%
Strongly support Somewhatsupport
Neither supportnor oppose
Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know
Support: 31%
Oppose: 34%Net Support:
-4%
-45%
+39%
-10%
+16%
-7%
-15%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net support
Note: Net support is [Total support]-[Total oppose]
13
Q
Recording the Conversation: Nearly 4-in-10 respondents support Wilson-Raybould’s decision to record the phone conversation
Do you support or oppose the decision by Jody Wilson-Raybould to record the telephone conversation she had with Michael Wernick, Clerk of the Privy Council?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
22%
17%17%
11%
18%
15%
Strongly support Somewhatsupport
Neither supportnor oppose
Somewhatoppose
Strongly oppose Don’t know
Support: 39%
Oppose: 29%
Net Support:+10%
Note: Net support is [Total support]-[Total oppose]
+45%
-29%
+21%
+5%
+23%
+14%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net support
14
Q
Interference with Prosecutions: More than two thirds of respondents, including 62% of Liberal partisans, are concerned about interference
One of the issues that has come up is the issue of politicians interfering with the independence of prosecutors. How worried are you about this?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
20% 20%
29%
13%
5%
13%
Extremelyconcerned
Very concerned Somewhatconcerned
Not veryconcerned
Not at allconcerned
Don’t know
Concerned: 69%
84%
62%
77%
78%
75%
58%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Concerned
15
Q
Trudeau versus Wilson-Raybould: The plurality of respondents (43%) believe Jody Wilson-Raybould over Justin Trudeau
Jody Wilson-Raybould says that the Prime Minister and senior officials in government inappropriately tried to politicise her decisions as attorney general. The Prime Minister says that he and senior officials were simply ensuring that the attorney general considered critical issues like the potential for job loss.Who do you believe? [asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
28%
43%
29%
74%
19%
49%
49%
54%
37%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Wilson-Raybould
Former Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
16
Q
Beliefs: More than half of respondents agree that the Prime Minister’s actions show that big business gets special access to the political system
32%
29%
25%
23%
24%
11%
13%
26%
27%
20%
20%
17%
23%
20%
19%
19%
21%
22%
19%
21%
21%
7%
7%
12%
10%
11%
13%
12%
3%
5%
9%
10%
16%
16%
20%
12%
13%
14%
15%
13%
16%
14%
The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that big business gets special access to the political system.
If Jody Wilson-Raybould thought officials were acting inappropriately, she should havegone to the Prime Minister with her concerns.
The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that Quebec gets special treatment by the current Federal Government compared to other provinces in Canada.
By shuffling Jody Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice, the Prime Ministertook away an important voice for British Columbia to serve his own narrow interests.
The way Jody Wilson-Raybould was treated by the Prime Minister proves he isn’t really committed to progressive change for women and indigenous Canadians.
When companies like SNC-Lavalin provide bribes in Libya, that is just a part of howbusiness is done in those areas.
It is perfectly appropriate for the Prime minister to take action to try to protect theaverage workers at SNC-Lavalin from the consequences of the actions of others who
are no longer at the company.
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
+47%
+44%
+24%
+23%
+14%
+5%
+1%
Net
Agreement
32%
26%
19%
7%
3%
12%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
17
Q
Favouring Big Business: A majority (58%) agree that the Prime Minister’s actions show big business gets special access
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that big business gets special access to the political system.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
Agree: 58%
Disagree: 11%
Net agreement:
+47%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
+65%
+27%
+61%
+53%
+56%
+45%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
18
Q
Voicing Concerns: 55% of respondents agree that Wilson-Raybould should have gone to the Prime Minister if she thought officials were acting inappropriately
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? If Jody Wilson-Raybould thought officials were acting inappropriately, she should have gone to the Prime Minister with her concerns.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
29%27%
19%
7%5%
13%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 55%
Disagree: 12%
Net agreement:
+44%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
+26%
+67%
+51%
+59%
+42%
+29%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
19
Q
Favouring Quebec: plurality agree Trudeau’s actions show special treatment for Quebec; highest among Conservative partisans
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that Quebec gets special treatment by the current Federal Government compared to other provinces in Canada.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
25%
20% 21%
12%
9%
14%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 45%
Disagree: 21%
Net agreement:
+24%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
+61%
-1%
+31%
-31%
+31%
+24%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
20
Q
Voice for BC: A plurality (43%) agree that shuffling Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice removed an important voice for BC
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? By shuffling Jody Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice, the Prime Minister took away an important voice for British Columbia to serve his own narrow interests.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
23%
20%22%
10% 10%
15%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 43%
Disagree: 20%
Net agreement:
+23%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
+53%
-8%
+34%
+22%
+38%
+24%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
21
Q
Progressive Change: Agreement that the treatment of Wilson-Raybould shows Trudeau is not committed to progressive change is highest among CPC partisans
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The way Jody Wilson-Raybould was treated by the Prime Minister proves he isn’t really committed to progressive change for women and indigenous Canadians.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
24%
17%
19%
11%
16%
13%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 41%
Disagree: 27%
Net agreement:
+14%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
+54%
-26%
+31%
+20%
+25%
+14%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
22
Q
How Business is Done: Slight plurality agree that companies like SNC-Lavalin providing bribes in Libya is just how business is done
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? When companies like SNC-Lavalin provide bribes in Libya, that is just a part of how business is done in those areas.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
11%
23%21%
13%
16% 16%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 34%
Disagree: 29%
Net agreement:
+5%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
-0%
+21%
-8%
+14%
+6%
-7%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
23
Q
Protecting Workers: Respondents were split on whether it is appropriate for the PM to take action to protect the average workers at SNC-Lavalin
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is perfectly appropriate for the Prime Minister to take action to try to protect the average workers at SNC-Lavalin from the consequences of the actions of others who are no longer at the company.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]
13%
20% 21%
12%
20%
14%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 33%
Disagree: 32%
Net agreement:
+1%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]
-34%
+39%
-4%
+20%
-3%
-10%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
Party Attributes
32%31%
38%
28%30%
36%
29%29%30%
25%26%
29%
25%24%
28%
23%23%
26%
23%23%
26%
13%13%
13%
19%21%
24%
18%19%
19%
11%12%
13%
18%18%
20%
8%7%
9%
13%12%
15%
9%9%
11%
13%12%
15%
11%10%
14%
16%16%
18%
2%1%
2%
2%2%
3%
2%2%
3%
2%2%
3%
2%2%
2%
3%2%
3%
6%5%
3%
9%8%
5%
4%4%
3%
6%6%
4%
7%7%
5%
7%6%
5%
4%4%
2%
4%4%
2%
6%6%
4%
5%5%
3%
5%5%
3%
4%4%
2%
1%1%
1%
1%1%
2%
1%1%
1%
1%1%
1%
2%1%
1%
1%1%
2%
18%20%
15%
22%21%
18%
22%21%
18%
22%22%
20%
28%29%
26%
23%22%
19%
7%8%
4%
7%8%
6%
8%9%
5%
7%8%
6%
10%11%
8%
7%8%
5%
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
The Liberal party The Conservative party The New Democratic PartyThe Bloc Quebecois The Green Party People’s Party of CanadaAnother party Undecided/don’t know None
Representing Canada on the world stage
Promotion equal rights for women
Dealing with the issue of refugees
Protecting civil liberties
Aboriginal issues
Health
25
Party Attributes: Liberals are steady on attributes since February, down on most since September 2018
Q Now we are going to provide you with a list of issues. For each of these issues, please tell me which party you think would do a much better job or a somewhat better job of dealing with that issue, or if you think none of the parties would do a good job on that issue. How about …. ? [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
25%23%
27%
22%21%
23%
20%19%
21%
18%19%
22%
17%16%
18%
15%15%
13%12%
15%
24%24%
27%
25%27%
31%
26%29%
32%
19%20%
21%
11%12%
14%
19%19%
30%29%
33%
9%8%
12%
6%5%
6%
7%6%
10%
9%9%
13%
8%7%
12%
11%10%
7%8%
10%
2%2%
2%
2%2%
2%
2%1%
2%
7%6%
9%
2%2%
2%
3%2%
2%2%
2%
5%4%
3%
3%3%
3%
4%3%
3%
6%6%
6%
35%36%
31%
12%10%
3%3%
3%
4%5%
3%
5%5%
3%
4%4%
2%
4%4%
3%
3%3%
2%
4%5%
5%6%
3%
1%1%
1%
1%1%
1%
1%1%
1%
1%1%
1%
2%1%
1%
1%1%
1%1%
1%
22%23%
19%
27%27%
25%
28%27%
23%
23%24%
19%
16%17%
15%
23%24%
24%24%
23%
9%10%
5%
9%10%
7%
9%9%
6%
12%12%
6%
6%7%
5%
13%14%
15%15%
10%
19-Apr
19-Feb18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb18-Sep
19-Apr19-Feb18-Sep
19-Apr19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr19-Feb
18-Sep
19-Apr
19-Feb
18-Sep
The Liberal party The Conservative party The New Democratic Party
The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party People’s Party of Canada
Another party Undecided/don’t know None
Not tracked in September 2018
26
Party Attributes: Liberals (25%) and Conservatives (24%) are tied as best party on “Creating Jobs”
Q Now we are going to provide you with a list of issues. For each of these issues, please tell me which party you think would do a much better job or a somewhat better job of dealing with that issue, or if you think none of the parties would do a good job on that issue. How about …. ? [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Creating Jobs
Protecting Canadians from terrorism
Crime
Responding to unique needs of my province
Environment
Maintaining a high ethical stand
Cutting taxes
Leaders
10%
11%
6%
13%
4%
7%
22%
18%
16%
22%
10%
11%
30%
21%
30%
12%
25%
23%
12%
13%
17%
15%
16%
10%
10%
22%
15%
35%
24%
11%
17%
15%
17%
3%
21%
38%
Elizabeth May
Andrew Scheer
Jagmeet Singh
Justin Trudeau
Maxime Bernier
Yves-Francois Blanchet[Quebec only]
Very favourable Somewhat favourable
Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable
Very unfavourable DK/Do not recognize
28Leader Impressions: More have an unfavourable than favourable opinion of Scheer, Singh, and Trudeau; May is the only leader with a positive impression
+9%
-6%
-10%
-15%
-25%
-3%
Q Net
Favourability
Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
-20%
-6%
+11%
-10%
+12%
-15%
+7% +9%
-23%
-3%
-25%
15-Apr 15-May 15-Jul(W1)
15-Aug(W2)
15-Sep(W3)
15-Sep(W4)
15-Oct(W5)
15-Oct(W6)
15-Oct(Post)
2016(No data)
17-May 17-Oct Mar-18 18-Sep 19-Mar 19-Apr
Conservative leader NDP Leader Liberal Leader
Green Leader Bloc Leader People's Party Leader
Net leader favourables: Leaders all stable since March; decline in Trudeau’s favourability since September persists
Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. Net favourables (% favourable-unfavourable) INCLUDES ‘HAVE NOT HEARD’ for tracking consistency.[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Net
Fav
ou
rab
le →
N
et U
nfa
vou
rab
le
TrudeauHarperMulcairBeaulieuMay
TrudeauHarperMulcairDuceppeMay
Note: BQ leaders asked in Quebec Only.
INNOVATIVE’s 2015 Election Campaign Surveys
TrudeauScheerMulcairOulletMay
: indicates a change in party leader during tracking
TrudeauScheerSinghOulletMay
TrudeauScheerSinghBeaulieuMayBernier
TrudeauScheerSinghBlanchetMayBernier
Q
29
23%
39%
31% 30%
37%
10%
2% 3%7%
12%7%
15-Jul(W1)
15-Aug(W2)
15-Sep(W3)
15-Sep(W4)
15-Oct(W5)
15-Oct(W6)
15-Oct(Post)
2016(No data)
17-May 17-Oct Mar-18 18-Sep 19-Mar 19-Apr
Justin Trudeau of the LiberalsAndrew Scheer / Stephen Harper of the ConservativesJagmeet Singh / Thomas Mulcair of the NDPYves-Francois Blanchet / Mario Beaulieu / Martine Oullet / Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc QuebecoisElizabeth May of the Green PartyMaxime Bernier of the People's Party
Best Prime Minister - Decided: Trudeau (39%) remains the top choice for best Prime Minister, with Scheer (30%) trailing by 9 points
Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? [Bloc Quebecois asked only in Quebec] [Results show decided only, n=877]
Note: ‘None’, ‘Don’t know’, 'Refused' not included in calculations. Duceppe asked in QC only.
Q
INNOVATIVE’s 2015 Election Campaign Surveys
: indicates a change in party leader during tracking
TrudeauHarperMulcairDuceppeMay
TrudeauScheerMulcairOulletMay
TrudeauScheerSinghOulletMay
TrudeauScheerSinghBeaulieuMayBernier
TrudeauScheerSinghBlanchetMayBernier
30
Now we would like to read you a list of different words or phrases that describe the some political leaders. For each word or phrase, please indicate who it BEST describes… [ALL CANADA][asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Leader Qualities: Trudeau and Scheer are the top choices for every quality; Trudeau leads on standing up for the middle class
31
23%
23%
21%
21%
21%
17%
19%
20%
19%
19%
21%
27%
13%
7%
11%
11%
8%
7%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
2%
8%
8%
13%
11%
11%
7%
6%
6%
7%
5%
6%
11%
19%
21%
17%
17%
20%
21%
10%
13%
10%
13%
11%
9%
Will stand up for the middle class
Strong leadership
Represents positive change
Cares about people like me
Competent
Too negative
Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh
Yves-Francois Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier
Undecided None
Q
23%24%
33%21%
21%22%
31%20%
23%22%
26%21%
21%21%
31%
21%20%
26%25%
17%13%
9%8%
20%20%
19%29%
21%23%
21%27%
19%21%
19%16%
19%20%
14%
19%18%
17%18%
27%26%
21%39%
7%6%
5%20%
8%7%
7%21%
13%12%
14%30%
11%9%
19%
11%10%
11%20%
7%7%
7%17%
2%2%
1%3%
2%2%
2%3%
3%2%
2%3%
2%2%
2%
3%3%
3%4%
2%2%
3%3%
8%7%
6%3%
11%9%
7%5%
8%8%
6%4%
13%12%
7%
11%11%
8%7%
7%8%
8%4%
6%6%
4%
6%5%
4%
6%6%
5%
7%7%
5%6%
5%
11%12%
17%
21%22%
22%17%
20%22%
21%17%
19%20%
21%17%
17%18%
16%
17%18%
20%15%
21%22%
28%17%
13%13%
10%7%
11%10%
7%7%
10%10%
7%9%
10%11%
11%
13%13%
10%11%
9%10%
7%11%
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Oct '15 (Pre-Election)
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Oct '15 (Pre-Election)
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Jul '15 (Pre-Election)*
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Oct '15 (Pre-Election)
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Oct '15 (Pre-Election)
Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18
Oct '15 (Pre-Election)
Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois Blanchet
Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Undecided None
Now we would like to read you a list of different words or phrases that describe the some political leaders. For each word or phrase, please indicate who it BEST describes… [ALL CANADA][asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Leader Qualities: Perceptions that Trudeau is too negative are up 8 points since September 2018 from 9% to 17%
32
Q
Not tracked in September 2018
Strong leadership
Competent
Will stand up for the middle class
Represents positive change
Cares about people like me
Too negative
* The study of July 2015 was conducted before the writ was dropped in August 2015.
Political Attitudes
+51%
+38%
+33%
+4%
-3%
29%
37%
39%
22%
20%
34%
19%
17%
18%
18%
15%
15%
16%
17%
14%
8%
6%
9%
9%
10%
5%
13%
13%
26%
31%
9%
10%
7%
9%
8%
This election is really a race between the Conservativesand the Liberals
We need a federal government that will stand up to thenegative influence of provincial politicians like Doug Ford
and Jason Kenny.
It is time for a change in government here in Canada.
The most important thing in this election is to keep theConservatives out of government
The Liberals may have their problems but they are still thebest party to form government
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree
Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know
34
Net Agreement
Attitudes: Majority (55%) of respondents think it’s time for a change of federal government
QDo you agree or disagree with the following statements?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in government here in Canada. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
35
39%
17% 16%
9%13%
7%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 55%
Disagree: 22%
Net Agreement:+33%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]
Agree or disagree: 55% think it’s time for a change of government with above-average net agreement from Unaligned respondents
Q
+86%
-27%
+54%
+64%
+45%
+40%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
36
20%18%
14%
10%
31%
8%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 38%
Disagree: 40%
Net Agreement:-3%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]
Agree or disagree: Plurality of respondents (and 36% of Unaligned respondents) disagree that Liberals are best party to form government
Q
-70%
+72%
-13%
-22%
-18%
-16%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
37
LPC Best Party for GovernmentTi
me
fo
r C
han
ge
Hostile Soft Anti-LPC
Time for Change LPC
Soft Anti-LPC
Soft Anti-LPC
Uncertain Soft LPC
Soft LPC Core LPC
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neutral/ Don’t know
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Neutral/ Don’t know
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Based on the two agree/disagree statements “It is time for a change in government here in Canada” and “The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government”, we create a segmentation for analysis.
Time for Change Segmentation: Creating the Segments
38
Core LPC, 19%
Soft LPC, 9%
Time for change LPC, 11%
Uncertain, 13%
Soft anti-LPC, 21%
Hostile, 27%
Do not think it is time for a change and agree the Liberals are best to form government
Think it is time for a change but believe the Liberals are
still best to form government
Think it is time for a change and do not believe the Liberals are
best to form government
Time for Change Segmentation: Respondents were grouped together based on their views of the LPC
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in government here in Canada.Q Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government.
[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? This election is really a race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
39
29%
34%
15%
8%5%
9%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 63%
Disagree: 12%
Net Agreement:+51%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]
Agree or disagree: 2-in-3 (63%) agree that the election is between the two main parties, CPC- and Liberal-identifiers most likely to agree
Q
+74%
+63%
+24%
+41%
+30%
+39%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The most important thing in this election is to keep the Conservatives out of government. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
40
22%
18% 17%
9%
26%
9%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 39%Disagree: 35%
Net Agreement:+4%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]
Agree or disagree: Respondents divided on whether or not the most important thing in this election is to keep CPC out
Q
-70%
+53%
+48%
+20%
+15%
-9%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? We need a federal government that will stand up to the negative influence of provincial politicians like Doug Ford and Jason Kenney. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]
41
37%
19%
15%
6%
13%10%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree
Somewhatdisagree
Strongly disagree Don’t know
Agree: 57%
Disagree: 18%
Net Agreement:+38%
Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]
Agree or disagree: Nearly 6-in-10 (57%) feel the government needs to stand up to negative influence of politicians like Ford and Kenney
Q
-19%
+72%
+80%
+36%
+38%
+34%
Conservative
Liberal
NDP
Bloc Quebecois
Green/Other
Unaligned
Party ID Segmentation
Net agreement
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