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Transcript of SNC-Lavalin - Innovative Research Group · PDF file 2020-01-14 · SNC-Lavalin...

  • SNC-Lavalin Public Opinion Research

    April 2019

  • 2

    These are the results of the April 2019 Canada This Month survey conducted

    between April 4th and April 10th, 2019.

    This online survey of 2,527 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s

    Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a

    leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=1,200 based on

    Census data from Statistics Canada.

    Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid Panel are recruited from a

    wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics

    of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly

    selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's

    composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data

    to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

    INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that

    only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can

    only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to

    ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire

    region.

    Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was

    not a random probability based sample, a margin of error can not be calculated.

    Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to

    most online panels.

    Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure

    that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according

    to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a

    probability. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table.

    Methodology Unweighted

    (n) Unweighted

    (%) Weighted

    (n) Weighted

    (%)

    Males 18-34 273 10.8% 165 13.8%

    Males 35-54 377 14.9% 201 16.7%

    Males 55+ 640 25.3% 217 18.1%

    Females 18-34 318 12.6% 163 13.6%

    Females 35-54 411 16.3% 208 17.4%

    Females 55+ 508 20.1% 245 20.4%

    BC 531 21.0% 163 13.6%

    Alberta 506 20.0% 136 11.3%

    Prairies 103 4.1% 80 6.7%

    Ontario 773 30.6% 459 38.3%

    Quebec 511 20.2% 280 23.3%

    Atlantic 103 4.1% 82 6.8%

  • Landscape

  • 4

    Decided Federal Vote: Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (32%) remain close with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) trailing

    Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]

    32% 36%

    13%

    4%

    10% 5%

    Ja n

    -0 8

    M ar

    -0 8

    M ay

    -0 8

    Ju l-

    0 8

    Se p

    -0 8

    N o

    v- 0

    8

    Ja n

    -0 9

    M ay

    -0 9

    A u

    g- 0

    9

    O ct

    -0 9

    D ec

    -0 9

    Fe b

    -1 0

    A p

    r- 1

    0

    Se p

    -1 0

    Ja n

    -1 1

    M ay

    -1 1

    Ju l-

    1 1

    Se p

    -1 1

    N o

    v- 1

    1

    Fe b

    -1 2

    A p

    r- 1

    2

    Ja n

    -1 3

    Se p

    t- 1

    3

    A p

    r- 1

    4

    Ju n

    e- 1

    4

    O ct

    -1 4

    M ar

    -1 5

    M ay

    -1 5

    A u

    g- 1

    5

    O ct

    -1 5

    D ec

    -1 5

    Fe b

    -1 6

    A p

    r- 1

    6

    A u

    g- 1

    6

    O ct

    -1 6

    D ec

    -1 6

    Fe b

    -1 7

    A p

    r- 1

    7

    Ju n

    e- 1

    7

    O ct

    -1 7

    Ja n

    -1 8

    M ar

    -1 8

    M ay

    -1 8

    Ju l-

    1 8

    Se p

    -1 8

    N o

    v- 1

    8

    Ja n

    -1 9

    M ar

    -1 9

    The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party

    The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

    May 2011 Federal Election: Conservatives: 40%

    NDP: 31% Liberal: 19%

    BQ: 6% Green: 4%

    October 2015 Federal Election: Liberals: 39%

    Conservatives: 32% NDP: 20%

    BQ: 5% Green: 3%

    Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’.

  • 5

    Decided Federal Vote by Region: Liberals are down in every region except Quebec

    Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]

    32% 33%

    32% 32%

    29% 31%

    29% 30%

    54% 56%

    55% 59%

    40% 37%

    31% 43%

    34% 34% 34% 35%

    21% 21%

    20% 17%

    27% 24%

    30% 19%

    36% 36% 38% 39%

    30% 31%

    36% 35%

    21% 20%

    26% 25%

    25% 30%

    36% 35%

    41% 40%

    45% 45%

    38% 38%

    33% 36%

    46% 48%

    43% 59%

    13% 13% 12%

    20%

    21% 20%

    19% 26%

    13% 12%

    8% 12%

    20% 20%

    15% 19%

    13% 13%

    12% 17%

    8% 10%

    10% 25%

    11% 11%

    7% 18%

    4% 3% 5%

    5%

    19% 16%

    21% 19%

    10% 10% 8%

    3%

    16% 15%

    12% 8%

    7% 6% 5%

    3%

    5% 10%

    8% 3%

    9% 9%

    6% 3%

    10% 9%

    9% 2%

    11% 11%

    14% 4%

    5% 5% 5%

    1%

    4% 4% 4%

    1%

    5% 5% 6%

    2%

    10%

    11% 1%

    4% 4% 4%

    1%

    5% 6% 6%

    1%

    4% 5% 6%

    1%

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    Apr-19 Mar-19 Jan-19

    2015 Election

    The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party

    The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

    BC

    Alberta

    Prairies

    Ontario

    Quebec

    Atlantic

    Note: The “2015 Election” results are obtained from Elections Canada.

    National

  • 6

    Federal Party ID: Liberal ID (29%) remains ahead of Conservative ID (22%); one- in-four (26%) are unaligned

    Q Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a... [asked of all respondents]

    22%

    29%

    10%

    14%

    26%

    Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned

  • SNC-Lavalin

  • 8

    Q

    Attention: More than 6-in-10 of all partisan groups have been following closely; only 43% of those who are unaligned are following closely

    How closely have you been following the news about attempted bribery and fraud by SNC- Lavalin and allegations that the Prime Minister’s Office pressured the Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to negotiate remediation without going to court? [asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

    25%

    36%

    22%

    9% 7%

    Very closely Somewhat closely Not very closely Not at all Don’t know

    Closely: 62%

    75%

    65%

    63%

    66%

    70%

    43%

    Conservative

    Liberal

    NDP

    Bloc Quebecois

    Green/Other

    Unaligned

    Party ID Segmentation

    Closely

  • 9

    Q

    Knowledge: More than half (57%) of respondents say they understand the details at least somewhat well

    There are many complex aspects to this issue, including the history of SNC-Lavalin, the relationship between the Attorney General and the government, and the role of the Attorney General in deciding how to prosecute cases. How well do you understand the aspects to this issue? [asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

    23%

    34%

    23%

    11% 9%

    Very well and could explain the details to

    others

    Somewhat well but could not explain the

    details

    Only heard of the different aspects but

    don’t know much about them

    Have not heard about the specific aspects of

    the issue before

    Don’t know

    70%

    61%

    56%

    66%

    64%

    39%

    Conservative

    Liberal

    NDP

    Bloc Quebecois

    Green/Other

    Unaligned

    Party ID Segmentation

    At least somewhat well

    At least somewhat well: 57%

  • 10

    Q

    Impact on Liberal Party: Impact on the Liberal Party is strongly negative with a majority saying the issue left them feeling less favourable towards the LPC

    Has what you have heard about this issue left you feeling more or less favourable towards Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada? [asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

    5%

    8%

    26%

    18%

    34%

    9%

    Much more favourable

    Somewhat more favourable

    Neither more nor less favourable