SNC-Lavalin - Innovative Research Group · 2020-01-14 · SNC-Lavalin Public Opinion Research April...

SNC-LavalinPublic Opinion Research

April 2019

2

These are the results of the April 2019 Canada This Month survey conducted

between April 4th and April 10th, 2019.

This online survey of 2,527 adult Canadians was conducted using INNOVATIVE’s

Canada 20/20 national research panel with additional respondents from Lucid, a

leading provider of online sample. The results are weighted to n=1,200 based on

Census data from Statistics Canada.

Respondents from the Canada 20/20 Panel and the Lucid Panel are recruited from a

wide variety of sources to reflect the age, gender, region and language characteristics

of the country as a whole. Each survey is administered to a series of randomly

selected samples from the panel and weighted to ensure that the overall sample's

composition reflects that of the actual Canadian population according to Census data

to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample.

INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that

only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can

only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to

ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire

region.

Confidence: This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was

not a random probability based sample, a margin of error can not be calculated.

Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to

most online panels.

Weighting: Results for Canada are weighted by age, gender, and region to ensure

that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population according

to Census data; in order to provide results that are intended to approximate a

probability. Weighted and unweighted frequencies are reported in the table.

MethodologyUnweighted

(n)Unweighted

(%)Weighted

(n)Weighted

(%)

Males 18-34 273 10.8% 165 13.8%

Males 35-54 377 14.9% 201 16.7%

Males 55+ 640 25.3% 217 18.1%

Females 18-34 318 12.6% 163 13.6%

Females 35-54 411 16.3% 208 17.4%

Females 55+ 508 20.1% 245 20.4%

BC 531 21.0% 163 13.6%

Alberta 506 20.0% 136 11.3%

Prairies 103 4.1% 80 6.7%

Ontario 773 30.6% 459 38.3%

Quebec 511 20.2% 280 23.3%

Atlantic 103 4.1% 82 6.8%

Landscape

4

Decided Federal Vote: Liberals (36%) and Conservatives (32%) remain close with the NDP (13%) and Greens (10%) trailing

Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]

32%36%

13%

4%

10%5%

Jan

-08

Mar

-08

May

-08

Jul-

08

Sep

-08

No

v-0

8

Jan

-09

May

-09

Au

g-0

9

Oct

-09

Dec

-09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-1

0

Sep

-10

Jan

-11

May

-11

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Feb

-12

Ap

r-1

2

Jan

-13

Sep

t-1

3

Ap

r-1

4

Jun

e-1

4

Oct

-14

Mar

-15

May

-15

Au

g-1

5

Oct

-15

Dec

-15

Feb

-16

Ap

r-1

6

Au

g-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec

-16

Feb

-17

Ap

r-1

7

Jun

e-1

7

Oct

-17

Jan

-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Jan

-19

Mar

-19

The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party

The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

May 2011 Federal Election:Conservatives: 40%

NDP: 31%Liberal: 19%

BQ: 6%Green: 4%

October 2015 Federal Election:Liberals: 39%

Conservatives: 32%NDP: 20%

BQ: 5%Green: 3%

Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’.

5

Decided Federal Vote by Region: Liberals are down in every region except Quebec

Q If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly?[DECIDED VOTE] [asked of all respondents]

32%33%

32%32%

29%31%

29%30%

54%56%

55%59%

40%37%

31%43%

34%34%34%35%

21%21%

20%17%

27%24%

30%19%

36%36%38%39%

30%31%

36%35%

21%20%

26%25%

25%30%

36%35%

41%40%

45%45%

38%38%

33%36%

46%48%

43%59%

13%13%12%

20%

21%20%

19%26%

13%12%

8%12%

20%20%

15%19%

13%13%

12%17%

8%10%

10%25%

11%11%

7%18%

4%3%5%

5%

19%16%

21%19%

10%10%8%

3%

16%15%

12%8%

7%6%5%

3%

5%10%

8%3%

9%9%

6%3%

10%9%

9%2%

11%11%

14%4%

5%5%5%

1%

4%4%4%

1%

5%5%6%

2%

10%

11%1%

4%4%4%

1%

5%6%6%

1%

4%5%6%

1%

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

Apr-19Mar-19Jan-19

2015 Election

The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The New Democratic Party

The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

BC

Alberta

Prairies

Ontario

Quebec

Atlantic

Note: The “2015 Election” results are obtained from Elections Canada.

National

6

Federal Party ID: Liberal ID (29%) remains ahead of Conservative ID (22%); one-in-four (26%) are unaligned

Q Thinking about politics in Canada, generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a...[asked of all respondents]

22%

29%

10%

14%

26%

Conservative Liberal NDP Other Unaligned

SNC-Lavalin

8

Q

Attention: More than 6-in-10 of all partisan groups have been following closely; only 43% of those who are unaligned are following closely

How closely have you been following the news about attempted bribery and fraud by SNC-Lavalin and allegations that the Prime Minister’s Office pressured the Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to negotiate remediation without going to court?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

25%

36%

22%

9%7%

Very closely Somewhat closely Not very closely Not at all Don’t know

Closely: 62%

75%

65%

63%

66%

70%

43%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned

Party ID Segmentation

Closely

9

Q

Knowledge: More than half (57%) of respondents say they understand the details at least somewhat well

There are many complex aspects to this issue, including the history of SNC-Lavalin, the relationship between the Attorney General and the government, and the role of the Attorney General in deciding how to prosecute cases. How well do you understand the aspects to this issue?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

23%

34%

23%

11%9%

Very well and couldexplain the details to

others

Somewhat well butcould not explain the

details

Only heard of the different aspects but

don’t know much about them

Have not heard aboutthe specific aspects of

the issue before

Don’t know

70%

61%

56%

66%

64%

39%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


At least somewhat well

At least somewhat well: 57%

10

Q

Impact on Liberal Party: Impact on the Liberal Party is strongly negative with a majority saying the issue left them feeling less favourable towards the LPC

Has what you have heard about this issue left you feeling more or less favourable towards Justin Trudeau and the Liberal Party of Canada?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

5%

8%

26%

18%

34%

9%

Much morefavourable

Somewhat morefavourable

Neither more norless favourable

Somewhat lessfavourable

Much lessfavourable

Don’t know

More favourable: 13%

Less favourable: 52%

Net Impact:-39%

Note: Net impact is [Total more favourable]-[Total less favourable]

-73%

-6%

-46%

-33%

-41%

-44%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net impact

11

Q

Wilson-Raybould’s Performance: Nearly half (48%) think Wilson-Raybould did a good job as Minister of Justice, lowest among Liberal partisans

Thinking about Jody Wilson-Raybould performance as Minister of Justice and Attorney General, would you say she did a very good, somewhat good, somewhat bad, or very bad job?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

21%

28%

15%

10%

27%

Very good job Somewhat good job Somewhat bad job Very bad job Don’t know

Good job: 48%

Bad job: 25%

Note: Net performance is [Total good job]-[Total bad job]

+53%

+2%

+35%

+12%

+31%

+17%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net Performance

Net Performance:

+24%

12

Q

Removal from Caucus: Respondents are split on removing Wilson-Raybould and Philpott from caucus; Liberals and Bloc Quebecois partisans net support it

Do you support or oppose the decision by Prime Minister Trudeau and the Liberal Party to remove Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott from the Liberal caucus?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

16% 15%

20%

11%

24%

14%

Strongly support Somewhatsupport

Neither supportnor oppose

Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know

Support: 31%

Oppose: 34%Net Support:

-4%

-45%

+39%

-10%

+16%

-7%

-15%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net support

Note: Net support is [Total support]-[Total oppose]

13

Q

Recording the Conversation: Nearly 4-in-10 respondents support Wilson-Raybould’s decision to record the phone conversation

Do you support or oppose the decision by Jody Wilson-Raybould to record the telephone conversation she had with Michael Wernick, Clerk of the Privy Council?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

22%

17%17%

11%

18%

15%

Strongly support Somewhatsupport

Neither supportnor oppose

Somewhatoppose

Strongly oppose Don’t know

Support: 39%

Oppose: 29%

Net Support:+10%

Note: Net support is [Total support]-[Total oppose]

+45%

-29%

+21%

+5%

+23%

+14%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net support

14

Q

Interference with Prosecutions: More than two thirds of respondents, including 62% of Liberal partisans, are concerned about interference

One of the issues that has come up is the issue of politicians interfering with the independence of prosecutors. How worried are you about this?[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

20% 20%

29%

13%

5%

13%

Extremelyconcerned

Very concerned Somewhatconcerned

Not veryconcerned

Not at allconcerned

Don’t know

Concerned: 69%

84%

62%

77%

78%

75%

58%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Concerned

15

Q

Trudeau versus Wilson-Raybould: The plurality of respondents (43%) believe Jody Wilson-Raybould over Justin Trudeau

Jody Wilson-Raybould says that the Prime Minister and senior officials in government inappropriately tried to politicise her decisions as attorney general. The Prime Minister says that he and senior officials were simply ensuring that the attorney general considered critical issues like the potential for job loss.Who do you believe? [asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

28%

43%

29%

74%

19%

49%

49%

54%

37%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Wilson-Raybould

Former Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

16

Q

Beliefs: More than half of respondents agree that the Prime Minister’s actions show that big business gets special access to the political system

32%

29%

25%

23%

24%

11%

13%

26%

27%

20%

20%

17%

23%

20%

19%

19%

21%

22%

19%

21%

21%

7%

7%

12%

10%

11%

13%

12%

3%

5%

9%

10%

16%

16%

20%

12%

13%

14%

15%

13%

16%

14%

The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that big business gets special access to the political system.

If Jody Wilson-Raybould thought officials were acting inappropriately, she should havegone to the Prime Minister with her concerns.

The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that Quebec gets special treatment by the current Federal Government compared to other provinces in Canada.

By shuffling Jody Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice, the Prime Ministertook away an important voice for British Columbia to serve his own narrow interests.

The way Jody Wilson-Raybould was treated by the Prime Minister proves he isn’t really committed to progressive change for women and indigenous Canadians.

When companies like SNC-Lavalin provide bribes in Libya, that is just a part of howbusiness is done in those areas.

It is perfectly appropriate for the Prime minister to take action to try to protect theaverage workers at SNC-Lavalin from the consequences of the actions of others who

are no longer at the company.

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

+47%

+44%

+24%

+23%

+14%

+5%

+1%

Net

Agreement

32%

26%

19%

7%

3%

12%

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nordisagree

Somewhatdisagree

Strongly disagree Don’t know

17

Q

Favouring Big Business: A majority (58%) agree that the Prime Minister’s actions show big business gets special access

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that big business gets special access to the political system.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

Agree: 58%

Disagree: 11%

Net agreement:

+47%

Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total agree]

+65%

+27%

+61%

+53%

+56%

+45%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

18

Q

Voicing Concerns: 55% of respondents agree that Wilson-Raybould should have gone to the Prime Minister if she thought officials were acting inappropriately

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? If Jody Wilson-Raybould thought officials were acting inappropriately, she should have gone to the Prime Minister with her concerns.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

29%27%

19%

7%5%

13%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 55%

Disagree: 12%

Net agreement:

+44%


+26%

+67%

+51%

+59%

+42%

+29%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

19

Q

Favouring Quebec: plurality agree Trudeau’s actions show special treatment for Quebec; highest among Conservative partisans

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Prime Minister’s actions on this issue prove that Quebec gets special treatment by the current Federal Government compared to other provinces in Canada.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

25%

20% 21%

12%

9%

14%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 45%

Disagree: 21%

Net agreement:

+24%


+61%

-1%

+31%

-31%

+31%

+24%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

20

Q

Voice for BC: A plurality (43%) agree that shuffling Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice removed an important voice for BC

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? By shuffling Jody Wilson-Raybould out of the Ministry of Justice, the Prime Minister took away an important voice for British Columbia to serve his own narrow interests.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

23%

20%22%

10% 10%

15%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 43%

Disagree: 20%

Net agreement:

+23%


+53%

-8%

+34%

+22%

+38%

+24%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

21

Q

Progressive Change: Agreement that the treatment of Wilson-Raybould shows Trudeau is not committed to progressive change is highest among CPC partisans

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The way Jody Wilson-Raybould was treated by the Prime Minister proves he isn’t really committed to progressive change for women and indigenous Canadians.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

24%

17%

19%

11%

16%

13%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 41%

Disagree: 27%

Net agreement:

+14%


+54%

-26%

+31%

+20%

+25%

+14%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

22

Q

How Business is Done: Slight plurality agree that companies like SNC-Lavalin providing bribes in Libya is just how business is done

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? When companies like SNC-Lavalin provide bribes in Libya, that is just a part of how business is done in those areas.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

11%

23%21%

13%

16% 16%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 34%

Disagree: 29%

Net agreement:

+5%


-0%

+21%

-8%

+14%

+6%

-7%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

23

Q

Protecting Workers: Respondents were split on whether it is appropriate for the PM to take action to protect the average workers at SNC-Lavalin

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is perfectly appropriate for the Prime Minister to take action to try to protect the average workers at SNC-Lavalin from the consequences of the actions of others who are no longer at the company.[asked of all respondents, n=1,200]

13%

20% 21%

12%

20%

14%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 33%

Disagree: 32%

Net agreement:

+1%


-34%

+39%

-4%

+20%

-3%

-10%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

Party Attributes

32%31%

38%

28%30%

36%

29%29%30%

25%26%

29%

25%24%

28%

23%23%

26%

23%23%

26%

13%13%

13%

19%21%

24%

18%19%

19%

11%12%

13%

18%18%

20%

8%7%

9%

13%12%

15%

9%9%

11%

13%12%

15%

11%10%

14%

16%16%

18%

2%1%

2%

2%2%

3%

2%2%

3%

2%2%

3%

2%2%

2%

3%2%

3%

6%5%

3%

9%8%

5%

4%4%

3%

6%6%

4%

7%7%

5%

7%6%

5%

4%4%

2%

4%4%

2%

6%6%

4%

5%5%

3%

5%5%

3%

4%4%

2%

1%1%

1%

1%1%

2%

1%1%

1%

1%1%

1%

2%1%

1%

1%1%

2%

18%20%

15%

22%21%

18%

22%21%

18%

22%22%

20%

28%29%

26%

23%22%

19%

7%8%

4%

7%8%

6%

8%9%

5%

7%8%

6%

10%11%

8%

7%8%

5%

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

The Liberal party The Conservative party The New Democratic PartyThe Bloc Quebecois The Green Party People’s Party of CanadaAnother party Undecided/don’t know None

Representing Canada on the world stage

Promotion equal rights for women

Dealing with the issue of refugees

Protecting civil liberties

Aboriginal issues

Health

25

Party Attributes: Liberals are steady on attributes since February, down on most since September 2018

Q Now we are going to provide you with a list of issues. For each of these issues, please tell me which party you think would do a much better job or a somewhat better job of dealing with that issue, or if you think none of the parties would do a good job on that issue. How about …. ? [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

25%23%

27%

22%21%

23%

20%19%

21%

18%19%

22%

17%16%

18%

15%15%

13%12%

15%

24%24%

27%

25%27%

31%

26%29%

32%

19%20%

21%

11%12%

14%

19%19%

30%29%

33%

9%8%

12%

6%5%

6%

7%6%

10%

9%9%

13%

8%7%

12%

11%10%

7%8%

10%

2%2%

2%

2%2%

2%

2%1%

2%

7%6%

9%

2%2%

2%

3%2%

2%2%

2%

5%4%

3%

3%3%

3%

4%3%

3%

6%6%

6%

35%36%

31%

12%10%

3%3%

3%

4%5%

3%

5%5%

3%

4%4%

2%

4%4%

3%

3%3%

2%

4%5%

5%6%

3%

1%1%

1%

1%1%

1%

1%1%

1%

1%1%

1%

2%1%

1%

1%1%

1%1%

1%

22%23%

19%

27%27%

25%

28%27%

23%

23%24%

19%

16%17%

15%

23%24%

24%24%

23%

9%10%

5%

9%10%

7%

9%9%

6%

12%12%

6%

6%7%

5%

13%14%

15%15%

10%

19-Apr

19-Feb18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb18-Sep

19-Apr19-Feb18-Sep

19-Apr19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr19-Feb

18-Sep

19-Apr

19-Feb

18-Sep

The Liberal party The Conservative party The New Democratic Party

The Bloc Quebecois The Green Party People’s Party of Canada

Another party Undecided/don’t know None

Not tracked in September 2018

26

Party Attributes: Liberals (25%) and Conservatives (24%) are tied as best party on “Creating Jobs”

Q Now we are going to provide you with a list of issues. For each of these issues, please tell me which party you think would do a much better job or a somewhat better job of dealing with that issue, or if you think none of the parties would do a good job on that issue. How about …. ? [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Creating Jobs

Protecting Canadians from terrorism

Crime

Responding to unique needs of my province

Environment

Maintaining a high ethical stand

Cutting taxes

Leaders

10%

11%

6%

13%

4%

7%

22%

18%

16%

22%

10%

11%

30%

21%

30%

12%

25%

23%

12%

13%

17%

15%

16%

10%

10%

22%

15%

35%

24%

11%

17%

15%

17%

3%

21%

38%

Elizabeth May

Andrew Scheer

Jagmeet Singh

Justin Trudeau

Maxime Bernier

Yves-Francois Blanchet[Quebec only]

Very favourable Somewhat favourable

Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable

Very unfavourable DK/Do not recognize

28Leader Impressions: More have an unfavourable than favourable opinion of Scheer, Singh, and Trudeau; May is the only leader with a positive impression

+9%

-6%

-10%

-15%

-25%

-3%

Q Net

Favourability

Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

-20%

-6%

+11%

-10%

+12%

-15%

+7% +9%

-23%

-3%

-25%

15-Apr 15-May 15-Jul(W1)

15-Aug(W2)

15-Sep(W3)

15-Sep(W4)

15-Oct(W5)

15-Oct(W6)

15-Oct(Post)

2016(No data)

17-May 17-Oct Mar-18 18-Sep 19-Mar 19-Apr

Conservative leader NDP Leader Liberal Leader

Green Leader Bloc Leader People's Party Leader

Net leader favourables: Leaders all stable since March; decline in Trudeau’s favourability since September persists

Now we are going to provide you with several names of public figures. Please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a favourable or unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate that. Net favourables (% favourable-unfavourable) INCLUDES ‘HAVE NOT HEARD’ for tracking consistency.[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Net

Fav

ou

rab

le →

N

et U

nfa

vou

rab

le

TrudeauHarperMulcairBeaulieuMay

TrudeauHarperMulcairDuceppeMay

Note: BQ leaders asked in Quebec Only.

INNOVATIVE’s 2015 Election Campaign Surveys

TrudeauScheerMulcairOulletMay

: indicates a change in party leader during tracking

TrudeauScheerSinghOulletMay

TrudeauScheerSinghBeaulieuMayBernier

TrudeauScheerSinghBlanchetMayBernier

Q

29

23%

39%

31% 30%

37%

10%

2% 3%7%

12%7%

15-Jul(W1)

15-Aug(W2)

15-Sep(W3)

15-Sep(W4)

15-Oct(W5)

15-Oct(W6)

15-Oct(Post)

2016(No data)

17-May 17-Oct Mar-18 18-Sep 19-Mar 19-Apr

Justin Trudeau of the LiberalsAndrew Scheer / Stephen Harper of the ConservativesJagmeet Singh / Thomas Mulcair of the NDPYves-Francois Blanchet / Mario Beaulieu / Martine Oullet / Gilles Duceppe of the Bloc QuebecoisElizabeth May of the Green PartyMaxime Bernier of the People's Party

Best Prime Minister - Decided: Trudeau (39%) remains the top choice for best Prime Minister, with Scheer (30%) trailing by 9 points

Which of the following party leaders would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? [Bloc Quebecois asked only in Quebec] [Results show decided only, n=877]

Note: ‘None’, ‘Don’t know’, 'Refused' not included in calculations. Duceppe asked in QC only.

Q

INNOVATIVE’s 2015 Election Campaign Surveys

: indicates a change in party leader during tracking

TrudeauHarperMulcairDuceppeMay

TrudeauScheerMulcairOulletMay

TrudeauScheerSinghOulletMay

TrudeauScheerSinghBeaulieuMayBernier

TrudeauScheerSinghBlanchetMayBernier

30

Now we would like to read you a list of different words or phrases that describe the some political leaders. For each word or phrase, please indicate who it BEST describes… [ALL CANADA][asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Leader Qualities: Trudeau and Scheer are the top choices for every quality; Trudeau leads on standing up for the middle class

31

23%

23%

21%

21%

21%

17%

19%

20%

19%

19%

21%

27%

13%

7%

11%

11%

8%

7%

3%

2%

2%

3%

2%

2%

8%

8%

13%

11%

11%

7%

6%

6%

7%

5%

6%

11%

19%

21%

17%

17%

20%

21%

10%

13%

10%

13%

11%

9%

Will stand up for the middle class

Strong leadership

Represents positive change

Cares about people like me

Competent

Too negative

Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh

Yves-Francois Blanchet Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier

Undecided None

Q

23%24%

33%21%

21%22%

31%20%

23%22%

26%21%

21%21%

31%

21%20%

26%25%

17%13%

9%8%

20%20%

19%29%

21%23%

21%27%

19%21%

19%16%

19%20%

14%

19%18%

17%18%

27%26%

21%39%

7%6%

5%20%

8%7%

7%21%

13%12%

14%30%

11%9%

19%

11%10%

11%20%

7%7%

7%17%

2%2%

1%3%

2%2%

2%3%

3%2%

2%3%

2%2%

2%

3%3%

3%4%

2%2%

3%3%

8%7%

6%3%

11%9%

7%5%

8%8%

6%4%

13%12%

7%

11%11%

8%7%

7%8%

8%4%

6%6%

4%

6%5%

4%

6%6%

5%

7%7%

5%6%

5%

11%12%

17%

21%22%

22%17%

20%22%

21%17%

19%20%

21%17%

17%18%

16%

17%18%

20%15%

21%22%

28%17%

13%13%

10%7%

11%10%

7%7%

10%10%

7%9%

10%11%

11%

13%13%

10%11%

9%10%

7%11%

Apr '19Feb '19Sep '18

Oct '15 (Pre-Election)




Jul '15 (Pre-Election)*







Justin Trudeau Andrew Scheer Jagmeet Singh Yves-Francois Blanchet

Elizabeth May Maxime Bernier Undecided None

Now we would like to read you a list of different words or phrases that describe the some political leaders. For each word or phrase, please indicate who it BEST describes… [ALL CANADA][asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Leader Qualities: Perceptions that Trudeau is too negative are up 8 points since September 2018 from 9% to 17%

32

Q

Not tracked in September 2018

Strong leadership

Competent

Will stand up for the middle class

Represents positive change

Cares about people like me

Too negative

* The study of July 2015 was conducted before the writ was dropped in August 2015.

Political Attitudes

+51%

+38%

+33%

+4%

-3%

29%

37%

39%

22%

20%

34%

19%

17%

18%

18%

15%

15%

16%

17%

14%

8%

6%

9%

9%

10%

5%

13%

13%

26%

31%

9%

10%

7%

9%

8%

This election is really a race between the Conservativesand the Liberals

We need a federal government that will stand up to thenegative influence of provincial politicians like Doug Ford

and Jason Kenny.

It is time for a change in government here in Canada.

The most important thing in this election is to keep theConservatives out of government

The Liberals may have their problems but they are still thebest party to form government

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree

Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

34

Net Agreement

Attitudes: Majority (55%) of respondents think it’s time for a change of federal government

QDo you agree or disagree with the following statements?[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in government here in Canada. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

35

39%

17% 16%

9%13%

7%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 55%

Disagree: 22%

Net Agreement:+33%

Note: Net agreement is [Total agree]-[Total disagree]

Agree or disagree: 55% think it’s time for a change of government with above-average net agreement from Unaligned respondents

Q

+86%

-27%

+54%

+64%

+45%

+40%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

36

20%18%

14%

10%

31%

8%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 38%

Disagree: 40%

Net Agreement:-3%


Agree or disagree: Plurality of respondents (and 36% of Unaligned respondents) disagree that Liberals are best party to form government

Q

-70%

+72%

-13%

-22%

-18%

-16%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

37

LPC Best Party for GovernmentTi

me

fo

r C

han

ge

Hostile Soft Anti-LPC

Time for Change LPC

Soft Anti-LPC

Soft Anti-LPC

Uncertain Soft LPC

Soft LPC Core LPC

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neutral/ Don’t know

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

Strongly disagree

Somewhat disagree

Neutral/ Don’t know

Somewhat agree

Strongly agree

Based on the two agree/disagree statements “It is time for a change in government here in Canada” and “The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government”, we create a segmentation for analysis.

Time for Change Segmentation: Creating the Segments

38

Core LPC, 19%

Soft LPC, 9%

Time for change LPC, 11%

Uncertain, 13%

Soft anti-LPC, 21%

Hostile, 27%

Do not think it is time for a change and agree the Liberals are best to form government

Think it is time for a change but believe the Liberals are

still best to form government

Think it is time for a change and do not believe the Liberals are

best to form government

Time for Change Segmentation: Respondents were grouped together based on their views of the LPC

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? It is time for a change in government here in Canada.Q Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The Liberals may have their problems but they are still the best party to form government.

[asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? This election is really a race between the Conservatives and the Liberals. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

39

29%

34%

15%

8%5%

9%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 63%

Disagree: 12%

Net Agreement:+51%


Agree or disagree: 2-in-3 (63%) agree that the election is between the two main parties, CPC- and Liberal-identifiers most likely to agree

Q

+74%

+63%

+24%

+41%

+30%

+39%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? The most important thing in this election is to keep the Conservatives out of government. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

40

22%

18% 17%

9%

26%

9%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 39%Disagree: 35%

Net Agreement:+4%


Agree or disagree: Respondents divided on whether or not the most important thing in this election is to keep CPC out

Q

-70%

+53%

+48%

+20%

+15%

-9%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? We need a federal government that will stand up to the negative influence of provincial politicians like Doug Ford and Jason Kenney. [asked of all respondents; n=1,200]

41

37%

19%

15%

6%

13%10%


Somewhatdisagree


Agree: 57%

Disagree: 18%

Net Agreement:+38%


Agree or disagree: Nearly 6-in-10 (57%) feel the government needs to stand up to negative influence of politicians like Ford and Kenney

Q

-19%

+72%

+80%

+36%

+38%

+34%

Conservative

Liberal

NDP

Bloc Quebecois

Green/Other

Unaligned


Net agreement

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For more information, please contact:

Greg [email protected]

Innovative Research Group Inc.56 The Esplanade, Suite 310Toronto ON | M5E 1A7www.innovativeresearch.ca

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