Disaster Recovery Presentation (Corinne Packard) - ULI fall meeting - 102711
Snake River Fall Chinook Proposed Recovery Plan Fall...Patty Dornbusch NOAA Fisheries Presentation...
Transcript of Snake River Fall Chinook Proposed Recovery Plan Fall...Patty Dornbusch NOAA Fisheries Presentation...
Snake River Fall Chinook Proposed Recovery Plan
Snake River Fall Chinook Symposium
West Coast Region
May 16, 2017
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries
Patty Dornbusch NOAA Fisheries
Presentation Overview
1. Listing context 2. Recovery scenarios and goals 3. ESU structure – relevance to scenarios 4. Recovery strategy
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 2
Snake River Fall Chinook: Listing Context • Late 1980s: average annual returns ~ 100 natural-origin adults
• 1990: ~ 78 natural-origin adult fish returned
• 1992: ESA listing (habitat loss, hydropower impacts, overfishing, out-
of-ESU hatchery strays)
• 1995-present: FCRPS actions, IPC actions, hatchery production, harvest impact reductions improve status of ESU
• September 2015: Proposed Recovery Plan
• September 2017: Final Recovery Plan
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 3
Spatial Structure/Diversity Risk
Very Low Low Moderate High
Abundance/ Productivity Risk
Very Low (<1%) HV HV V M
Low (1-5%) V V
V
Lower Main.
Snake
M
Moderate (6 – 25%)
M M M
HR
High (>25%) HR HR HR HR
Status Has Improved Significantly Since Listing
• 2005-2014 geo-mean natural-origin abundance = 6,418 • Productivity (20-year R/S (1990-2009) = 1.5 • Uncertainties: Is abundance sustainable? Productivity of natural fish? • Not meeting de-listing criteria
Proposed Plan Goals: ESA and Broad Sense ESA: The ecosystems upon which Snake River fall Chinook depend are conserved such that the ESU is self-sustaining in the wild and no longer needs the protection of the ESA.
Broad Sense: Addresses natural production beyond ESA minimums.
• Support NPCC Subbasin Plan Visions
• Achieve ESA in a manner consistent with mitigation goals
• Reintroduction above Hells Canyon
• Treaty Rights and Tribal Trust – Both ESA and broad sense goals should support treaty and tribal trust harvest
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 5
Proposed Plan: ESA Recovery Goals Goals, objectives, recovery scenarios, criteria, and metrics
Objectives, scenarios, criteria, and metrics are based on TRT recommendations:
• Each MPG should have low extinction risk:
• half of all pops in the MPG need to be at low risk;
• at least one population at very low risk;
• populations targeted for low or very low risk largest and most productive historically and represent all historical major life history types;
• remaining populations should be maintained.
• Population-level criteria based on VSP parameters (abundance, productivity, spatial structure, diversity)
• Acknowledged could be alternative approaches and policy considerations
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 6
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 7
Historical ESU Structure: Relevance to Recovery Scenarios
8 U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page
Potential Viability Scenarios (Proposed)
Scenario A. Two populations: one highly viable (extant pop), the other viable (reintroduced population above Hells Canyon). Scenario B. One population: highly viable with high certainty. Naturally produced fish well distributed and measured in the aggregate, across ESU. “Placeholder” Scenario. One population: highly viable with high certainty. Substantial amount of natural production from natural production emphasis areas.
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 9
Proposed Recovery Strategy
• Protect and improve status of extant population • Continue ongoing actions that have contributed to
improvements since listing • Identify and implement highest priority additional actions
(through LCMs, RME, etc.) • Preserve and pursue full range of viability scenarios
initially • Including second population above Hells Canyon • Explore NPEA option – develop specific scenario if possible
U.S. Department of Commerce | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration | NOAA Fisheries | Page 10
Proposed Hatchery Strategy • Continue to work through existing processes
• Continue ongoing actions and identify and implement additional actions that reduce impact of hatchery fish
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Proposed Hatchery Actions: Ongoing • Continue to implement BMPs as identified in HGMP BiOp • Continue actions to minimize out-of-ESU strays • Continue to improve estimates of natural- and hatchery-origin
fish over LGR • Continue to validate & improve estimates of hatchery/natural
composition of spawners • Continue to evaluate dispersal and homing fidelity of hatchery
releases • Ensure that adult returns from new hatchery programs (John
Day) do not stray above acceptable levels into Snake River
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Proposed Additional Hatchery Actions • Work through US v. OR co-managers forum to identify
& assess mgmt. frameworks that would achieve delisting by: a) Creating NPEAs that produce substantial level of
natural-origin spawners and low pHOS, or b) Reducing HOS in the population overall
• Model feasibility of frameworks that would result in achieving VSP objectives for highly viable popn. based on performance in NPEAs.
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Proposed Additional Hatchery Actions • Identify data gaps that limit assessment of feasibility
of NPEA management frameworks and implement RME to fill gaps
• Develop appropriate metrics for evaluation of VSP status in NPEAs and other MaSAs
• Assess expense, logistical difficulty, and consequences of implementing NPEA frameworks.
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