SMRs: the global market - Nuclear Institute€¦ · INET & Huaneng, China Small (25 MWe up)...
Transcript of SMRs: the global market - Nuclear Institute€¦ · INET & Huaneng, China Small (25 MWe up)...
Miranda Kirschel (Powered by Atkins)
SMR Feasibility Study
The SMR Study – Global Market Study
What is the SMR Market?
Why SMRs?
How big might it be?
How will it be addressed?
A work in progress
What are the technologies?
“The trend in SMR development has been towards design certification of small modular reactors, defined as advanced reactors that produce electric power up to 300 MW(e), designed to be built in factories and shipped to utilities for installation as demand arises”.
Name Capacity Type Developer
CNP-300 300 MWe PWR CNNC,
operational in Pakistan
PHWR-220 220 MWe PHWR NPCIL, India
Name Capacity Type Developer
KLT-40S 35 MWe PWR OKBM, Russia
CAREM 27 MWe PWR CNEA & INVAP,
Argentina
HTR-PM 2x105 MWe HTR INET &
Huaneng, China
Small (25 MWe up) reactors operating / under construction
Name Capacity Type Developer
VBER-300 300 MWe PWR OKBM, Russia
IRIS 100-335 MWe PWR Westinghouse-led,
international*
Westinghouse SMR 225 MWe PWR Westinghouse, USA*
mPower 180 MWe PWR Babcock & Wilcox + Bechtel,
USA
SMR-160 160 MWe PWR Holtec, USA
ACP100 100 MWe PWR CNNC & Guodian, China
SMART 100 MWe PWR KAERI, South Korea
NuScale 45 MWe PWR NuScale Power + Fluor, USA
PBMR 165 MWe HTR PBMR, South Africa; NPMC,
USA*
Prism 311 MWe FNR GE-Hitachi, USA
BREST 300 MWe FNR RDIPE, Russia
SVBR-100 100 MWe FNR AKME-engineering, Russia
Small (25 MWe up) reactors – development well advanced
* well-advanced designs understood to be on hold
Source:
Name Capacity Type Developer
EM2 240 MWe HTR, FNR General Atomics
(USA)
VK-300 300 MWe BWR RDIPE, Russia
AHWR-300 LEU 300 MWe PHWR BARC, India
CAP150 150 MWe PWR SNERDI, China
ACPR100 140 MWe PWR CGN, China
SC-HTGR (Antares) 250 MWe HTR Areva
Gen4 module 25 MWe FNR Gen4 (Hyperion),
USA
IMR 350 MWe PWR Mitsubishi, Japan
LFTR/TMSR 5, 100 MWe MSR SINAP, China
Integral MSR 29, 120, 288 MWe MSR Terrestrial Energy,
Canada
Fuji MSR 100-200 MWe MSR ITHMSI, Japan-
Russia-USA
Leadir-PS100 36 MWe lead-cooled Northern Nuclear,
Canada
Small (25 MWe up) reactor designs at earlier stages
Source:
Region Trend SMR Activity
North America Numerous designs at varying levels of maturity
South America Small reactor under construction
Europe Interest to own, sell and buy
Russia Barge-Mounted SMR being Commercially Deployed
MENA Interest for desalination and remote locations
Asia ACP100 and HTR-PM starting construction
What are the market drivers?
(Primary energy) Growth to 2035 is 45% (high) 33% (low)
Electricity demand is projected to grow 81% from 2011 to 2035 (from 19,004 TWh to 34,454 TWh) (high), 69% (to 32,150 TWh) (low).
Increased demand is most dramatic in Asia, projected to average 4.0% or 3.6% per year respectively to 2035.
Currently some two billion people have no access to electricity, and it is a high priority to address this lack.
Total electricity consumption in the world today: 4.8TW
Total nuclear electricity: 500GW
Anticipated need in 2035 to be approx: 9TW
Nuclear power provides about 11% of the world's electricity
21% of electricity in OECD countries
2035 ~900GW of nuclear, which represents a new nuclear market of ~700GW
Nuclear Drivers Small Nuclear Drivers
Energy Needs
Low carbon energy sources
Continuous Energy Supply
Diverse Energy Supply
Population Growth
Affordable Electricity
Replacement plant
Decentralisation Weak or No Grid Desalination (EU: 3000
billion m3 of fresh water 2030*)
Affordability – Capital Modularity – Scalable Proximity to customer Replacement capacity
*European Environment Agency:
Power Users Niche Markets
Utilities
Investors
Governments
Industry
Consumers
Energy Intensive Industry
Desalination District Heating On-Site Generation Independent Power
Producers
Demand (high per capita demand) Population growth rate Nuclear-friendly; and non-proliferation Energy Security Failed States Index % limit of plant size on grid Purchasing Power Energy imports Competence in local supply chain R&D Resources Geographic drivers (local) Geopolitics, trade and technology transfer
Economics: capital cost and financing Climate change Over-capacity from GW reactors Potential risk reduction: factor replication It has started Innovative space that this country has done
extremely well in Workforce of 70,000 people, brightest minds “Once in a generation opportunity” to be
involved in new build
Volume, in principle...
There are over 430 commercial nuclear power reactors operable today, delivering over 370GWe
IEA/NEA Nuclear Technology Roadmap projects over 900GWe by 2050
If 30% of the global nuclear market is made up of SMRs that could equate to 2000 at 500MW or 20,000 at 50MW
Plus, some markets can’t support/don’t need large nuclear so SMR numbers may be higher
Barrier, risks, dependencies
Number/scalability of modules Number of Staff Construction, Ops (remote monitoring?), Fuel Costs,
Decom Regulatory process (intrinsic safety?) Sites Grid infrastructure Public acceptability Volatility of gas Cost of carbon Indigenous competition Policy changes First to market
Price (/Mwh)
Nuclear will continue to play a consistent role
SMRs will be economically competitive
They will work!
Regulatory barriers will be overcome
SMRs will be complimentary to large-scale
Cater to regions where large plants are not suitable
A potential significant global market
Niche markets may be harder to quantify
Large markets anticipated in Russia, China, US; plus Europe and Middle East
Being a vendor in one key market limits another
Learner findings are possible
Multiple GW in numerous countries
Value in the order of hundreds of billion £
• What do the utilities think?
• Would you buy an SMR?
• What would make someone take the risk first?