SME Start-up, Survival & Growth
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Transcript of SME Start-up, Survival & Growth
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SME Start-up, Survival
& Growth
Masato Abe, Ph.D.Private Sector and
Development SectionUnited Nations ESCAP
16-19 August 2009
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Day 1
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Introduction
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Objectives of the Four-day Workshop
Understand SMEs’ opportunities & challenges
Learn effective skills & techniques for SME development at both corporate & public levels
Identify effective policy options Share knowledge & experience
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Methodology Lecture Discussion Case study Individual exercise Pair-work Group work Team competition
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Outline Day 1
Introduction Overview of SMEs & their opportunities Business start-up Team competition on business start-up
Day 2 Team competition on business start-up Survival & development
Day 3 Team competition on business start-up
Day 4 Team competition on business start-up Business competitiveness & a guest speaker Policy options for SME development Conclusion & Prizes!
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My Background
Merchant / farmer’s family Japanese / US business Marketing, business administration &
economics UN Asia-Pacific
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What are SMEs?
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Definition of SMEs In Asia-Pacific, typically less than 100-200
employees for manufacturing sectorCountry Number of Employees
Cambodia MicroSmallMedium
< 1011- 5051- 100
China MSME < 100
Lao PDR SmallMedium
≤19 ≤99
Myanmar MicroSmallMedium
< 1010-5051-100
Thailand(4 people per firm)
SmallMedium
< 50≤ 200
Vietnam MicroSmallMedium
1-910-50
≤99
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SMEs’ Role
More than 90% of total enterprises 99% for China; 98% for Thailand (2003); 99%
for Viet Nam (2002) More than 60% of private sector jobs
75% for China; 65% for Thailand (2003); 77% for Viet Nam (2002)
Contributing about 20-30% of GDP 65% of industrial output (China); 47% of GDP &
55% of exports (Thailand); 20% of exports (Viet Nam) (2003)
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SMEs’ Role (cont.)
Innovation & dynamism Graduating to large enterprises (&
multinationals) Many in the informal sector Part of the social safety net
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SMEs’ Contributions
Malaysia Thailand Philippines Republic of Korea
Japan China Indonesia India
SMEestablishments
94 98 99 99 99 99 99 95
Employment 40 56 69 69 88 74 99 80
Value added 26 47 32 46 56 60 63 40
(%)
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SMEs per 1,000 people
Source: ESCAP (2009), developed based on data from World Bank (2000-2006)
61.8
29.6
14.9
63.2
27.0
9.06.3
13.7
1.10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
DevelopedCountries
Developingcountries
LeastDevelopedCountries
China(2000)
Thailand(2002)
Viet Nam(2004)
Global Asia-Pacific
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SME Typology
Export
Domestic/LocalMarket
HighTechLow
Tech
CottageEnterprises
SupportingEnterprises
DomesticMarket-oriented
Enterprises
Export-orientedEnterprises
(Uchikawa & Keola 2009)
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SMEs’ Typical Capacities Disadvantages
Resources Technology & knowledge Network
Advantages Flexibility Specialization (niche market)
Low bargaining power (low price & high cost) Low income (Less profit) High debt structure (high cost) Weak management (less training) Weak HR base (less salary)
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Corporate Life Model
Profit
Years0
Start-up
Pick-up
Maturity
Decline
Discontinuation?
Grow to a large firm
Various supports needed at the different stagesLoss
Growth
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SMEs’ Life Start-up a vulnerable time
2/3 discontinued within 5 years (USA) 40% discontinued within 2 years (UK) Approx. 40% in red after 1 year (Japan)
Pick-up Growth Maturity Decline Discontinuation / dissolution
Inheritance strategy (e.g. aged owner) Few SMEs can grow to large enterprises
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Policy Objectives Increase the number of start-ups Facilitate their growth Increase their survival rate Foster SME graduates (to be large
enterprises) Facilitate the smooth exist of losers,
providing second (& more) chance Encourage to be incorporated
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Challenges for Policymaking Scattered targets (high transaction costs) Lack of the economies of scale Limited public resources Limited understanding about the targets,
i.e. SMEs Limited communication channels Limited knowledge & skills
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Key Strategies Foster entrepreneurship culture Create enabling policy & regulatory
framework Develop infrastructure Enhance access to finance Develop & transfer technology Provide business development services
Accounting, marketing, incubation, technology transfer, intellectual property right, legal advice
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Discussion
Share your observation, view and/or experience in SME development
Any initiatives in your country? Necessary public interventions at a
different growth stage?
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Start-up
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Start-ups: Japanese experience 41.4 years old (entrepreneurs) 3.9 employees 100K US$ of start-up funds
35%: Own capital 15%: Support of family, relatives and friends 50%: Public grants & commercial loans, including public
loan guarantees Man: 84.5%; Women: 15.5% College degree or above: 33.1% 60% of start-ups achieve break-even within 15
months
Source: National Life Finance Corporation (2007)
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Start-ups: Difficult time2/3 discontinued within 5 years (USA)
40% discontinued within 2 years (UK)
Approx. 40% in red after 1 year (Japan)
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Start-ups: Sector Composition
Services 26% 22%
Wholesale/retailer 20% 33%
Restaurants/hotels 17% N/A
Medical/health care 16% N/A
Construction 8% 14%
Manufacturing 5% 11%
Others 8% 20%
Total 100% 100%
Japan(2006)
Thailand(2005)
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SMEs’ Net Income in Japan
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
01 02 03 04 05 06 (Year)
(%)
Manufacturing
Construction
AverageServices
Retail
Transportation
Wholesales
Income before Tax / Total Sales
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
Entrepreneurship
ResourcesManagement Skills
Business Plan
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
ResourcesManagement Skills
Business Plan
Entrepreneurship
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Success Factor 1: Entrepreneurship
The individual and/or team process of doing something new or something different to add value to the society
Risk taking behaviours for future gains Individual personality Family background Education National culture Socioeconomic development Environment …
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
Entrepreneurship
Resources
Business Plan
Management Skills
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Success Factors 2: Management skills
Strategic thinking Marketing Accounting Finance HRM Others
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
Entrepreneurship
Management Skills
Business Plan
Resources
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Success Factor 3: Resources
CapitalsHuman resourcesPhysical assets Intangible resources
Intellectual property Skills & knowledge Networks
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
Entrepreneurship
ResourcesManagement Skills
Business Plan
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Success Factor 4: Business plan
An executable plan that details how the enterprise is going to meet its objectives
Feasibility studyMarketCustomerCompetitorSupplierFinanceetc
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Individual Exercise: Check Points for Start-ups (1)
Assume that you are about to launch a new business
Answer the following questions
Entrepreneurship Do you really want to run business? Why? Are you confident to be successful? How?
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Check Points for Start-ups (2) Management skills
Do you have any business experience? If yes, describe it
Have you forecasted sales, costs and profits? How?
Resources Will your family support your plan? How? Have you secured adequate start-up funds,
with both capitals and loans? How much? Have you hired adequate and quality
employees? How many? What are their roles?
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Check Points for Start-ups (3) Business plan
Do you know customers and market well? Who are the customers?
Can you provide competitive products/services? What are they?
Have you decided where you run the business? Where?
Have you completed a business plan? How?
Share the results with a classmate
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Four Success Factors for Start-ups
Entrepreneurship
ResourcesManagement Skills
Business Plan
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Key Success factors in Literature (1) Entrepreneurship
Deep market knowledge Good personal characters Good ideas
Management skills General management Understanding of legal requirements (ex,
business registration) Cost reduction Cash flow HRM
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Key Success factors in Literature (2) Resources
Family supports Adequate start-up funds Substantial own capitals Assets Technology, knowledge, knowhow Supporters (ex, Engel investors)
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Key Success factors in Literature (3) Business plan
A unique & well developed business plan Clear corporate missions Clear strength Competitive products / services Strong customer base even before started Favourable external environment (market,
customer needs, deregulation, public spending, urbanization, change in transportation systems, technological advancement, economic boom or decline)
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Five Steps for Start-ups
Business Idea
Feasibility Study
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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The First Step: Create Business Ideas
Business Idea
Feasibility Study
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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Step 1: Getting a good idea
Art of business Some useful techniques
1)Reviewing available resources2)“Negative keyword” method3)“Who x What x How” method4)Others
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The 2nd Step: Feasibility Study
Business Idea
Feasibility Study
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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Step 2: Conduct Feasibility Studies Value chain analysis
Customers Products / services Competitors Channels & distributions Suppliers Facilities Employees Advertisements Sales plan Cost structures Funding requirements
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A simplified value chains
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The 3rd Step: Business Plan
Business Idea
Feasibility Study
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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Step 3: Develop a Business Plan A business plan is to:
Detail out the business ideas into key success factors as well as executable actions
Include the outcomes of the value chain analysis
Develop sales, supply and financial plans Apply for financial support to public &
commercial financial institutions Find any missing holes
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The 4th Step: Execution
Business Idea
Feasibility Study
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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Step 4: Execute the Business Plan
Registration & licensing Fund raising Contracts Leasing Facilities Employment Procurement Production Advertisement
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The Final Step: Launching Business
Business Ideas
Feasibility Studies
Business Plan
Execution
Start-up
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Launching Business!
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Business Plan Development
A Team Competition
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Business Plan Competition Each team, which comprises of 3-4 people, will develop a
simplified two-page business plan Any line of business & location (the simpler the better) Use US$ Free access to outside resources (Internet, libraries, MI
staff) & can consult with other teams The lecturer’s multiple roles as financial/service providers:
Governmental, provincial or tax office Business association Financial institution Business service provider (e.g. accounting, consulting,
marketing, legal matters) Two pre-appointed meetings (20 min.) with me (17 & 18
August) A 15-minute team presentation in any format (Thursday
morning, 19 August) Ranked by all participants, MI staff and me Prizes on Thursday afternoon
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Team Formation
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What is the Business Plan? Objectives
Detail out a business idea to workable actions Develop sales, supply & financial plans Mobilize financial support from the public and
commercial financial institutions Find any missing holes
Various users Entrepreneurs
Develop a concrete & executable plan Brush up ideas
Public & commercial financial institutions Evaluate feasibility for funding consideration Use it as a supporting document for grants/loans
Employees / suppliers Know a clear corporate direction
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What is the Business Plan? (continued) Resources mobilization
Finance HR
Three financial scenarios Conservative Most likely Ambitious
Part of the “Plan-Do-See” process
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Necessary Components Marketing Sales forecast Procurement Production Funding Others…
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Marketing Plan To whom: Customers What: Products / services How: Channels & distributions;
Internet; price & sales terms; volume
Where: Country, city, area, shop By whom: Employees When: Business hours
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Sales Forecast The most difficult part in the business
plan, especially for start-ups Uncertainty & seasonal factors Three scenarios (ideally)
Conservative Most likely Ambitious
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Sales Forecast (continued) Different methods by sector
1. Retailer Expected sales amount per 1m x square meters
2. Services (restaurants, barbers/beauty shops) Sales per customer x No. of seats x turnover rate
3. Labour intensive sector (autosales, cosmetics, building cleaning) Sales amount per labour x No. of employees
4. Asset intensive sector (manufacturing, printing, transportation) Capacity of assets x No. of facility x utilization
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Procurement Plan What: Materials, components,
labours, services Where: Suppliers & supply markets When: Leadtime How: Price & payment terms How much: Volume, quantity, duration
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Production Plan (if needed) What: Products & services Where: Factories & warehouses When: Leadtime How: Methods, technology,
machineries, equipments How much: Volume, quantity
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Funding Plan Funds needed for a start-up
Facilities & equipments (factories, warehouses, shops, machines, goods & automobiles)
Operating costs (supplies, salaries, rents, interests) – at least for 2-3 months
Funds raising Own capitals (ideally, more than 50% of total funds) Support from family, relatives, friends & others Public grants Public loans (normally collateral required) Commercial loans (collateral required) Others
Funds Needed & Funds Raising must be equal
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Income Forecast Two kinds of monthly income forecasts
(beginning & 1 year later) Details
Revenues (most likely) Costs of products / services if any Operating expenses
Salaries Rent for facilities Others (advertisements, utilities, etc.)
Interests (5%) / installments of loans, if any Net income
Tax (25%)
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A Simplified Business Plan Two-page business plan, widely used in Japan Two-part format
1. Business Proposal (first page) Line of business Location Start-up date Missions, objectives & business opportunity Background & experience Products & services Strength Challenges & weakness Customers, channels & distributions Suppliers (procurement)
2. Financial planning (second page) Capital requirement & funding plan Income forecast (beginning & 1 year later)
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A Good Business Plan Two parts of the business plan (business
proposal & financial plan) are consistent Funding plan can support both initial asset
investments & operating expenses (at least initial 2-3 months)
Make business in black in 1 year Make sure adequate provision for loan
installments
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Create a Business Idea Get a novel idea through
Knowledge & experience Copying & modifying something marketable
Three techniques1) Reviewing available resources2) “Negative keyword” method3) “Who x What x How” method
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1. Reviewing Available Resources (1)
Human resources Natural endowment Financial assets Tangible assets Human networks Yourself Others
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1. Reviewing Available Resources (2)
Human ResourcesExperience, educationcertificatesinterests &hobbies
NetworksSupporters,
family& friends
MoneyOwn capitalsgrants, loans
& salaries
AssetsBuildings,facilities,equipments & intellectual property
Entrepreneur
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2. “Negative Keyword” Method
Expensive Inconvenient Lacking Late / slow Old / outdated Unstylish Confused Ugly Unsatisfactory Unreliable …
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3. “Who x What x How” Method (1)
Examples
Customers Products / Services Channels & DistributionsX X
Femaleprofessionals
Stylish dressesHigh-end specialized shopat a prestigious location
X X
Middle agedcitizens
Healthy foodsRestaurant with low
calorie dishesX X
Pre-schoolchildren
ConversationalEnglish
Bilingual kindergartenX X
Who What How
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3. “Who x What x How” Method (2)
Who
What
How
Young mid-classprofessionals
Affordablesecondhand
cars
Online auctionw/ quality assurance
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Individual Exercise Come up with 1 to 3 ideas for any line of
business, which you may wish to run if you have opportunity
Use either or all three methods Reviewing available resources “Negative keyword” method “Who x What x How” method
Think twice why you like it (them) Write down your ideas as detailed as possible Discuss the ideas with teammates
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House Cleaning Matters Time schedule Assumptions & logical reasoning Outside resources (Internet, libraries, MI staff) Consultation with other teams Two 20-minute consultative meetings per team
(17 & 18 August) My roles A 15-minute team presentation in any format with
any supplemental materials, plus a 5-minute Q&A session (Thursday morning)
Ranked by all participants Order of the presentations Prizes
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Day 2
Team Competition
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Survival & Growth
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Start-up 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th
High
Revenue
Low
Year
SME Growth Model
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US Venture Growth Model
Source: Kao and Liang (2001)
Sta
rtup
Ear
ly
Dev
elop
men
t
Dev
elop
men
t &
gro
wth
Tra
nsit
ion
Exp
ansi
on
L
evel
of
succ
ess
(m
easu
red
by c
ash
flow
pr
ofit
and
RO
I)
Cash req’d to stay in business
(short term)
Cash drain
Profit req’d to stay in business
(long term)
Cash drain
ROI req’d to support growth & expansion
Growth process
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SMEs’ Growth: Four Critical Issues1. Customer development2. Human resources management3. Risk of unchanged4. Cash flow management
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SMEs’ Growth: Four Critical Issues1. Customer development2. Human resources management3. Risk of unchanged4. Cash flow management
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1. Customer Development (1) Competitiveness of products / services Positioning of products / services New customer development Costs of customer development Customer retention Customer satisfaction Customer relationship management
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High
Cost
Low
SalespersonMass Media(Newspaper,Magazine,TV, Radio)Direct Mail (Mail, Fax,
Telephone)
Email, Homepage
WideTarget CustomersNarrow
1. Customer Development (2)
Trade Fair/Exhibition
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SMEs’ Growth: Four Critical Issues1. Customer development2. Human resources management3. Risk of unchanged4. Cash flow management
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2. Human Resources Management Hiring methods
Family, relatives, friends Word of mouth Newspapers, magazines Internet/websites Governments/local public offices Recruitment consultants Head hunting
Compensation Rewards & recognition
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SMEs’ Growth: Four Critical Issues1. Customer development2. Human resources management3. Risk of unchanged4. Cash flow management
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3. Risk of Unchanged Only species that adapt themselves to
the changed environments can survive ultimately (Darwin’s theory of natural selection)
Danger of unfitting to changing environments
Continuously provide present products & services may be inadequate for future survival and growth
Turnaround before declining
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Three Useful Techniques for Turnaround Management
a. Mission analysisb. Market & Product (Service) Mix Analysisc. SWOT Analysis
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Three Useful Techniques for Turnaround Managementa. Mission Analysisb. Market & Product (Service) Mix Analysisc. SWOT Analysis
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Mission AnalysisIdentify the key tasks of corporate functions / human resources
QuestionsWhat is the mission of a automobile salesperson? What is his/her most important
task? What is his/her most productive
activity?
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Individual ExerciseIdentify the key mission & task in your job
Pick the most critical activity
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Three Useful Techniques for Turnaround Managementa. Mission Analysisb. Market & Product (Service) Mix Analysisc. SWOT Analysis
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Market & Product/Service Mix Analysis Sale promotion
New market penetration
New product/service development
New Business
Present products/services Present MarketX
New Products/Services New MarketX
New Products/Services Present MarketX
Present Products/Services New MarketX
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Team Exercise Conduct the Market & Product Mix Analysis
based on the business plan which your team is developing
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Three Useful Techniques for Turnaround Management1. Mission Analysis2. Market & Product (Service) Mix Analysis3. SWOT Analysis
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SWOT Analysis (1) Probably the most popular technique for turnaround management
Positive Negative
Internal(Strength) (Weakness)
External(Opportunity) (Threat)
X X X X
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SWOT Analysis: A Case (1)Positive Negative
Internal(Strength)- Low cost
- Good after-service
(Weakness)- Little customer
base
External
(Opportunity)- Growing market
(aging, beauty conscious)
- Unsatisfactory products / services
(Threat)- Dominance by market leaders
Hair piece (wig for men) sales through Internet with excellent after services
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Group work Conduct the SWOT analysis for your
developing business plan
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SMEs’ OptionsUnchanged (risk of change)Better start from known areas
Use core competenciesSynergy with the present business
New business plan developmentMarket research for new product
/service developmentCollaborate with others
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SMEs’ Options: Restart-up
PresentBusiness Plan
NewBusiness Plan
New Products / ServicesTurnaround, Diversification, M&A
Changing Business EnvironmentMarket maturity, changed customer needs, globalization, foreign competition
Urbanization, deregulation, less public spending, technology advancement
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SMEs’ Growth: Four Critical Issues1. Customer development2. Human resources management3. Risk of unchanged4. Cash flow management
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4. Cash Flow Management (1) The biggest reason of corporate failure Time gap between receivables & payables
Sales CustomerPayment
Procurement Payment tosuppliers
Receivables
PayablesTime Gap
Operating funds needed
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4. Cash Flow Management (2) Sales terms Procurement terms Short leadtime to cashing Inventory management Sales of unproductive assets Cost reduction Risk of easy loans for operating funds
High interests Late action for fundamental change (ex,
turnaround management)
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4. Cash Flow Management (3) Simple Cash flow forecast
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Team Exercise (Optional) Develop a one-year cash flow forecast for
the business plan which your team is developing
Include it in your presentation in the morning of Thursday for extra credit to your team
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Day 3
Team Competition
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Day 4
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Team Presentations
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Order of Team Presentations Group X on “ “ Group Y on “ “ Group Z on “ “
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Evaluation Rank 1 for the best & 5 for the worst
based on the below criteria: Creativity of business ideas Feasibility of the proposal Financial robustness Quality of the presentation
But do not rank your own team!
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Post-Presentation Discussion
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Question 1
What were difficult?
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Question 2 How did your team solve those
difficulties?
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Question 3 What kinds of risk or uncertainty did you
see in your and other’s business plans?
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Question 4
What are key success factors for business start-ups?
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Question 5 What kind of outside support are most
welcome from: Governments? Local governments (provinces/cities)? Financial institutions? Business associations (e.g. chambers of
commerce)? Business service providers (e.g. accountants,
business consultants, lawyers)? International development agencies?
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Business Competitiveness
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Determinants of Business Competitiveness Internal to enterprise
Contestable market power Capacity to respond effectively to competitors Capacity & flexibility to respond to changing
environment Capacity to create new market niches
External to enterprise Market access Access to resources Business related regulatory framework Supporting services
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Internal vs. External
- Market access- Access to resources
- Business related regulatory framework-Supporting services
- Contestable market power- Capacity to respond effectively to competitors
- Capacity & flexibility to respond to changing environment- Capacity to create new market niches
Enterprise
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Internal: Market Power Branding Customer loyalty Distribution channels Pricing Quality …
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Internal: Capacity to respond effectively to competitors Substitutes for products & services Diversified product & service lines Low cost structure Flexibility …
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Internal: Capability & flexibility to respond to changing environment The availability of key resources Capacity for process & product innovation Flexible supply chains …
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Internal: Capability to create new market niches Marketing capability Culture of innovation Customer (or market) orientation …
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External: Market Access Significant home markets Penetration into export markets GSP treatment Trade and investment liberalization
Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs)
The establishment of foreign operations …
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External: Access to Resources People Skills, knowledge & technology Capitals Supplies Natural endowment …
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External: Regulatory Framework The process of business registration &
licensing Taxation Competition Bankruptcy Property & intellectual property rights Trade & investment policy Customs procedures …
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External: Supporting Services Physical infrastructure & logistics systems General & vocational education Training services Professional services, such as accounting
& legal advice Business incubation R&D & technology transfer… …
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Competitiveness Enhancement QDC
Quality Delivery Cost (price)
Cost saving Productivity up (input vs. output) Flexibility up New idea / new market
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Business Competitiveness Framework
- Market access- Access to resources
- Business related regulatory framework- Supporting services
- Contestable market power- Capacity to respond effectively to competitors
- Capacity & flexibility to respond to changing environment- Capacity to create new market niches
Enterprise
QDC (Quality, Delivery, Cost)
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Others: Business Registration & Licensing Cheaper & faster business registration Incentives to be formal
Reduce business in the informal sector Incentives needed
Access to finance Grants Training Networking Information
Effective & reasonable tax collection system
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Others: Access to Finance Own capitals Family, relatives, friends Commercial loans Public grants Public loans Collaterals
Land registration Micro loans Angles
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Session-end Discussion (1)What are the issues & obstacles
to improve the determinants of business competitiveness in your country?
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Session-end Discussion (2)Share any policy initiatives in
your country to improve business (enterprise) competitiveness
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Session-end Discussion (3)How can you react to improve
pro-business conditions in your country?
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Session-end Discussion (4)Any cooperation with
neighbouring countries to improve business competitiveness in your country?
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Session-end Discussion (5) What should be the role of key
stakeholders to play for SME development? Governments Financial institutes Business associations Business service providers
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Six Areas for Public Interventions Pro-business legal & regulatory framework Supporting infrastructure Enhanced access to finance Entrepreneurship development Technology transfer & adaptation (plus
R&D) Business development services
Entrepreneur centred development strategy
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SME Development Approaches
ADB(2000
)
APO(2007)
DFID(2008
)
GTZ(2010)
ILO(2009
)
JICA(2006)
OECD(2005)
SDC(2010)
UNCTAD(2010)
UNDP(2007)
UNIDO(2010)
USAID(2010)
World Bank(2002)
Policy and regulatory framework
Infrastructure
Access to finance
Entrepreneurship / human resource development
Technology transfer and adaptation
Business development services
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Entrepreneur Centred Development Strategies
Entrepreneurs
Access toFinance
BusinessDevelopment
ServicesTechnology
Infrastructures
BusinessEnvironment
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Feedback
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Prizes!