SMC Global Weekly News Letter (Wisemoney)
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Transcript of SMC Global Weekly News Letter (Wisemoney)
WISE M NEY
®MERRY CHRISTMAS25TH DECEMBER, 2013
Bra
nd
sm
c 2
25
2013: Issue 402, Week: 23rd - 26th DecemberA Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)
(Saurabh Jain)
Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 17-18
EDITORIAL STAFF
Editor Saurabh Jain
Executive Editor Jagannadham Thunuguntla
+Editorial Team
Dr. R.P. Singh Nitin Murarka
Vandana Bharti Tejas Seth
Sandeep Joon Dinesh Joshi
Vineet Sood Shitij Gandhi
Dhirender Singh Bisht Subhranil Dey
Parminder Chauhan Ajay Lakra
Mudit Goyal
Content Editor Kamla Devi
Graphic Designer Pramod Chhimwal
Research Executive Sonia Bamba
REGISTERED OFFICES:
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365
MUMBAI OFFICE:
Dheeraj Sagar, 1st Floor, Opp. Goregaon sports Club, Link Road
Malad (West), Mumbai 400064
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-28805606
KOLKATA OFFICE:
18,Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4, 4th & 5th Floor,
Kolkata-700001
Tel : 91-33-39847000/39801300, Fax No : 91-33-39847004
AHMEDABAD OFFICE :
10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,
C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat
Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03
CHENNAI OFFICE:
Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,
Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.
Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111
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206, 3rd Floor, above CMR Exclusive, Bhuvana Towers, S.D.Road,
Secunderabad - 500003
Tel: 91-40-30780298/99, 39109536
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312, Belshalat Building, Al Karama, Dubai, P.O. Box 117210, U.A.E.
Tel: 97143963120, Mobile : 971502612483
Fax : 9714 3963122
Email ID : [email protected]
Printed and Published on behalf of
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smcindiaonline.com
Investor Grievance : [email protected]
Printed at: S&S MARKETING
102, Mahavirji Complex LSC-3, Rishabh Vihar, New Delhi - 110092 (India)
Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 43035014, Email: [email protected]
tock markets across the globe largely remained firm during the week gone by. In
the two day monetary policy review, U.S. federal reserve decided to reduce the Smonthly bond purchases by $10 billion starting January 2014 on expectation that
the growth will pick up from its recent pace and also the downside risks to the economy
and labor markets have diminished. The fear of Fed's possible tapering had triggered
massive capital outflows between May 2013 and September 2013 from the emerging
markets. Now, market participants are expecting that Fed would unwind the bond
purchases in the next seven months by reducing the pace by $10 billion a month.
Back at home, Dr. Raghuram Rajan surprised the markets in the monetary policy review
by not hiking interest rates citing risks from the U.S. Federal Reserve decision in bond
purchase tapering and waiting for more evidence on the domestic inflationary
environment and is waiting for more evidence on the domestic inflationary environment.
Moreover the Governor said that the RBI is ready to take any corrective action as and
when required to anchor inflationary expectations and at the same time said that the
previous two hikes in the Repo rate would take three to four quarters for giving its effect
in the economy. At this juncture, it may be appropriate to assume that in best case
scenario interest rates would not come down for at least two or three quarters. Foreign
institutional investors have shown their positive interest in the Indian equities even after
the RBI and Fed policy. However, volatility cannot be ruled out in the coming week as a
result of expiry of December contract series.
On the commodities front, the much awaited Fed's decision on tapering gave some jolt to
the commodities prices, especially bullion. Tapering issue amid better performance of
riskier assets sent gold to its biggest annual drop since 1981. Gold breached the level of
$1200 in COMEX. Energy counter reignited on inventory decline news in US amid cold
weather. Most of the industrial metals welcomed the decision of tapering and closed up
except copper and aluminium. Good economic numbers in US are likely to support the
base metals complex and energy counter. Celebration of Christmas time around the
world may result in thin volume trade in commodity exchanges. There are only two high
importance data, which are scheduled this week: GDP of Canada and durable goods order
of US. It is advised not to take long position in commodities as market may trade mixed
due to lack of cues until New Year celebration amid Index rebalancing.
From The Desk Of Editor
On this joyous day, and throughout the coming year, may your life be filled with good luck and prosperity.
Happy Investing!!
4
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support respectively & R1 & R2 indicate first resistance and second resistance respectively.
3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks Closing Trend Date Rate S1 R1 S2 R2 Cl.
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
SENSEX 20709 UP 12.09.13 19317 20200 19800 19400
S&P NIFTY 6167 UP 12.09.13 5728 5850 5750 5780
CNX IT 9329 UP 18.07.13 7306 8800 8600 8400
CNX BANK 11087 UP 19.09.13 11149 11000 10600 10500
ACC 1082 DOWN 13.11.13 1041 1080 1100 1120
BHARTIAIRTEL 323 UP 12.09.13 329 340 330 320
BHEL 163 UP 05.09.13 138 155 150 145
CIPLA 400 DOWN 21.11.13 387 405 410 415
DLF 159 DOWN 26.09.13 136 150 160 165
HINDALCO 119 UP 29.08.13 107 110 105 100
ICICI BANK 1064 UP 12.09.13 951 1060 1020 1000
INFOSYS 3512 UP 18.07.13 2800 3300 3200 3100
ITC 314 DOWN 13.11.13 314 330 336 340
L&T 1061 UP 19.09.13 888 1020 980 950
MARUTI 1781 UP 19.09.13 1480 1680 1640 1590
NTPC 135 UP 26.09.13 150 145 140 135
ONGC 274 UP 31.10.13 294 280 270 265
RELIANCE 854 UP 12.09.13 875 850 840 830
TATASTEEL 411 UP 22.08.13 274 380 360 350
NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWS
Economy
• The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept key policy rates and Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) unchanged in the December 2013 Mid-Quarter Monetary Policy Review. Consequently, the reverse repo rate under the LAF will remain unchanged at 6.75 per cent, and the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate at 8.75 per cent.
• India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) stood at 7.52 per cent in November as compared to 7 per cent in October. The rate was 7.24 per cent during the corresponding month of the previous year.
Capital Goods
• Alstom India Ltd has been awarded a contract worth close to €125 million (around Rs 1,070 crore) by BHEL for the 2X500 MW Neyveli New Thermal Power Project (NNTPP) located at Neyveli in the state of Tamil Nadu in India.
Power
• NTPC has tied up a loan facility for 55 million euro with German developmental financial institution KfW to part finance the capital expenditure of its Mouda thermal power project in Maharashtra.
Pharmaceuticals
• Biocon has entered into a licensing and collaboration agreement with Quark Pharmaceuticals, Inc., for the development of a range of siRNA based novel Therapeutics.
• Lupin has launched the generic version of ViiV Healthcare's (ViiV) Trizivir tablets in the US market with 180-days of marketing exclusivity.
Oil & Gas
• GAIL has doubled the marketing margin it charges from customers on sale of a small volume of gas sourced from state-owned ONGC.
Capital Goods
• Suzlon group said its arm REpower Systems has bagged two contracts for supplying 20 wind turbines in France. The project deliveries, for the wind farm in Somme Soude, are planned for spring 2014, and commissioning for September, 2014.
Engineering
• Larsen & Toubro said its power transmission vertical has bagged a ̀ 2,935 crore order or setting up transmission and distribution network in Qatar.
Chemicals
• Clariant Chemicals (India) will acquire the masterbatch business of Gujarat-based Plasticchemix Industries for `135 crore and the deal is expected to be completed latest by March.
Infrastructure Developers
• Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) had completed `400 crores steam coal import terminal at Visakhapatnam port, eight months ahead of schedule marking an entry on the east coast of India.
Retail
• Shoppers Stop has opened one Clinique door at Virtuous Mall in Surat and with the opening of this door now has 21 Clinique doors.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
• US housing starts surged up 22.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.091 million in November from a rate of 889,000 in October. Economists had expected housing starts to come in at an annual rate of 955,000.
• US industrial production surged up by 1.1 percent in November following a revised 0.1 percent uptick in October. Economists had expected production to rise by 0.6 percent compared to the 0.1 percent drop originally reported for the previous month.
• US existing home sales dropped 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.90 million in November after falling 3.2 percent to 5.12 million in October. Economists had expected existing home sales to dip to an annual rate of 5.02 million.
• US consumer price index was unchanged in November after edging down by 0.1 percent in October. The flat reading for the index came in line with economist estimates.
• Eurozone current account surplus increased to seasonally adjusted EUR 21.8 billion in October from EUR 14.9 billion in September. The surpluses on goods, services and income increased in October, and the deficit in current transfers narrowed from September.
EX-DATE SYMBOL PURPOSE
26-DEC-13 VLSFINANCE BUY BACK-TENDER OFFER
BOARD MEETING SYMBOLPURPOSE
23-DEC-13 FLEXITUFF RAISING FUNDS THROUGH DEBT INSTR.
24-DEC-13 DENABANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
24-DEC-13 ALBK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE,QUALIFIED INSTITUTIONS PLACEMENTS
25-DEC-13 WHEELS DIVIDEND
26-DEC-13 TNTELE RESULTS
26-DEC-13 IDEA FII INVESTMENT
30-DEC-13 SBIN PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
30-DEC-13 CANBK RAISING OF CAPITAL
07-JAN-14 GMBREW RESULTS
07-JAN-14 MANAKSIA SCHEME OF ARRANGEMENT
09-JAN-14 SHAKTIPUMP CHANGE IN DIRECTORS,PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
10-JAN-14 COROMANDEL SCHEME OF AMALGAMATION
10-JAN-14 SYNDIBANK PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
13-JAN-14 EXIDEIND QUARTERLY RESULTS
15-JAN-14 BANKBARODA PREFERENTIAL ISSUE
15-JAN-14 BAJAJFINSV RESULTS
15-JAN-14 BAJFINANCE RESULTS
16-JAN-14 BAJAJ-AUTO RESULTS
16-JAN-14 BAJAJHLDNG RESULTS
20-JAN-14 MIRCELECTR RIGHT ISSUE,RAISING FUNDS THROUGH DEBT INSTR.
21-JAN-14 THERMAX RESULTS
31-JAN-14 KANSAINER RESULTS
03-FEB-14 DOLPHINOFF RESULTS
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
®
5
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap Nifty JuniorSensex BSE Smallcap S&P CNX 500
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
®
0.00
1307.20
1886.00
12.30126.90
13.10
-237.40
-8.30
-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII Activity MF Activity
-0.03 -0.03
1.41 1.32
2.76
0.52
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
-2.38
-1.26
0.65
1.41
2.63
0.56
4.64
4.07
1.11
0.65
2.14
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
1.43
2.69
1.93
2.96
0.14
-1.54
-3.11
2.25
2.89
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
6.86
5.765.27
4.714.17
-5.41
-3.79-3.06
-2.46-2.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Sesa Sterlite Cipla Maruti Suzuki
B H E L Infosys HDFC Bank H D F C Jindal Steel O N G C ICICI Bank
6.776.20 6.05
5.38 5.17
-5.42-4.82
-3.92 -3.79-3.41
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Sesa Sterlite Ranbaxy Labs.
Cipla Maruti Suzuki
B H E L HDFC Bank Kotak Mah. Bank
UltraTech Cem.
H D F C Jindal Steel
The FII data presented for December 17, 2013 is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by all custodians on December 17, 2013 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on December 13, 2013 and December 16, 2013.
33.98
6.05
1.16
43.5
15.31
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
6
® Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1 year. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Face Value (`) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 537.95/315.30
M.Cap (` Cr.) 130638.90
EPS (`) 28.40
P/E Ratio (times) 18.66
P/B Ratio (times) 4.92
Dividend Yield (%) 1.40
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15
Revenue 37425.60 43626.10 49601.80
EBITDA 8080.70 9620.30 11068.70
EBIT 6997.20 8779.60 10167.10
Pre-tax Profit 7859.60 9826.00 11286.80
Net Profit 6635.90 7589.00 8656.80
EPS 26.98 30.93 35.27
BVPS 115.23 135.28 159.89
ROE 23.30 24.50 23.80
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale at the end of June 2013. •The company provides comprehensive IT •During the quarter ended September 2013, the
solutions and services, including systems company has added 45 new customers. The total integration, Information Systems outsourcing, IT number of active customer as on September 2013 enabled services, package implementation, stood at 942.software application development and •Backed by the improved performances in key maintenance, and research and development verticals and geographies, the company during services to corporations globally. the quarter ended September 2013 reported 19%
•The win rates and deal closures improved during growth in the top-line at `10990.70 on YoY basis. the first half of the current fiscal. However, the The bottom-line during the same period grew by second quarter is better than first quarter in win 20% to ̀ 1932.10 crore.rates and deal closures. During the quarter ended ValuationSeptember 2013, the company has signed one During the quarter ended September 2013, the large multi-year deal with a leading banking and company has posted its strongest growth in financial services company in the US. It has also seven quarters. The strategy of focusing on the top 125 won a large multi-year contract with a leading accounts is delivering the results. There is a broad bank in the US during the same period. based growth across the customers. Going forward, the
•The company has signed a definitive agreement growth momentum is likely to continue on the back of to acquire Opus CMC (Opus Capital Markets improved deal win rates and couple large multi-year Consultants LLC), one of the leading US-based deal won by the company. We expect the stock to see a providers of mortgage due diligence and risk price target of ̀ 705 in one year time frame on a target management services for a purchase P/E of 20x and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 35.27.consideration of $75 million that includes a deferred earn-out component. The acquisition will strengthen Wipro's mortgage solutions and outsourcing business and complement its existing offerings in mortgage origination, servicing and secondary market. Opus CMC provides comprehensive risk management solutions to the mortgage industry in the United States.
•The net utilization (excluding trainees) improved to 74.3% during the second quarter of current fiscal from 73.3% in first quarter. The attrition rate increased to 15.4% in the quarter ended September 2013 compared to 13% in first quarter of the same fiscal. The head count declined to 147216 at the end of September 2013 from 147281
P/E Chart
WIPRO LIMITED CMP: 529.90 Upside: 33%Target Price: 705VALUE PARAMETERS
APOLLO TYRES LIMITED CMP: 88.90 Upside: 32%Target Price: 118
Face Value (Rs.) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 101.50/54.60
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 4480.56
EPS (Rs.) 13.82
P/E Ratio (times) 6.43
P/B Ratio (times) 1.32
Dividend Yield (%) 0.56
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
Investment Rationale vehicle segment - which accounts for the bulk of the industry's revenue - in India. Simultaneously, •Apollo Tyres manufactures tyres and tubes for cars, since the company assumed lead early on, Apollo is trucks, farm equipment and light commercial best positioned to capture significant market share vehicles. The company also manufactures and maintain its pole position in the truck-bus automobile flaps and retreading materials. Approx radial segment.77% of sales came from replacement market and
the balance from Original Equipment •The company is powered by strong product brands Manufacturers (OEMs). in its markets - Apollo in India and Vredestein in
Europe. Company enjoys an extensive distribution •On June 2013, the company had announced to network for its key brands across its domestic acquire Cooper Tire & Rubber Co, in an all-cash markets.transaction valued at approximately $2.5 billion
(`14,500 crore). In its latest update the company Valuationhas announced that Delaware Supreme Court has Price hike undertaken by the company coupled with ruled in its favour in its ongoing spat with US-based decline in rubber price has lead to improvement in Cooper Tire over merger agreement. the realization and may continue ahead. New
•The Company has launched its premium European product launches and entry into new geographies brand Vredestein to cater to high-end cars and SUVs indicates robust growth in revenue going forward. We in India. It will initially manufacture Vredestein expect the stock to see a price target of `118 in one tyres in Holland, but may consider production in year time frame on three year average P/E of 7.38x India in the future. The new range will target high- and FY15 (E) earnings of ̀ 15.95.end cars in the country, it will complement its existing brands. The company aims to sell 2,500-3,000 tyres a month initially, and take it to around 5,000 tyres later.
•Apollo Tyres has the advantage of a diversified market base across multiple geographies and is therefore, not dependent on a single domestic market. Furthermore, the company is working to establish operations in large international markets as well.
•The company is making forays to grow its presence in new geographies like Americas, Australia and South East Asia. These could be growth avenues for the future.
•The company is a leading player in the commercial
` in cr
Actual Estimate FY Mar-13 FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15Revenue 12794.60 13226.60 14050.70EBITDA 1456.70 1632.90 1752.80EBIT 1060.10 1227.10 1321.00Pre-tax Profit 841.80 997.10 1116.20Net Profit 595.80 736.40 796.00EPS 11.82 14.57 15.95BVPS 66.81 66.37 84.90ROE 19.10 19.60 17.50
P/BV Chart
11.81
4.67
3.89
73.51
6.12
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at `265.30 on 20th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`194.10 on 05th August 2013 and a 52-week high at `451.80 on 07th January
2013. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly
chart is currently at ̀ 384.17.
It has formed higher lows and higher highs formation in last few months. There
are huge volumes at lower levels indicating strong support, which will push the
stock for the upward momentum in near term. One can buy 255-256 levels with
closing below stop loss of 250 levels for the target of 265-270 levels.
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at 162.40 on 20th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`120.05 on 06th August 2013 and a 52-week high at ̀ 289.25 on 12th March 2013.
The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the weekly chart
is currently at ̀ 245.10.
It has formed ascending triangle formation on the charts and it is on the verge of
breakout in the near term. One can buy in the range of 158-159 levels with
closing below stop loss of 152 levels for the target of 171-173 levels.
`
The stock closed at 208.55 on 20th December 2013. It made a 52-week low at
`152.80 on 04th September 2013 and a 52-week high of `300.25 on 02nd
January 2013. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on
the weekly chart is currently at ̀ 210.16.
After a marginal fall from 233 levels, it rebounded sharply last week by forming
fresh pivot near 195 levels. Moreover, the RSI of this particular scrip is forming
Inverted head and shoulder, which indicates a sharp move in the near term. One
can buy in the range of 205-207 levels with closing below stop loss of 198 levels
for the target of 220-224 levels.
`
CENTURY TEXT
LICHFIN
DLF
®
DERIVATIVES
BASIS GAP IN NIFTY
The Nifty is expected to remain in the range of 6250-6350 levels this week. The put-call ratio of open interest increased and closed at 1.04 levels indicating put
writing. The options open interest remained mixed as the week progressed. Closure of short positions was clearly evident. On the index options front, significant
short accumulation was evident in the 6200 and 6100 put-option strikes. The option concentration continues to be at the 6200-strike put option with a highest
open interest of above 65 lakh shares, closely followed by the 6300-strike call option with above 66 lakh shares in open interest. With the index witnessing
volatile moves along with aggressive writing in put options we expect Nifty December futures to expire around 6300 levels. The Implied Volatility (IV) of call
options closed lower at 15.60%, while the average IV of put options ended at 15.20%. Nifty VIX has decreased towards the weekend and is expected to remain
sideways in the short term. Nifty is expected to remain in the range of 6250-6350 and only a breach on the downside below 6200 will push the index to lower
levels. The move may remain mixed, with selling pressure near 6330-6350 levels.
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY TOTAL OPEN INTEREST (in share)
FIIs ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE (F&O) IN LAST WEEK
(Derivative segment)
®
FIIs ACTIVITY IN F&O IN LAST TEN SESSIONS
(Derivative segment) `(Cr)
SIEMENS (DEC FUTURE)
Buy: Above `655
Target: `673
Stop loss: `649
PNB
Buy DEC600. CALL 9.00
Sell DEC620. CALL 3.20
Lot size: 500
BEP: 605.80
Max. Profit: 7100.00 (14.20*500)
Max. Loss: 2900.00 ( 5.80*500)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURESTRATEGY
BATAINDIA
Buy DEC1040. CALL 7.00
SellDEC1060. CALL 3.40
Lot size: 250
BEP: 1043.60
Max. Profit: 1600.00 (6.40*250)
Max. Loss: 900.00 ( 3.60*250)
LICHSGFIN
Buy DEC210. CALL 3.10
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 213.10
Max. Profit: unlimited
Max. Loss: 3100.00 ( 3.10*1000)
BULLISH STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
M&M (DEC FUTURE)
Buy: `978
Target: `1009
Stop loss: `968
Above
TITAN (DEC FUTURE)
Sell: `227
Target: `219
Stop loss: `230
Below
-1106.15
3736.95
-1987.46
-570.05 -722.33 -609.57-979.72 -955.05
-564.27-176.01
-3000.00
-2000.00
-1000.00
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
06-Dec 09-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec
BUY21.0%
SELL79.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
05-Dec 06-Dec 09-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec
741250
288800 329350 323200
1623550
2058450
5479950
7634500
48988004767200
27449002817500
2103750
2625150
3238650
57981505517050
4542050
2517450
527300 625150289100
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
6000000
7000000
8000000
9000000
5500 5700 5800 5900 6000 6100 6200 6300 6400 6500 6600
Call Put
8
9
BHARTIARTL 13548000 13306000 -1.79 0.27 0.39 0.12 30.67 33.26 2.59
DLF 26628000 26829000 0.75 0.44 0.58 0.14 48.08 43.28 -4.80
HINDALCO 24354000 22222000 -8.75 0.38 0.59 0.21 38.86 36.47 -2.39
HINDUNILVR 7051500 6777500 -3.89 0.47 0.47 0.00 22.13 21.51 -0.62
ICICIBANK 10893250 10326500 -5.20 0.81 0.53 -0.28 43.01 32.76 -10.25
IDEA 8568000 8706000 1.61 0.49 0.47 -0.02 32.61 27.05 -5.56
INFY 3551625 3246625 -8.59 1.48 1.59 0.11 21.22 26.87 5.65
ITC 31545000 26900000 -14.72 0.43 0.38 -0.05 21.26 22.19 0.93
JPASSOCIAT 48368000 40444000 -16.38 0.59 0.61 0.02 54.14 54.18 0.04
NTPC 19868000 17016000 -14.35 0.41 0.36 -0.05 33.95 26.22 -7.73
ONGC 12558000 11915000 -5.12 0.51 0.47 -0.04 27.60 31.95 4.35
RANBAXY 11212000 9526000 -15.04 0.42 0.54 0.12 38.12 42.85 4.73
RCOM 35644000 34386000 -3.53 0.39 0.45 0.06 42.95 39.48 -3.47
RELIANCE 13031500 11592250 -11.04 0.37 0.44 0.07 21.19 21.66 0.47
NIFTY 22004650 18971200 -13.79 1.05 1.04 -0.01 16.70 15.51 -1.19
SAIL 20280000 19060000 -6.02 0.58 0.46 -0.12 31.04 26.07 -4.97
SBIN 6253125 5877875 -6.00 0.45 0.47 0.02 31.96 32.11 0.15
TATASTEEL 16044000 15493000 -3.43 1.10 1.19 0.09 30.94 29.48 -1.46
UNITECH 125120000 116560000 -6.84 0.30 0.28 -0.02 64.96 59.67 -5.29
IMPORTANT INDICATORS OF NIFTY AND OTHER ACTIVE FUTURE CONTRACTS
OPEN INTEREST PCR RATIO IMPLIED VOLATILITY
SCRIPTS PREV. CURRENT % PREV. CURRENT PREV. CURRENT WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE WEEK WEEK CHANGE
DERIVATIVES
Put Call Ratio Analysis : The Put-Call open interest ratio of Nifty has increased to
1.04from1.03. At the end of the week, the maximum stocks had a positive of
change in put call open interest ratio.
Implied Volatility Analysis : The Implied Volatility (IV) for Nifty futures this week
has decreased to15.51% from 16.70%.The IV of the stock futures has changed this
week ranging from -10.25% to 5.65%.
Open Interest Analysis : The open interest for the index at the end of this week
has decreased by 13.79%as compared to the previous week. All future stocks saw
changes in their open interest ranging from -16.38% to1.61%.JPASSOCIAThas the
maximum decrease in open interest as compared to other stocks.
Statistical Analysis·
Open 6224.70 High 6289.60
Low 6151.10 Close 6177.80
NIFTY & IV CHART NIFTY ANALYSIS
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15
16
17
18
19
20
6000
6100
6200
6300
6400
13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec
Nifty Close IV
10
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Turmeric futures (Jan) is seen heading towards 6800 levels, buoyed by rising upcountry demand. At the spot market, the exporters and traders are covering up the spice to meet their current orders & are also purchasing to build inventories. There are talks that turmeric from the new crop will begin arriving for sale from the year-end. The growers are holding their produce & bringing only limited stock of the fine variety as they expect prices to increase after mid- January. Cardamom futures may remain in bearish zone pressurized by the higher arrivals amidst slack demand at auctions. During the current season, from Aug 1, total arrivals up to December 15 were 10,086 tonnes as against 5,496 tonnes during same period a year ago. Moreover, the availability of exportable variety is short in supply due to the climatic change, there has been reduction in the size of the capsules. Jeera futures (Mar) is likely to maintain its consolidation in the range of 12800-13500 levels, with upside being capped by the estimates of higher production. It is reported that around 90-95% of the sowing has already completed in the major parts of Gujarat. The current year jeera production is estimated to be around 40-42 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 5-7 lakh bags from the year. The carryover stocks are estimated at 7 lakh bags as against 9-10 lakh bags in the same period of the last year. The crop is in early establishment stage in parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan. Weather prevailing in this area is favorable for the crop at this stage.
SPICES
Bullion counter is expected to remain on bearish path as the decision by the Fed to scale back its monetary stimulus measures from $85 billion to $75 billion kept the sentiment downbeat. Moreover, the stronger US stock markets reduced the demand as safe haven of the yellow metal. Meanwhile, the movement of local currency rupee will impact prices of yellow metal on the domestic bourses. Gold may move in the range of 27200-29000 in MCX. White metal silver can hover in the range of 41500-45000. Recently COMEX Gold closed at the lowest in three years as traders capitulated after the Federal Reserve stated that it would begin tapering its monetary stimulus, extending a slide, sending the metal to its biggest annual drop since 1981. SPDR holding also took a plunge as investors reduced their gold holdings in the fund. Billionaires George Soros and Daniel Loeb sold their entire investments in the SPDR Gold Trust in the second quarter. Fed officials raised their assessment of the employment outlook, predicting the jobless rate will fall as low as 6.3 percent by the end of next year, compared with a September forecast of 6.4 percent to 6.8 percent. Policy makers may hold interest rates close to zero percent even if unemployment falls below the 6.5 percent rate and projected inflation continues to run below 2 percent. Hedge funds and other speculators raised their net long position in Comex gold by 25 percent to 33,449 futures.
BULLIONS
Crude oil can trade sideways with upside bias due to signs of improving US economy and bullish US stock markets. Overall crude oil can move in the range of 5900-6400 in MCX and $95-104 in NYMEX. The Fed is trimming its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, starting in January, amid improving job market prospects. Recently decrease in crude oil stockpiles has supported the prices. U.S. crude supplies fell 2.94 million barrels last week. Volume is expected to decline amid Christmas holidays in this week. Iran and western nations resumed talks in Geneva to work out the nuclear deal in return for an easing of sanctions on Iran. According to the International Energy Agency “U.S., the world's largest oil consumer, will account for about 21 percent of global demand this year”. The US winter demand can keep the upside momentum intact in Natural gas as it can test 285 levels in MCX. Recently Energy Information Administration stated that the stockpiles fell 285 billion cubic feet to 3.248 trillion in the week ended Dec 13. It was the largest weekly decline ever, beating the January 2008 record of 274 billion. Gas production has fallen 25 billion cubic feet since the first week of December, mainly in the Rockies and the Midcontinent region. Natural gas demand continues to support the prices. The heating season from November through March is the peak-demand period for the fuel in the lower 48 states.
ENERGY COMPLEX
OTHER COMMODITIES
Guar complex is likely to fall further on mounting new supplies in local mandies. The total daily arrivals of guar seed are being reported higher at around 1-1.20 lakh bags. It is being estimated that the total production of guar seed in the current year is estimated at 24 lakh tonnes against 21 lakh tonnes reported in the previous year. The average crushing margin of guar seed has also declined in the second week of this month at `-278/quintal which was ̀ -240/quintal in the first week of this month, due to decrease in Churi and korma prices. Sugar futures (Jan) is expected to extend its fall towards 2710 levels. In the domestic market, the stockiests are offloading their old stocks to make room for the new ones. Moreover, due to ample supply the bulk buyers are keeping away from the fresh buying. The export front is also looking bleak as ICE raw sugar futures and Liffe whites extended losses to 3-1/2-year lows depressed by the rising global stocks following several seasons when production outstripped demand. As cited by the Unica, Brazil's 2013/14 center-south cane crush is expected to come close to the original April forecast of 589.7 million tonnes. Chana futures (Jan) would possibly breach 2950 levels. The factors such as availability of cheap imported chana, slack buying at the spot markets & stockiest releasing their stocks would contribute to the bearish sentiments. It is estimated that total production of chana in the current year is likely to be around 75-76 lakh tonnes, up 4-5 lakh tonnes from the last year.
Good economic numbers in US are likely to support the base metals complex as firm demand from China and decline in stockpiles in LME are supporting the prices. Red metal copper can trade in the range of 455-475. China's copper imports rose 19 percent last month as a trade surplus widened to the biggest in more than four years, signaling a sustained economic recovery. Stockpiles monitored by the LME fell to the lowest since February. Indonesia, the biggest producer of mined nickel, also produces copper and is set to start an export ban on mineral ores next month. Zinc prices can hover in the range of 122-129 in MCX. Over the last fifteen trading sessions zinc stocks at the LME designated warehouses declined by 64,350 MT on the back of improving demand prospects. Nickel prices can trade in the range of 870-920 in MCX. PT Freeport Indonesia stated that it would have to cut mine output to about 40 percent of maximum capacity if the ban is fully imposed. As per Glencore Xstrata Plc, it might take at least four to six weeks for its Pasar smelter in the Philippines to return to normal operations after typhoon damage. Battery metal lead can move in the range of 131-137. Lead inventories at the LME warehouses have been broadly declining since the month of November which is supporting gains in the commodity. Aluminum can move in the range of 106-113. Aluminum inventories surged over 60,275 MT in LME can keep the upside capped.
BASE METALS
Mustard futures (Jan) is expected to consolidate in the range of 3550-3780 levels. The short covering may remain capped due to the projection of bumper crop this year, favored by the optimum condition over growing areas. Sowing is progressing well in key producing states & is at vegetative stage. Intercultural operations like thinning, weeding etc are being carried out in north India. Overall weather is good for the crop and there is no major threat of pests and disease as yet. CPO futures (Jan) is likely to trade in the range of 545-560 levels. The demand in the domestic market is tapering off as it solidifies during the winters. On the contrary, the counter on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange is getting support from the market expectations that exports may rise after the Malaysia's ringgit depreciated to 3.2690 against the greenback, weakest since October 4, 2013. Soybean futures (Jan) will possibly manage to take support above 3750 levels, cushioned by a weaker local currency against dollar. Extending its losses, the rupee fell by 1.57% last week to 62.48 levels, after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to start tapering its stimulus program from January. On CBOT, U.S soybean futures (Jan) is expected to face resistance near 1360 levels. The forecast for record production in the two South American & arrivals to hit the market with the commencement of harvesting in January would lend a bearish sentiment to the counter.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Closing as on 19.12.2013
11
NOTES : 1) Buy / Sell 25% of Commodity at S1/R1 respectively & rest 75% at S2/R2 respectively.2) S1 & S2 indicate first support & second support & R1 & R 2 indicate first resistance & second resistance. 3) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly
basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.4) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities.
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
EXCHANGE CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN (JAN) 3824.50 10.10.13 UP 3681.00 3600.00 - 3300.00 - 3050.00
NCDEX JEERA (MAR) 12975.00 03.10.13 DOWN 12607.00 - 13100.00 13500.00 13700.00
NCDEX CHANA(JAN) 2985.00 19.12.13 DOWN 2985.00 - 3400.00 3700.00 4000.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS (JAN) 3608.00 13.11.13 UP 3816.00 3550.00 - 3450.00 - 3350.00
MCX MENTHA OIL (JAN) 843.70 13.11.13 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM (JAN) 692.90 28.02.13 DOWN 965.00 - 780.00 830.00 860.00
MCX SILVER (MARCH) 43869.00 26.09.13 DOWN 48639.00 - 47000.00 50000.00 53000.00
MCX GOLD (FEB ) 28362.00 26.09.13 DOWN 29865.00 - 30000.00 30500.00 31000.00
MCX COPPER (FEB) 460.40 12.12.13 UP 459.90 440.00 - 425.00 - 415.00
MCX LEAD (JAN ) 136.50 19.12.13 UP 136.50 125.00 - 115.00 - 110.00
MCX ZINC (JAN ) 124.90 19.12.13 UP 459.90 115.00 - 110.00 - 105.00
MCX NICKEL(JAN ) 894.00 12.09.13 DOWN 879.20 - 920.00 - 950.00 980.00
MCX ALUMINUM (JAN ) 110.95 26.09.13 DOWN 111.65 - 114.00 - 118.00 123.00
MCX CRUDE OIL (JAN) 6188.00 26.09.13 DOWN 6415.00 - 6200.00 - 6400.00 6550.00
MCX NATURAL GAS (JAN ) 278.20 28.11.13 UP 247.20 260.00 - 250.00 - 240.00
TREND RATE TREND S1 R1 S2 R2 CLOSING
*
TREND SHEET
COMMODITY
LEAD MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at ̀ 134.90 on 19th December '13. The contract made its high of
`135.45 on 20th December '13 and a low of ̀ 126.75 on 9th December '13. The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 132. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 61. One can sell in the
range 136-137 with the stop loss of ̀ 138.50 for a target of ̀ 131.
MENTHA OIL MCX (DECEMBER) contract closed at 832.50 on 19th December '13. The contract made its
high of `920.10 on 13th November '13 and a low of `820.50 on 17th December '13.The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 843.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 35.One can buy in the
range 825-815 with the stop loss of ̀ 800 for target of ̀ 865.
`
JEERA NCDEX (MARCH) contract closed at 12975.00 on 19th December '13. The contract made its high
of `13315.00 on 26th November '13 and a low of `12550.00 on 12th December '13.The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 12942.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53. One can buy in the
range 12900-12800 with the stop loss of ̀ 12650 for a target of ̀ 13300.
`
®
LEAD MCX (DECEMBER)
MENTHA OIL MCX (DECEMBER)
JEERA NCDEX (MARCH)
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Much awaited decision on tapering by Fed came last week, which gave a jolt to the commodities
prices. Fed, finally decided to reduce its monthly asset purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion.
The Fed's purchases will be divided between $40 billion in Treasuries and $35 billion in mortgage
bonds starting in January, 2014. Dollar index jumped after the Fed decision. Before that it saw
multi week decline on selling pressure. In the energy counter, both crude oil and natural gas
closed up. Oil prices rose, buoyed by news that U.S. supplies fell more than expected last to last
week. Tapering announcement indicated confidence about the economy, which is likely to
increase energy demand in the biggest consumer nation. Natural gas futures climbed in New York
to the highest level since July 2011 following a government report that showed a record drop in
U.S. inventories. Stockpiles fell 285 billion cubic feet to 3.248 trillion in the week ended 13
December 2013. It was the largest weekly decline ever, besting the January 2008 record of 274
billion. Most of the industrial metals prices augmented except copper and alumiinum. Copper
declined as dollar index strengthened after the Federal Reserve decided to taper its monthly
bond purchases. Bullion counter also reacted negative on a tapering issue. In COMEX, it breached
the level of $1200 and in MCX it breached the mark of 28400.
On the agri commodities front, mentha prices saw sharp decline, but recovered some of its
weekly losses due to tight stocks position in the physical market on the back of less arrivals from
Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh. Overall the trend of oil seeds and edible oil counter was mix. Refined
soya oil futures fell hit their lowest level in more than two months, weighed by weak Malaysian
palm, while rapeseed also eased on higher area under cultivation. Indian farmers had sowed
rapeseed on 6.65 million hectares as of Dec. 12, up 4.6% from a year earlier. Somehow soyabean
and crude palm oil managed to trade high. In BMD, crude palm oil witnessed limited upside. It
couldn't breach its important resistance of 2700 on weaker competing soy markets in China and
the United States. Castor seed saw a very strong move after a long consolidation on speculation
that output will be lower this year. Output is estimated at one million tonnes this year as against
1.4-1.5 million tonnes in the last couple of years. In spices counter, turmeric and jeera closed the
week in a positive territory while chilli and cardamom were unable to prolong its previous
bullishness.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 11.12.13 18.12.13 DIFFERENCEQTY.
BARLEY MT 999 669 -330
CASTOR SEED MT 0 343 343
CHANA MT 20186 18606 -1580
CHILLI MT 180 35 -145
COTTONSEED OILCAKE MT 2686 10529 7843
JEERA MT 372 108 -264
MAIZE MT 3779 6499 2720
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 6828 7110 282
SOYA BEAN SEEDS MT 3173 3960 787
SUGAR M MT 1169 729 -440
WHEAT MT 0 0 0
COMMODITY UNIT 12.12.13 19.12.13 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 74.80 74.80 0.00
KAPASIA KHALLI BALES 2961.45 3554.56 593.11
GOLD KGS 90.00 48.00 -42.00
GOLD MINI KGS 22.60 22.60 0.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 2.31 2.18 -0.14
MENTHA OIL KGS 2592913.40 2558713.90 -34199.50
MILD STEEL MT 344.85 334.91 -9.94
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 36171.34 36704.82 533.48
•Gold Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) had record
outflows of $36.4 billion in the first 11 months of the
year.
•The global nickel market surplus more than doubled to
147,600 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2013 compared
to the same period last year.
•Jakarta Futures Exchange (JFX) has received
government backing to launch coffee and rubber
futures contracts.
•India's exports of gold jewellery fell by almost a third
year-on-year in November as restrictions continued to
hit shipments.
•China will raise the import tax on non-alloyed nickel
such as refined metal to 1% in 2014 from zero in 2013.
•The London Metal Exchange (LME) has approved its first
warehouse in Dutch town Moerdijk.
•China has set the benchmark price for its sliding-scale
tax on cotton imports at 15,000 yuan per ton in 2014,
raising it by 1,000 yuan from the current level.
•Sugar production at Indian mills halved to 2.5 million
tonnes between Oct. 1 and Dec. 15 from a year ago.
•The Cabinet has approved a scheme of interest free
loans worth 6,600 crs to sugar mills as a bailout
package.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
QTY.
8.35
2.89 2.852.51
2.18
-9.09
-7.37
-5.42
-3.58 -3.52
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
TURMERIC KAPAS CORIANDER CRUDE OIL CASTOR SD NEW GUAR GUM GUAR SEED CHANA RM SEED GOLD NEW
-11.73
-11.17
-3.64
-3.12
-2.25
4.20
3.152.74
2.46
1.36
-14.00
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
GUARGUM GUARSEED GOLD CARDAMOM SILVER 1000 POTATO BR. CRUDE OIL
KAPAS CRUDE OIL NATURAL GAS
A Fundamental update on Wheat
13
SPOT PRICES (% change)
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 13.12.13 19.12.13 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1796.00 1781.50 -0.81
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 7219.00 7217.00 -0.03
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 2137.00 2163.00 1.22
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 13960.00 14150.00 1.36
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 1964.50 1988.00 1.20
GOLD COMEX FEB 1234.60 1193.60 -3.32
SILVER COMEX MAR 19.60 19.19 -2.13
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX FEB 96.93 99.04 2.18
NATURAL GAS NYMEX JAN 4.35 4.46 2.51
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
Domestic Fundamentals
• With sufficient soil moisture due to late monsoon rains and adequate irrigation water available in major reservoirs in the growing areas, planting of wheat is likely to gather momentum.
• Planting of wheat is likely to continue through early January in eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar due to the delayed harvest of rice.
• India seems to be heading toward another bumper 2013 wheat outturn, assuming normal weather conditions follow throughout the season.
• Currently, wheat sowing of the 2013-14 crop year (July-June) is underway. Farmers have sown wheat in 21.40 million hectare so far, higher than 18.34 million hectare in the same period last year.
• On December 1, India's wheat stocks stood at 31 million tonnes, three times the mandated quantity for the October-December quarter.
International Fundamentals
• Australia reduced its wheat export forecast, even as farmers join producers from Canada to Russia in harvesting bigger crops, as lower stockpiles curb supplies in the world's third-biggest shipper.
• Canada's wheat harvest is estimated to rise 38 percent to a record 37.05 million tons, according to Statistics Canada.
• Global inventories before the start of Northern Hemisphere harvests in 2014 will be 182.78 million metric tonnes as Canadian and Australian crops increase compared with a year earlier, estimated by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
India's wheat exports catching pace
• In the early November, the government lowered the Minimum Export Price (MEP) for sale of government wheat from $300 per ton FOB to $260 per ton FOB. This has paved the way for resumption of government wheat exports against the 2.0 MMT export quota announced in August 2013.
• United States, Canada and Australia were selling the same quality of wheat in the range of USD 270-275 per tonne.
• India's MY 2013/14 wheat exports are likely to reach 6.0 MMT.
• State-owned Food Corporation of India (FCI) is expecting to earn more than Rs 3,400 crore from wheat exports in the current fiscal.
• The rise in the number of bids from global buyers indicates the growing interest in Indian wheat in the current market scenario as supplies from Russia and Ukraine are seen dwindling with the onset of winter.
Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS)
• The government has planned to sell around 8.5 million tonnes of wheat through the open market till March 2014 before the new procurement season starts, at base price of ̀ 1,500 per quintal plus the freight depending on the location.
• Till date the government has managed to sell just about 1 million tonnes due to lukewarm response from traders.
Plans ahead
• The central government plans to increase the buffer stocking and strategic reserve limits of Food Corporation of India (FCI) for both wheat and rice.
• The move could push up the requirement by at least 50% from the current norm. (The previous such exercise to alter the buffer norm was in 2005. After that, an extra five million tonnes of wheat and rice was added as strategic reserve from 2009 on.)
Price Scenario of 2013
• On CBOT, wheat prices slumped 21% this year on an outlook for expanding supply, with world production forecast to climb to an all-time high.
• On NCDEX, wheat futures has risen 23.72% this year to 1695 levels, near to its all time high of 1705 levels, supported by rising prospects of exports & global demand for Indian wheat, on account of its competiveness with other major countries.
• On NCDEX, wheat futures has risen 23.72% this year to 1695 levels, near to its all time high of 1705 levels, supported by rising prospects of exports & global demand for Indian wheat, on account of its competiveness with other major countries.
®
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
12.12.13 19.12.13
ALUMINIUM 5422675 5407550 -15125
COPPER 399875 384950 -14925
NICKEL 253890 255246 1356
LEAD 224375 219100 -5275
ZINC 927750 904925 -22825
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 13.12.13 19.12.13 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT JAN Cent per Bushel 1327.50 1327.00 -0.04
Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 425.50 430.50 1.18
CPO BMD MAR MYR per MT 2570.00 2573.00 0.12
Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 443.90 438.80 -1.15
-2.46
-1.95
-1.88
-1.51
-0.06
0.05
0.06
0.94
1.12
1.19
1.53
1.92
2.45
5.37
6.48
-3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00
SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
GOLD 10 GMS (MUMBAI)
CHANA (DELHI )
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
CHILLI (GUNTUR)
JEERA (UNJHA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
MASOOR (INDORE)
RUBBER (KOCHI)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 62.35 62.59 61.85 62.32
EUR/INR 85.44 85.82 85.05 85.25
GBP/INR 101.35 102.47 100.66 102.03
JPY/INR 60.32 60.74 59.75 59.88
(Source: FX Central, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
18th Dec: India's oil imports from Iran fell 34.8 percent in April-November from a year ago
18th Dec: Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised investors by keeping rates unchanged.
18th Dec: U.S. private-sector activity continued to expand in December18th Dec: U.S. housing starts surged to their highest in nearly six years in November19th Dec: A gauge of future U.S. economic activity marched higher in
November19th Dec: U.S. home resales hit a near one-year low in November19th Dec: Obama administration says U.S. debt ceiling could be hit in
February
EUR/INR (DEC) contract closed at 85.25 on 19th December'13. The contract made its high of `85.82 on 16th December'13 and a low of `85.05 on 19th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 85.03.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 48.75. One can buy above 85.20 for a target of 86.50 with the stop loss of 84.60.
`
JPY/INR (DEC) contract closed at 59.88 on 19th December'13. The contract made its high of `60.74 on 16thDecember'13 and a low of `59.75 on 19th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 60.38.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 33.30. One can sell below 59.25 for a target of 58.10 with the stop loss of ̀ 59.80.
`
Market Stance
Rupee started the week with smart gains on the back of inflows tied to dollar
sales from the foreign banks and corporate, even as high wholesale prices.
However, the local currency could not mange to sustain its gains and ended
the week near unchanged line as rupee lost its value as against dollar as the US
Federal Reserve began its long-awaited tapering. Moreover, euro also lost its
grounds as against dollar, which in turn impacted the local currency in India.
Adding to that, Reserve Bank of India governor, Raghuram Rajan, took the
market completely by surprise on Wednesday, by keeping the repo rate
unchanged in the face of overwhelming expectations of an increase citing the
tenuous state of the economy and hopes that food prices may be declining.
The central bank admitted that the decision to maintain the status quo had
been a close-run thing but that the situation merited a pause in the policy
tightening war on inflation.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (DEC) contract closed at ̀ 62.32 on 19th December'13. The contract made its high of `62.59 on 19th December'13 and a low of `61.85 on 16th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 62.16.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 50.05. One can sell below 61.85 for a target of 60.75 with the stop loss of 62.50.
GBP/INR (DEC) contract closed at 102.03 on 19th December'13. The contract made its high of `102.47 on 19th December'13 and a low of `100.66 on 18th December'13 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 101.49.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 53.23. One can sell below 101.0 for a target of 100.00 with the stop loss of 101.60
`
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
14
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Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS
23rd Dec USD Personal Income -0.10%
23rd Dec USD Personal Spending 0.30%
23rd Dec USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) 1.10%
23rd Dec USD U. of Michigan Confidence 82.5
24th Dec GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase 42808
24th Dec USD MBA Mortgage Applications
24th Dec USD Durable Goods Orders -2.00%
24th Dec USD Durables Ex Transportation -0.10%
24th Dec USD House Price Index (MoM) 0.30%
24th Dec USD New Home Sales (MoM) 25.40%
26th Dec USD Initial Jobless Claims
IPOIPO
IPO TRACKER
Company Sector M.Cap(In `Cr.) Issue Size(in Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
` *
Just Dial service provider 8886.28 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1268.20 139.28
Repco Home Fin Finance 1989.12 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 320.00 86.05
V-Mart Retail Trading 398.53 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 221.90 5.67
Bharti Infra. Telecom 33414.82 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 176.90 -19.59
PC Jeweller Jewellary 1497.28 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 83.60 -38.07
CARE Rating Agency 2189.21 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 754.90 0.65
Tara Jewels Jewellary 199.91 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 81.20 -64.70
VKS Projects Engineering 52.92 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.84 -98.47
Speciality Rest. Restaurants 575.73 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 122.60 -18.27
T B Z Jewellary 866.77 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 129.95 8.29
MT Educare Miscellaneous 349.07 99.00 12-Apr-12 80.00 86.05 87.75 9.69
NBCC Construction 1657.80 124.97 12-Apr-12 106.00 100.00 138.15 30.33
Olympic card. Media 41.02 24.75 28-Mar-12 30.00 29.95 25.15 -16.17
Multi Comm. Exc. Exchange 2117.01 663.31 9-Mar-12 1032.00 1387.00 415.10 -59.78
Indo Thai Sec. Finance 11.72 29.60 2-Nov-11 74.00 75.00 11.72 -84.16
Vaswani Inds. Steel 7.82 49.00 24-Oct-11 49.00 33.45 2.73 -94.43
Flexituff Intl. Packaging 506.59 104.63 19-Oct-11 155.00 155.00 220.45 42.23
Prakash Constro. Construction 9.05 60.00 4-Oct-11 138.00 145.00 0.72 -99.48
PG Electro. Consumer Durables 304.08 120.65 26-Sep-11 210.00 200.00 185.30 -11.76
SRS Jewellary 486.12 203.00 16-Sep-11 58.00 55.00 34.90 -39.83
*Closing prices as on 19-12-2013
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15
IPO NEWS
Pre-poll euphoria: Strong response for PGCIL's) follow on offer spurs companies to fast-track IPO plans
Power Grid Corporation's follow-on public offer has sparked life into an otherwise insipid primary market, driving merchant banks to quickly work on draft
offer documents so that they can ride the pre-poll market tide. At least a dozen companies, including BSE, GMR Airport, Shemaroo Entertainment, Wonderla
Holidays, a few e-commerce companies like Bharat Matrimony and some state-owned firms are planning to launch public offers in the next three months.
IPO grading will no longer be compulsory, says regulator
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) on Tuesday said grading of Initial Public Offers, or IPOs, will no longer be compulsory. A formal
announcement will be made by the capital markets regulator in the next 10 days. SEBI made grading of IPOs compulsory in April 2007. Grading from at least
one credit rating agency was made mandatory and unlike a rating where a corporate entity has the discretion of not accepting the rating, in case of IPO-
grading, a company is required to disclose all the grades obtained by it for its IPO in its prospectus and use them in advertisements for the public issue.
27 IPOs worth ̀ 6,765 crore shelved in CY13 on lack of investor interest
Weak equity markets and lack of investor appetite forced several companies to shelve their plans of launching Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in 2013, even
though these companies had received a go-ahead from the regulator. An approval from Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) to launch a public issue
is valid for one year. Companies that failed to launch their IPOs in 2013 include state-owned Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (`2,500 crore), financial consultancy firm
IFCI Factors (`750 crore), Vishwanath Sugar & Steel (`374 crore) and PME Power Solutions India (R350 crore), among 23 others. Other names that shelved
their IPO plans despite valid approvals include steel tube and pipe manufacturer UIC Udyog (`108 crore), TV Vision (`135 crore) and Delhi-based plastic and
packaging company Varahi (`110 cr).
Power Grid Corporation India Limited (
16
®
MUTUAL FUND
NEWS
IDFC MF introduces Fixed Term Plan Series -57
IDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of IDFC Fixed Term Plan Series -57, a close ended income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription on
Dec 20, 2013, and closes on Dec 26, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market
instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. There is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of the scheme will be realized.
HDFC MF introduces FMP 504D December 2013 (1)
HDFC Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of HDFC FMP 504D December 2013 (1), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for subscription
on Dec 20, 2013, and closes on Dec 26, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market
Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). There is no assurance that the investment objective of
the Scheme will be realized.
Birla Sun Life MF introduces Fixed Term Plan- Series JL (368 days)
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Birla Sun Life Fixed Term Plan - Series JL (368 days), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO
opens for subscription on Dec 20, 2013, and closes on Dec 26, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate income by investing in a portfolio of
fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme.
Axis MF introduces Fixed Term Plan - Series 46(371 days)
Axis Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Axis Fixed Term Plan - Series 46 (371 days), a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on Dec 20, 2013, and closes on Dec 23, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns through a portfolio of debt & money
market instruments that are maturing on or before the maturity of the respective plan(s).
Reliance MF introduces Fixed Horizon Fund-XXV-Series 10
Reliance Mutual Fund has launched the New Fund Offer (NFO) of Reliance Fixed Horizon Fund-XXV-Series 10, a Close Ended Income scheme. The NFO opens for
subscription on Dec 20, 2013, and closes on Dec 26, 2013. The investment objective of the scheme is to generate returns and growth of capital by investing in a
diversified portfolio of the following securities which are maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the object of limiting interest rate
volatility - Central and State Government securities and Other fixed income/ debt securities
L&T MF declares dividend under Short Term Opportunities Fund- Quarterly Dividend option
L&T (MF) has declared dividend under the Short Term Opportunities Fund- Quarterly Dividend option. The record date for dividend is December 24, 2013. The
quantum of dividend on the face value of ̀ 10 per unit will be ̀ 0.24 per unit. The primary investment objective of the Schemes is to generate returns for investors
with a short-term investment horizon by investing in fixed income securities of shorter term maturity.
17
®
NFOs WATCH
Fund Name NFO NFO Scheme Objective Fund Type Fund Class Fund Manager MinimumOpens on Closes on Amount
11-Dec-2013 24-Dec-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-ICICI Prudential
Capital Protection
Oriented-Sr IV Plan H
Rajat Chandak
/ Rahul
Goswami
/Aditya Pagaria
To seek to protect capital by investing a
portion of the portfolio in highest rated debt
securities and money market instruments and
also to provide capital appreciation by
investing the balance in equity and equity
related securities. The debt securities would
mature on or before the maturity of the
13-Dec-2013 27-Dec-2013 Close-Ended Growth `5000/-Reliance Close Ended
Equity Fund - Series B
(G)
Sailesh Raj
Bhan / Jahnvee
Shah
To provide capital appreciation to the
investors, this will be in line with their long
term savings goal, by investing in a
diversified portfolio of equity & equity
related instruments with small exposure to
fixed income securities. Although, the
objective of the Fund is to generate optimal
returns, the objective may or may not be
achieved.
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Pru. Exports and Other Services Fund - G 26.79 30-Nov-2005 155.04 16.99 35.30 41.30 14.28 13.01 1.54 0.37 0.50 57.25 31.66 2.84 8.26
Tata Ethical Fund - Plan A - Growth 83.27 24-May-1996 108.20 7.15 13.11 14.23 6.78 16.56 1.29 0.48 0.10 69.16 23.28 1.51 6.05
ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan - Growth 131.39 31-Oct-2002 3398.03 9.15 18.24 13.34 6.39 26.00 1.58 0.61 0.14 54.96 19.57 2.60 22.87
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 18.74 13-Jan-2006 281.76 16.64 12.27 11.48 8.03 8.24 1.96 0.67 0.15 13.12 70.48 7.97 8.43
Axis Equity Fund - Growth 13.40 05-Jan-2010 563.06 3.40 6.43 10.84 5.05 7.68 1.74 0.79 0.12 78.71 11.36 5.17 4.77
SBI Magnum Midcap Fund - Growth 30.19 29-Mar-2005 173.07 23.91 18.12 10.69 7.51 13.49 2.04 0.62 0.15 8.42 71.82 12.26 7.50
ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund - Growth 167.05 09-Jul-1998 379.06 5.12 13.47 9.08 5.98 19.98 1.87 0.79 0.11 84.88 5.28 -- 9.85
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 19/12/2013Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, the following 2 categories have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
SBI Magnum Balanced Fund - Growth 61.54 09-Oct-1995 398.12 8.04 9.10 9.28 5.26 15.64 1.35 0.64 0.10 33.29 33.15 5.9127.66
ICICI Prudential Balanced - Growth 60.81 03-Nov-1999 535.01 6.70 8.92 9.08 9.25 13.62 1.32 0.69 0.09 48.19 18.45 1.9731.39
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 68.06 11-Sep-2000 1099.18 11.10 10.04 6.97 6.81 15.54 1.39 0.68 N.A 25.45 41.97 3.7728.81
FT India Balanced Fund - Growth 57.65 10-Dec-1999 193.03 4.25 4.11 5.81 5.12 13.29 1.52 0.81 0.03 57.14 15.35 N.A27.51
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 103.80 08-Oct-1995 562.98 4.95 6.40 4.86 7.23 15.66 1.50 0.78 N.A 48.35 25.48 0.7225.46
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 361.06 10-Feb-1995 584.69 5.02 5.94 4.49 4.50 20.93 1.46 0.78 0.01 55.71 16.36 1.0726.86
UTI Balanced Fund - Growth 91.07 20-Jan-1995 869.48 5.51 7.45 4.24 3.18 15.95 1.34 0.72 N.A 54.41 17.75 2.1525.69
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Tata Dynamic Bond Fund - Plan A - G 18.48 03-Sep-2003 392.85 15.25 5.13 9.57 2.77 11.04 8.51 6.15 40.06 0.09 1628 8.41
ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 25.93 28-Mar-2002 303.39 24.2 16.31 11.86 9.52 9.07 8.69 8.46 2.49 0.46 6.79 6.65
Templeton India Income Oppor. Fund - G 14.04 11-Dec-2009 3742.69 8.45 7.04 12.81 5.32 8.76 9.26 8.79 17.22 0.08 843 10.99
Axis Banking Debt Fund - Growth 1140.04 08-Jun-2012 256.69 8.15 8.85 10.99 8.3 8.75 N.A 8.93 8.25 0.16 102 9.06
Templeton India Corporate Bond Oppor. Fund - G 12.26 07-Dec-2011 4871.08 11.77 8.69 14.43 5.69 8.74 N.A 10.51 18.03 0.07 971 11.2
Tata Income Plus Fund - Plan A - G 19.07 11-Nov-2002 174.49 15.53 4.77 9.32 -0.24 8.44 7.93 5.98 32.86 0.03 1595 8.97
Canara Robeco Dynamic Bond Fund - Reg - G 13.48 29-May-2009 302.41 23.08 3.6 7.79 -2.79 8.36 8.61 6.76 38.64 0.02 2316 9.03
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Sundaram Flexible Fund - ST - Growth 18.43 30-Dec-2004 750.64 7.17 7.73 9.03 6.72 7.83 8.34 7.05 8.47 0.05 80.00 8.84
Birla Sun Life Short Term Oppor. Fund - Reg - G 19.99 24-Apr-2003 1029.13 8.52 8.78 11.98 6.70 10.18 10.20 6.71 14.22 0.18 N.A 10.38
Tata Short Term Bond Fund - Plan A - G 23.01 08-Aug-2002 320.22 10.79 8.80 10.84 6.68 9.23 9.01 7.60 12.60 0.12 471.00 9.01
Sundaram Select Debt - S T A P - Reg - Appreciation 21.41 04-Sep-2002 305.37 7.34 7.35 10.01 6.65 10.03 11.09 6.97 13.71 0.19 391.00 9.55
JPMorgan India Short Term Income Fund - G 13.54 25-Mar-2010 1044.04 10.34 7.28 10.31 6.63 8.35 9.10 8.45 10.13 0.09 843.00 9.30
HDFC Short Term Opportunities Fund - G 13.45 25-Jun-2010 2389.25 9.98 8.79 13.66 6.55 8.48 9.23 8.87 13.34 0.08 485.00 9.74
Birla Sun Life Short Term Fund - DAP 14.11 06-Mar-2009 5191.74 8.44 7.53 12.63 6.35 8.57 9.49 7.44 11.68 0.08 N.A 9.60
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch AUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
DSP BlackRock Money Manager Fund - Reg - G 1696.98 31-Jul-2006 1686.27 7.48 7.86 9.62 9.60 9.16 8.82 7.42 4.88 0.33 104.00 N.A
DWS Ultra Short-Term Fund - Growth 20.23 21-Oct-2003 1842.88 8.67 8.93 9.33 9.46 9.19 9.17 7.18 4.33 0.38 40.00 9.55
Templeton India USB Fund - Retail - G 15.98 18-Dec-2007 4132.25 8.43 8.99 9.81 9.30 9.41 9.34 8.12 3.68 0.51 73.00 9.74
Tata Floater Fund - Plan A - Growth 1875.95 06-Sep-2005 2700.42 8.32 8.71 9.81 9.29 9.38 9.40 7.88 4.30 0.43 89.00 9.14
IDFC Ultra Short Term Fund - Reg - G 17.41 17-Jan-2006 1824.43 8.46 9.15 10.03 9.18 9.41 9.69 7.25 4.80 0.40 63.00 9.34
Birla Sun Life Ultra Short Term Fund - Ret - G 225.80 19-Apr-2002 543.50 7.76 8.21 10.02 9.17 9.34 9.26 7.22 4.52 0.40 N.A 9.64
UTI Treasury Advantage Fund - Reg - G 3152.19 12-Jul-1999 7890.95 7.72 8.26 10.06 9.13 9.20 9.07 8.27 3.25 0.52 106.00 N.A
Annualised
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Mr S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) during 'National Summit on Investment Opportunities in
Mutual Funds, Insurance and Debt Market' organised by Assocham at New Delhi.
Mr S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) with Mr Hamid Karzai,
President of Afghanistan during a Business Session organised by Assocham at Pune.
