SMC Global Monthly Report on Base Metals

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® SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON Base Metals Base Metals (April 2014) (April 2014)

Transcript of SMC Global Monthly Report on Base Metals

Page 1: SMC Global Monthly Report on Base Metals

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SPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ONSPECIAL MONTHLY REPORT ON

Base MetalsBase Metals(April 2014)(April 2014)

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April 2014

BASE METALS (28th February 2014 - 31st March 2014) (% change)PERFORMANCE

Source: Reuters & SMCSHFE LME MCX

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-8.19

-7.11

-0.89

-5.61

5.39

-5.21

-4.34

1.77

-3.14

8.02

-4.48

-1.87

-2.47

-0.76

-10.00 -8.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00

Copper

Zinc

Aluminium

Lead

Nickel

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HApril 2014

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Note:

These long term fundamental calls are for duration of three to four weeks time frame and do not confuse these with intraday calls.

MCX NICKEL (MAY)

Recommendation

Investors can take long term fundamental buy position in MCX Nickel (May) at

current levels for target of 1040 with stop loss of closing below 950.

MCX LEAD (MAY)

Recommendation

Investors can take long term fundamental buy position in MCX Lead (May) at

current levels for target of 131 with stop loss of closing below 122.

HOT PICKS FOR THE MONTH

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COPPER

Global Copper ReservesCopper prices traded in red in the month of March

2014 as fed tapering concerns and slowdown in Global copper reserves were estimated to be, as of

Chinese economy pushed the prices lower but strong December 31, 2012, 680 million tons, according to

China imports capped the downside. Overall copper preliminary estimates by U.S. Geological Survey,

traded in range of 391.80-446 in MCX in the month of Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2013.

March. Chinese slowdown concerns and fear of Chile, Australia, Peru, United States and Mexico have

interest rate hike by fed capped the upside in this the majority of copper reserves and collectively

complex. Industrial output, investment and retail account for 63.1% of world reserves

sales growth in China cooled more than forecast in the

first two months of 2014, and two manufacturing Vale back at work on Ontario nickel project

indexes declined in February. It is estimated that Vale SA's Canadian unit has resumed work on its Chinese economy grows 7.45 percent this year, the Copper Cliff Deep nickel project in the Sudbury basin weakest pace since 1990.and expects to complete a feasibility study by the end

China is the world's top consumer of refined copper, of the year.

accounting for about 40 percent of demand, but

growth has slowed since last year and a global surplus

Freeport Indonesia cuts output by about 60 of the metal is expected in 2014. More than half of

copper imports into China were to raise funds using pct

the metal as collateral over the past two years; hence U.S. mining giant Freeport McMoRan Copper and the market concern over the impact of Beijing's efforts Gold Inc has cut production at its Indonesian copper to control credit conditions and reins in shadow and gold mine by around 60 percent. Freeport and banking. But tighter credit markets or falling prices fellow U.S. miner Newmont Mining Corp have were unlikely to cause widespread problems in refused to pay an escalating export tax introduced on financing deals because they were structured around Jan. 12 as part of package of new mining rules aimed 90-180 day letters of credit, which means they are not at forcing miners to build smelters and process raw affected by short-term price moves. materials in Indonesia.

Chinese bond default shakes global copper Freeport says Chinese copper demand to market grow for over a decade

China's first domestic bond default has shaken the According to a Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold foundations of the copper market, stoking investor Inc “China's copper consumption will grow for "more worries that financing deals that have locked up vast than a decade" as demand from the world's top user quantities of copper could unravel. This anxiety has remains robust despite fears of an economic led to three days of heavy selling in copper, while slowdown” having little noticeable effect on other global financial

markets.European copper premiums edge higher in

The default on a bond payment by China's Chaori tight market

Solar signalled a reassessment of credit risk in a Consumer buying has helped copper premiums edge market where even high-yielding debt had been seen higher in the European spot market, with customers as carrying an implicit state guarantee. Recently solar stocking up before the second quarter as supplies panel maker and power company Baoding Tianwei remain tight following a disruption in shipments from Baobian Electric Co Ltd announced a second straight top producer Chile.year of net losses, leading to a suspension of its stock

and bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and

stoking fears that it, too, may default.

April 2014

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April 2014

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Refined Copper Consumption & Production World apparent usage grew by 3.5% in the

first eleven months of 2013World Bureau of Metal Statistics came out with the

report on metals showing that Copper marked a In the first eleven months of 2013 world apparent

surplus in the January-December 2013 period. The usage is estimated to have increased by 3.5%

copper market recorded a surplus of 387 kt in January (654,000 tonne) compared with that in the same

to December 2013 which follows a surplus of 250000 period of 2012. Chinese apparent demand in the first

tonnes in the whole of 2012. Reported stocks fell by eleven months increased by 6.5% from that in the

65000 tonnes during December and ended the month same period of 2012: a decline in net imports of

153000 tonnes lower than at the end of 2012. refined copper of 290,000 tonne (that occurred

mainly in the 1st half of the year) was more than offset World mine production in January to December 2013 by an increase in refined production of around was 18.32 million tonnes which was 7.2% higher than 650,000 tonne. in the same period in 2012. Global refined production

rose to 21.39 million tonnes up 5.3% compared with In the month of April 2014 copper prices may

the previous year with a significant increase recorded trade on volatile path as movement of

in China of 1.015 million tonnes more than various economic indicators such as PMI

compensating for the 147000 tonnes fall in Chilean data, homes sales and employment data

output and a 71000 tonnes drop in Indian production. along with fed tapering and Chinese demand

In December 2013, refined copper production was will give further direction to the copper

1.85 million tonnes prices.

Global consumption for January to December 2013

was 21.003 million tonnes and the comparable figure

for the whole of 2012 was 20.054 million tonnes.

Chinese apparent consumption in January to

December 2013 rose by 990000 tonnes to 9.83

million tonnes, which represented nearly 47% of

global demand. EU27 demand was, at 3.055 million

tonnes, 0.3% above the January to December 2012

total. In December 2013, refined copper consumption

was 1.835 million tonnes in 2012.

Range

Copper

MCX: Rs 385-435 per kg

LME: $6500-6800 per tonne

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April 2014

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Source Kitco metals

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NICKEL world to benefit from Indonesian NPI. This could

mean a structural shift in the global stainless steel Nickel prices shown positive gains in the month of

industry. March as it was the only base metal which ended

New investment projects continue to forge ahead with handsome gains. This was due to the ore ban by with the hope of reducing their average cost of Indonesia. After all, the January halt to flows of production by expanding output. nickel ore to China's giant nickel pig iron (NPI)

sector puts at risk an estimated 482,000 tonnes, or Continued excess supply appears likely to maintain around 25 percent of global supply. Overall nickel downward pressure on prices until producers cut traded in range of 903.10-997.90 in the month of back output or new projects are either delayed or March 2014. abandoned. Improvement in the global economy

should, of course, offer some support to the metal. Nickel prices are getting the support from the Considering NPI and new mine output, nickel speculation that a global surplus will shrink amid a supplies in the 2013-15 period are expected to be ban on exports of unprocessed ore in Indonesia and moderate compared to the previous three years. better Chinese data. Nickel prices can move in

range of 910-1040 in the month of April. The Demand for nickel remains robust. Stainless steel official Purchasing Managers' Index for accounts for two-thirds of demand for nickel. With manufacturing rose to 50.3 in March, the National economic growth set to accelerate gradually, Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of stainless steel production is likely to improve. Logistics and Purchasing stated recently in Beijing.

In particular, China's push towards higher value-

added products and improved energy efficiency of

output will support strong growth in demand for World nickel market –Surplus to deficitstainless steel with concomitant effect on nickel.

The world nickel market has been characterized by One area of new technology in which nickel plays a

oversupply for a prolonged period of time. With significant role is the liquefaction, storage and

production projected to trail consumption in 2015, transportation of LNG.

the market is likely to get into deficit for the first Japanese importers use 7 per cent nickel steel as the time in many years. new standard for cryogenic LNG storage tanks since

Although, around the world output at new mines this maximises fracture toughness in a low-

has been rising, expansion of Chinese nickel pig iron temperature environment. This offers a new source

(NPI) output has been the main driver of nickel of demand for nickel.

supply. Huge investment in new low-cost rotary kiln

electric furnaces in China has fundamentally

altered the nickel cost curve, driving prices below Producers ramping up productionthe point at which many existing nickel producers

Rather than trimming production, nickel producers break even. are still ramping up new projects, many of which

The rest of the global nickel industry, now caught up were given the green light six years ago when the in the long-term investments made in the wake of nickel price surged to $50,000 per tonne. Glencore, the 2007 price boom, is struggling to compete with for example, is currently bringing on line its the new reality of low-cost NPI output. 60,000-tonne per year Koniambo ferronickel

project in New Caledonia. The first line came on

stream last year, producing 1,400 tonnes of metal, Nickel and steel

with first ore to the second line due this quarter.The positive correlation between stainless steel

Vale is also lifting production at its Onca Puma production and nickel consumption is well known.

operations in Brazil after a one-year suspension of Although NPI has been used almost exclusively by

the new project due to furnace blow-outs. By the Chinese stainless steel industry, derived from

December the plant was running at around 62 low-grade nickel ore from Indonesia and the

percent of its nominal capacity of 25,000 tonnes per Philippines, new NPI smelters in Indonesia will

year (basis single furnace operation). Then there enable stainless steel producers elsewhere in the

April 2014

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Source Kitco metals

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are the high-pressure-acid-leach projects (HPAL), in 2011. Guidance for this year is 33,000-37,000

several of which have experienced technical delays tonnes, at or close to effective capacity. The Ramu

but most of which are now also accelerating run project in Papua New Guinea uses the same

rates. First Quantum's Ravensthorpe mine production template as Ravensthorpe, producing a

produced 29,000 tonnes of nickel in hydroxide last mixed hydroxide that requires further refining.

year, the best performance since operations began

In the month of April 2014 Nickel trend will

depend on the stainless steel sector demand

along with availability of Nickel ore.

Movement of local currency is likely to

influence its prices on domestic bourses.

Range

Nickel

MCX: Rs 910-1000 per kg

LME: $15400-16400 per tonne

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LEAD

Lead prices ended in red zone in the month of March 2014.Overall its prices moved in range of 121.30-133.90 in MCX. Growing demand from replacement battery sector supported the prices along with better China PMI figures. But there are concerns about Lead demand from top consumer China as the country grapples with slow growth and credit problems. Investors fear that credit upheaval in China could unwind financing deals that use the metal as collateral. The concerns intensified following the first domestic bond default by a Chinese company earlier last month. Overall it can move in range of 118-132 in the month of April 2014.

ILZSG latest Lead estimates

�Global lead mine production increased by 6.4 percent compared to 2012 mainly as a result of higher output in China and Australia, where Ivernia's Paroo Station (formerly Magellan) mine reopened in March.

�A rise in world output of refined lead metal of 3.7 percent was primarily a consequence of higher production in China, Italy, Peru and the United States. Production from secondary (recycled) raw materials accounted for 54.7 percent of total output compared to 55.6 percent in 2012.

�Overall global demand for refined lead metal increased by 4.5 percent. This was principally driven by rises in usage of 16 percent in the United States, 4.9 percent in China 3.5 percent in Europe and 11.5 percent in the republic of Korea that more than offset contractions in India, Japan and Mexico.

�Chinese imports of lead contained in lead concentrates declined by 18 percent to 822kt from the record levels attained in 2012.

Lead demand Scenario

On the demand side, in countries such as China where new car sales have expanded at more than 10 per cent in recent years, demand for lead will be driven by both the continuing expansion in automobile sales as well as the steadily increasing demand for replacement batteries. It is this dynamic that supports a bullish forecast for lead demand among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

countries, anticipating growth in demand of 6 per cent for these countries. Importantly, Chinese demand for lead benefits from rapid expansion in the use of e-bikes in China and neighboring countries. The e-bike batteries typically have a shorter life prior to renewal, raising the volume of replacement demand. Additional demand growth is expected to arise from power storage for the rapidly expanding network of 3G and 4G telecom masts.

As for India, demand for lead acid batteries is seen rising by 10-12 per cent a year as the country embraces solar power and e-bikes. However, domestic supplies are unlikely to expand as rapidly. So, demand may be rationed.

The US demand for lead acid batteries has grown steadily over the past three years at about 2 per cent a year. Within this overall demand, original equipment demand has expanded rapidly in line with the growth in new vehicle sales while growth in demand for replacement equipment (which makes up about 90 per cent of total battery demand) has grown more slowly. Demand could rise faster with fundamental changes to both recycling and new battery technology.

Global vehicle sales

Global vehicle sales climbed to record highs in February, with gains accelerating to 7% y/y alongside a double-digit increase in Asia and an ongoing recovery in Western Europe. Car sales in Western Europe climbed above a year earlier for the sixth consecutive month, with gains in every major market, except France. Spain led the way, with sales jumping 18% above a year earlier due to the recent renewal of the vehicle scraping program.

Auto Production Buoys Economic Activity

Global vehicle production has climbed to record highs in early 2014, even as severe winter weather dampened output in North America. However, vehicle assemblies began to improve in the United States last month, and output is expected to strengthen throughout North America as automakers increase production in the second quarter. In fact, assemblies are expected to continue ramping up across the globe, providing a welcome boost to global economic activity. Output gains will continue to be strongest in Asia, partly due to capacity expansion, and will help calm financial market fears of an economic slowdown in China.

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April 2014

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Production/Consumption(In 000 Tonnes) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mine Production 11201 11881 11623 12390 12666 13149 13286

YoY % 6.1 -2.2 6.6 2.2 3.8 1.0

Metal Production 11345 11774 11281 12896 13080 12526 13138

YoY % 3.8 -4.2 14.3 1.4 -4.2 4.9

Metal usage 11229 11574 10915 12649 12706 12290 13198

YoY % 3.1 -5.7 15.9 0.5 -3.3 7.4

Demand-Supply balance 116 200 366 247 374 236 -60

Lead demand exceeds supply in 2013

Lead demand-supply scenario

Source-ILZSG

April 2014

China Lead acid battery

China's lead-acid battery industry basically has formed the combination of large-scale and small enterprises and had manufacturing system with certain scales. With the sustainable rapid growth of China's economy, basic industries such as automobile, motorcycle, moped scooter, communication, information and electric power witness very rapid development. And the high-speed growth of these industries brought lead-acid battery industry into the sustained and vigorous growth trend, so there was an increasingly demand for lead-acid batteries. In 2013, the market scale of China's lead-acid batteries registered CNY 150.8 billion, up 24% year-on-year.

Refined Lead consumption 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change 2013-2012

Europe 1503 1642 1631 1622 1678 56 3.50%

United States 1397 1441 1538 1499 1739 240 16.00%

China 3925 4171 4588 4245 4452 207 4.90%

India 415 433 445 521 493 -28 -5.40%

Japan 189 224 236 273 258 -15 -5.50%

Korea, Rep. 360 385 420 428 478 49 11.50%

Other Countries 1456 1520 1586 1566 1518 -48 -3.10%

World Total 9245 9815 10444 10154 10615 461 4.50%

China as a % of total 42.5 42.5 43.9 41.8 41.9

Lead consumption grew by 4.5% in 2013 driven by Chinese and US demand

Source-ILZSG

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Lead and Zinc spread

Source: Reuters

Analysis

Lead and Zinc spread continued to widen in the month of March from nearly 0 to above 7 as lead fell at slower pace than zinc. This spread can move in range of 3 to7 in April 2014.

April 2014

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ZINC

Zinc prices plummeted lower in the month of March

as rising greenback and credit concerns in china

coupled with cancellation of financing deals kept the

prices downbeat. Overall zinc prices moved in range

of 121.90-131 in MCX .In the month of April renewed

galvanizing demand can give support to the prices

but slow Chinese growth concerns can cap the

upside. Overall it can move in range of 115-126

in the month of April 2014.

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ILSG Zinc forecast

Global demand for refined zinc metal exceeded supply

by 2,000 mt in the first 10 months of 2013. 7% year-

on-year increase in global usage of refined zinc metal

to 10.94 million mt for January-October 2013 "was

primarily influenced by a rise in Chinese apparent

demand of 12.9% as well as increases in India,

Thailand, Turkey and the United States adding that in

Europe, demand remained at the same level as in 2012.

Production/Consumption(In 000 tonnes) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mine Production 3657 3812 3810 4161 4636 4994 5313

YoY % 4.2 -0.1 9.2 11.4 7.7 6.4

Metal Production 8413 9230 9242 9850 10598 10212 10593

YoY % 9.7 0.1 6.6 7.6 -3.6 3.7

Metal usage 8421 9222 9242 9815 10444 10154 10615

YoY % 9.5 0.2 6.2 6.4 -2.8 4.5

Demand-Supply balance -8 8 0 35 154 58 -22

Zinc demand exceeds supply in 2013

Zinc demand-supply scenario

Source-ILZSG

Refined Zinc consumption 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Change 2013-2012

Europe 1939 2488 2513 2355 2366 11 0.5%

United States 912 891 928 904 946 41 4.6%

China 4659 5403 5458 5233 5950 717 13.7%

India 539 579 513 586 658 72 12.2%

Japan 433 516 501 479 503 23 4.9%

Korea, Rep. 493 538 545 561 577 16 2.9%

Other Countries 1939 2233 2247 2172 2200 28 1.3%

World Total 10915 12649 12706 12290 13198 909 7.4%

China as a % of total 42.7 42.7 43.0 42.6 45.1

Zinc consumption grew by 7.4% in 2013 driven by Chinese and Indian demand

Source-ILZSG

(in 000 tonnes)

Zinc Mining closure to support the prices

Zinc mines, with an estimated 1.3MT of production

(~10% of CY13 consumption), are expected to get

depleted over the next two-to-three years, leading to

a tight supply situation in the refined zinc market

Mining companies are shutting down key zinc-

output facilities in Canada and Australia, because

reserves in those mines have largely been depleted.

Glencore Xstrata PLC's Brunswick and Perseverance

mines in eastern Canada, which had combined

capacity of 400,000 tons of zinc, closed in 2013. And

output from MMG Ltd. Century mine in Australia's

April 2014

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Range

Lead

MCX: Rs 118-132 per kg

LME: $1940-2180 per tonne

Zinc

MCX: Rs 115-126 per kg

LME: $1920-2100 per tonne

Queensland State is slowing as the world's third-

biggest open-pit zinc mine is slated for closure by

2016.

New mining projects for zinc aren't as large as those

that recently closed. Glencore officials have said

they expect its new Perkoa mine in Burkina Faso to

produce 90,000 tons of zinc next year. Output at

Hudbay Minerals' Lalor Lake mine in Manitoba

province, Canada, is forecast at 40,000 tons in 2014.

Mine Company Production 000' tonne Closure year Country/region

Brunswick Glencore Xstrata 265 2013 Canada

Perseverance Glencore Xstrata 135 2013 Canada

Lisheen Vedanta 175 2014 Ireland

Century MMG 488 2015 Australia

Skorpion Vedanta 171 2016 Namibia

Black Mountain Vedanta 37 2016 Namibia

Total 1271

Zinc mines planned for closure leading to 1.3 MT decline in global supply

Source-ILZSG

Indian Zinc Scenario

The domestic zinc industry has recently transitioned

into a state of self-sufficiency on account of

expansions in the mining and smelting operations,

respective scenario in lead still remains a concern as

the demand far exceeds domestic production of the

metal, though there have been recent increases in

capacity and production.

All major zinc ore mines in India viz. Rampura

Agucha, Rajpura Dariba and Zawar mines are

located in the state of Rajasthan and all of these are

under the control of Hindustan Zinc.

Indian Government expects zinc demand to exceed

8.8 lakh tonne by 2016-17

As per Government of India report of working group

on mineral exploration and development for 12th

Five Year plan, the Zinc demand in India is expected

to remain strong in the coming years on account of

growth in the key zinc consuming industries like

infrastructure, realty and manufacturing. Moreover

due to the growth in automobile and consumer

durables industry would also further aid the

increase in consumption of zinc

Demand for zinc in India is expecting from 6,00,000

lakh tonne in 2012-13 to 8,80,000 tonne in 2016-

17.Considering continuous supply of 20,000tonne

from secondary route and 50,000 tonne from imports

in every year about 9 lakh tonne production are

projected with marginal increase from 2012-13 to

2015-16. This production projections are given is in

correlation with gradual reduction of exports with

reference to domestic consumption. The current zinc

production capacity of HZL is 9,17,000 tonnes.

In April 2014, Zinc and Lead prices will

depend upon automobile, construction and

infrastructure demand. Moreover situation of

cancelled warrants along with stock position

will impact the prices.

April 2014

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Source Kitco metals

Source Kitco metals

April 2014

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ALUMINUM making primary aluminium to increase by 12.6%

year-on-year to 34.1 million tpy in 2014 and actual White metal Aluminum moved on extremely output to rise by 13.4% from a year ago to 28.3 volatile path in month of March on mixed million tonnes.fundamentals. Feeble spot demand and slowdown

in China kept the prices under selling pressure.

Overall it moved in range of 105.10-110.20. Aluminium swings from surplus to deficit

In the month of April its prices may remain After seven-eight years of acute oversupply, the

sideways with some short covering can be seen at world aluminium market is now undergoing a

lower levels as demand from packaging, aerospace, structural change from surplus to deficit. An

automobiles, construction and power, amongst extended period of overcapacity has been a feature

other sectors demand will give further direction. of the world aluminium market for some time now.

No doubt, producers in the western world have cut Aluminum prices can hover in range of 102-

back output but their efforts have been largely 114 in the month of April. Major Aluminum

neutralised by new capacity additions in China and producer Rusal expects the Aluminum premiums

West Asia. The result has been sustained downward might rise further by 50% and estimates that the

pressure on aluminium prices. No wonder, LME further new supply of aluminum which would

prices have continued to remain in a narrow range increase in the wake of new LME warehouse rules

of $1,700-1,900 a tonne. With long waiting time or might move get shifted off exchange there by

queue at LME warehouses, producers were creating supply tightness in the commodity.

compensated, albeit partially, by the rise in Chinese aluminium producers have the option of

aluminium premiums; but that too is beginning to replacing lost Indonesian bauxite with the

decline with the LME proposing new rules of intermediate product alumina.

warehousing and delivery scheduled to take effect

from April 1, 2014. Rusal sees European aluminium premiums

With production trailing consumption, stocks are staying high in 2014beginning to be drawn down, and market balances

Physical prices of aluminium in Europe will stay at are tightening. There is a swing in ex-China balance

high levels this year as financing deals squeeze the to deficit this year (estimated at 1.3 million tonnes).

availability of metal on the spot market. Premiums Yet, excess capacity in China continues to weigh on

in Europe, and the United States, had hit record the market.

highs, highlighting the London Metal Exchange's The world aluminium market is struggling to come (LME) limited ability to cool a market where low to terms with, on the one hand, a structural shift interest rates whet appetites for locking up from surplus to deficit exceeding one million tonnes aluminium as an investment.expected this year and the next; and on the other,

freeing up of up to 1.4 million tonnes of the metal China Aluminium Semis Exports to Climb over the next two years following changes to LME in 2014 on Domestic Cost Advantage warehouse rules. According to industry experts, China's aluminium product exports are expected to planned aluminium production cuts have soared climb in 2014 as semis producers are gaining a cost since the announcement of the new LME advantage from more depressed domestic prices of warehousing policy which will eventually reduce the metal. Chinese exports of aluminium plates and smelter profits via lower physical premiums. strips may rise by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.7 million Production cuts ex-China have totalled close to 2.4 tonnes for the whole year. Exports of aluminium million tonnes a year of capacity since the beginning foils may jump by 19.2% to 900,000 tonnes while of 2012, leading to a sharp change in the market those of the metal extrusions may increase by 14.4% balance from surplus to deficit. to 700,000 tonnes. China's production capacity for

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April 2014

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Demand prospects for Aluminum

In April 2014 aluminum prices are expected From the demand side, global demand growth is

to trade on sideways with upside path as expected to be strong in the next two years (4-5 per

demand from auto and construction sector cent) thanks to continued growth in BRIC countries

is likely to support the prices while and a rebound in G3 demand. Leading indicators

oversupply concerns can cap the upside.and improvement in global manufacturing

confidence support the expectation. The US is

expected to see demand growth of about 3 per cent

per annum, while Europe could be something of a

wild card because with fiscal austerity less of an

issue now, it is possible that European demand may

bounce if households and corporates begin to

replace durable goods, such as vehicles, and plant

and machinery. The US Fed tapering and

anticipated dollar firmness is likely to pressure

metal prices.

Range

Aluminum

MCX: Rs 102-114 per kg

LME: $1680-1860 per tonne

Source Kitco metals

April 2014

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Some Key US Economic indicator charts

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April 2014

US Durable goods orders

Source: Reuters

US Consumer confidence

Source: Reuters

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PMI Data

Source: Reuters

Page 19: SMC Global Monthly Report on Base Metals

SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus.

Disclaimer:

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April 2014