Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022 Sample Chapter

n-tech Research Report

Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022

Issue date: March 2015 Code: Nano-819

n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058

Phone: 804-938-0030

Email: [email protected]


Phone: 804-938-0030

Email: [email protected] Web: www.ntechresearch.com

Page | 1

Smart Surfaces as an Emerging Opportunity: A Market Assessment

In this report, n-tech Research identifies the emerging market opportunities for smart surfaces across a wide range of applications. Smart surfaces are capable of rearranging their morphology or composition in response to changes of the ambient environment. We expect smart surfaces to capitalize on the recent commercial successes of smart coatings and note both the extensive R&D in the field of smart surfaces and the beginnings of commercialization.

The report examines the use of metal oxides, polymers and biomaterials to create smart surfaces, as well as the use of novel patterning technologies including those derived from nanomanufacturing. We provide a roadmap and eight-year forecast (in volume and value terms) for smart surfaces in five important end-user sectors: energy, electronics, healthcare, automotive and aerospace, and the military. For each sector, we provide breakouts by materials type. In addition, the report also assesses the R&D and marketing strategies of the leading firms that are active in the commercialization of smart coatings.

n-tech Research’ market assessment of the smart coatings market is based both on the latest results from the lab and current marketing trends. For example, we examine how smart surfaces will play out in the Internet-of-Things and how recent changes in the energy sector will impact the prospects for smart surfaces. The report also examines how smart surfaces will find their place in smart environments where they must compete with embedded sensors and smart coatings.

The industry analysis in this report builds on n-tech Research extensive program on the markets for smart coatings. n-tech Research has been providing coverage in the smart coatings space for five years.


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

E.1 Smart Surfaces Creating Opportunities

E.1.1 Types of Smart Surfaces and their Commercialization

E.2 Opportunities for Smart Surfaces in the Construction Sector

E.2.1 Smart Windows

E.2.2 Self-Cleaning Surfaces

E.2.3 Self-Healing Surfaces

E.2.4 Solar Panels and Smart Surfaces

E.3 Opportunities for Smart Surfaces in the Energy Sector

E.4 Opportunities for Smart Surfaces in the Transportation Sector

E.4.1 Self-Healing Smart Surfaces for Vehicles

E.4.2 Smart Glass in Transportation

E.4.3 Self-Coloring Interiors

E.4.4 Anti-Fouling Surfaces

E.5 Smart Surfaces in Medical and Healthcare Markets

E.6 Smart Surfaces for Electronics Markets

E.7 Barriers to Growth in the Smart Surface Market

E.8 Summary of Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surface Markets

Chapter One Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report

1.1.1 Smart Cars: Where Smart Surfaces Begin

1.1.2 Smart Surfaces: Essential to the Internet-of-Things?

1.1.3 Smart Medical Surfaces

1.1.4 Other

1.2 Objective and Scope of Report

1.3 Methodology of Report

1.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

1.4 Plan of Report


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 3

Chapter Two: Technologies and Manufacturing for Smart Surfaces

2.1 Smart Surfaces: Technology and Types

2.1.1 Smart Bandages as an Example

2.2 Sensors and Surfaces

2.2.1 Evolution of Low-Cost Sensors and the Cost Factor

2.2.2 Types of Sensors for Surfaces

2.3 Smart Materials for Smart Surfaces

2.3.1 Self-Healing Materials

2.3.2 Self-Cleaning Materials

2.3.3 Self-Assembling Materials

2.4 Relationship of Smart Surfaces to Smart Coatings

2.5 Manufacturing Innovations

2.5.1 Optical Lithography

2.5.2 Functional Printing

2.5.3 Nanomanufacturing Processes

2.5.4 Layer-by-Layer Self-Assembly

2.6 Key Points Made in this Chapter

Chapter Three: Current and Future Markets for Smart Surfaces in the Construction Industry

3.1 Smart Surface Opportunities in Construction

3.2 Smart Coatings for Self-Dimming Windows Paving the Way

3.2.1 Key Trends Shaping Opportunities in the Self-Tinting Glass Market

3.2.2 Passive Self-Tinting Windows: Thermochromic and Photochromic Coatings

3.2.3 Active Self-Dimming Windows: Electrochromic, SPD and PDLC

3.2.4 How Much Smartness Does a Self-Dimming Window Require: The Need for Smart Surfaces

3.3 Opportunities for Self-Cleaning Surfaces in Buildings

3.3.1 Hydrophobic Surfaces versus Hydrophilic Surfaces

3.3.2 Improvements to Self-Cleaning Surfaces Using More Complex Material Systems

3.3.3 Adding Functionality to Self-Cleaning Surfaces

3.4 Self-Healing Surfaces in Construction


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 4

3.4.1 Emerging Self-Healing Technologies

3.4.2 Self-Healing Concrete

3.4.3 The Future of Self-Healing Surfaces in Construction

3.5 Smart Solar Surfaces

3.5.1 Monolithically Integrated BIPV Considered as a Smart Surface

3.5.2 Self-Cleaning Solar Surfaces

3.5.3 Solar for Powering Smart Windows

3.6 Smart Floors

3.6.1 Air Purification in Smart Floors

3.6.2 Smart Floors That Track

3.7 Smarter Walls

3.8 Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surfaces in the Construction Sector

3.8.1 Impact of the Worldwide Construction Market

3.9 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Four: Current and Future Markets for Smart Surfaces in Energy Generation

4.1 The Future of Energy and its Impact on Smart Surfaces

4.2 Smart Surfaces in Solar Farms

4.3 Smart Surfaces for Wind Turbines

4.3.1 Existing Products

4.3.2 Future Products

4.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surfaces in the Energy Generation Sector


Chapter Five: Current and Future Markets for Smart Surfaces in Transportation

5.1 Trains and Boats and Planes

5.1.1 Functional Advantages of Smart Surfaces in Transportation

5.1.2 Aesthetic Advantages of Smart Surfaces in Smart Surfaces

5.2 Self-Healing Surfaces in the Automotive Industry

5.2.1 Organizations to Watch in Automotive Self-Healing Surface Markets


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 5

5.2.2 Future Developments in Self-Healing Surfaces for the Automotive Market

5.2.3 Self-Healing Surfaces for Other Transportation Markets

5.3 Smart Glass Surfaces in the Transportation Market

5.3.1 Four Key Factors Promoting the Use of Smart Glass in the Automotive Sector

5.3.2 Self-Tinting Glass in the Automotive Sector

5.3.3 PDLC Privacy Glass in the Automotive Sector

5.3.4 Smart Mirrors

5.3.5 Self-Cleaning Glass

5.3.6 Self-Healing Glass in Automotive Markets

5.3.7 Embedded Intelligence in Smart Auto Glass Surfaces

5.3.8 Six Companies Shaping the Smart Auto Glass Business

5.4 Embedding Devices in Smart Surfaces in the Automotive Industry

5.5 Color-Changing Surfaces for Cars and Planes

5.6 Smart Antifouling, Anticorrosion and Antimicrobial Surfaces for Cars and Marine Markets

5.6.1 Current Chemistries for Antifouling Surfaces

5.6.2 Elimination of Copper in Anti-Fouling Surfaces

5.6.3 Antifouling Surfaces with On-demand Features for Commercial Ships

5.6.4 Smart Sensors for Marine Applications yet to gain Significant Traction

5.6.5 Other Developments in Smart Anticorrosive Surfaces

5.7 De-icing Coatings

5.8 Other Developments in Smart Surfaces for Transportation

5.8.1 Smart Tires

5.8.2 Self-Stratifying Coatings

5.8.3 Self-Assembled Monolayers

5.9 Eight-Year Forecast of Smart Surfaces in Transportation


Chapter Six: Smart Surfaces in the Healthcare Industry

6.1 Possible Uses for Smart Surfaces in Healthcare

6.2 Biocompatability


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 6

6.3 Antimicrobial Smart Surfaces

6.3.1 Smart Antimicrobial Surfaces Getting Smarter

6.3.2 The Use of Silver in Smart Antimicrobials

6.4 Drug Delivery Surfaces

6.4.1 Examples of R&D in Smart Drug Delivery Surfaces

6.5 Other Potential Applications for Smart Surfaces in Medicine and Healthcare

6.5.1 Cell Culture

6.5.2 Surfaces, Biosensors and Diagnostics

6.5.3 Bioseparation and Miniaturized Microfluidics

6.6 Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surfaces in the Medical Sector


Chapter Seven: Smart Surfaces in the Electronics Market

7.1 Smart Surfaces, Fashion Electronics and the Internet-of-Things

7.1.1 The IoT and Smart Surfaces

7.1.2 Smart Surfaces for Fashion Electronics

7.2 Smart Surfaces as Human Computer Interfaces

7.3 Large-Area Electronics and the Manufacture of Smart Electronics Surfaces

7.3.1 Manufacturing Smart Electronic Surfaces

7.3.2 Flexible and Curved Surfaces and Smart Electronics

7.4 Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surfaces in the Electronics Sector


Chapter Eight: A Coda on Smart Surfaces in Military and Domestic Security Markets

8.1 Smart Surfaces in Military and Domestic Security

8.2 Smart Surfaces for Camouflage

8.3 Radar Absorbent Materials

8.4 Anticorrosion and Anti-Fouling

8.5 Eight-Year Forecasts of Smart Surfaces in the Medical Sector



Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 7

Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report

About the Author

List of Exhibits

Exhibit E-1: Summary of Worldwide Smart Surfaces Market by Revenues ($ Millions)

Exhibit 2-1: Advantages of Printing for Fabricating Low-Cost Sensors for Smart Surfaces

Exhibit 3-1: Customer Choice Possibilities of Smart Coatings for Smart Windows

Exhibit 3-2: Major Research Initiatives and Trends in Self-Healing Surface Technology

Exhibit 3-3: Smart Wall Functionality and Markets

Exhibit 3-4: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Construction Industry

Exhibit 4-1: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Energy Sector

Exhibit 5-1: Factors Shaping Demand for Smart Glass in the Automotive Sector

Exhibit 5-2: Firms to Watch in the Smart Windows Market

Exhibit 5-3: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Transportation Sector

Exhibit 6-1: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Medical Sector

Exhibit 7-1: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Electronics Sector

Exhibit 8-1: Worldwide Market for Smart Surfaces in the Military and Domestic Security Sector

RELATED REPORTS

Smart Coatings Markets 2015-2022

Worldwide Smart Coatings Markets: 2013-2020

Smart Windows Materials Markets: 2014-2021

Smart Windows Markets: 2014-2021


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 8

Chapter One Introduction

1.1 Background to this Report

n-tech Research believes an emerging opportunity for advanced materials, sensors firms and others is presented by so-called smart surfaces. Smart surfaces are most broadly defined as any material surfaces that re-arrange their morphology or composition—and self-enhance their functionality—in response to changes in the ambient environment.

As this rather abstract definition suggests, there are numerous applications and end-user sectors to which smart surface technology can be applied. However, n-tech Research believes that three in particular stand out in terms of their market potential: the automotive sector, the budding Internet-of-Things business, and healthcare.

Each has its own structure and market dynamic. As a sign of the times we note that Microsoft in a recent promotional video showing where it expects technology to evolve to in the medium-term future, specifically mentions smart surfaces.

1.1.1 Smart Cars: Where Smart Surfaces Begin

The dominant meme in the automotive space right now is “intelligence,” at every level. Automotive surfaces—inside and outside—are now much talked about as a location where this intelligence will reside. And automotive is really the main place right now where smart surface commercialization is highly visible.

Johnson Controls, one of the world’s largest suppliers of vehicle interiors, has adopted smart automotive surfaces as an important part of its strategy and has reportedly poured very large sums of money into R&D in this area. Its current focus seems to be on smart surface technology that can change the color of a car’s interior. But other tier-one companies are also active in this space:

n-tech Research particularly notes the presence of some big firms from the world of advanced materials. Bayer, for example, has done work on self-healing surfaces for the automotive sector using polyurethanes. BASF has also made an investment in SLIPS Technologies, a firm with a self-healing/self-cleaning technology that has applications in the auto segment.

The big car firms are there too. Volkswagen funds work at the Fraunhofer Institutes on smart surfaces and GM has done its own R&D on shape memory materials for auto applications.

1.1.2 Smart Surfaces: Essential to the Internet-of-Things?

As n-tech Research sees things, the center of gravity of smart surface commercialization


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 9

is going to be on auto and—as the main body of this report indicates—the examples given above are only part of the story. However, smart surfaces in the automotive space must be seen in the context of two important facts.

First, all of the smart surface technologies that are emerging in the automotive sector are highly transferable to many other markets.

Second, the lead times in the auto industry are very long.

These two items in combination suggest that firms that are currently focused on smart auto surfaces may start to look around for other markets for their smart surfaces quite quickly. In this context, n-tech Research firmly believes that smart surfaces have a high revenue potential in what is currently being touted as the Internet-of-Things business.

This may not be all that obvious at present. “Smart surfaces,” is not a term that can be found much in the IoT literature, for example. However, what one does find are hints that there is a fit between the philosophy of IoT as currently conceived and what smart surfaces can achieve. For example, accounts of how the IoT will evolve often mention how the walls or floors of buildings will respond to the needs and moods of people providing appropriate light, heat or even shape.

The assumption in the IoT world right now is that the technology underpinning this high level of functionality in surfaces will be based on embedded electronic devices. Embedding sensors and MPUs is a mature technology and there seems little reason to think that anyone will look for alternatives.

But n-tech Research is not so sure. As we discuss more fully later in this report there are good reasons to believe that in selected cases smart surfaces could (1) meet the expectations for the IoT at lower costs than could be achieved with embedded electronics or (2) add functionality to the IoT that is not currently being contemplated or could easily be achieved with embedded electronics.

The use of smart surfaces in the context of IoT seems to be a wide open frontier with both the good consequences of all such environments and the bad; lots of apparent opportunities in this space for new entrants, but enormous risks.

n-tech Research anticipates that we will start to see some activity in this space in the 2015-2016 timeframe and—while it is difficult to be certain about the players—broad-based firms such as LG and Samsung, that have ties to both the materials community and the electronics world seem likely to become involved, and the intersection of the smart surfaces and IoT may also be a profitable niche for start-ups.


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 10

1.1.3 Smart Medical Surfaces

Even though the time frames in the medical space can sometimes be longer than those in the automotive, n-tech Research also sees important potential for smart surfaces in the medical space.

Like IoT, this is another area of the emerging smart surfaces business that can expect to benefit from megatrends. More specifically, for decades now there has been a steady march to better and better medical technology in both developing and developed nations. In addition, in n-tech Research' opinion, the aging populations of the developed world present a significant market opportunity for new medical technologies of all kinds. The bottom line here is that there is likely to be money for R&D and a relatively smooth path to early users.

Smart coatings have already penetrated this segment of the market in a number of areas and may or may not be considered part of the smart surfaces story. But in any case, n-tech Research expects smart surfaces considered in a broad sense to generate revenues from the medical sector beginning immediately:

The areas where n-tech Research is seeing specific opportunities for complex smart surfaces is in drug delivery systems where big pharma is always on the lookout for better/more profitable ways of doing things.

Another area for smart surface firms to explore are smart antimicrobials. Here we believe that smart surfaces enabling a shift from better time-release mechanisms to actual enhanced/more effective antimicrobial action through the use of (for example) self-assembling and hydrophilic technology.

Yet another market possibility that existing surfaces in food packaging, textiles and homes can be rendered smart and then equipped with antimicrobial effects.

Other longer-term possibilities for smart surfaces include polymer spinal implants, surfaces that sterilize based on exposure to light, and smart coatings for catheters.

Healthcare and related markets are likely to be open to high value-added products, which is how most vendors would want to position smart surfaces. We also note that there is—in the most literal sense—a natural fit between smart surfaces and the medical/healthcare sector. This is because so many smart surfaces derive their inspiration from nature.

The downside is that like the automotive sector, timeframes can be extended; in this case because of the regulatory and market need for extensive product testing in the medical sector.


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 11

1.1.4 Other

As we see things, the market places mentioned above are places to start and smart surface products will quickly spin out of these areas into others. A few things to think about here:

Many of the smart-surface applications in the automotive market are directly transferrable to other transportation markets in trains, boats, planes and the military. These markets already see some smart surface activity and may be less price sensitive than is the case with proposed smart surface development in the car market. However, in terms of the availability of long-term revenues the car industry is the place for makers of smart surfaces to be.

There are many other areas that will be able to quickly adapt smart surface technologies developed for the three key early markets. There is, for example, a whole book published on using smart surfaces in building and architecture. The energy sector also appears to have significant potential

Since the functionality of smart surfaces is likely to depend heavily on

patterning/texturing, n-tech Research believes that smart surfaces may be able to revive the fortunes of nanomanufacturing technologies, which never became the successes that were envisioned ten to 15 years ago.

1.2 Objective and Scope of Report

In this report, n-tech Research identifies the emerging market opportunities for smart surfaces across a wide range of applications. The report examines the use of metal oxides, polymers and biomaterials to create smart surfaces, as well as the use of novel patterning technologies including those derived from nanomanufacturing.

The applications that we are principally concerned with in this report are automotive and aerospace, military, energy and medicine. We also take a look at some of the more general functionalities of smart surfaces such as self-healing, self-cleaning, etc.

Finally, we provide a roadmap and eight-year forecast (in volume and value terms) for smart surfaces and for each sector covered, where possible, we provide breakouts by materials type. In addition, the report also assesses the R&D and marketing strategies of the leading firms that are active in the commercialization of smart coatings. The report also examines how smart surfaces will find their place in smart environments where they must compete with embedded sensors and smart coatings.

Although we discuss in various places in this report, exactly what the term “smart surface” means, we are fairly liberal in how we define it for the purposes of this report, which seems appropriate to the stage of development that smart surfaces find themselves in.


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 12

1.3 Methodology of Report

n-tech Research’ market assessment of the emerging smart surface market is based both on (1) the latest results from the lab and (2) current marketing trends. For example, we examine how smart surfaces will play out in the Internet-of-Things (IoT) and how recent changes in the energy sector will impact the prospects for smart surfaces.

The industry analysis in this report builds on n-tech Research extensive program on the markets for smart coatings, which is highly relevant, for obvious reasons, to smart surfaces opportunities. n-tech Research has been providing coverage in the smart coatings space for five years.

Secondary research involved a variety of sources, such as information available on the World Wide Web, technical journals, press releases, trade press articles, government databases, company literature, and SEC filings and used to further elucidate major trends in the smart coatings market. In addition, some of the data for this report comes from the previous n-tech Research report "Smart Coatings Markets—2015".

1.3.1 Forecasting Methodology

The basic approach taken here to forecasting is similar to other n-tech Research reports. We identify and quantify the underlying addressable markets, the penetration of various smart coating technologies in those markets, and from that we produce a sales forecast in volume terms—typically, in this report, in thousands of square meters.

Types of products forecast: The term “smart surfaces” can cover many different products and technologies. In this report, we have focused on applications where we see real opportunities, noting that there may be others that may fit the “smart surface” definition, but don’t quite count as “opportunities. Smart electrochromic mirrors are an example in this case.

There are no precise definitions for what constitutes “smart” in “smart surfaces.” However, as far as possible we have tried to reflect in our forecasts leading edge products. The reason for this is that the term “smart” is now thrown around easily and if we used the loosest definition of “smart” we would end up forecasting unconvincingly high revenues for the various segments of the smart surface market.

As an aside, in n-tech Research’ report on smart coatings, we do use a looser definition, since this seems to be the established practice for smart coatings—a more mature sector than smart surfaces.

The products forecast in this report do not include coatings that are added after the smart surface is initially installed. For example, a self-cleaning window at the current state of


Phone: 804-938-0030


Page | 13

technological maturity may need to be recoated after a few years. The trend in the smart surface business is to try to ensure that this kind of recoating is minimized.

Pricing and revenues: These volume forecasts are converted to revenues by multiplying by prices. Unfortunately, since pricing in this space is not available to any extent, we have gone with what we consider plausible pricing based on underlying costs and what the various applications covered seem willing to pay for such products.

In a few cases, we couldn’t arrive at a clear idea of what prices would be appropriate and instead projected revenues, again based on what was plausible.

Also, we note that we have assumed that prices/revenues are based on the “complete package”—substrate and sensors (where appropriate), as well as the smart materials/smart coatings themselves.

Geographies: This report is entirely international in scope. The forecasts are worldwide forecasts, but we have broken them out by geography in appropriate ways.

Other than this we have not been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in the report or interviewed in order to collect information.

However, a certain degree of emphasis has been placed on the developed world, because most of the research around smart surfaces is largely pursued in the developed world. The firms and research discussed in this report were selected by importance, not by location.

Economies: Although the forecasts in this report are not based specifically on economic growth projections, they are implicitly assuming modest growth throughout all the regions under consideration. These days, modest growth is a lot less than it once was.

1.4 Plan of Report

Chapter Two of this Report reviews and assesses the various technologies that make up the smart surfaces segment as currently understood

In the remaining chapters—Chapters Three through Chapter Eight—we review the various markets in which smart surfaces are likely to generate revenues over the next eight years and also provide eight-year forecasts of these revenues.

Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022 Sample Chapter

Documents

Transcript of Smart Surfaces Markets 2015-2022 Sample Chapter