Smart Markets Enabling Energy...
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©Chris Schmidt - istockphoto Smart Markets Enabling Energy Efficiency: Your Investment Opportunity in Germany HMI 2015 Henning Ellermann
Transcript of Smart Markets Enabling Energy...
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Smart Markets Enabling Energy Efficiency:
Your Investment Opportunity in Germany
HMI 2015
Henning Ellermann
www.gtai.com
Company Tasks
The foreign trade and inward investment promotion agency of the
Federal Republic of Germany
The Agency
24 April 2015 2 Germany Trade & Invest
Investment Attraction
Location Promotion Export Promotion
German Parliament Resolutions for Founding/Financing
Federal Government
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy - Shareholder
www.gtai.com
Two Headquarters in Germany - 50 Locations Worldwide
The Agency
24 April 2015
Chicago New York San Francisco Toronto Washington D.C.
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Accra Cairo Johannesburg Nairobi Tunis
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Bangkok Beijing Hanoi Hong Kong Jakarta Kuala Lumpur Mumbai New Delhi Seoul Shanghai Taipeh
Tokyo
Sydney
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Berlin Bonn
Germany Trade & Invest 3
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Complete your project management needs from our range of investment
and one-stop project consultancy services.
Germany Trade & Invest
24.04.2015 4
Project Management Assistance
Location Consulting/Site Evaluation
Project partner
identification and
contact
Business opportunity analysis
and market research
Market entry
strategy support
Joint project
management with
regional
development
agency
Coordination and
support of
negotiations with
local authorities
Final site decision
support Site preselection
Identification of project-
specific location factors
Cost factor
analysis
Site visit
organization
Organization of
meetings with legal
advisors and
financial partners
Identification of relevant tax
and legal issues
Project-related
financing and
incentives
consultancy
Administrative
affairs support
Accompanying
incentives
application and
establishment
formalities
Decision & Investment Evaluation Strategy
Support Services
I. The German Energy Transition
II. The Changing Roles of Buildings & Consumers
III. Enablers
Agenda
www.gtai.com
Ambitious goal: Transition towards a more sustainable energy system
Germany’s Energiewende
24.04.2015 6
Energy efficiency measures
Increase in energy productivity 2.1% p.a.
Reduction of primary energy consumption -50% (2050 vs. 2008)
Reduction of electricity consumption -25% (2050 vs. 2008)
Building refurbishment rate 2% p.a.
Reduction of final energy for transportation -40% (2050 vs. 2005)
Climate protection measures 2020 2050
CO2 cuts vs. 1990 -40% -80%
Renewable share of… 2020 2050
Total energy consumption 18% 60%
Electricity consumption 35% 80%
Heat generation 14% 60%
24.04.2015 | www.gtai.com
Total capacity of renewables (End 2000)
Wind energy
PV
Biomass
The circle diameter is proportional
to the electrical capacity
~ 30,000 installations
Sources: 50HertzT, TenneT, Amprion, TransnetBW, internal data
~ 221,000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2005)
~ 750,000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2010)
~ 1.300.000 installations
Total capacity of renewables (End 2012)
Renewables = THE game changer
24.04.2015 www.gtai.com
The share of renewable energy in electricity generation has increased
from 5% to 27.3% since 1998
Source: AG Energiebilanzen December 2014 * Gross Electricity Generation
Electricity Supply – From Generation to Integration
Nuclear
Power
29,1%
Lignite
25,0%
Hard Coal
27,5%
Natural
Gas
9,1%
Oil,
Pumped
Storage +
Others
4,6%
Renewable
Energies
5%
Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation*
(1998)
Energy Source Share in Electricity Generation*
(2014)
Total: 557.2 TWh
Export: 0.6 TWh
8
Nuclear
Power
15,9%
Lignite
25,6%
Hard Coal
18,0%
Natural
Gas
9,6%
Oil and
others
5,1%
Biomass &
waste
8,0%
Hydro
power 3,4%
Wind
Offshore 0,2%
Wind
Onshore
8,4%
Photovoltai
c
5,8%
Total: 610.4 TWh
Export: 34.1 TWh
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Power balance 2012
New power structure in 2022 will lead to bottlenecks in Germany
Offshore-
Wind parks
Power balance 2022
Source: Netzentwicklungsplan 2012
The electricity grid in Germany: Bottlenecks ahead!
An enormous expansion of the high voltage grid system is required by
2024.
*Costs estimates per NEP-Draft 2014 49GW/12GW wind onshore/offshore
Source: TSO 2014
Expansion of the electricity grid in Germany
Expansion and Reinforcement
Transmission grid
Grid expansion and Reinforcement of 8,700km is
required by 2024
Baseline scenario with overhead lines requires:
22 bn €*
Additionally the connection of the offshore-grid is
estimated to
10-12 bn €
Grid Expansion Distance in Km.
DC-New Construction 2,200
AC-New Construction 1,300
DC/AC- Grid Reinforcement
5,200
10
www.gtai.com
On the European level, some 100
transmission projects from 100 MW to 4
GW need to address grid bottlenecks until
2022**:
12,590 km HVDC and 37,520 km HVAC
Worth EUR 104bn until 2022 (including
EUR 23 bn for subsea cables)
Grid Extension must be seen from a European perspective
2012-2014 (km) HVDC HVAC >330 kV
Subsea Cables 9,000 400
Underground Cables 1,490 420
New OHL 2,100 28,400
Upgrade OHL 0 8,300
Total 12,500 37,520
11
Approx. 50,000 km of transmission lines needed to mitigate larger,
volatile long distance power flows through EU by 2022
100 main bottlenecks in Europe in 2020
Source: TYNDP-2012. Ten-year network development plan ENTSO-E , July 2012, www.entsoe.eu
Need for new HVDC/HVAC cables until 2022
in km
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Distribution grid
Investment needs for the distribution grid
extension and conversion until 2030
Massive needs to expand the distribution grid
Source: German Energy Agency (Dena), 2012: Distribution Grid Study
12
3,6
7,8 16,1
low-voltage (<400 V)
medium-voltage (1 - 30 kV)
high-voltage (60 - 110 kV (150 kV))
Scenario 2
(conservative estimation):
€27.5bn
4,2
12
26,3
Scenario 1
(increased and faster expansion
of renewables): €42.5bn
Results of the Distribution Grid
Study(Dena, 2012):
the German distribution grids require
expansions of 135,000 km up to 193,000 km
conversions of 21,000 to 25,000 km
investment needs for the grid extension
and conversion:
until 2020: €18.4bn – €26.7bn
until 2030: €27.5bn – €42.5bn
investment needs can be reduced by
various technical options, e.g.:
innovative operational resources,
down-regulation of power peaks of renewable
generation,
storage systems
www.gtai.com
*Source: EEX 2013 (http://www.transparency.eex.com)
Occasional overcapacities in electricity production due to fluctuating RES Increasing volatility of electricity prices! Business case for storage?
Electricity generation in Germany June 16th 2013 @ ~34 GWp installed PV capacity
Batteries & thermal buffers balancing the grid
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
00:00 02:00 04:00 06:00 08:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00
MW
Solar Wind Non-Fluctuating
€/MWh
* Model calculation for rooftop systems, based on 802 kWh/kWp (Frankfurt/Main), 100% financing, 6% interest rate, 20 year term, 2% p.a. O&M costs
** based on 5,000 cycles , 87% efficiency
Sources: System Prices: BSW 2015; Model Calculation: Deutsche Bank 2010; Electricity Prices 2007-2013: Eurostat 2013.
With fruther increasing electricity prices and decreasing PV system costs,
the business case for storage is becoming better and better
Prognosis
0,70
0,90
1,10
1,30
1,50
1,70
1,90
2,10
2,30
2,50
2,70
2,90
3,10
3,30
3,50
3,70
3,90
4,10
4,30
4,50
4,70
4,90
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
0,30
0,35
0,40
0,45
0,50
0,55
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012 2013
EU
R/k
Wh
Electricity price for households [2.5-5 MWh/a] Electricity costs for PV + Battery** Electricity costs for PV*
From Grid-Parity to Battery-Parity
www.gtai.com
P
24.04.2015
Typical daily energy profile in winter
Typical annual consumption profile
Typical daily energy profile in summer
15
1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h 1h 3h 5h 7h 9h 11h 13h 15h 17h 19h 21h 23h
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Based on 3.500 kWh annual consumption (Standard load profile), 5 kWp PV-System @ 1000kWh/kWp (Standard profile), Battery with 6 kWh usable capacity
Energy independence with a 5 kWp PV + 6 kWh Battery system: 100% during summer, ~20% during Winter 75% over the year
Example: Household with 3.500 kWh consumption
PV-Production Battery Output Consumption
From Battery
From PV
From Grid
0
5
0
5
kW
h
kW
h
Energ
y
24.04.2015 | www.gtai.com
The E-Energy Vision for a Smart Grid: More flexibility, engaged prosumers
Smart Markets to Address Demand Side
Source: E-Energy
www.e-energy.de/en
www.gtai.com
The programme supports the establishment of
SINTEG pilot regions/showcases:
To develop and demonstrate large-scale solutions for
a reliable and efficient energy supply and smart grids
with a high degree of fluctuating energy (temporarily
up to 100 % renewable energy).
To improve the interplay between electricity
generation, consumption, storage, and the grid.
Example: A pilot region might, for instance, use smart
grids to improve demand-side flexibility, and to
connect load centres where there is high population
and industrial density, with regions in which there are
temporary surpluses of renewable energy.
Funding programme "Smart Energy - Digital Agenda for the Energy
Transition" (SINTEG)
Note: SINTEG = Förderprogramm "Schaufenster intelligente Energie - Digitale Agenda für die Energiewende“; Link to announcement (German only):
http://www.bmwi.de/BMWi/Redaktion/PDF/B/bekanntmachung-foederung-schaufenster-intelligente-energie-digitale-agenda-fuer-die-
energiewende,property=pdf,bereich=bmwi2012,sprache=de,rwb=true.pdf; Source: Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy 2015
R&D Support Program for Renewable Energies
17
Eligible are enterprises of the
commercial economy, universities
and non-university research
organizations with registered office
and core activities in Germany;
supported are collaborative projects
(Verbundprojekte)
Amount of funding: total of up to Euro
80 million in funding for at least two
large showcase regions
Type of support: The support is
provided in the form of a non-
repayable cash grant. The rate
depends on the type of organization.
Deadline for submission of project
draft: 31. Mai 2015. Funding is
granted for a project duration of 4
years
I. The German Energy Transition
II. The Changing Roles of Buildings & Consumers
III. Enablers
Agenda
www.gtai.com
Energy efficiency trumps all other home features for Germans
Image: © Nerthuz – www.istockphoto.com; Source: E.ON 2014
Energy-Efficient Building in Germany
24.04.2015 19
Do not know, no data
Tasteful interior furnishing
Roomy, with lots of space
Latest technology
Robust and durableappliances
Barrier-free living
Garden, terrace, balcony
Energy efficiency
2%
4%
6%
7%
8%
12%
28%
34%
What is important to Germans when building a house?
www.gtai.com
Primary Energy Efficiency in Germany
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
GDP PEC Energy Productivity Energy Intensity
Base year = 1990
Germany aims to decouple economic growth and energy consumption –
much has been achieved but the potential is still vast.
Source: Authors‘ own graph; data source: AGEB (Working Group on Energy Balances), 2013
20
Average change in % p.a.
Increase 1990 to 2012 in percentage points
+ 1.85 + 50
+ 1.44 + 37
- 0.4 - 9
- 1.82 - 33
24.04.2015 www.gtai.com
Germany is among the world leaders in energy efficiency.
Source: ACEEE 2014
Energy Efficiency in Comparison
21
www.gtai.com
German Building Stock in Need of Renovation
40 mln residential units – the largest housing stock in Europe
Source: Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development, BBSR dena, Foundation New Responsibility
24.04.2015 22
70% built before 1979
75% not or only partially refurbished
75% owner-occupied or rented out by small-scale landlords
55% of households rent!
50% of housing stock up for refurb in next 20 years!
Multi-family
15.4 mln
bldgs.
3.2 mln
bldgs.
2.7 mln
bldgs.
(Semi-) detached Commercial
www.gtai.com
Final Energy Consumption – A Hot Topic
Private households (2012)
55,2%
15,1% 5,6%
15,2%
3,5%
5,4%
Commerce, Services and
Trade (2012)
Heat dominates final energy consumption both of private households and non-
residential buildings.
Source: AGEB 2013
24.04.2015 23
74,4%
1,9%
3,7% 0,5% 4,3%
15,2%
73%
1,5% 1,3%
21,9%
1,4%
0,9%
Space Heating & Process Heat
Lighting
ICT
Mechanical Energy
Climatization & Process Cooling
Hot Water
Industry (2012)
www.gtai.com
Development of Energy-Efficient Building
Minimum Energy Efficiency Requirements for New Buildings in Germany
Integrated approach of R&D, incentives, information, and standards pulls
and pushes the market towards more efficient technologies.
24 Germany Trade & Invest 21.10.2014
www.gtai.com
Plus energy houses can now cost as little as 10% more than standard
homes. Is this the way forward?
Sources: BMVI, WeberHaus, DENEFF
Buildings: Beyond Net Zero Energy
24.04.2015 25
Well-insulated, airtight envelope, heat recovery ventilation
Combinations of PV, ST & storage (batteries and/or thermal buffer)
Heat pumps, resistance heaters, hybrid boilers
CHP (fuel cells, ICE or stirling), Virtual Power Plants
Home energy management system, automated or engaging
I. The German Energy Transition
II. The Changing Roles of Buildings & Consumers
III. Enablers
Agenda
www.gtai.com
Smart Home Market Prognosis
0
500
1000
1500
2013 2014* 2015* 2016* 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020*
315 360
430
500
600
720
860
1000
400
500
660
810
1000
1200
1450
Nu
mb
er o
f S
mart
Ho
me h
ou
seh
old
s
(in
th
ou
san
ds)
Conservative Progressive
Number of Smart Home Households (in thousands): Conservative and
Progressive Scenarios
Smart home is transitioning from niche to mass market product,
breakthrough expected for 2015/2016
Note: *) Prognosis Source: Deloitte/BITKOM 2014
24.04.2015 27
www.gtai.com
Heating
controls
Energy management systems (EMS) are the key driver for smarter
buildings – offering both comfort and tangible savings
Images: Netatmo, Solarworld, QIVICON
HEMS/BEMS
24.04.2015 28
HEMS
Consumption
monitoring &
optimization
(PV, storage,
CHP, HPs)
Smart Home (integrated or platform)
BEMS BACS strong already, but BEMS/BACS integration next step
www.gtai.com
Decision about
roll-out
strategy likely
this summer!
Smart Meter Roll-out Offers New Possibilities
29
The German Energy Economy Law already has requirements in place for
a smart meter roll-out.
Picture Source: Landis + Gyr
Smart Meters are already
required for:
Buildings newly connected to
the energy supply grid or
buildings undergoing large
renovations.
End users whose annual energy
use exceeds 6,000 kWh.
New (from 2011) power
generating facilities with a
capacity exceeding 7 kW.
Under current legislation,
23% of Germany‘s 50
million meters would be
smart by 2022.
EU requirement to prepare
large roll-out by 2022
Government-commissioned cost-
benefit analysis recommends:
Extending requirements to
existing RE facilities and
gradually replacing all meters
with intelligent meters that can
be upgraded to full Smart
Metering Systems (SMS)
50 million intelligent meters
and SMS until 2029 for
electricity (100%)
14 million intelligent meters
for gas by 2029
Germany Trade & Invest 28.03.2014
www.gtai.com
New approaches enable new markets and can disrupt old ones.
Germany‘s Energiewende makes it an ideal test bed and first market.
We Want Your Innovation!
24.04.2015 30
ICT
Data
Financing
Processes Policy
Materials Business
Models
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The inward investment promotion agency of the Federal Republic of
Germany helps you establish your presence in Europe‘s leading economy.
Source: Eurostat 2014
Note: EU-28’s center: 42 km east of Frankfurt/Main in Meerholz, Hessen
Germany Trade & Invest
24.04.2015
Europe’s largest industrial and building technology clusters are waiting for your investment.
From Germany, nearly all of Europe can be reached by air in 3 hours and by road in 24 hours (flight, truck, and railway hours from Berlin).
24 h
3 h
1.5 h
Rome
12 h
London
Moscow
48 h
24 h
Warsaw
Prague
Berlin
Vienna Budapest
Brussels
Madrid
Riga
Helsinki
Athens
Copenhagen
Paris
Stockholm
EU member states
Non-EU member states
2013 EU28 Germany
Population mn 505 80
GDP (in EUR bn) 13,075 2,738
GDP Growth (YoY) 0.1% 0.4%
Inflation 1.5% 1.6%
Unemployment 10.8% 5.3%
Headquarters and Sales Offices
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Mr. Henning Ellermann Senior Manager Energy Efficiency T. +49 30 200 099-257 [email protected]
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North America
Europe
Asia-Pacific
© 2013 Germany Trade & Invest All information provided by Germany Trade & Invest has been put together with the utmost care. However, we assume no liability for the accuracy of the information provided.
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Beijing Office
Team Energy, Environment and Resources
Mr. Heiko Staubitz Senior Manager Energy Storage / Smart Grid T. +49 30 200 099-226 [email protected]
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