THE SMART GRID IN EUROPE, 2012-2016: TECHNOLOGIES, MARKET FORECASTS AND UTILITY PROFILES

The strategies for engaging electricity markets in Europe are undergoing dramatic shifts; market liberalization and utility unbundling

have promoted a wave of mergers and acquisitions, as well as a crop of new electric service providers across the continent. Within

these new terms of engagement, the smart grid is emerging as a major focus for regulators and an opportunity for industry players,

as Europe aims to optimize its renewables growth and nascent electric vehicle (EV) charging station deployment, as well as to

achieve greater efficiency at the consumer level.

By 2016, GTM Research forecasts €6.8 billion per year in smart grid investment in Europe. The market segments receiving the

bulk of this investment will be Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), Distribution Automation (DA), EVs and Utility Enterprise (IT

systems). Currently, AMI is the most developed segment. GTM Research analyzes how utilities within each country are negotiating

further deployment and triangulating between policy, in-house business cases and the consumer's role to enable industry growth.

LEVELS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF SMART METERING IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

GTM Research's industry-leading analysis on the European smart grid market is a definitive resource for the global smart grid

industry. The report offers strategic insight into the key drivers and barriers for growth in the region and examines the latest

investment trends, providing a forecast of the market for AMI, DA, EV integration technologies and Utility Enterprise (IT systems).

In addition, the report profiles the smart grid integration models and pilot projects of Europe's most active utilities, including EDF,

ENEL, E.ON, GDF Suez, RWE, Iberdrola, Endesa, Centrica, Vattenfall, EDP, Dong Energy and Fortum. The Smart Grid in Europe,

2012-2016 also analyzes and compares smart grid positioning in Europe with that of utilities in the U.S., Japan and China.

GEERT-JAN VAN DER ZANDEN | GTM RESEARCH

REACTIVE PROACTIVEUtility Activity

- 0

+

Reg

ulat

ory

Push

First MoversRegulatory Drive

Lagging

Dynamic Utilities

ITALY

FINLAND

NETHERLANDS

ROMANIA

GREECEBELGIUM

CZECH REPGERMANY

AUSTRIA

NORWAY

SWEDEN

SPAIN

PORTUGAL

IRELAND

DENMARK

MALTA

SLOVENIA

ESTONIA

LATVIALITHUANIA

BULGARIA

HUNGARY

POLAND

SLOVAKIA

UKFRANCE

0 - 1

2020 AMI Total Market Forecast

(# of meters, millions)

1 - 10

10 - 35

LEVELS OF IMPLEMENTATION OF SMART METERING IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 Key Findings

2. DISTINCTIVE FEATURES OF THE SMART GRID IN EUROPE

2.1 Smart grid drivers

2.1.1 Environmental considerations, policies and stimulus funds

2.1.2 The need for energy security

2.1.3 Visions of a European “Supergrid”

2.1.4 Economic drivers

2.1.5 New technologies

2.2 Barriers to smart grid deployment

2.2.1 Policy and Regulation

2.2.2 Market uncertainty and distortions

2.2.3 Technology Barriers

2.2.4 Lack of Consumer Involvement

2.3 Smart grid: Utility and Societal Business Case

2.4 Comparison of EU to other smart grid markets

2.4.1 Regulatory drivers

2.4.2 Market dynamics: Changing business model?

2.4.3 Investment levels

2.4.4 Technology

3. TECHNOLOGY: LEADING SOLUTIONS

3.1 Advanced Metering Solutions

3.1.1 Meter rollouts and suppliers (already deployed)

3.1.2 Planned Rollouts in Spain, France and the U.K.

3.2 Distribution automation

3.3 IT Systems Integration

3.4 Integration of Distributed and Renewable Energy Sources

3.5 Electric Vehicles

4. MARKET FORECAST FOR THE EUROPEAN SMART GRID

4.1 Investment trends

4.1.1 Cleantech VC and M&A

4.1.2 Smart grid VC and M&A

4.2 Market segments forecasts

4.2.1 Advanced Metering Infrastructure

4.2.2 Distribution Automation

4.2.3 IT Systems Integration

4.2.4 DG/RES integration

4.2.5 EV integration

5. TOP EU ELECTRICITY UTILITIES, 2011

1. Electricité De France - France

2. Enel SpA - Italy

3. E.ON AG - Germany

4. GDF Suez SA - France

5. RWE AG - Germany

6. Iberdrola SA - Spain

7. Endesa SA – Spain

8. Centrica - United Kingdom

9. Vattenfall AB - Sweden

10. Energias de Portugal SA (EDP) – Portugal

11. DONG Energy - Denmark

12. FORTUM - Finland

LIST OF FIGURES

1 INTRODUCTION

· European smart grid market forecast, 2012-2016

· European hotspots for smart grid technology 2012-2016

2 DISTINCTIVE FEATURES OF THE SMART GRID IN EUROPE

· Smart grid drivers and barriers

· Drivers and Levels of implementation of smart metering in European countries

· Renewable energy in final energy consumption in Europe: 2008 status and 2020 target

· Future vision of the European HVDC interconnected Supergrid

· International comparison of reliability indices (2007)

· Electricity rates per KWh for households and industrial customers in selected European markets

· A now popular slide in many industry presentations: the smart grid hype cycle

· Utility and societal business cases for full rollout of smart grid technology in Europe (estimated annual)

· Estimated impact of reduction in consumption on utility and consumer cash flows

· Average annual electricity bill in selected European markets

· Structure and key figures for European electricity generation, transmission and distribution

· Regional comparison of smart grid developments

· Cost and potential comparison of different GHG abatement measures

· Reduction of investment plans by E.ON, Enel, Vattenfall and Iberdrola (€ billions)

· Field-level communication technologies for smart grids

· Timeline of EC smart grid R&D objectives and policy targets

3 TECHNOLOGY: LEADING SOLUTIONS

· European smart metering hotspots: Meters installed, confirmed plans and 2020 forecast

· Recent acquisitions and investments in the DA arena

· Focus areas of IT system investment in the European smart grid

· Contribution of renewables to European electricity production, TWh and %

· PREMIO R&D project overview

· Demonstration sites of the EU’s Green eMotion project

· Barriers to EV rollout

· RWE roadmap for EV integration

· Enel EV charging architecture

4 MARKET FORECAST FOR THE EUROPEAN SMART GRID

· Cleantech VC investments in Europe by category

· Smart grid VC funding, 2008-2011

· Smart grid VC deals in Europe, 2010

· Smart grid M&A deals in Europe, 2010

· Legal, regulatory and implementation status of smart metering in selected European markets

· Declared AMI deployments and unit costs in Europe

· Cost components of AMI installation

· A : European meter deployment forecast, 2012-2016, B: AMI investment forecast, 2012-2016

· A : AMI Forecast Calculation, 2012-2016, B : AMI Forecast Calculation, 2012-2016

· European hotspots for distribution automation, 2012-2016

· Endpoints per secondary substation in Europe

· European DA forecast calculation, 2012-2016

· European distribution automation market forecast, 2012-2016

· IT Systems forecast for Europe, 2012-2016

· European hotspots for DG/RES integration, 2012-2016

· Examples of European EV sales forecasts

· European hotspots for EV integration, 2012-2016

· EV Integration forecast calculation for Europe, 2012-2016

· European EV integration forecast, 2012-2016

5 TOP EU ELECTRICITY UTILITIES, 2011

· Key facts about Europe’s leading electricity utilities

· PREMIO project: Distributed Energy Resources Aggregation and Management

· Communication infrastructure for Enel’s Energy@Home project

· Enel Smart Grid Roadmap

· E.ON’s Energy Butler architecture

· E-DeMa consortium partners

· PRIME Alliance members

· Vattenfall’s Capital Investment Plans, 2011-2015

SAMPLE FIGURES WITH ANALYSIS

EUROPEAN SMART METERING HOTSPOTS: METERS INSTALLED, CONFIRMED PLANS AND 2020 FORECAST

TIMELINE OF EC SMART GRID R&D OBJECTIVES AND POLICY TARGETS

The smart metering landscape in Europe is changing

rapidly. An estimated 42.3 million smart meters are

installed in the EU today, mainly as the result of

large rollouts in Italy, Sweden, Finland and Denmark.

With AMI rollouts planned in several of the larger

member states, such as France, the U.K., and

Spain, this number is expected to rise rapidly over

the coming years and is expected to reach close

to 206 million by 2020. An overview of installed

and forecasted numbers of smart meters in each

European market is given in this figure.

All smart grid plans in Europe are synchronized to

2020, when an expected 80% of households should

have smart meters installed. Smart meter rollouts

have been delayed in some markets because of lack

of interoperability standards or insufficient regulatory

frameworks, as well as consumer concerns about

privacy, such as in Germany and the Netherlands.

Initial efforts to agree on interoperability standards

did not succeed, but efforts are now being made to

reach agreed-upon standards by the end of 2012.

In 2013, carbon taxing will come into effect in

Europe, further speeding up the need to integrate

renewables. Another goal of the EC is to have a fully

integrated internal energy market operating by 2014.

A timeline of EC smart grid R&D objectives and

policy targets is represented in this figure.

IMPLEMENTED

CONFIRMED PLANS

FORECAST TOTAL 2020

TOTAL AMI MARKET(000’s) #

Smart Metering Hotspots: METERS INSTALLED, CONFIRMED PLANS AND FORECAST 2020

32,000

32,000

27,000

35,000

23,000

245

3,440

2,320

5,920

1,3603,440

2,880

3,600

5,840

1,9204,650

1,760

2,600

1,800

3,040

10,400

3,040560

960

720

680

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

METERING

NETWORK TECHNOLOGIES

GRID ARCHITECTURE AND PLANNING

CUSTOMER ENGAGEMENT

MARKET DESIGN

Standardization for smart grid and meters

80% of EU householdssmart metered

Demonstration program of critical power technologies

R&D program and scale demonstrationsto develop distribution automation networkcontrol and operation

R&D + pilot tests: Development of modeling andplanning tools for long term grid scenarios

Specification of secure offshore HVDC

Feasibility of RES for grid stability

Meshed HVDC network validated

Tools for pan-European grid monitoring and control

Tool for architecture and longterm grid scenario planning

R&D + pilot tests: validation of innovative pan-European grid Architecture

R&D program on asset managementand preventive maintenance

Large scale demonstration involving customers:Demand response for energy efficiency and reduction of peak consumption; smart meters and metering infrastructure

Demonstrations operational Demonstrations validated

R&D + pilot tests: efficient market design options based on simulation techniques

Proposal for market designs

Full Carbon taxing for utilities

EU internal energy market20-20-20

goals

Start year to finish year

SAMPLE PROFILES

Electricité de France (EDF), an integrated energy company, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, supply, and trading of energies in France and internationally. It sells electricity to industry, local authorities, small businesses, and residential consumers. The company also offers district heating and thermal energy services to industry and local authorities.

EDF owns 128 GW of power generation capacity and generates approximately 618.5 TWh of electricity worldwide. Of its sales of €65.2 billion, €36.2 billion are in France and €16.3 billion are in the U.K. and Italy. In terms of supply, Electricité De France (EDF) controls 22% of the European electricity market. It supplies close to 38 million customers worldwide, most of them in Europe.

The company generates electricity using mainly nuclear power (74.6 GW), conventional fossil-fired power (35 GW) and hydro power, but is growing its renewable power capacity rapidly through its subsidiary EDF Energies Nouvelles.

Growth strategy EDFs growth strategy is based on three pillars:

» Strengthening its market position in Europe

» Developing renewable energy

» Investing in nuclear revival

Renewable energy EDF owns 50% of EDF Energies Nouvelles (EDF EN), where it aims to reach 3.7 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2012, up from 2.65 GW at the end of 2009. EDF EN is planning to expand its photovoltaic capacity over this period from 219.7 MWc to 500MWc. The company is also active in biomass and geothermal energy. The strongest expansion is foreseen in wind energy generation: in Italy, EDF subsidiary Edison will add 800 MW of wind capacity to its existing 300 MW by 2014.

Revenues (2010): €65.2 billion EBITDA: €16.6 billion

Business areas

GENERATION (2009) CUSTOMERS

France 453.6 TWh 27.7 million

U.K. 72.1 TWh 5.6 million

Worldwide 618.5 TWh 37.9 million

Utility profiles also include analysis on …

» Capital and R&D investments

» Smart grid initiatives

» Pilot projects

» Strategic outlook

ELECTRICITÉ DE FRANCE - FRANCE

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