Small Cars: Reality or Myth?...Mitsubishi iMiEV Scion iQ % Share of TIV Despite the struggles of the...

Small Cars: Reality or Myth?

Michael RobinetDirector, Global Production ForecastsIHS Automotive

February 24, 2011

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved.Actuals and forecast reflect CSM Worldwide’s light vehicle production and Global Insight’s light vehicle sales for vehicles up to 6t GVW

• Going Global

• US Sales Prospects

• NA Sourcing

• Summary

Agenda


Global ScaleHigh Volume, Global Platforms – Top 10 by 2016

3.7

2.9

2.9

2.1

536

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

0 1 2 3 4

Toyota - MC-M

Hyundai - HD

VW - MQB A/B

Renault/Nissan - B

GM - Global Delta/D2XX

Ford - C1 MCA

Hyundai - PB

Honda - C5

Ford - B2e

Honda - GSP

Millions

• Every top 10 global platform has/will have exposure to North America

• March of global platforms into developing markets accounts for overall growth

• Volume expansion also driven by major OEM platform consolidation in B- through D-segments and enhances design flexibility

• Platform consolidation alters competitive dynamic toward larger, more diversified players

3

Segment (Top Nameplate)

B (Fit)

B (Fiesta)

C (Civic)

B (Accent)

C (Focus)

C (Astra/Cruze)

B (Versa/Clio)

C/D (Golf)

C (Elantra)

C/D (Camry)


Global Segment Analysis 2010-2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

A B C D E F-F

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%A-Segment

B-Segment

D-Segment

C-Segment

2010

Glo

bal S

egm

ents

in M

illio

ns

Full-Frame

• North America shifted output from full-frame offerings to B-, C- and D-segment offerings, due to higher commodity costs and regulatory constraints.

• The average age of core B-, C- and D-segment vehicles in the market will decline, dueto consumer demand and requirements for integrating new fuel economy technologies.

• The B- and C-segments are the key growth markets in Brazil and China.

Segment C

hanges in %2010-2013

Contribution to Growth 2010-2013

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

A B C D E F-F


5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2002 2006 2010 2014 2017

D-FFSegment Developed Mkts D-FF Segment Emerging MktsA-C Segment Developed Mkts A-C Segment Emerging Mkts

Global Light Vehicle SalesA Through C Segments Dominate

Milli

ons

CAGR (2010-17)

2.8%

5.8%

3.2%

7.2%

67%

52%


• Going Global


• NA Sourcing

• Summary

Agenda


7

Honda Civic• 1978 – OAL* 150”, WB** 87”• 1988 – OAL 163”, WB 97”• 1998 – OAL 175”, WB 103”• 2008 – OAL 177”, WB 106”

• Smaller segment car sizes have inched up steadily over the past 30 years - and especially in the last 10 years.

• Today’s Toyota Yaris 4-door B-Car is approximately the size of a 10-year-old Civic C-Car.

* OAL – Overall Length; ** WB – Wheel Base

Dimension Creep

Honda Accord• 1978 – OAL 163”, WB 94”• 1988 – OAL 180”, WB 102”• 1998 – OAL 189”, WB 107”• 2008 – OAL 194”, WB 110”

OAL 169”, WB 100”


Limits Of Consumer Pull

Current Market Conditions• Fuel prices: moderately stable; relatively low• Constrained consumers

However …

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Oil - WTI (US$ per barrel)

Pric

e P

er B

arre

l In

US

Dol

lars


Depress5%

Quiets13%

Baby Boomer

s34%

Gen X19%

Gen Y29%

Depress12%

Quiets14%

Baby Boomer

s34%

Gen X20%

Gen Y20%

Quiets12%

Baby Boomer

s31%

Gen X18%

Gen Y27%

Gen Z12%

Depress19%

Quiets14%Baby

Boomers

36%

Gen X20%

Gen Y11%

2000 2005

2010 2015 - 57% will be under 50 years old

2000-2015 Profile Of American Drivers


10

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sha

re o

f Mar

ket

Smart ForTwo Fiat 500 Chevy SparkMitsubishi iMiEV Scion iQ % Share of TIV

Despite the struggles of the only entry in this segment, the Smart ForTwo, more OEMs are bringing vehicles into this segment.

Electrification will be prevalent

Thou

sand

sA-Segment Sales - US


11

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sha

re o

f Mar

ket

VW Toyota Scion SuzukiNissan Mitsibishi Mazda KiaHonda Chevrolet Ford SmartChrysler/Dodge MINI BMW % Share of TIV

OEMs are introducing many new models but volume has never been particularly strong.

B-Segment Sales - USM

illion

s


12

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sha

re o

f Mar

ket

Other Jeep Cadillac Buick Lexus LincolnAudi Chrysler Scion Mitsubishi Dodge KiaSubaru Mazda Hyundai Volkswagen Toyota NissanChevrolet Honda Ford Share of TIV

Model proliferation is high, content is emphasized

C-Segment Sales - USM

illion

s


• Going Global


• NA Sourcing

• Summary

Agenda


14

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Sha

re o

f Pro

duct

ion

Other OEMs Fiat/Chrysler HyundaiToyota Volkswagen Renault/NissanHonda General Motors FordShare of NAFTA Output

Growth in Mexico, import substitution, bodystyle proliferation, export opportunities and market dynamics drive a rising share in NAFTA

A Through C-Segment Production - NAFTAM

illion

s


• Going Global


• NA Sourcing

• Summary

Agenda


• Global platforms add a new dynamic – export sourcing, greater economies of scale, increase content/value

• CAFE is a driver though ownership costs and demographics are also critical

• Demand from Mexico is a key anchor for B-segment volume in NAFTA

• Increased production flexibility reduces downstream risk versus last generation efforts

Summary

Thank You!

Michael RobinetMichael. [email protected]

[email protected]

Small Cars: Reality or Myth?...Mitsubishi iMiEV Scion iQ % Share of TIV Despite the struggles of the...

Documents

Transcript of Small Cars: Reality or Myth?...Mitsubishi iMiEV Scion iQ % Share of TIV Despite the struggles of the...