Slides from Launch of Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013
-
Upload
marcellus-drilling-news -
Category
News & Politics
-
view
103 -
download
0
description
Transcript of Slides from Launch of Medium-Term Gas Market Report 2013
Launch Event: St PetersburgLaunch Event: St Petersburg International Economic ForumLaszlo Varro
Head, Gas Coal and Power MarketsHead, Gas Coal and Power Markets
© OECD/IEA 2013
Gas slows down but still expands its role
Global gas consumption grows at 100 bcm/year, or a Russia in 5 yearsor a Russia in 5 years.
5 year growth revised down by 70 bcm, due to EU demand and Middle East/Africa supplyEU demand and Middle East/Africa supply
At 2.4%/year, gas is growing faster than oil or overall energy use but continues to fall behindoverall energy use but continues to fall behind coal
Transportation emerges as a major demand p g jdriver, accounting for 10% of gas demand growth, driven by China and the United States
© OECD/IEA 2013
The United States continues to dominate non‐conventional developmentp
Technological improvements in
CANADA
Bakken
improvements in seismic, drilling and fracking
Antrim
New Albany
Uinta (CBM)
Piceance (CBM)
Powder River (CBM)
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Niobrara
g
“Mass manufacturing”
San Juan (CBM)
Raton (CBM) Marcellus
Devonian
Utica
Fayetteville
BarnettHaynesville
Eagle
Monterey
Woodford
Barnett/
Woodford
gmethods in oil field services
Eagle
Ford
Basin
Shale gas production
This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
MEXICO
Strong financial boost from liquids
© OECD/IEA 2013
With US markets saturated, Canadian production growth depends on LNG exports
Recovery of gas prices causes a blip in the march of gasin the march of gas2000
Gas and coal fired power generation in the US, historical and projectedTwh
1400
1600
1800
800
1000
1200
200
400
600
coal gas
In the absence of constraints on coal‐plant operation power‐sector
0
00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© OECD/IEA 2013
In the absence of constraints on coal‐plant operation, power‐sector emissions increase by 120 million tons, despite shale gas
Security issues, depletion and domestic demand growth lead to tight LNG supply
LNG liquefaction plants
i h li i l i biliwith political instabilitywith declining gas outputwith surging domestic demand
© OECD/IEA 2013
Supply shortfalls double the market impact of Japanese demand increase
New LNG supply is predominantly backed by long‐term contractsbacked by long term contracts
140
160bcm
80
100
120
140
20
40
60
80
0
20
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Portfolio LNG The rest of the world Other Asia
Portfolio LNG and secondary re‐exports both play an increasing role
China Japan Capacity
© OECD/IEA 2013
increasing role
Project timing and cost management: will we ever hear good news?will we ever hear good news?
4 500USD/tonne Investment costs of LNG projects
2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000
0 500
1 000 1 500 2 000
0
Completed project Project under construction Cost increase after FID
Persistent cost inflation and oil indexed contracts put LNG
© OECD/IEA 2013
Persistent cost inflation and oil‐indexed contracts put LNG at a disadvantage to coal across Asia
Projects in advanced stage could transform the US into the number 3 LNG exporter (after Qatar and Australia)
50
60
iCameron
BCM
40
50
to Japan Cove Point
RussiaCameronContract signed
20
30
DOE
Freeport
Egypt
Algeria
10
20ApprovedSabine
Pass
Oman
Yemen
0Projects with DOE approval or signed export contracts LNG from other countries
Oman
© OECD/IEA 2013
Japanese utilities have signed contracts equivalent to the post‐Fukushima demand increase
Gas can’t beat coal unless it beats it in China
700
MtoeFive year incremental consumption
500
600(MTCR2012, MTGM2013)
300
400
100
200
0China RoW
Coal Natural gas
© OECD/IEA 2013
China: air quality is emerging as the key question and gas is the answerquestion and gas is the answer
Every year till 2018
New gas heating in 3 5 New gas heating in 3.5 million homes
7 million tons of industrial coal consumption replaced by gasby gas
A new CCGT in every 6 weeks (but a new coal
)plant every week)
China adds the combined gas demand of Germany,
© OECD/IEA 2013
France and Belgium in 5 years, equivalent to 27% of global demand growth
Chinese non‐conventional gas developments can not keep up with demand
•Complex geology•Population density inPopulation density in Sichuan, water scarcity in Tarim/Ordos•Open regulatory issues•Open regulatory issues•Large investments in coal gasification (25 bcm by 2018)
China adds almost the gas output of the Netherlands, but with only 100 shale wells so far the shale ramp up is
© OECD/IEA 2013
with only 100 shale wells so far the shale ramp‐up is beyond 2020
China adds the current German imports to its import needimports to its import need
Myanmar imports remain upstreamremain upstream constrained
Russian imports Russian imports unlikely before 2020
Central Asia: Central Asia: expanding infrastructure but high prices
China absorbs all the production increase in Central Asia
© OECD/IEA 2013
China absorbs all the production increase in Central Asia and one third of the global increase of LNG supply
Russian gas: the East is the manifest destiny?destiny?
•Production constrained by EU and domestic demand•Surging independent production backed by NGLs
Source: Gazprom
© OECD/IEA 2013
•Asian exports depend on capital‐intensive infrastructure
Japan: nuclear restoration stabilizes LNG demand and eliminates demand rationingg
400
Gas fired and nuclear power generation in Japan, historical and IEA assumptionsTWh
300
350
200
250
gas
nuclear
50
100
150
0
50
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© OECD/IEA 2013
Projected nuclear restoration is equivalent to a 45 billion dollars Australian LNG project
Policy‐driven decommissioning of old coal plants enables gas to recoverp g
Gas plant utilization remains below the level
© OECD/IEA 2013
Gas plant utilization remains below the level expected at the time of investment
Broad range of obstacles to shale developmentdevelopment
© OECD/IEA 2013
Shale gas in Europe: ramping up by a factor of 100?
80Shale well drilling
201360
40
202012
0
Poland Eagle Ford in a typical week in 2012
© OECD/IEA 2013
Natural gas in transport has a bigger impact on oil demand than biofuels and electric cars combined
Traditionally concentrated in Iran, Pakistan, India, Argentina and Brazil
Shale gas revolution in the US
d d Stranded gas resources
Oil dependency concerns
Emission advantages
© OECD/IEA 2013
Transport sector use absorbs 10% of the growth of gas production
US: rolling out the infrastructure Increasing market share
for CNG buses
B d f LNG Broad range of LNG trucks is becoming available
Large investments in infrastructure
T h l i l Technological progress in refilling and small scale liquefaction
Source: Clean Energy Fuels
Watch out for railroadsSource: Clean Energy Fuels
© OECD/IEA 2013
Due to infrastructure costs, after the rollout, the wholesale gas price will have little impact on competitiveness
Despite import dependency and slow ramp up of shale, China goes for gas in transportp , g g p
Concerns about particulate emissionsparticulate emissions
Large concentrated mass transit systemsmass transit systems
Simultaneous rollout of pipeline andof pipeline and refilling infrastructure
© OECD/IEA 2013
The ramp‐up of gas as a transport fuel in China is 4 times the growth of the US
Launch Event: St PetersburgLaunch Event: St Petersburg International Economic Forum
Maria van der Hoeven
IEA Executive Director
© OECD/IEA 2013