Stapleton Expansion Forecasted Enrollment Growth & Capacity – detailed view Note: this is a very detailed explanation of how DPS and its community partners come up with forecasts of students we need to expect to serve in Stapleton in future years

April 25, 2013

1

Goals & Key Questions

Goals in developing forecasts (for Stapleton and for Denver)

• Accurately forecast the number of seats needed to accommodate growth

• Identify challenges with enough lead time to be able to organize solutions

Key questions

• What is the current state of DPS capacity in Stapleton?

• What methodology and inputs does DPS use in forecasting?

• What is the build-out for Stapleton / Northfield housing?

• What is the forecast for Stapleton?

• Will my child be guaranteed a seat in Northfield?

2

Context Setting: more than doubling capacity available in Stapleton in next 2 years

3

* Note that added capacity figure is only newly constructed capacity and does not include capacity in Smiley

2,361

4,811

Current capacity inStapleton schools

Capacity by 2015, afterconstruction*

Seats

$86 Million of investment 2,550 seats

Eastbridge: 550 seats in 2014 Cons. Green: 1,000 seats in 2014 Northfield: 1,000 seats in 2015

Context setting: number of students living in Stapleton by year

• This excludes students who attend out of district or a private school (about 13% of the total elementary students in Stapleton). Includes students attending any DPS school

• For reference, currently about 20% of Stapleton residents choice out of Westerly Creek, Roberts, and Swigert to another DPS school

4

2573

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

October Count Enrollment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Enrollment Growth Rate

Summary Methodology and Variables

5

Number of Units Variable

Data Source

1 2

Forest City City of Denver Permits

Home Type

Single Family

Townhouse

Apartments

3

DPS Student Yield per Home Type

2010 Census / DPS Enrollment

4

Age of Student

2010 Census / DPS Enrollment

Elementary

Middle

High

Forest City City of Denver Permits

Unit Count: Development nearly finished south of I-70

• The number of units sold North of I-70 depends on the housing market and the product type. We assume 400+ units sold each year going forward

• The single biggest driver of DPS enrollment growth is single-family new home construction. • Recent estimates from Forest City (Feb 2013) indicate that the remaining units South will be sold in 2013

6

185

568 573

773

634

419

322

238 195

226

300

205

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Single-Family Home Closures by Year: South of I-70

1

# Units

3 4 2

Red: units South of I-70 – total at build-out 5,800 Blue: units North of I-70 – total at build-out 5,000-6,000

Development finished and planned south of I-70

• Type of unit count matters because the majority of the students are coming from single-family detached units • Unit types north of I-70 are projected to be similar to those south of I-70 • Data source: residential units and sales from Forest City (updated Feb 2013)

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Total Units South of I-70 (data from Forest City)

Residential Units

Type Closed To Sell Total

Single family 3,184 205 3,389

Multi-family 1,542 191 1,733

Apartments 493 0 493

Affordable 152 0 152

Total 5,371 396 5,767

2 3 4 1

59% 30%

8%

3%

Single Family Multi-Family

Apartments

Affordable

Unit Type

1

Overview of the Yield Metric

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2 3 4 1

Unit Type

1

No kids 3 year old Pregnant

No kids

2 year old Pregnant

3rd Grader 1st Grader

6th Grader & 4th Grader in Private School

3rd Grader Kinder

No kids

5th Grader 2nd Grader 3 year old Pregnant

Age # Kids Count in

Yield?

1 1 -

2 1 -

3 2 -

Pre-K 0 0

Kinder 1 1

1st Grader 1 1

2nd Grader 1 1

3rd Grader 2 2

4th Grader 1* 0

5th Grader 1 1

6th Grader 1* 0

1 year old

10 homes

“If there are so many kids on our block, why is the DPS yield so low?” Only Pre-K – 12 Students attending a DPS school count towards the yield

6 DPS students = .60 Yield

* Private school does not count in DPS yield

Yields by Residential Unit Type

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2

Yield

3 4 1

• In planning seats, DPS projects Stapleton single-family yields 20-40% higher than Highlands Ranch and other neighborhoods, which is an aggressive assumption

• For Denver County the student yield for all residential units is 0.26, for Stapleton we are assuming up to three times that yield

• As of the last census, roughly 87% of Stapleton-area elementary children attended DPS schools, meaning that 13% of students attended private school or another district. We have assumed 90% capture rates for the other developments

• DPS-wide 84% attend a DPS school. In more affluent communities such as Cory Merrill, the capture rate across grades is as low as 63%

Yield: Number of DPS students (Pre-K – 12) living per unit, regardless of which DPS school they attend

0.6

0.68

0.77 0.83

0.95

0.13 0.15 0.16 0.19 0.2

0.23 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.24

0.4 0.45

0.51 0.56

0.64

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2009 2010 2011 2012 Peak

Single-Family Multi-Family Apartments All Types

0.71 0.78 0.75

0.81 0.79

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

Student Yields: All Closed Stapleton Units Stapleton Development Comparable Single Family Home Student Yields

.95 -1.14

.64-.76

Highlands Ranch

Indications that kinder yields from most mature filings are peaking

• Filing 2 (Aviator Pool area) and Filing 6 (Puddle Jumper Pool area) are the areas that Forest City developed first and are typical of the unit mix of the rest of Stapleton.

• Even at full build-out, 50% of single family homes in filing 2 do not have any kids in DPS • Affordable housing apartments have an average student yield of 0.61. All data based on City of Denver permit data, DPS enrollment and Forest City filings

10

78 82

100

112

88 95

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Total Kinder living in filings 2 and 6

Yields for the most mature filings are increasing at a decreasing rate . . . . . . And Kinder students are peaking

2

Yield

3 4 1

0.67 0.76

0.85 0.90

0.14 0.19 0.16 0.17

0.39 0.46 0.49

0.54

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

2009 2010 2011 2012

Filings 2 and 6

Single-Family Multi_Family Apts All Home Types

240 257

275 295

253 260

216

179 163

136

87 83

46 56 63 42 40

26 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

<1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

2010 Census by Age

• A significant data point to the belief that South Stapleton yields will max out in the next couple of years is because there are few homes left to sell and we are now seeing Kindergartners from the 2008-2010 timeframe

• We have seen the decrease in new home construction play out in the 2010 forecast numbers. The largest population for children under 18 was in the 3 year old age group.

Link between home sales and age of children

185

568 573

773

634

419

322

238 195

226

300

205

0

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Families start to grow soon after moving in, with students matriculating to DPS 5 years later

2

Grade

3 4 1

Home sales in South Stapleton

240 257

275 295

253 260

216

179 163

136

87 83

46 56 63 42 40

26 0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

<1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

2010 Census by Age

When do we believe Kinder will peak for all of South Stapleton?

• Student yields are driven by number of homes

• Given that peak home sales (south) were in 2005, we believe we are at or near peak Kinder enrollment in 2013 - 2015

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2

Grade

3 4 1

160 173

261 265

331

374

425 410 400

370 350

325 325

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Kinder in South Stapleton Attending any DPS school

Percentage of students by education level in Stapleton compared to DPS averages (DPS data)

Year ES MS HS 2008 78% 11% 11% 2009 79% 11% 10% 2010 77% 12% 11% 2011 77% 13% 10% 2012 75% 16% 10% DPS Average 56% 20% 24%

How will the students move through the grades going forward?

• We expect the distribution of students within Stapleton to eventually realign to percentages closer to the DPS averages.

• The key question here is: how quickly will this happen? Will we see disproportionate percentages of MS and HS students in the meantime?

• In DPS we also tend to see a trend where we have more Kindergartners than 9th graders in our schools. There are two core reasons for this: • More students attend non-DPS schools for middle and high school than elementary. The

district capture rates are: 86% in ES, 83% in MS, and 72% in HS • Families tend to move out by the time their students get to high school age. Most recent

data shows that 9th grade classes are about 80-85% as big as Kinder classes, district-wide • The key question is: what will be the trend for Stapleton?

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2

Grade

3 4 1

3 Behavioral scenarios were developed to project future enrollment; have planned for Stapleton having significantly more students than other family-oriented developments

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A

B

C

Assumed Family Behaviors What you have to believe for this

scenario to play out Implications

- Every family with kindergartner will stay living in Stapleton until high school age

- Every family stays with DPS - Every student wants Northfield HS

- , 60% more students than Highlands Ranch and 80% more than Green Valley Ranch

- Established trends where 9th grade classes are 80-85% of Kinder classes are broken

- Peak demand near 2030 of roughly 2,200 HS students

- Campus will contain 2,300 seats, so there is still adequate capacity

- Above average (90%) number of families with Kindergartners stay in Stapleton until HS age

- Every family stays with DPS - Every student wants Northfield HS

- 40% more students than we are seeing from Highlands Ranch

- Peak demand in year 2030 of roughly 1,700 students

- Peak demand from South Stapleton in 2025 of 1,600 students

- Average (80%) number of families with Kindergartners stay until HS

- Average # of families leave DPS by high school

- Slightly more students than Highlands Ranch

- Some families move out as their students become HS age

- Expect to need to serve about 1,100 HS students at peak demand

• We believe scenario B likely overestimates the number of students that will need to be served but is the most likely scenario to play out over time based on today’s data

• In all scenarios we: – Assume 400+ home sales per year North of I-70 and similar though more accelerated build out than South Stapleton

– Assume that in South Stapleton we will see about 300-350 Kindergartners after peak (2016 and on)

Peak Period Analysis: Scenario A

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

3 4 5 6

15

Age

2013 DPS Population Snapshot

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

15 16 17 18Age

2030 DPS Population Snapshot

100% of Stapleton families remain in the neighborhood with high school-age children (DPS typical is 80% - 85%)

Northfield families move in with children that are 5+ years old (roughly 400 students, aggressive compared with South Stapleton)

100% of Stapleton families keep their children in DPS schools (average is 88% of families in DPS for elementary stay for HS)

All neighborhood students wish to attend Northfield HS (no students choice to DSA, DSST, East, etc.)

Behavioral Assumptions

1,609 Students 2,235 Students

Every one of the four behavioral assumptions is without any precedent in the metro area, making this scenario extremely unlikely

Even if every one of these assumptions happened, there is still adequate Northfield capacity for the 2030 peak period

HS Enrollment Analysis: Current 3rd – 6th Graders

313

237 198 196

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

3 4 5 6

16

Current Grade

2012 October Count Stapleton Boundary Students*

944 Students

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

2015 2016 2017 2018

Phase I capacity

Potential High School Enrollment Build

944 Students

Behavioral Assumptions

All families remain living in Stapleton and remain with DPS All students wish to attend this high school (no students want to attend DSA, DSST, East, etc.)

*Note that these boundary totals will not match current enrollment at Stapleton schools, because those include students from other neighborhoods that are “choicing-in” Numbers include students in portion Stapleton boundary West of Quebec and south of 23rd.

Adequate Capacity?

243 277 321 443

519 638

798 941

1,112 1,223

1,618

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

DPS HS Students in Stapleton; Northfield Capacity

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

Anticipated to have enough HS seats on the campus for all students, even if all Stapleton students want to attend

• Scenario A makes several extremely aggressive assumptions that have no precedent within the entire metro area or any other developments with significant numbers of students. Even with these assumptions in place, there are still enough Northfield seats

• HS demand from South Stapleton peaks in 2025; The model assumes an aggressive build-out for North Stapleton both in terms of units and the ages of children within those units. 17

1,000 seats

2,300 seats, planned

Peak: 1,795

Peak: 1,350

Peak: 2,235

Peak from South Stapleton in about

2025

Closing Thought

Question: If I remain living in Stapleton, will my child be guaranteed a seat at this high school, whether it is 5 years, 10 years, or 20 years from now?

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Yes!

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Appendix

Appendix: Where Stapleton residents are attending for 6th grade next year

• Only 58% of Stapleton residents chose their guaranteed options of McAuliffe or Bill Roberts.

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We believe that scenario B is the most likely, though may be aggressive

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2

Grade

3 4 1

4,465

4,105

3,700

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Total Students South

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

• Note that the number of HS students from South Stapleton peaks in about 2025

Appendix: Putting North and South together

22

7,177

6,483

5,710

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035

Total Students North & South, forecast

Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C

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Appendix: assumed sales and yield growth in North Stapleton

YieldSFD SFA Apts Total

2013 100 0 350 450 0.20

2014 250 75 0 325 0.25

2015 450 100 0 550 0.30

2016 475 100 0 575 0.35

2017 475 100 0 575 0.40

2018 450 75 0 525 0.45

Total 2,200 450 350 3,000

Closings

• Note: If Forest City develops the same number of apartment north of I-70 as south of I-70 we can expect an additional 300 units. This would add approximately 50 additional students.

• We are assuming that housing in North Stapleton will generate students faster than it did in South Stapleton because Stapleton is much more of a known entity and schools are already planned (e.g. year 1 (2013) yields North are similar to those seen in 2005 in Stapleton (2-3 years into development)

• We also assume very high weight towards elementary age students, mirroring what we saw in South Stapleton

Peak Period Analysis: Scenario B

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

3 4 5 6

24

Age

2013 DPS Population Snapshot

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

15 16 17 18Age

2025 DPS Population Snapshot

90% of Stapleton families remain in the neighborhood with high school-age children (DPS typical is 80% - 85%) Northfield families move in with children that are 5+ years old (rarely seen in Stapleton) All current DPS students remain DPS students (typically 10%-point capture rate drop from ES to HS) All neighborhood students wish to attend Northfield HS (no students choice to DSA, DSST, East, etc.)

Actions

1,609 Students 1,618 Students

* Roughly 400 South Stapleton students will leave DPS by high school, with 400 additional high school age students coming from North Stapleton