The Importance The Importance of Trends in of Trends in

Business Business PlanningPlanning

TAGTAG October 2, 2008October 2, 2008

Somebody wasn’t paying Somebody wasn’t paying attentionattention

““Everything that can be Everything that can be invented has been inventedinvented has been invented””

Charles Duell, Commissioner U.S. Patent Charles Duell, Commissioner U.S. Patent Office-1899 Office-1899

(Recommended that the US patent office be (Recommended that the US patent office be shut down)shut down)

QuestionQuestion ““Why don’t the railroads own the Why don’t the railroads own the

truck lines, bus lines and truck lines, bus lines and airlines?”airlines?” They are in the same businessThey are in the same business Trends in disruptive technologies Trends in disruptive technologies

were evidentwere evident Consumer trends were evidentConsumer trends were evident

Question Question Why has Atlanta based Cox Why has Atlanta based Cox

Enterprises/Communications evolved in the Enterprises/Communications evolved in the following way?following way? Newspapers in the 1800sNewspapers in the 1800s Radio Stations in the 1920sRadio Stations in the 1920s Broadcast Television Stations in the 1940sBroadcast Television Stations in the 1940s Cable TV Systems in the 1970sCable TV Systems in the 1970s Cable Programming Services (Discovery) in the 1980sCable Programming Services (Discovery) in the 1980s Internet/Mobile Capabilities in the PresentInternet/Mobile Capabilities in the Present

Each segment in the same businessEach segment in the same business The trends in disruptive technologies were The trends in disruptive technologies were

evidentevident Changing consumers trends were evident Changing consumers trends were evident

AnswersAnswers Most businessesMost businesses

Know what businesses/markets they are in and what Know what businesses/markets they are in and what market segments they are targeting. market segments they are targeting. Some do not.Some do not.

Winning BusinessesWinning Businesses On an ongoing basis have an understanding of where On an ongoing basis have an understanding of where

their core businesses/markets/segments are goingtheir core businesses/markets/segments are going Study and follow trends in spaces tangential to their Study and follow trends in spaces tangential to their

core marketscore markets Continually are paying attention (Unlike Mr. Duell)Continually are paying attention (Unlike Mr. Duell)

OthersOthers Live in the presentLive in the present Do not take the time to collect and assess trend dataDo not take the time to collect and assess trend data Avoid/are in denial about what is coming around the Avoid/are in denial about what is coming around the

cornercorner See only part of what is coming around the cornerSee only part of what is coming around the corner

In which category is your business?In which category is your business?

What is a trend?What is a trend? A trend is A trend is

A pattern and general accumulation A pattern and general accumulation of data points and information that of data points and information that indicates a general progression or a indicates a general progression or a direction that becomes the basis of direction that becomes the basis of an estimation and hypothesis of the an estimation and hypothesis of the futurefuture

Where are your markets Where are your markets going?going?

Understanding trends and Understanding trends and opportunity related to trends opportunity related to trends particularly applies to start up particularly applies to start up companies.companies.Investors are attracted to where Investors are attracted to where your market and your company isyour market and your company is todaytoday but they make their bets on but they make their bets on where your market and where where your market and where your company will beyour company will be tomorrowtomorrow

VideoVideo

No Single Trend Drives The No Single Trend Drives The Future Of Your BusinessFuture Of Your Business

Recognize that the future of your business is part of Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-systeman eco-system of of trends that interact with one anothertrends that interact with one another

A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends create the futuretrends create the future

Key trends that interact with one anotherKey trends that interact with one another SocietalSocietal Technology/Disruptive TechnologyTechnology/Disruptive Technology Customers’ businesses/marketsCustomers’ businesses/markets SuppliersSuppliers EconomicEconomic PoliticalPolitical The environmentThe environment Government and RegulatoryGovernment and Regulatory

Some say in today’s world you must think about the Some say in today’s world you must think about the future of everythingfuture of everything

Look for the super-connections of trendsLook for the super-connections of trends

The Record/CD IndustryThe Record/CD Industry ““Why don’t the record/CD companies Why don’t the record/CD companies

own MP3 technology?”own MP3 technology?” They didn’t follow a few technology They didn’t follow a few technology

trends occurring outside their industrytrends occurring outside their industry Home Computer OwnershipHome Computer Ownership Increasing usage of the internetIncreasing usage of the internet Increasing broadband connectivityIncreasing broadband connectivity Generational change vis a vis technologyGenerational change vis a vis technology (Lawyers tripping over protecting copyrights)(Lawyers tripping over protecting copyrights)

The music industry has evolved from The music industry has evolved from being a provider of physical products to being a provider of physical products to a service industrya service industry

Demographic Trend:Demographic Trend: The The Aging PopulationAging Population

Largest consumer market segment of the Largest consumer market segment of the future will be retired peoplefuture will be retired people Several major influential counties are Several major influential counties are

growing older quickly: USA, Japan, growing older quickly: USA, Japan, Germany, Italy, Russia, China (due to its Germany, Italy, Russia, China (due to its scale) will soon see their respective baby scale) will soon see their respective baby boomers reach retirement ageboomers reach retirement age

In the USA this will be the largest generation In the USA this will be the largest generation of retirees in historyof retirees in history

These retirees will live longer than any other These retirees will live longer than any other generation in historygeneration in history Certain forecasts say that in 2025 25% of the US Certain forecasts say that in 2025 25% of the US

population will be over 100 years of agepopulation will be over 100 years of age

Where do Technology Evolution Where do Technology Evolution and This Demographic Trend and This Demographic Trend

Intersect?Intersect? Significant opportunities exist for new Significant opportunities exist for new

products and services targeted at seniors products and services targeted at seniors Home/Hotel design (stoves, microwaves, bathrooms)Home/Hotel design (stoves, microwaves, bathrooms) Food productsFood products Automotive designAutomotive design Financial servicesFinancial services Aids to ConnectivityAids to Connectivity Aid to helping seniors with mobility Aid to helping seniors with mobility In-home/serve monitoring/sensors/servicesIn-home/serve monitoring/sensors/services EntertainmentEntertainment TourismTourism Other?Other?

Are there opportunities here for your Are there opportunities here for your business?business?

Ripple Impacts of the Ripple Impacts of the TrendTrend

Most active retired generation in historyMost active retired generation in history Many retirees will seek part-time work, new Many retirees will seek part-time work, new

careers and news ways to contribute to society careers and news ways to contribute to society Boomers will be pre-occupied with maintaining their Boomers will be pre-occupied with maintaining their

health and demanding better services from health and demanding better services from healthcare (But they will be aging-arthritic bones, healthcare (But they will be aging-arthritic bones, blurry eyes, mental accuity)…….blurry eyes, mental accuity)…….

Eldercare will become a larger issue than childcareEldercare will become a larger issue than childcare Assisted livingAssisted living NursingNursing HospiceHospice Family assisted Family assisted

Key opportunities: keeping older people mobile, Key opportunities: keeping older people mobile, nourished, healthy, entertained and connected to nourished, healthy, entertained and connected to societysociety

A broader A broader unintendedunintended consequenceconsequence of the trend of the trend

Employers will need to replace millions of skilled workersEmployers will need to replace millions of skilled workers A global talent war will emerge for skilled workersA global talent war will emerge for skilled workers In US, Japan, Europe, and Russia In US, Japan, Europe, and Russia there will not be enough there will not be enough

young people in the work force to fill these jobsyoung people in the work force to fill these jobs and to and to support social programs for the elderlysupport social programs for the elderly

Population trends don’t support this Population trends don’t support this (14MM worker deficit in the US in 2015)(14MM worker deficit in the US in 2015) Increased immigration into US will be required to keep up with demandIncreased immigration into US will be required to keep up with demand Hispanics and women will dominate the future US workforceHispanics and women will dominate the future US workforce In 2025 2 of 3 workers in America will be a womanIn 2025 2 of 3 workers in America will be a woman

The Middle East and Africa will have very high The Middle East and Africa will have very high percentage of people under 24 years of age (60%)percentage of people under 24 years of age (60%)

There are There are few or no jobs waiting for themfew or no jobs waiting for them in their own countries in their own countries The US, Japan, Europe and Russia will be competing for The US, Japan, Europe and Russia will be competing for

these workersthese workers These three trends will not subside for decadesThese three trends will not subside for decades What does this mean for your business (threat or What does this mean for your business (threat or

opportunity)?opportunity)?

Further RippleFurther Ripple Further as boomer retirees age and pass away the Further as boomer retirees age and pass away the

largest transfer of wealth in history will occurlargest transfer of wealth in history will occur $18 trillion in assets will transfer from $18 trillion in assets will transfer from

Boomers and transfer to Generation XBoomers and transfer to Generation X And generation Xers are worse at saving than And generation Xers are worse at saving than

any earlier generation…….any earlier generation……. Where do the opportunities lay in this Where do the opportunities lay in this

intersection?intersection? Will Generation Xers become the next wave of Will Generation Xers become the next wave of

angel investors?angel investors? Great business in 2020-2030: Great business in 2020-2030:

mortician/crematoriummortician/crematorium Boomers will be dying by the millionsBoomers will be dying by the millions

BRICBRIC(Brazil, Russia, India, (Brazil, Russia, India,

China)China) 2020thth Century: Century of America Century: Century of America 2121stst Century: Century of BRIC Century: Century of BRIC In the future these four countries have the potential to dominate In the future these four countries have the potential to dominate

the world (they have and will have 40% of the population of the the world (they have and will have 40% of the population of the earthearth

Explosive demand for new products and servicesExplosive demand for new products and services Inexpensive, quality productionInexpensive, quality production Dynamically growing consumer marketsDynamically growing consumer markets

China and India (Chindia) have 1/3 of the current world population China and India (Chindia) have 1/3 of the current world population and will dominate world GDP over at least the next 40 yearsand will dominate world GDP over at least the next 40 years

(A high percentage of these populations is under 35)(A high percentage of these populations is under 35) India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by

20302030 Chindia graduates 500,000 engineering students per year (the Chindia graduates 500,000 engineering students per year (the

USA graduates 60,000/year)USA graduates 60,000/year) China has 5X more business schools and 10X more engineering China has 5X more business schools and 10X more engineering

schools than the US and Europe combinedschools than the US and Europe combined Cars in total world 2007: 795MMCars in total world 2007: 795MM Cars in China 2030: 1.1BBCars in China 2030: 1.1BB

The Age of Anxiety and The Age of Anxiety and UncertaintyUncertainty

TerrorismTerrorism Natural disasters/Global WarmingNatural disasters/Global Warming War/Geo-political instabilityWar/Geo-political instability The credit crisis (and its ripple effect)The credit crisis (and its ripple effect) Identity Theft (is growing exponentiallyIdentity Theft (is growing exponentially Mistrust of security on the internetMistrust of security on the internet Many people are confused, stressed and searching for Many people are confused, stressed and searching for

something to believe in.something to believe in. Ironically, due the related uncertainty driven by the Ironically, due the related uncertainty driven by the

above, consumers need to escape and are increasinglyabove, consumers need to escape and are increasingly turning to religion and spirituality and this has become turning to religion and spirituality and this has become a trenda trend

Opportunities exist related to security in its broadest Opportunities exist related to security in its broadest definitiondefinition

The trade-off of individual rights and security will The trade-off of individual rights and security will become an increasing issuebecome an increasing issue

Personal ControlPersonal Control Remote ControlRemote Control PVRs/TIVOPVRs/TIVO The internetThe internet WiFi (mobility)WiFi (mobility) Self service revolution has begunSelf service revolution has begun

Touch screensTouch screens Kiosks (services/products)Kiosks (services/products)

ATMs, Retail, Airports, HealthcareATMs, Retail, Airports, Healthcare Trend: addressing essential convenience Trend: addressing essential convenience

with speedwith speed What’s next?What’s next?

The environmentThe environment Air pollutionAir pollution Destruction of rain forestsDestruction of rain forests Global warmingGlobal warming Accumulation of chemical pollutants in Accumulation of chemical pollutants in

soil and watersoil and water Diminishment of fresh water tablesDiminishment of fresh water tables

Sources will not meet demandSources will not meet demand Species extinctionSpecies extinction Over-fishing of oceansOver-fishing of oceans The calamity has created opportunityThe calamity has created opportunity

Dawn of Conscious Dawn of Conscious Capitalism and the Values-Capitalism and the Values-

Driven ConsumerDriven Consumer Trends of “Organic” and “Environment Friendly”Trends of “Organic” and “Environment Friendly” Trend of “Clean and Green”/”Sustainable-Renewable’Trend of “Clean and Green”/”Sustainable-Renewable’ Energy sources (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, etc)Energy sources (Solar, Wind, Ethanol, etc) Hybrid/Electric vehiclesHybrid/Electric vehicles Natural FoodsNatural Foods Green BuildingsGreen Buildings Organic ProductsOrganic Products Zero-energy homesZero-energy homes Eco-tourismEco-tourism Energy friendly appliancesEnergy friendly appliances Alternative medicinesAlternative medicines Socially responsible/”Green” investingSocially responsible/”Green” investing (E-Bay: “World of Good” products with (E-Bay: “World of Good” products with

social/environmental impactsocial/environmental impact

The internetThe internet The killer-app for the internet is peopleThe killer-app for the internet is people Enabling access to other peopleEnabling access to other people Numerous business models existNumerous business models exist Few are successful….Few are successful…. But web 2.0 is the future of advertisingBut web 2.0 is the future of advertising

Highly targeted relationship marketingHighly targeted relationship marketing Leveraging the extraordinary flexibility of digital technologyLeveraging the extraordinary flexibility of digital technology SEO is keySEO is key

By 2020 the internet will be wireless and pervasive, with By 2020 the internet will be wireless and pervasive, with access anytime, anywhere and it will be free to everyoneaccess anytime, anywhere and it will be free to everyone

By 2020 the telephone and TV will be fully integrated By 2020 the telephone and TV will be fully integrated into the internetinto the internet

By 2020 three billion people will be using the internet By 2020 three billion people will be using the internet for purposes of commercefor purposes of commerce

The business model of charging for internet access is The business model of charging for internet access is temporarytemporary

IT-1IT-1 Moore’s law will continue for at least the next Moore’s law will continue for at least the next

10 years10 years (Transistor density will double every 18 (Transistor density will double every 18

months while price remains at parity)months while price remains at parity) Power of home computers will dramatically Power of home computers will dramatically

growgrow Opportunities exist related to small, Opportunities exist related to small,

inexpensive, low power, low maintenance, inexpensive, low power, low maintenance, disposable computersdisposable computers

Future computers will have become wearable Future computers will have become wearable devicesdevices

Web 2.0 will be increasingly applied on the Web 2.0 will be increasingly applied on the commercial sidecommercial side

IT-2IT-2 Ever-increasing linkage of international/global supply Ever-increasing linkage of international/global supply

chains linkingchains linking CreatorsCreators ManufacturersManufacturers DistributorsDistributors SellersSellers

Capture orders at one end of the world, fulfill orders Capture orders at one end of the world, fulfill orders on the other, and find production somewhere on the other, and find production somewhere else…….on demand else…….on demand

They will be automated and internet enabledThey will be automated and internet enabled New processes and technology will emerge that will New processes and technology will emerge that will

enable the global, fast, inexpensive and on-demand enable the global, fast, inexpensive and on-demand production and distribution of goodsproduction and distribution of goods

Collaborative virtual workspaces will emergeCollaborative virtual workspaces will emerge By 2020 every manufactured product will be on the By 2020 every manufactured product will be on the

internetinternet

NanotechnologyNanotechnology The most profound and exciting new technology waveThe most profound and exciting new technology wave

Nano-based products could change everythingNano-based products could change everything Nanometer is a measurement of one-billionth of a meterNanometer is a measurement of one-billionth of a meter The manipulation of matter at the atomic scale, producing new The manipulation of matter at the atomic scale, producing new

drugs, fuels, materials, and machinesdrugs, fuels, materials, and machines Design of materials from the molecular level to be exactly what Design of materials from the molecular level to be exactly what

we wantwe want The manipulation of matter on all levelsThe manipulation of matter on all levels

Increasing applications driven by nanotechnology will touch Increasing applications driven by nanotechnology will touch beyond its implication for sciencebeyond its implication for science FabricsFabrics Precious MineralsPrecious Minerals RobotsRobots EnergyEnergy ManufacturingManufacturing MilitaryMilitary RoboticsRobotics

Billions being spent on R&DBillions being spent on R&D

Biotech/NeurotechBiotech/Neurotech The unlocking of DNA, life sciences, and the impact of genomics on The unlocking of DNA, life sciences, and the impact of genomics on

health care, life extension, and medicine.health care, life extension, and medicine. Specialized DNASpecialized DNA GenomicsGenomics

Gene restoration therapyGene restoration therapy Genomic disease preventionGenomic disease prevention Create safer foods and drugs/customized to the person’s geneticsCreate safer foods and drugs/customized to the person’s genetics

Bio-engineered organs Bio-engineered organs Longevity medicinesLongevity medicines

Optimized immuno defenses/Anti aging drugsOptimized immuno defenses/Anti aging drugs Stem cell technologyStem cell technology Organ engineeringOrgan engineering

Stem-cell therapy for bio-restoration of memory and personalityStem-cell therapy for bio-restoration of memory and personality Nano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and restore capabilitiesNano-bio devices that heal, prevent illness, and restore capabilities New forms of implants (microelectronic medical implements)New forms of implants (microelectronic medical implements) Medical DevicesMedical Devices Intersects with demographic trendsIntersects with demographic trends The beginning of the android eraThe beginning of the android era

HealthcareHealthcare Healthcare costs are expected to rise Healthcare costs are expected to rise

8% per year into the future, and is 8% per year into the future, and is expected to doubleexpected to double

By 2020 the USA will be short 200,000 By 2020 the USA will be short 200,000 doctor and 800,000 nursesdoctor and 800,000 nurses

On a continuing basis the US will On a continuing basis the US will compete with Europe and Asia for compete with Europe and Asia for medical talentmedical talent

Healthy lifestyles must be part of the Healthy lifestyles must be part of the futurefuture

Where are the business opportunities?Where are the business opportunities? Self diagnosis?Self diagnosis?

EnergyEnergy Energy issues will become increasingly central to Energy issues will become increasingly central to

consumers, governments, and businesses as we begin to consumers, governments, and businesses as we begin to deplete existing energy sources and place increased deplete existing energy sources and place increased demand on existing energy infrastructuresdemand on existing energy infrastructures

BRIC countries and the Middle East will put enormous BRIC countries and the Middle East will put enormous pressure on global energy supplies and pricingpressure on global energy supplies and pricing

Enormous tension between Russia and the West will emerge Enormous tension between Russia and the West will emerge over energy issues over energy issues

Sustainable/Renewable energy sources will emerge but fuels Sustainable/Renewable energy sources will emerge but fuels will not totally replace emerge fossil fuelswill not totally replace emerge fossil fuels Solar, Wind, Ethanol, BiodeiselSolar, Wind, Ethanol, Biodeisel Many opportunities will emergeMany opportunities will emerge

Hydrogen is the fuel that will drove the middle and latter Hydrogen is the fuel that will drove the middle and latter parts of the 21parts of the 21stst Century Century Most plentiful gas in the universeMost plentiful gas in the universe Highest energy content per unit weight of any known fuelHighest energy content per unit weight of any known fuel It is everywhereIt is everywhere

Media/Communications/Media/Communications/Entertainment-1Entertainment-1

Technology will continue to transform media and entertainmentTechnology will continue to transform media and entertainment Moore’s law of devices:Moore’s law of devices: every year the devices that create, every year the devices that create,

communicate and play digital media get smallercommunicate and play digital media get smaller And they will further enhance mobility/portability (3G)And they will further enhance mobility/portability (3G)

Broadband connectivityBroadband connectivity will evolve to where high quality digital will evolve to where high quality digital video will be sent in real time or faster than real time to video will be sent in real time or faster than real time to consumer devicesconsumer devices

Media is/are converging into one continuous interactive digital Media is/are converging into one continuous interactive digital stream of information and entertainmentstream of information and entertainment

Memory densityMemory density will continue to increase such that consumers will continue to increase such that consumers will have millions of audio and video productswill have millions of audio and video products

Digital camera/editing/switching technologyDigital camera/editing/switching technology will continue to will continue to evolve at consumer prices and will lead to a herefore unseen evolve at consumer prices and will lead to a herefore unseen explosion in creative amateur videos (user-generated video) that explosion in creative amateur videos (user-generated video) that will be distributed via broadbandwill be distributed via broadband

Technology that enhances the consumer entertainment Technology that enhances the consumer entertainment experience in autos, airplanes and boats will emergeexperience in autos, airplanes and boats will emerge

There is a trend toward There is a trend toward virtual realityvirtual reality (escapist trend that is (escapist trend that is driving people to increased church attendance) (2driving people to increased church attendance) (2ndnd life) life)

Technologies will emerge to address thisTechnologies will emerge to address this

Media/Communications/Media/Communications/Entertainment-2Entertainment-2

Media is increasingly becoming personal and participatoryMedia is increasingly becoming personal and participatory The blogosphereThe blogosphere is 60X larger than it was three years ago and is is 60X larger than it was three years ago and is

doubling in size every six monthsdoubling in size every six months Trend toward social/sharing sites will continue to grow (need is to find Trend toward social/sharing sites will continue to grow (need is to find

successful business models)successful business models) You Tube, MySpace, Facebook, Flickr, etc.You Tube, MySpace, Facebook, Flickr, etc.

New web communities are and will be emerging daily New web communities are and will be emerging daily New ways will emerge that will connect people, information, and financial New ways will emerge that will connect people, information, and financial

transactions in real timetransactions in real time By 2020 all e-mail will be multimedia, audio and video streaming enabledBy 2020 all e-mail will be multimedia, audio and video streaming enabled

GamingGaming Integral part of young people’s livesIntegral part of young people’s lives Open source for gaming will emergeOpen source for gaming will emerge Multi-point gaming will surge (extension of community)Multi-point gaming will surge (extension of community)

Gambling on the web is a trendGambling on the web is a trend Traditional television will increasingly need to compete for viewership with Traditional television will increasingly need to compete for viewership with

web sites offering videoweb sites offering video Media brands will blurMedia brands will blur (what is a network?/what is station?)(they have lost (what is a network?/what is station?)(they have lost

relevance)relevance) People watch shows/programs, not channels or networksPeople watch shows/programs, not channels or networks Ex-Real time info networks (CNN, FNN, MSNBC, CNBC, TWC (web Ex-Real time info networks (CNN, FNN, MSNBC, CNBC, TWC (web

scalability)scalability)

Factors that will define the Factors that will define the FutureFuture

Speed and an increasing rate of changeSpeed and an increasing rate of change Same day delivery of everything ( news, emails/instant Same day delivery of everything ( news, emails/instant

messaging, banking, entertainment, self service touch messaging, banking, entertainment, self service touch screens, etc)screens, etc)

Slow is dangerousSlow is dangerous Everything will be more complexEverything will be more complex Surprise will be daily feature of life (the Surprise will be daily feature of life (the

uncertainty trend) uncertainty trend) E.G. the mercurial economyE.G. the mercurial economy

Everything is/will be in a state of fluxEverything is/will be in a state of flux E.G the mercurial economyE.G the mercurial economy

Small companies can react more quickly than big Small companies can react more quickly than big companies to changing trends, especially fast companies to changing trends, especially fast moving trendsmoving trends

Get Started/Get SmarterGet Started/Get SmarterSources of Trend DataSources of Trend Data

Important to obtain credible data/info from accurate sourcesImportant to obtain credible data/info from accurate sources The web. Type in “Trends in X”/”Future Trends of X”The web. Type in “Trends in X”/”Future Trends of X” Magazines about your space and related areasMagazines about your space and related areas Peer-reviewed industry journals (E.G AMA)Peer-reviewed industry journals (E.G AMA)

Avoid biased reports from activist organizationsAvoid biased reports from activist organizations Official reports Official reports

UniversitiesUniversities Government Agencies (National Science Foundation)Government Agencies (National Science Foundation) NGOs NGOs White PapersWhite Papers

Industry analyst reportsIndustry analyst reports Industry forecasts…”By X date X will take place”Industry forecasts…”By X date X will take place” Industry “thought-leaders”Industry “thought-leaders” Industry-specific seminars/conferencesIndustry-specific seminars/conferences Books about trends and the futureBooks about trends and the future Be aware/keep your ears and eyes openBe aware/keep your ears and eyes open Track it/catalog itTrack it/catalog it

TipsTips Start with analysis of your own industryStart with analysis of your own industry Study adjacent industries/industries related to your spaceStudy adjacent industries/industries related to your space Go back 5 years and forward 5-20 yearsGo back 5 years and forward 5-20 years

Assess if the trends are going up or downAssess if the trends are going up or down Is your business targeting a future up market or a future down Is your business targeting a future up market or a future down

market?market? Assess at what stage in the trends you/competitors are operating-Assess at what stage in the trends you/competitors are operating-

todaytoday Accept the trend data with emotional detachmentAccept the trend data with emotional detachment Pay Attention to current and future competitionPay Attention to current and future competition Plan scenariosPlan scenarios Make time to think and to talk about it Make time to think and to talk about it

May be the best time you’ll spend: understanding the current May be the best time you’ll spend: understanding the current and future status of your marketsand future status of your markets

-study one trend each month/have the team work -study one trend each month/have the team work together/lunch/cocktailstogether/lunch/cocktails

Trend spotting should be part of your business strategyTrend spotting should be part of your business strategy Investors are interested in where your business is going/markets Investors are interested in where your business is going/markets

are goingare going

No Single Trend Drives the No Single Trend Drives the Future of Your BusinessFuture of Your Business

Recognize that the future of your business is part of Recognize that the future of your business is part of an eco-system of trends that interact with one an eco-system of trends that interact with one anotheranother

A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces A synergy, an inter-relationship, a fusion of forces and trends, create the futureand trends, create the future

Key Trends that interact with one another:Key Trends that interact with one another: SocietalSocietal Technology/Disruptive TechnologyTechnology/Disruptive Technology Customers’ businesses marketsCustomers’ businesses markets SuppliersSuppliers EconomicEconomic PoliticalPolitical The EnvironmentThe Environment Governement/RegulatoryGovernement/Regulatory

Look for the super-connections of trendsLook for the super-connections of trends

BibliographyBibliography The Extreme FutureThe Extreme Future -James -James

Canton-DuttonCanton-Dutton Future IncFuture Inc -Eric Garland-Amacom -Eric Garland-Amacom Next/NowNext/Now -Salzman and -Salzman and

Matathia-PalgraveMatathia-Palgrave Megatrends 2010Megatrends 2010 –Patricia –Patricia

Aburdene-Hampton RoadsAburdene-Hampton Roads Micro TrendsMicro Trends -Mark Penn-Twelve -Mark Penn-Twelve

(Hachette(Hachette))