Slide 1 Financial Forecasting, Planning, and Budgeting Financial Forecasting: 1. Project sales...
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Transcript of Slide 1 Financial Forecasting, Planning, and Budgeting Financial Forecasting: 1. Project sales...
Slide 1
Financial Forecasting, Planning, and Budgeting Financial Forecasting:
1. Project sales revenues and expenses
2. Estimate current assets and fixed assets necessary to support projected sales
Percent of sales forecast
Slide 2
Percent of Sales Method Suppose this year’s sales will total $32 million Next year, we forecast sales of $40 million Net income should be 5% of sales Dividends should be 50% of earnings
Slide 3
Construction of Forecast Balance Sheet All asset accounts are assumed to vary
proportionally with sales Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses are the
Current Liability accounts that vary with sales directly – remember liabilities and equity are financing sources for a firm
Because of this Accounts Payable and Accrued Expenses are called spontaneous sources of financing
Slide 4
Percent of Sales Method (Continued) This year % of $32m
AssetsCurrent Assets $8m 25%Fixed Assets $16m 50% Total Assets $24mLiab. and EquityAccounts Payable $4m 12.5%Accrued Expenses $4m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/aLong Term Debt $6m n/a Total Liabilities $15mCommon Stock $7m n/aRetained Earnings $2m Equity $9m Total Liab. & Equity $24m
Slide 5
Percent of Sales Method (Continued) Next year % of $40m
AssetsCurrent Assets $10m 25%Fixed Assets $20m 50% Total Assets $30mLiab. and EquityAccounts Payable $5m 12.5%Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/aLong Term Debt $6m n/a Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/aRetained Earnings ??? Equity ??? Total Liab. & Equity
Slide 6
Predicting Retained Earnings Next year’s projected retained earnings = last
year’s $2 million, plus:
$40 million x 0.05 x (1 - 0.50) = $2 million + $1 million = $3million
IncomeNet
DividendsCash 1 x
Sales
IncomeNet x Sales
Slide 7
Predicting Discretionary Financing Needs Next year % of $40m
AssetsCurrent Assets $10m 25%Fixed Assets $20m 50% Total Assets $30mLiab. and EquityAccounts Payable $5m 12.5%Accrued Expenses $5m 12.5%Notes Payable $1m n/aLong Term Debt $6m n/a Total Liabilities $17mCommon Stock $7m n/aRetained Earnings $3m Equity $10m Total Liab. & Equity $27m
How muchDiscretionary
Financing will weNeed?
Slide 8
Predicting Discretionary Financing Needs (Continued)
Discretionary Financing Needed = [Projected Total Assets] – [Projected Total Liabilities] – [Projected Shareholders’ Equity]
Alternatively: DFN = [Projected Total Assets] – [Projected
Liabilities & Shareholders’ Equity] DFN = $30 million – $17 million – $10 million DFN = $3 million in discretionary financing
Slide 9
Predicting Discretionary Financing Needs (Continued)
At this point corporation has to decide how to finance the DFN
The Company can sell Bonds (Long-Term Debt) or Equity
This is why we call Long-Term Debt and Equity as sources of external capital
Note that paid-in capital is the difference between selling price of equity and face value times the number of shares sold
Slide 10
Sustainable Rate of Growth Sustainable rate of growth is the rate the sales can grow
without selling new equity and maintaining debt ratio (this means that if a firm retains earnings it would need to issue new debt to maintain debt ratio)
g* = ROE (1 – b) where
b = dividend payout ratio
(dividends / net income)
ROE = return on equity
(net income / common equity)
Slide 11
Budgets Budget: a forecast of future events Budgets indicate the amount and timing of future
financing needs Budgets provide a basis for taking corrective
action if budgeted and actual figures do not match Budgets provide the basis for performance
evaluation