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Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 1
Dust Modelling Workshop, Reading U., 26 February 2008
Modelling dust aerosols for the ECMWF IFS
J.-J. Morcrette, A. Benedetti, L. Jones, J.W. Kaiser, O. Boucher1, S. Kinne2
ECMWF, Reading; 1 MetOffice, Exeter; 2 Max-Planck Institute, Hamburg
• As part of the GEMS project (Global Environmental Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ
measurements) ECMWF is developing a version of its assimilation/forecast system
including aerosols
• Here emphasis is put on the forward modelling of dust aerosols
• 3-bin representation: 0.03 – 0.55 – 0.9 – 20 mm (representing roughly 10, 20 and 70% of the
mass of dust aerosols)
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 2
Dust production - 1Based loosely on
- Marticorena and Bergametti, 1995
- Ginoux et al., 2001
- Engelstaedter and Washington, 2007
Delineation of areas likely to be sources of dust aerosols by- Soil moisture in first model layer: sm1
- Fraction of bare soil within a model grid: fbs
- Total albedo: a
- UV-vis albedo (< 0.7 m; from MODIS): auv
- Wind at lowest model level (lml = 10m) v
- Wind at lml but including gustiness: vg
- Dust emission potential: dep
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 3
Dust production - 2
Delineation of areas likely to be sources of dust aerosols by:- Lifting threshold speed
lts = f( sm1 , bin mean particle radius)
- Wind factor: v = v or vg
v3 = ( v – lts ) * v2
Two possible formulations:
if ( land .and. v > lts .and. fbs > 0.1) then
if (a < 0.5 .and. 0.08 < auv < 0.5 ) then
flux= dep(i) * auv * v3
endif
endif
if ( land .and. v > lts .and. fbs > 0.1) then
if (sm1 < 0.2 sm1sat) then
flux = C * dep(i) * (1-sm1) * v3
endif
endif
Soil moisture-based
Albedo-based
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 4
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
exlz: 32R2_all_08_playSU_2: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED 8-daySunday 1 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Sunday 1 June 2003 12UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
exnq: 32R2_all_08_playSU_2: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
eysl: 32R2_all_08_playSU_5b: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
ez8f: 32R2_AER_05cA: 3 2 12h-cycling GFED monthFriday 1 June 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Friday 1 June 2007 12UTC Model Level 32 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2Tau 550 nm DU only
“original” June 2003 “original” June 2007
Revised DEP June 2007 Revised DEP + gusts June 2007
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 5
Forward modelling of aerosols As part of the GEMS project, the IFS has been modified to include prognostic aerosols
(sea-salt SS, dust DU, organic OM and black carbon BC, sulphate SU).
Sources for SS and DU are linked to some of the model surface parameters (U10, soil moisture, UVis albedo, stdev orography, snow mask, gustiness).
Sources for OM, BC and SU are taken from climatologies and/or inventories (GFEDm, GFED8d, SPEW, EDGAR databases).
Aerosols are transported by advection, vertical diffusion and convection, and undergo their specific processes, i.e., sedimentation, dry deposition, wet deposition by large-scale and convective precipitation, and for OM and BC hygroscopic effects.
The TL159 L60 model has been simulating aerosols for the 2003-2004 GEMS-AER
reference period (with climatological and 8day OM, BC and SU emissions).
Comparisons with observational data (MODIS, CloudSat/CALIPSO, AERONET).
Since 1 June 2007, the ECMWF operational model is used for experimental near-real time 72-hour aerosol forecasts, at TL159 L91, and without any analysis.
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/inspect/catalog/research/gems/aer/optical_depth/
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 6
An experimental version of ECMWF IFS now produces in near-real time a 72-hour forecast (FC only, no analysis yet) of the total optical depth for an ensemble of aerosols (sea-salt, desert dust, organic matter, black carbon, and sulphate)
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
tau550: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
Total optical depth 550 nm 20080108_00 + 39hr
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 7
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
tau550 SS3b+DU3b: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
“natural” = SS+DU
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
tau550 2OM+2BC+1SU: pre-oper vers.0Tuesday 8 January 2008 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+39 VT: Wednesday 9 January 2008 15UTC Model Level 56 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
“anthropogenic” = OM + BC + SU
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 8
Assessment
Comparison with MODIS-derived aerosol optical depth at 550 nm
Comparison with CALIPSO-derived cloud and aerosol masks
Comparison with AERONET aerosol optical depth at various wavelengths
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 9
MODIS
IFS
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
exlz TotTau: SS3b+DU3b+2OM+2BC+1SU: GFEDv2_8dTuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC Model Level 1 **
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
MODIS July 2003
Sum 12hr-FCs July 2003
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 10
MODIS
IFS
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
exlz TotTau: SS3b+DU3b+2OM+2BC+1SU: GFEDv2_8dThursday 1 January 2004 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Thursday 1 January 2004 12UTC Model Level 1 **
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
MODIS Jan’2004
Sum 12hr-FCs Jan’2004
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 11
8OW 12OW 16OW 20OW 24OW 28OW
50ON 40ON 30ON 20ON 10ON 0O 10OS 20OS 30OS
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070611_00+03h
20
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
480
520
560
600
640
647.1
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
50°N50°N
20°W
20°W
Monday 11 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 12 June 2007 00UTC Model Level 1 * *Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
ECMWF model FC only at TL159 L91
Modis Aqua
MODIS
Orbit
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 12
20OE 18OE 16OE 14OE 12OE 10OE 8OE 6OE 4OE 2OE
20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON 40ON
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°N 20°N
30°N30°N
40°N 40°N
0°
0° 20°E
20°E
Monday 16 July 2007 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+1 VT: Monday 16 July 2007 01UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 13
ECMWF model FC only at TL159 L91
4OW 6OW 8OW 10OW 12OW 14OW 16OW 18OW 20OW
30OS 20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070621_12+03h
40
200
400
549.3
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
20°W
20°W
Thursday 21 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+3 VT: Thursday 21 June 2007 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
Modis Aqua
missing
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 14
ECMWF model FC only at TL159 L91
Modis Aqua
12OW 14OW 16OW 18OW 20OW 22OW 24OW
35OS 30OS 25OS 20OS 15OS 10OS 5OS 0O 5ON 10ON 15ON
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
300
Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070624_12+03h
20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
454.3
30°S30°S
20°S 20°S
10°S10°S
0° 0°
10°N10°N
20°W
20°W
Sunday 24 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+3 VT: Sunday 24 June 2007 15UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 15
ECMWF model FC only at TL159 L91
Modis Aqua
38OW 40OW 42OW 44OW 46OW 48OW 50OW 52OW 54OW
30OS 20OS 10OS 0O 10ON 20ON 30ON 40ON
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100Cloud fraction (blue lines) and Aerosols (grey lines and coulour dots): eybt TL159 L91 20070624_12+06h
20
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
427.4
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
40°W
40°W
Sunday 24 June 2007 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+6 VT: Sunday 24 June 2007 18UTC Model Level 1 **Experimental product
0
0.1
0.17
0.25
0.32
0.39
0.46
0.54
0.61
0.68
0.75
0.83
0.9
3
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 16
July 2007
AERONETModel
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 17
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 18
Comparison Analysis / Forecast
Comparison A/F for DU aerosol type only
Comparison A/F for each MODIS SW wavelength and all tropospheric aerosols
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 1980°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
Tuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
80°S80°S
70°S 70°S
60°S60°S
50°S 50°S
40°S40°S
30°S 30°S
20°S20°S
10°S 10°S
0°0°
10°N 10°N
20°N20°N
30°N 30°N
40°N40°N
50°N 50°N
60°N60°N
70°N 70°N
80°N80°N
160°W
160°W 140°W
140°W 120°W
120°W 100°W
100°W 80°W
80°W 60°W
60°W 40°W
40°W 20°W
20°W 0°
0° 20°E
20°E 40°E
40°E 60°E
60°E 80°E
80°E 100°E
100°E 120°E
120°E 140°E
140°E 160°E
160°E
Tuesday 1 July 2003 06UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 18UTC Model Level 8 **Experimental product
0
0.02
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Forecast DU Analysis DU
Comparison of monthly averaged optical depth of dust for July 2003:for a forecast only (left) and for the analysis system (right)
Comparison Analysis / Forecast
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 20
LOA-AEROCOM_B2000
LSCE-AEROCOM_B2000
GOCART-AEROCOM_B2000
ECMWF-GEMS_AER2003
Watch the scales!
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 21
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 22
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 23
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 24
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 25
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 26
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 27
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 28
Dust Modelling Workshop, 26 Feb’08
Slide 29