Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs · 7/1/2016  · LinkedIn is stickier...

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Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs I wrote a follow-up article to my initiation titled “The ‘Incremental Minute’ Could Introduce MeetMe to 52-Week Highsthat was published on June 1, 2016. MEET has moved 60% higher over the last month and is trading at 4-year highs. On June 27, 2016, MeetMe announced an agreement to acquire Skout. MeetMe’s acquisition of Skout could be an absolute home run that unlocks a multitude of growth levers. I am increasing my price target from $6.50 to $8.00 based on the Skout acquisition, which is expected to close October 1, 2016. Several other material events have occurred since my most recent article, and investors should explore the impact recent events will have on MeetMe. June 2, 2016 – MeetMe announced the opening of an office in Philadelphia through WeWork. June 8, 2016 – Apple and Google announced more favorable economics for app developers driving subscription revenue. June 13, 2016 – LinkedIn agrees to be acquired by Microsoft. June 27, 2016 – MeetMe agrees to acquire Skout. June 29, 2016 – MeetMe announces its inclusion into to Russell 2000 Index that occurred on June 27. MeetMe Opens an Office in Philadelphia On June 2, 2016, MeetMe announced that it is opening an office in Philadelphia. This announcement is the least meaningful of the 5 recent events I will analyze; however, the manner in which MeetMe opened up this office is indicative of management’s respect for investor capital and decision making process. MeetMe chose to partner with WeWork. WeWork rents desks in a community office space through flexible month-to-month office agreements that allow renters to choose from multiple options including hot desks, dedicated desks and private offices. MeetMe’s management could have easily entered into a longer term and more expensive conventional office leasing agreement without too much investor pushback. Instead, CEO Geoff Clark and CFO David Clark decided to rent desks in a community office that I think will increase annual G&A by $100,000-$150,000 and can be closed/exited with monthly notice. The Philadelphia office allows MeetMe to attract and retain top talent that does not want to drive one hour each way to New Hope, PA (MeetMe’s headquarters). Conservative to its core, management is not frivolously spending capital on unnecessary projects, but instead prudently protecting cash generated by the company’s operations. Apple and Google Announce More Favorable Economics for App Developers On June 8, Google and Apple announced a change to their revenue sharing arrangements with app developers, like MeetMe, for subscription revenue. In the past, Apple and Google took 30% of all in-app payments processed through Apple Store or Google Pay. For example, if I purchased a 3 month subscription to MeetMe+ for $18 ($6 per month), Google or Apple would charge $1.80 per transaction or $5.40 in total for processing those payments. Therefore, MeetMe would earn $12.60 of the $18 subscription after paying Apple or Google the in-app payment processing fee. Now, Apple will take a 15% fee (as opposed to 30% historically) and give app developers 85% of in-app payment revenue (as opposed to 70% historically) for subscriptions greater than 1 year in duration. I do not believe that MeetMe will benefit from Apple’s change because MEET does not offer a 1 year or longer subscription. In response to Apple’s move, Google announced that it will take a 15% fee (as opposed to 30% historically) and give app developers 85% of in-app payment revenue (as opposed to 70% historically) for all subscription revenue. Therefore, using the example above, MeetMe will earn $15.30 on an $18 subscription through Google as opposed to earning $12.60 through the previous Google in-app payment processing agreement. The incremental $2.70 savings has a 100% EBITDA contribution margin.

Transcript of Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs · 7/1/2016  · LinkedIn is stickier...

Page 1: Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs · 7/1/2016  · LinkedIn is stickier and has stronger brand awareness than MeetMe, but MeetMe is only trading for 7.5x,

Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs

I wrote a follow-up article to my initiation titled “The ‘Incremental Minute’ Could Introduce MeetMe to 52-Week Highs”

that was published on June 1, 2016. MEET has moved 60% higher over the last month and is trading at 4-year highs. On

June 27, 2016, MeetMe announced an agreement to acquire Skout. MeetMe’s acquisition of Skout could be an absolute

home run that unlocks a multitude of growth levers. I am increasing my price target from $6.50 to $8.00 based on the

Skout acquisition, which is expected to close October 1, 2016. Several other material events have occurred since my

most recent article, and investors should explore the impact recent events will have on MeetMe.

June 2, 2016 – MeetMe announced the opening of an office in Philadelphia through WeWork.

June 8, 2016 – Apple and Google announced more favorable economics for app developers driving subscription

revenue.

June 13, 2016 – LinkedIn agrees to be acquired by Microsoft.

June 27, 2016 – MeetMe agrees to acquire Skout.

June 29, 2016 – MeetMe announces its inclusion into to Russell 2000 Index that occurred on June 27.

MeetMe Opens an Office in Philadelphia

On June 2, 2016, MeetMe announced that it is opening an office in Philadelphia. This announcement is the least

meaningful of the 5 recent events I will analyze; however, the manner in which MeetMe opened up this office is

indicative of management’s respect for investor capital and decision making process. MeetMe chose to partner with

WeWork. WeWork rents desks in a community office space through flexible month-to-month office agreements that

allow renters to choose from multiple options including hot desks, dedicated desks and private offices. MeetMe’s

management could have easily entered into a longer term and more expensive conventional office leasing agreement

without too much investor pushback. Instead, CEO Geoff Clark and CFO David Clark decided to rent desks in a

community office that I think will increase annual G&A by $100,000-$150,000 and can be closed/exited with monthly

notice. The Philadelphia office allows MeetMe to attract and retain top talent that does not want to drive one hour each

way to New Hope, PA (MeetMe’s headquarters). Conservative to its core, management is not frivolously spending

capital on unnecessary projects, but instead prudently protecting cash generated by the company’s operations.

Apple and Google Announce More Favorable Economics for App Developers

On June 8, Google and Apple announced a change to their revenue sharing arrangements with app developers, like

MeetMe, for subscription revenue. In the past, Apple and Google took 30% of all in-app payments processed through

Apple Store or Google Pay. For example, if I purchased a 3 month subscription to MeetMe+ for $18 ($6 per month),

Google or Apple would charge $1.80 per transaction or $5.40 in total for processing those payments. Therefore,

MeetMe would earn $12.60 of the $18 subscription after paying Apple or Google the in-app payment processing fee.

Now, Apple will take a 15% fee (as opposed to 30% historically) and give app developers 85% of in-app payment revenue

(as opposed to 70% historically) for subscriptions greater than 1 year in duration. I do not believe that MeetMe will

benefit from Apple’s change because MEET does not offer a 1 year or longer subscription. In response to Apple’s move,

Google announced that it will take a 15% fee (as opposed to 30% historically) and give app developers 85% of in-app

payment revenue (as opposed to 70% historically) for all subscription revenue. Therefore, using the example above,

MeetMe will earn $15.30 on an $18 subscription through Google as opposed to earning $12.60 through the previous

Google in-app payment processing agreement. The incremental $2.70 savings has a 100% EBITDA contribution margin.

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Assuming that MEET is only able to capture more margin dollars on Android user subscriptions, and 65% of subscription

dollars come from Android, then I think the recent changes could add $150-200k in annual EBITDA to MEET ($468,000 *

65% * 4 quarters). The Apple and Google in-app payment processing changes do not drive a material increase in

profitability like it might for subscription-heavy mobile apps like Match Group (Nasdaq: MTCH), but who does not like

finding a $20 bill in their pants pocket? MeetMe woke up on June 8, 2016 and found a free annualized $150-200k. I

would assume that MEET is trying to find ways to push in-app credit purchases to subscriptions in order to capture more

margin dollars.

LinkedIn (LNKD) agrees to be acquired by Microsoft (MSFT)

LinkedIn agreed to be acquired by Microsoft on June 13, 2016 for approximately 24x, 57x, and 230x EV/2016 EBITDA,

2016 EPS and EV/2016 Monthly Active User (“MAU”), respectively. Looking out to 2017, LNKD agreed to be acquired for

19.5x and 46x EV/2017 EBITDA and 2017 EPS. LinkedIn is stickier and has stronger brand awareness than MeetMe, but

MeetMe is only trading for 7.5x, 11.3x and 25.9x the midpoint of 2016 EBITDA guidance, 2016 EPS and 2016 MAU

assuming the Skout acquisition closes. LinkedIn should get a multiple premium to MeetMe. I would argue that MEET

should get a multiple in-line with Momo Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO), which received a 5% strategic investment from Alibaba

(NYSE: BABA) at 13.3x forward EBITDA. MEET is still trading at a significant discount to peers even after MEET’s 60%

move over the last month.

MeetMe Agrees to Acquire Skout

This acquisition is a game changer. The Skout acquisition is the perfect combination of strategic importance and

accretive valuation. Layer on management’s clear guidance and vision, and investors responded positively to the

acquisition with the stock breaking through historical resistance and closing the day up 11%. You might be asking “why is

this acquisition so good?” That’s the right question, and that’s why I wanted to write this article. Let me walk you

through the salient opportunities the Skout acquisition presents.

Most importantly, MeetMe will have the opportunity to implement best practices across MeetMe and Skout. For

example, I believe MeetMe has an opportunity to implement its marketing spend practices onto Skout’s platform to

potentially drive better user growth. Alternatively, Skout’s user base is 80% international, and 90% of Skout’s revenue is

derived from advertising. Skout has a significant library of knowledge around monetizing international users, and

MeetMe will be able to leverage this knowledge to better monetize its international users.

First, let’s evaluate the opportunity to monetize MeetMe’s international users. In order to calculate MeetMe’s potential

revenue from international users, we need to determine: 1) MeetMe’s number of non-monetized international Daily

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Active Users (“DAU”), and 2) a reasonable International Average Revenue Per Daily Active User (“ARPDAU”) assumption.

The table below highlights that MeetMe’s Q1’16 international DAU and Mobile Ad International ARPDAU.

We have reasonably determined MeetMe’s International DAU based on management’s commentary on the Q1’16

earnings call. And we know that 33% of MeetMe’s DAU do not see any ads and, thus, have a $0.00 ARPDAU. As a result,

we can accurately determine MeetMe’s Monetized ARPDAU was approximately $0.153 in Q1’16, which is seasonally the

smallest quarter of the year. For investors less familiar with internet companies, ARPDAU represents the daily dollar

contribution from a user. For example, MEET’s monetized daily active users generated approximately 15 cents of

revenue every day in Q1’16 according to my calculation.

Now the fun part. We need to determine a reasonable ARPDAU assumption to ascribe to MEET’s international DAU.

Prior to the Skout acquisition, I only used Facebook as a reference for international monetization. Facebook’s

monetization data was helpful, but the size of scale of Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) always made me wonder if MEET could

monetize its international users at the same level as FB. Let’s analyze FB’s user data before I compare it to Skout’s user

data to triangulate MeetMe’s international opportunity. Please see a picture of Facebook’s Q1’16 ARPU by geography

below.

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Clearly, Facebook is monetizing users in US & Canada much better than users in other geographies across the world. FB

does not provide ARPDAU data by geography, but investors can calculate ARPDAU based on information that Facebook

provides. Please see my calculations below:

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The most important takeaway from the table above is that Rest of World, Asia-Pacific and European DAU monetized at

9.1%, 17.1%, and 33.7% of a US/Canadian DAU in Q1’16, respectively. This is an important takeaway because it informs

investors that Facebook, the darling of mobile monetization, is seeing drastically smaller ARPDAU outside of US/Canada.

Ok, Greg, what does that mean to MeetMe? Let’s see…

MeetMe disclosed its top 10 geographies in order of percentage of DAU on the Skout acquisition call: US (54% of DAU),

Turkey, Brazil, the UK, India, Indonesia, Germany, the Philippines, Canada and Mexico. Investors know the MeetMe is

monetizing users in the US, the UK, Canada and Australia (not a top 10 contributor to DAU) right now, and that those

users total approximately 67% of DAU. Therefore, the UK, Canada and Australia contribute about 13% of DAU (67%

minus 54%). The remaining countries that comprise the top 10 geographies contributing to DAU (Turkey, Brazil, India,

Indonesia, Germany, the Philippines and Mexico) skew Asia-Pacific centric. As a result, I have been assuming that

MeetMe can monetize its ~375,000 non-monetized international users at about 20% of monetized ARPDAU, which is

approximately in-line with Facebook. I am assuming 20% as opposed to Facebook’s 17.1% because MEET’s monetized

ARPDAU is slightly deflated by the inclusion of the UK, Canada and Australia, which likely monetize at a lower rate than

the US. In Q1’16, MEET’s monetized ARPDAU was $0.15. Assuming that MEET’s non-monetized international users can

generate 20% of $0.15 equates to a $0.03 international ARPDAU. Finally, we can calculate that MeetMe’s international

users would have added about $1 million ($0.03 ARPDAU * 375,000 users * 91 days) of high margin revenue in Q1’16. I

believe ARPDAU should approximately double from Q1 to Q4 seasonally across the mobile ad industry, so full year 2016

ARPDAU should be in the $0.045 range ($0.03 + $0.06 divided by 2). Therefore, I had been modeling the international

opportunity to be about $6-7 million of revenue in 2016 if MEET monetized its international users for an entire year.

Obviously, MeetMe is not monetizing international users right now, but MEET did state that it plans to begin monetizing

international users in Q3’16. I believe international revenues will be de minimis in 2016 as management begins testing

monetization on a small trial basis before a company-wide rollout.

The international user monetization opportunity using the logic above is a good story. However, the Skout acquisition

gave me the opportunity to reevaluate my assumptions, and my analysis leads me to be more positive on MeetMe’s

international user monetization opportunity. Please see a table with my estimate of Skout’s international ARPDAU.

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I calculate that Skout International ARPDAU is approximately $0.068. This compares very favorably to the $0.045

ARPDAU estimate I was using previously. My calculation makes one key assumption. I assume that Skout’s US ARPDAU is

approximately in-line with MeetMe’s average Monetized ARPDAU for 2015. I believe this is the most conservative

assumption I can make because MEET’s Chief Revenue Office, Bill Alena, has done a wonderful job of monetizing the

MeetMe user base through a combination of native, banner and interstitial (“full page”) ads. If Skout’s ARPDAU was

lower than MeetMe’s ARPDAU, then Skout’s International ARPDAU would be even higher than $0.068.

Notably, Skout’s top 10 DAU contributors in order are: US (19%), Indonesia, Brazil, the Philippines, Thailand, Taiwan,

Mexico, the UK, China and Hong Kong. These countries over-index APAC and therefore my monetization estimate that

MeetMe could monetize its users at 20% of US ARPDAU should be comparable and reasonable.

Skout’s international ad monetization experience could be leveraged to help MeetMe generate ARPDAU greater than

what I previously expected. I previously thought MeetMe’s international monetization opportunity was in the $6-7

million range, and I now think that opportunity is in the $10-11 million range based on Skout’s ability to monetize

international users at a level higher than I previously thought was reasonable. My favorite aspect of MEET’s financial

model is that incremental revenues contribute at extremely high margins. As I have highlighted in both of my prior notes

(initiation and follow-up) on MEET, I believe ~65% of incremental revenue contributes to EBITDA. I am not sure if

international advertising revenue will have a higher cost structure, but the general model should be similar. To wrap up

MeetMe’s international user opportunity, I believe Skout has industry experience and knowhow that will allow MEET to

monetize international users at a higher level.

Let’s take a breath.

Second, investors should examine the opportunity to change Skout’s ad logic. I believe that Skout’s ad logic suffers from

the same problem that MeetMe experience prior to taking ad inventory management in-house on June 3, 2015.

MeetMe has five tabs in the app: “Meet”, “Chat”, “Discuss”, “Me”, and “Plus”. When a user moves from the “Meet” tab

to the “Chat” tab, the native and banner ads do not refresh. In other words, a user that sees the Target native ad in

“Meet” will continue to see the Target native ad if the user navigates to a different tab. See the picture below to see

how MeetMe’s ad logic displays ads.

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Alternatively, ads load differently in the Skout app. Native ads appear to refresh when I navigate from the “Buzz” tab in

Skout to the “Meet” tab in Skout. A user that sees the Sleep Number native ad in Skout’s “Meet” tab will not see the

same native ad if they navigate to the Skout’s “Buzz” tab.

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Let’s say I need a mattress, and I thought the Sleep Number ad was extremely relevant. If I navigate away from Skout’s

“Meet” tab to Skout’s “Buzz” tab, I can no longer go back to Skout’s “Meet” tab to view the Sleep Number native ad.

That ad is dead and gone. The problem is that users could actually want to click on an ad, but miss the opportunity

because of Skout’s ad logic. MeetMe will have an excellent opportunity to overlay its superior ad logic onto Skout’s

platform to drive better Click Thru Rates (“CTRs”) which drives higher advertising rates (Cost Per Thousand Impressions,

aka “CPM”). This is almost exactly the same ad logic change that MeetMe implemented in the MeetMe app last year.

Third, investors need to analyze the potential to reduce Skout’s costs. Skout delivered $23.8m and $2.1m in 2015

Revenue and EBITDA, respectively. Management guided to $7.5m in incremental EBITDA from Skout in the twelve

months after the acquisition closes. I believe MEET management will be able to operate Skout at a similar operating

model to MeetMe’s mobile app. I think the opportunity is for Skout to spend 20-25% of revenues on Sales & Marketing,

5-10% of revenues on General & Administrative, and 10-20% of revenues on product development. If Skout’s OPEX can

be limited to 50% of revenues, and greater than 90% of revenues come from high gross margin advertising, then I think

Skout has the opportunity to operate at ~50% EBITDA margins over time.

Fourth, investors analyze the opportunity to increase the quality of the MeetMe and Skout apps by adopting best

practices from each app. My most recent article on MEET goes into depth about the potential benefit that MeetMe’s

revamped “Discuss” tab could have on user engagement. I believe MEET could easily layer the category based Discuss

functionality onto Skout’s “Buzz” tab to improve Skout’s user experience. Conversely, I think Skout does a good job of

pushing users to add friends to the Skout app. From the screen in the picture below, Skout allows users to send

invitations to their phone’s contacts or integrate with Google to invite contacts that Google has identified. This is an

extremely low cost way of driving user growth, and MEET may want to add this functionality to the MeetMe app.

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Finally, let’s evaluate the impact increased scale will have on the MeetMe + Skout combined entity. The obvious benefit

is that incremental revenues contribute at very high margins, but I want to focus on this acquisition’s strategic benefit.

The biggest perceived benefit might be improved positioning with ad exchanges and advertisers. Suppose that Fitbit was

interested in marketing to 18-35 year olds on a mobile platform before the summer. Fitbit could want to create

awareness in an 18 year old looking for a present to give to his/her dad for Father’s Day. Fitbit could also be targeting a

35 year old looking to track his activity and motivate himself to get in better shape. Looking at people’s pictures and

selfies in the MeetMe and Skout apps could motivate people to get in better shape. The MeetMe app target

demographic is 18-24 years old while the Skout target demographic is 25-34 years old. The combined MeetMe + Skout

entity could make MEET a more attractive publisher for advertisers in which to advertise. It also affords MEET the

opportunity to capture more advertising dollars for campaigns that target a slightly older user.

To conclude my initial analysis of the Skout acquisition, I believe this is a home run. I see many opportunities for MEET to

layer best practices from MeetMe and Skout onto each app to drive impressive user growth and profitability.

MeetMe is Added to the Russell 2000 Index

MEET was added to the Russell 2000 Index on June 27, 2016. The inclusion should help MEET gain main visibility and

exposure as well as benefit from fund flows into the Russell 2000 Index.

Page 10: Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs · 7/1/2016  · LinkedIn is stickier and has stronger brand awareness than MeetMe, but MeetMe is only trading for 7.5x,

Risk Factors

- The mobile advertising market is nascent and has not gone through a major recession. The effect an economic

recession would have on mobile CPMs is uncertain; however, internet advertising rates fared better than all

other media platforms during the Great Recession. I believe the mobile advertising space today is very similar to

the internet advertising market in 2008. Internet advertising spend outperformed all other media platforms in

the Great Recession.

- Mobile CPMs generally increase from Q1 sequentially through Q4 due to seasonality in advertising budgets. If

Mobile CPMs do not increase seasonally for any reason, MeetMe’s business could be negatively impacted.

- Facebook has been slowly rolling out ads on Instagram since 2014, and Match Group could monetize Tinder

through ads in the future. Mobile CPMs could decrease if many publishers all turn on mobile ads simultaneously

before demand has sufficiently developed.

- MeetMe increased its 2016 marketing spend guidance from 10%, which was issued on the Q4’15 earnings call,

to 15%, which was issued on the Q1’16 earnings call. CEO Geoff Cook said that marketing spend will be

“accretive, especially within the United States” on the Q1’16 earnings call. Management continued “the way we

typically think about our spend is we allocate some portion to English speaking countries, that tends to be the

majority, some portion to international markets, and in Q1, we saw better results than we had seen in the past

in terms of quality of the spend and our ability to drive users for less than their lifetime value.” My model is

conservatively modeling a 50% year-over-year reduction in marketing spend productivity, which is not in-line

with management’s commentary about the better productivity of marketing spend, and my model is still

outlining potential for upside to guidance. Financial results could be negatively impacted if management acts

irrationally and spends marketing dollars in a dilutive manner.

- MeetMe grew Mobile DAU and MAU from 772,000 and 2.45 million users in Q1’14 to 1.14 million and 4.382

million in Q1’16, respectively. The stock could be negatively impacted if MeetMe is unable to continue to grow

its users.

- International users are growing rapidly and constitute about 46% of DAU and 50% of MAU. Although MEET’s

international users are largely not monetized to date, international factors such as exchange rates and economic

instability could affect MEET’s performance.

- My target price increase is largely based on the perceived synergies from MeetMe’s acquisition of Skout. If

MEET is unable to close on the acquisition for any reason, I believe MEET’s stock price will be negatively

affected. MEET needs to fund a $28.5m cash payment on October 1, 2016 to close the Skout acquisition. I

believe MEET will have enough cash on its balance sheet and access to debt to close on the acquisition. MEET

had $26.4m in cash and $0 in debt on its balance sheet at March 31, 2016.

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Valuation

My $8 price target is based on 12x and 13.5x my diluted EV/2017 EBITDA and 2017 diluted EPS initial estimates,

respectively. Many analysts have not yet updated their estimates to reflect the effect of the Skout acquisition. My

valuation is assuming 53.7 million fully diluted shares outstanding and adding the 5.37 million shares that MEET will

issue to Skout shareholder to arrive at a 59.1 million fully diluted share count.

MEET is still one of the cheapest stocks that I know even after the large move 60% higher over the last month.

Companies that trade for the cheapest valuation in their respective comp groups are often experiencing some sort of

degradation in their businesses. I do not believe MeetMe is facing any large macro headwinds. In fact, I believe the shift

in advertising budgets away from print, radio, television and internet towards mobile is a massive industry tailwind that

will benefit MeetMe and Skout. In addition, the Skout acquisition affords MEET with a longer runway to grow the

business and drive significantly greater profitability over the coming years. Despite MEET’s positive fundamental

backdrop, MEET still trades for a 40%-70% discount to peers based on EV/EBITDA, P/E, PEG and FCF Yield. MEET should

screen well for growth, GARP, and value investors.

The Case for Growth Investors

Consensus estimates expect MEET to grow consolidated revenues and core Mobile revenues 17.9% and 28.5% in 2016,

respectively. I expect MEET's core Mobile revenue to be 90% of total revenue exiting 2016, and total revenue growth

could accelerate in 2017 when management monetizes international users. Leveraging Skout’s international ad

monetization expertise will allow MEET to drive better international mobile monetization that I previously expected.

MeetMe trades at approximately a 1 turn discount on EV/2016 Revenue to accelerating growth internet peers.

The Case for GARP Investors

MEET is growing revenues 17.9% according to its guidance and showing operating leverage with ~65% of incremental

revenue converting to EBITDA in 2016 (compared to consolidated EBITDA margins of 37.5%). MEET is trading for 6.4x

EV/2017 EBITDA, 10x GAAP 2017 EPS, 7x adjusted 2017 EPS, and has a 0.25 2017 PEG ratio. I believe MEET’s

consolidated revenues will continue to grow in 2017, and Skout could drive revenue and EBITDA absolute dollar growth

in excess of 2016’s increase.

The Case for Value Investors

MEET is trading for a 12.7% consensus 2017 FCF yield assuming a fully diluted share count of 59.1 million shares.

Approximately 55% of incremental revenue falls through to FCF, and management’s decision to acquire Skout at an

accretive valuation displays management’s ability to make good long term investment decisions. The company has $57

million in net operating losses to offset cash taxes for the next ~2 years. MEET has $26 million in cash and no debt on its

balance sheet. I believe MEET could add $23 million in free cash flow over the last 9 months of 2016. MEET’s strong FCF

should allow MEET to fund the $28.5m cash payment to Skout on October 1, 2016 with cash on the balance sheet plus a

small line of credit.

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I have compared MEET to several different peer groups to examine relative valuation.

Gaming and Dating/Chat Apps

When comparing MEET to Gaming and Dating/Chat Apps, MEET trades for a 39%, 65%, 39%, and 64% discount to peer

average EV/2017 EBITDA, Price to 2017 EPS, 2017 PEG, and 2017 FCF yield basis, respectively.

Social Comps

When comparing MEET to Social comps, MEET trades for a 49%, 70%, 56%, and 74% discount to peer average EV/2017

EBITDA, Price to 2017 EPS, 2017 PEG, and 2017 FCF yield, respectively.

Internet Comps Growing Revenue 10-30%

When comparing MEET to Internet comps growing revenue 10-30%, MEET trades for a 50%, 68%, 71%, and 44%

discount to peer average EV/2017 EBITDA, Price to 2017 EPS, 2017 PEG, and 2017 FCF yield, respectively.

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Internet Comps with 10-40% EBITDA Margins

When comparing MEET to Internet comps with 10-40% EBITDA margins, MEET trades for a 45%, 67%, 72%, and 38%

discount to peer average EV/2017 EBITDA, Price to 2017 EPS, 2017 PEG, and 2017 FCF yield, respectively.

Internet Comps with High Single Digit or Greater FCF Yields

When comparing MEET to high FCF Yield Internet comps, MEET trades for a 27%, 44%, 54%, and 10% discount to peer

average EV/2017 EBITDA, Price to 2017 EPS, 2017 PEG, and 2017 FCF yield, respectively.

I am going to argue that MEET should trade for 12x my EV/2017 EBITDA estimate based on the massive relative discount

to public peers. A 12x EBITDA multiple is still a discount to this comp group, and I think very defensible given that

competitor PlentyOfFish was acquired by MTCH for ~13 forward EBITDA, and MOMO, "MeetMe's closest comp"

according to CEO Geoff Cook at the B.Riley conference, recently received an investment from Alibaba (NYSE: BABA)

valuing the company at 13.3x forward EBITDA. Assuming 59.1 million fully diluted shares, $50 million in net cash at the

Page 14: Skouting Out Unfamiliar Territory: MEET is at 4-Year Highs · 7/1/2016  · LinkedIn is stickier and has stronger brand awareness than MeetMe, but MeetMe is only trading for 7.5x,

end of 2017, and applying 12x to my 2017 EBITDA estimates generates a ~$8.00 target price. An $8.00 stock price at the

end of the year equates to 10.5x 2017 adjusted EPS (or 12x GAAP EPS) plus $0.85 in cash. MEET adds back stock comp (I

estimate stock comp is $4.0 million in 2017), amortization of intangibles (I estimate amortization of intangibles is $0.5

million in 2017), and non-cash taxes (I estimate non cash taxes of $1.5 million). Altogether, GAAP EPS adjustments will

add ~$0.10 to 2017 adjusted EPS to reflect the real earning power of the business.

Conclusion

MEET’s acquisition of Skout raising the ceiling on how big MEET can be multiple fold, and investors should want to own

MEET while management adopts best practices across both the MeetMe and Skout app to drive improved revenue and

profitability growth. MEET is attractively positioned as a pure play investment opportunity levered to the shift in

advertising dollars towards mobile devices. The management team is improving the user experience and relevance of

MeetMe to its 18-30 year old demographic, and increased user engagement could drive upside to numbers. I believe

that the revamp of “Feed” and relaunch as “Discuss” did drive increased user engagement in May and June 2016.

MeetMe's financial metrics offer a rare combination of growth and value that should appeal to a broad set of investors. I

want to own MEET as the stock goes through discovery, and MEET is better appreciated.

Disclosure

The author of this posting and related persons or entities ("Author") currently holds a long position in this security which

can currently be considered a short-term holding. Author may buy additional shares, or sell some or all of Author's

shares, at any time. Author has no obligation to inform anyone of any changes to Author's view of MEET. Please consult

your financial, legal, and/or tax advisors before making any investment decisions. While Author has tried to present facts

it believes are accurate, Author makes no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of any information

contained in this note. The reader agrees not to invest based on this note, and to perform his or her own due diligence

and research before taking a position in MEET. READER AGREES TO HOLD HARMLESS AND HEREBY WAIVES ANY CAUSES

OF ACTION AGAINST AUTHOR RELATED TO THE NOTE ABOVE. As with all investments, caveat emptor.