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Transcript of Skills required to support potential economic growth in the NI sustainable energy sector Rob...
Skills required to support potential economic growth in the NI sustainable energy sector
Rob Williams
Belfast, 7th September 2011
Presentation Structure
1. Scope
2. Approach
3. Results• Current sector size and nature• Prospects and barriers• Skills supply vs. demand
4. Conclusions and policy remarks
Scope
• To achieve the following outputs: ◦ Estimate the current size of the Sustainable Energy (SE)
sector in NI ◦ Estimate the future potential growth rates in the SE
subsectors ◦ Model the staff / skills profiles in each of the sectors◦ Apply the growth rates to the current sector size and
profile to estimate future skills needs ◦ Analyse the current supply of relevant skills ◦ Compare the supply of skills to the future demand for
skills to illustrate what gaps between supply and demand may develop
Scope – Sustainable Energy Sectors
• Integrated Building Technology ◦ Energy efficiency and renewables in new and existing
buildings.◦ Large energy user, large amounts of buildings to be
refurbished, large employer.• Offshore Energy
◦ Offshore wind, wave and tidal. ◦ Large resource, wind developing, wave and tidal research
skills.• Bioenergy
◦ Production and utilisation of biomass for energy. ◦ Large resource and new and diversified employment
opportunities. • Energy Storage
◦ Storage of electricity (and gas), Smart grid.◦ Key enabling technology with global potential.
Approach
• Involved a combination of:◦ Literature review, company survey (140 from 450),
consultations (40+), workshop and modelling
• Sector size and profile ◦ Based on BIS Low Carbon and Environmental Goods and
Services (LCEGS) descriptions ◦ Fractions of the four digit SIC codes – number of
companies employment, GVA◦ Reality tested via consultations and survey◦ Typical skills profiles for sectors, refined via survey
• Market growth◦ Annual growth rates to 2020◦ Wide variety of sources, low to high scenarios◦ Not just NI, not aiming at ‘self sufficiency’
Current Sector Size and Nature
Current (2010) Estimate of the Turnover and Size of the Sustainable Energy Sector in NI
Sustainable Energy Sector GVA £m Number of companies Employment
Integrated Building Technology 92.1 634 1,798
Offshore Energy 31.7 94 476
Bio Energy 26.0 239 1,106
Energy Storage 25.6 73 526
Total 175.4 1,040 3,906
Share of NI Total (GVA, No. companies and Employment) 0.92% 1.52% 0.56%
Source: Ecorys Modelling
• Confident in order of magnitude, but estimate– Part of larger sectors– Fast moving and fluid– International
Current Sector Size and Nature NI SE Sectors
SOC 1 Managers and Senior Officials
17%
SOC 2 Professional Occupations
19%
SOC 3 Associate Professional and
Technical Occupations
8%
SOC 4 Administrative and
Secretarial Occupations
9%
SOC 5 Skilled Trades
Occupations15%
SOC 6 Personal Service
Occupations2%
SOC 7 Sales and Customer Service
Occupations5%
SOC 8 Process, Plant and Machine
Operations20%
SOC 9 Elementary Occupations
5%
Whole NI Economy
SOC 1 Managers and Senior Off icials
11%
SOC 2 Professional Occupations
12%
SOC 3 Associate Professional and
Technical Occupations
12%
SOC 4 Administrative and
Secretarial Occupations
14%
SOC 5 Skilled Trades
Occupations16%
SOC 6 Personal Service
Occupations9%
SOC 7 Sales and Customer Service
Occupations7%
SOC 8 Process, Plant and Machine
Operations9%
SOC 9 Elementary Occupations
10%
Source: Ecorys Modelling Labour force survey
• Staffing profile◦ High skilled◦ Manufacturing focus, lower input from sales and support◦ Technology development, some at early stage
Prospects and Barriers
• Multiple sources. E.g. – BIS, Renewable Energy Action Plans, Sustainable Energy Authority Ireland
• If NI is to meet 40% of its electricity demand from renewables by 2020, generation would need to grow by 13% per year
Annual Growth Rates to 2020 for Sustainable Energy Sectors (and Sub-sectors)
Annual Growth of Market Size to 2020 (%) Sub Sector
Low Central High
Integrated Building Technology 5.5 10 15
Offshore - wind 17 27 32
Offshore - wave, tidal 7 26.5 40
Bioenergy -electricity 5.7 6.7 29
Bioenergy -heat 3.9 9.4 22
Bioenergy -transport 6.2 9.5 13.8
Energy storage 3 4 6
Supply of Skills
– Large proportion of skills and educational requirements of the SE sector are not new
– Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) core skills are key.
– FE and HE provision of entirely relevant courses (e.g. electrical engineering) and relevant units within other courses (e.g. biomass within a land management course).
– Carbon Zero Project – collated existing provision and helped develop new and additional. 526 enrolled in 09/10.
– Some strong research and teaching skills in HE – e.g. Questor at Queen's, UU School of the Built Environment.
– FE has large numbers enrolled in relevant areas (e.g. 2009/10 - 7,172 engineering and 9,781 construction)
– Had to estimate what % of ‘generalists’ will go into SE
Demand vs. Supply
Demand- Projected to
increase from ~500 annually in 2011 to >860 in 2015 (central)
Supply- Base skills
(engineering) allocated to and between sectors by relative size
- Est. ~350 skilled people supplied each year
Projections of Skiiled Worker Requirements in the Sustainable Energy Sector in NI
420Low
Central
863
High
1680
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ann
ual S
E s
kille
d w
orke
rs r
equi
red
Demand v Supply
• Annual gap between supply
& demand, est ~175 / year
• Biggest gaps in Offshore
Energy and IBT• Only small / no shortages in
Bioenergy and Energy
Storage
• Total gap of around 900 by
2015– Over 500 in Offshore
Energy
Average Annual Gap Between Skills Demand and Supply for the Sustainable Energy Sector in NI
Offshore Energy
Bio Energy
Energy Storage
Integrated Building
Technology
-25
0
25
50
75
100
125
Ind
ivid
ua
ls
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Demand
– Clearest short term need in offshore wind– Demand in IBT and Bioenergy should grow steadily– Strong medium to long term opportunities in wave, tidal and
the Smart Grid– Government energy policy lead and clarity is key to
demand– There is a need for multidisciplinary skilled workers– Export focus for NI companies is vital for growth, but needs
support– Availability of funds to support courses, upgrade the grid
and provide other SE growth assistance is an issue
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Supply– The decline in numbers of those pursuing high level
mechanical and electrical engineering courses is a concern– Co-ordination between skills providers is growing and
should continue to be encouraged– Some skills gaps could be filled by attracting back ex-
patriot NI workers – Supporting and developing STEM skills is arguably more
important than trying to match specific needs
Conclusions (and uncertainties)
Supply vs. Demand
– Multiple assumptions required introduce uncertainty– Ideal to match supply and demand
◦ Avoid over and under supply◦ Requires close cooperation between companies and
skills providers◦ Could export ‘surplus’ skills◦ High risk to use public funds in anticipation of demand
– Skills need of large incoming SE companies best met by providing labour market entrants with STEM skills
Policy Remarks - Short Term
Skills Provision• Develop capacity in offshore / marine technician training
Skills Policy• Consider ensuring relevant FE course are on the priority
support list• Support apprenticeships in SE
Other• Use SE to promote STEM skills
Policy Remarks - Medium Term
Skills Provision• Continue the dialogue between industry government and skills providers in
order to anticipate and meet specific skills needs as they emerge • Develop capacity to retain the developed skills in Integrated Building
Technology • Modify the content and branding of some HE courses to include SE content
and references. Skills Policy• Link with Scotland and the rest of the UK in SE promotion and skills
development • Continue to support the developing SE specialisations of the FE providers
Other• Ensure that the planned efforts to publicise and present the policy vision for
SE in NI reach industry and the general public effectively • Communication and education by the network owner and operator and the
Utility Regulator on the plans and efforts underway to improve the structural integrity and energy storage potential of the grid
• Continue support for SMEs wishing to enter, or increase their activity in, the SE sector
Policy Pointers - Longer Term
Skills Provision• Retain and develop the SE skills in the HE sector
Other• Consider linking to future ‘Homecoming / C’Mon Over’
campaigns (or equivalent) to attract back ex patriot workers in SE.
Thank you
Contact Details
Rob WilliamsAssociate Director
0121 212 885607920 494 798