Skills Outlook 2017€¦ · Source:OECD (2015b), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard...
Transcript of Skills Outlook 2017€¦ · Source:OECD (2015b), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard...
OECD Skills Outlook Global LaunchSkills and Global Value Chains
@UniofBathIPR, @OECDEduSkills#OECDSkills
4 May 2017
Andreas SchleicherAndrew Wyckoff
1
Skills Outlook 2017Skills and Global Value Chains
30th May 2017Stéphanie Jamet
People are at the centre of Global Value Chains
2
What Global Value Chains (GVCs) mean
Value added
The Smiling Curve
3
R&D
Design
Logistic purchase
Production
Assembling
Logistic
Market
Service
Pre‐production
Upstream activities
Post‐production
Downstream activities
Production
Value chain activities
4
A comprehensive approach
Exports of manufactured goods include a large share of value added from abroad
Foreign value added embodied in exports, manufactured goods and services, 2011
0102030405060708090
100
Domestic, in manufactured exports Foreign, in manufactured exportsForeign, in business services exports
Source: OECD Trade in Value Added database (TiVA).
0102030405060708090
%
EU28 East and Southeast Asia (excl. China) NAFTAChina Rest of the world
Many jobs depend on demand in foreign countries
Source: OECD (2015b), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society.
Jobs in the business sector sustained by foreign final demand, by region of demandAs a percentage of total business sector employment, 2011
5
Skills Matter for globalisation
6
• Realise productivity gains – offered by new technologies and participation in GVCs
• Protect workers against negative impact– Job losses, lower job quality
• Specialise in advanced industries and services– Innovation, higher productivity, job creation
7
Why skills?
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
Backward participation(exports)
Backward participation (finaldemand)
Forward participation (finaldemand)
Least fragmentable industries Most fragmentable industries
Percentage points
Average annual increase in productivity growth, 1995‐2009
Larger increase in: Transport eq., Electrical and optical eq., Food products, Chemicals
Smaller increase in:Computer activities, R&D and other business activities, health and social work
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD TiVA database and World Input‐Output Database (WIOD).
Participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains, especially if associated with skills
8
Skills channel
9
Gap in job quality between high‐skilled and low‐skilled workersand participation in global value chains
More educated workers enjoy better job quality
AUT
BEL
CZE
DNK
ESTFIN
FRA
DEUGRC
HUN
IRL
ITA
LUX
NLD
NOR
POL
PRTSVK
SVNESPSWE
TUR
GBR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Gap in the quality of the working environment between high-skilled and low-skilled workers
Backward participation in GVCs, %
In countries more integrated in global markets, the gap in job quality between educated and less educated workers is bigger
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Job Quality Database and OECD Trade in Value Added database (TiVA).
Earnings qualityLevel and distribution of earnings
Labour‐market securityRisk of unemployment and available income support
Quality of the working environmentNature and content of work performed, work‐time arrangements and workplace relationships
10
Production
Marketing
Services
Design
R&DValue added along GVCs
From economic to social outcomes
By investing in skills, countries can help make GVCs work for all
Skills
Employment
Social outcomes
ProductivityA scoreboard to on skills and GVCs capturing for each country:• Skills• Participation in GVCs• Economic and social outcomes
11
Limited share of low‐skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution is important
Increasing participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs
Specialised in advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing specialisation in advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation
Improving social outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour‐market security and the quality of the working environment
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70%
W k
In both literacy and numeracy In literacy only In numeracy only
The proportion of low performers in literacy and/or numeracy
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015).12
More than 200m adults in OECD countries have low literacy or numeracy skills and 60% lack both
13
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
Limited share of low‐skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution is important
Increasing participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs
Specialised in advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing specialisation in advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation
Improving social outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour‐market security and the quality of the working environment
Countries can shape their specialisation within global value chains through the skills of their populations
14
15
Change in specialisation, 2000-11: Increase Decrease
Source: OECD calculations based on the Trade in Value Added Database.
Most OECD countries have increased their specialisation in technologically advanced industries
Decreasein low tech. industries
Increase in high tech. industries
Austral
iaAu
stria
Belgi
umCa
nada
ChileCz
ech R
epub
lic
Denm
arkEs
tonia
Finlan
dGe
rman
yGr
eece
Irelan
dIsr
ael
JapanKo
reaNe
therl
ands
New
Zeala
nd
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
m
Unite
d Stat
es
Low-tech manufacturing
Food productsTex tilesWood Pulp and paperManufacturing n.e.cCoke, petroleumRubber productsOther mineral productsBasic metalsFabricated metal productsWholesale and retail tradeHotels and restaurantsTransport and storagePost and telecom.Machinery and eq.Electrical machineryMotor v ehiclesChemicals Computer, optical Other transport eq.Finance and insuranceReal estate activ itiesRenting of eq.Computer R&D
Low-tech manufacturing
Medium/low-tech manufacturing
Business services (less
complex)
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Specialising in most technologically advanced industries (incl. services) requires a good alignment of countries’ skills with industries’ skills requirements
For instance, the finance and insurance industry requires :
Workers with a mix of skillsWorkers with good numeracy skills but also managing and communicating skills to perform the various activities
Pools of workers with qualifications that reflect what they can doMany technologically advanced industries involve long sequences of tasks and poor performance at any stage greatly reduces the value of output
16
Specialisation opportunitiesin complex business services, high‐tech and medium high‐tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
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ange
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1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
The revealed comparative advantage captures countries’ specialisation in industries within global
value chains. It shows the comparative advantage/disadvantage a country has in an industry relative to other countries and all other industries
Revealed comparative advantage (2011 RCA>1)No revealed comparative advantage (2011 RCA<1)
Specialisation opportunitiesin complex business services, high‐tech and medium high‐tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
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niaSw
eden
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yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
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ange
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ange
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1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
in R
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CA >
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ange
in R
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ange
in R
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1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisationRevealed comparative advantage (2011 RCA>1)No revealed comparative advantage (2011 RCA<1)
Specialisation opportunitiesin complex business services, high‐tech and medium high‐tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1ch
ange
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CA >
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ange
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ange
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ange
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ange
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ange
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1ch
ange
in R
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ange
in R
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1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
in R
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11 R
CA >
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ange
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ange
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ange
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ange
in R
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ange
in R
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ange
in R
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11 R
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ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisationSkills characteristics insufficient to meet requirements of advanced industries
Specialisation opportunitiesin complex business services, high‐tech and medium high‐tech manufacturing resulting from alignment between countries skill characteristics with industry requirements
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
in R
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11 R
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ange
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in R
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11 R
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1ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
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ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Revealed comparative advantage increasedRevealed comparative advantage decreased
Austr
alia
Austr
iaCa
nada
Chile
Eston
iaFin
land
Germ
any
Irelan
dJap
an
Kore
a
Nethe
rland
sNe
w Ze
aland
Norw
ayPo
land
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Slove
niaSw
eden
Turke
yUn
ited K
ingdo
mUn
ited S
tat
Technology category Industry name ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
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ange
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11 R
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ange
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ange
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ange
in R
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11 R
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ange
in R
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11 R
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ange
in R
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ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1ch
ange
in R
CA20
11 R
CA >
1
Machinery and equipment n.e.c
Electrical mach., apparatus n.e.cMotor vehicle, trailers,semi-trailer
Chemicals and chemical productsComputer, electronic, and optical
Other transport equipment
Finance and insurance
Real estate activities
Renting of machinery, equipmentComputer and related activities
Research and development,other
Medium/high-tech
manufacturing
High-tech manufacturing
Business services (more
complex)
Skills characteristic provides opportunity for specialisationCould explore wide spectrum of specialisation
opportunities
Sweden’s specialisation in most technologically advanced industries is not fully supported by the
skills of its population
21
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
Limited share of low‐skilled workers
To participate in GVCs, ensure that participation translates into productivity growth and limit risk of employment loss, increased inequality and poor job quality
Developing skills To ensure that participation in GVCs translates into good economic and social outcomes, countries need to raise skill outcomes
Advanced skills To specialise in technologically advanced industries, the quality of skills at the top end of the skill distribution are important
Increasing participation in GVCs
How successfully have countries extended their participation in GVCs by importing foreign inputs for exports and producing inputs used in other countries inputs
Specialised in advanced industries
Specialisation in technologically advanced industries is linked to value creation, innovation and productivity gains (revealed comparative advantage)
Increasing specialisation in advanced industries
How quickly has the revealed comparative advantage grown
Increasing productivity
Increased participation in GVCs can lead to productivity gains through many channels, including specialisation, increased competition and technology diffusion
Increasing employment
Participation in GVCs can affect employment through both job destruction and job creation
Improving social outcomes
Increased integration in GVCs can affect wages and inequalities, labour‐market security and the quality of the working environment
Globalisation is being questioned
AUS
AUT
BEL
CAN CZE
DNK
ESTFIN
FRA
DEU
GRC
HUN
ISL
ISRITA
JPNKOR
LUX
MEXNLD
NZL
NOR
POL
PRT
SVK
SVN ESP
SWE
TUR
GBR
USA
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Change in the Gini coefficient
Change in backward participation in GVCs
IRL
Inequalities have increased or decreased in countries that have increased their participation in GVCs
Source: OECD Trade in Value Added Database (TiVA); OECD Income Distribution Database.
2000‐12
22
23
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
24
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
Germany
Korea
Poland
Seized the benefits of GVCs by increasing participation in GVCs, increasing specialisation in advanced industries and delivering better
outcomes
25
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
Germany
Korea
Poland
UK
US
Denmark
Ireland
Increased participation in GVCs but have seen weak outcomes, in part because of insufficient skills
26
Limite
d share of
low‐skilled workers
Develop
ing skills
Advanced
skills
Increasing
pa
rticipation in
GVC
s
Specialised
in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
specialisation in
advanced
indu
strie
s
Increasing
prod
uctiv
ity
Increasing
em
ploymen
t
Improving social
outcom
es
Germany
Korea
Poland
UK
US
Denmark
Ireland
Sweden
Japan
Could benefit more from participation in GVCs by deepening specialisation in technologically advanced industries and by
increasing productivity and employment
Implications for education and training policies
Implications for: Education and training policies
27
Implications for skills policies
28
• Improve quality of education and training• Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications
There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications
• Better connect the worlds of learning and workCountries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills developmentDon’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one
Equip graduates with reliable skills‐based qualifications
0
10
20
30
40
50
60%
Percentage of young graduates from university with a low level (level 2 or below) of numeracy skillsTertiary‐type A only, 20‐34 years‐old, 2012 or 2015
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015). 29
Remove barriers to further skills developmentPercentage of adults participating in education and training by employment status, 2012 or 2015
30
0102030405060708090
100
Employed Unemployed Inactive%
Source: OECD calculations based on OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012 and 2015).
Implications for skills policies
31
• Improve quality of education and training• Ensure relevant and reliable qualifications
There is huge variation in the skills of people with similar qualifications
• Better connect the worlds of learning and workCountries comparative advantage emerges from interactions between skills characteristics and industry requirements
• Remove barriers to further skills developmentDon’t expect workers to accept they lose their jobs if they don’t feel prepared to get or create a new one
• Enhance international collaboration on skills– GVCs make it harder for countries to recoup their investment in skills– Recognition of qualifications– Financing arrangements that reflect the distribution and benefits of
costs across countries
Implications for education and training policies
Policy effort has to go beyond education and training policies
32
Adopt a whole‐of‐government approach
33
Co‐ordinate these policies with other policy domains: Industry Innovation Trade Investment And others…
Look at full range of reforms affecting skills: Education and training Labour market Firms’ organisation and management
practices Migration And others…
Countries can shape their potential to be part of global education, innovation and research networks
Countries' potential to be part of global education, innovation and research networks, a synthetic indicator
Source: OECD calculations based on the OECD Patent Database; OECD Main Science, Technology and Industry Indicators Database; OECD Education at a Glance Database; OECD (2015), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015: Innovation for growth and society.
34
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Index
Receiving funding for R&D from abroad (private and public)
Receiving funding for R&D from abroad (private and public)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Index
Attracting international students and high-skilled workers
Receiving funding for R&D from abroad (private and public)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Index
Developing international co-operation in innovation and researchAttracting international students and high-skilled workersReceiving funding for R&D from abroad (private and public)
Implications for education and training policies
Implications for: Education and training policies
35
Making global value chains work for all
Invest in skills
Adopt a whole‐of government approach to
skills
Co‐ordinate this effort with other policies
Develop international cooperation
Equip the population with strong mixes of skills, well signalled by qualifications, aligned with industries’ needs
Coordinate education, training, labour market, migration and other policies affecting the development and use of skills
Align skills policies with trade, investment, innovation, and industry policies to make the most of GVCs
As production, education, and innovation become internationalised, countries need to better co‐operate on
their policies
Thank you!http://bit.ly/skillsout17
36
Grundke, R., S. Jamet, M. Kalamova, and M. Squicciarini, (2017), “Having the right mix:The role of skill bundles for comparative advantage and industry performance in GVCs”,OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers, 2017/03, OECD Publishing, Paris.http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/892a4787‐en.
Grundke, R., S. Jamet, M. Kalamova, and M. Squicciarini (forthcoming), “Skills and globalvalue chains: Characterisation and evidence”, OECD Science, Technology and IndustryWorking Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Further reading