SK RE Forum 2019 - realestateforums.com · . SK Real Estate Forum 2019. Panel Discussion –To...
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www.margoliscapital.com SK Real Estate Forum 2019 Panel Discussion – To Illustrate: Who are the major sources of capital? Where are credit spreads and loan availability headed? Why do lenders approach opportunities differently? How are lenders assessing risk and stress testing deals? 1
Transcript of SK RE Forum 2019 - realestateforums.com · . SK Real Estate Forum 2019. Panel Discussion –To...
www.margoliscapital.com
SK Real Estate Forum 2019Panel Discussion – To Illustrate:
Who are the major sources of capital?
Where are credit spreads and loan availability headed?
Why do lenders approach opportunities differently?
How are lenders assessing risk and stress testing deals?
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148
2010YE 2011YE 2012YE 2013YE 2014YE 2015YE 2016YE 2017YE 2018YE
Term Mortgages
Senior Unsecured
267
290267
152
Market Size($billions)
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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Term Mortgages
First Mortgage Bonds
Senior Unsecured
Annual Volume($billions)
5350
25
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BANK28%
CRED14%
INS11%
NHA16%
IM19%
CMBS0%
UNSEC10%
OTHER2%
By Funding Source
Origination
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OriginationOFFICE
21%
RETAIL18%
INDUSTRIAL13%
MULTI-FAMILY
43%
OTHER5%
By Asset Type
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Origination
ON42%
AB9%
BC19%
QC19%
REST OF CANADA
11%
By Region
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BANKS CREDIT UNIONS NHA MBS INVESMENTMANAGERS
SENIOR UNSECURED INSURANCECOMPANIES
CMBS
Who has been supplying the market?2012-2017*
*2018 data available to survey participants only
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0
100
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700
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Spre
ad (b
ps)
Bond / Mortgage Correlation5-Year Canadian BBB Corporate Spreads vs.
5-Year Canadian Commercial Mortgage Spreads
5-Year Mortgage Spread 5-Year BBB Corporate Spread
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Spre
ad (b
ps)
Historical 5-Year Commerical Mortgage Spreads
33-Year 5-Year Average Spread - 172
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2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Inte
rest
Rat
e
Historical 5-Year Commercial Mortgage Rates
33-Year Average 5-Year Mortgage Rate - 6.87%
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SK Real Estate Forum 2019Panel Discussion – To Illustrate:
Who are the major sources of capital?
Where are credit spreads and loan availability headed?
Why do lenders approach opportunities differently?
How are lenders assessing risk and stress testing deals?
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