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six steps to climate leadership:the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
July 2015
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CONTENTS
35 WhattheALPpromisedpriortothe2014election
SUBTITLE
22 Step1:Committoagoalofdecarbonisation
23 Step2:StrengthentheClimate Change Act24 Step3:MakeVictoriathehomegroundfor
Australia’srenewableenergyindustry
26 Step4:Cutenergywaste
30 Step5:Retireourdirtiestpowerstations
31 Step6:RuleoutnewfossilfuelprojectsforVictoria
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14 California
16 Ontario
18 Scotland
20 OtherAustralianstates
07 ClimatechangeposesbigriskstoVictoria
08 Victoria is part of the problem
10 Runningoutoftime
11 Jobs of the future
12 Thefoundationsarealreadyinplace
conclusion
appendix
six steps to climate leadership for victoria
PAGE
04 Thecaseforaction
what does leadership look like now?
why victoria needs to lead
introduction
Lead Author: Dr Nicholas Aberle
Email:[email protected]
Phone:(03)93418112
ContributingAuthors:AnneMartinelli,NickRoberts,MarkWakeham,GregFoyster
©EnvironmentVictoriaJuly2015.
Level2,60LeicesterSt,CarltonVictoria3053
(03)93418100,[email protected]
www.environmentvictoria.org.au
This report is printed on 100% recycled paper.
4 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
TheAndrewsGovernmentwaselectedinNovember2014withapromisetorestoreVictoria’sstatusasaleaderontheenvironmentandclimatechange.AfterfouryearsofbackwardstepsundertheCoalition,thispromiseiswelcomeandprovidesanopportunitytoputVictoriabackonasustainablefooting,growjobsandnewindustries,andsecurethewellbeingofcurrentandfutureVictorians.
Thepromisetoleadonclimatechangecomesatacrucialmoment.Fordecadeswehaveusedourland,waterandforestecosystemsunsustainably,culminatinginthemega-trendsofclimatechange,resourcescarcityandecosystemdepletion.Oftentheseareviewedasenvironmentalproblems,buttheyposeagravethreattooureconomyandwellbeing,1particularlyforvulnerablepeopleandcommunities.
Chartingapathtowardsasustainable,prosperousandfairVictoriawillrequirestrongleadershipandadeparturefromthebusiness-as-usualapproachtoenvironmentalpolicythathasledustothispoint.
Nowhereistheneedforleadershipmoreurgentthaninclimatepolicy.
Theclimatecrisisisworseningandtimeisrunningout.Thewindowofopportunityfordecisiveactiontostayunderthe‘guardrail’oftwodegreesofwarmingisrapidlyclosing.What’smore,crediblevoicesarenowsayingthatevenatwo-degreetargetismuchtoohigh,carryinganunacceptableriskofcatastrophicallydestabilisingtheclimateonwhichhumancivilisationdepends.Meetingalowertargetwilldemandevenswifteranddeepercutstoourcarbonpollution.
Therearesomeencouragingsignsofclimateleadershiparoundtheworld.Californiahassetambitiousemissionreductiontargetsandisrampingupinvestmentinrenewableenergy,whileOntarioinCanadahasphasedoutallitscoalpowerstationsoverthelasttenyears.EvenChina–theworld’slargestconsumerofcoal–isshiftingitsenergymixtowardsrenewables,increasinginvestmentinrenewableenergyby33percentin2014,reaching$83billioninasingleyear.2
The case for action
01introduction
1 ‘TheFutureEconomyProject:TheeconomicimpactofdiminishingnaturalcapitalinVictoria,’NousGroup,commissionedbyTheFutureEconomyGroup(2014).http://www.futureeconomy.com.au/download-reports/
2http://fs-unep-centre.org/publications/global-trends-renewable-energy-investment-2015
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Untilrecently,renewableenergyhadalsobeengrowingstronglyinAustralia,creatingjobsandinvestmentandshowingpositivesignsforthedecarbonisationofoureconomy.
However,inaction,halfmeasuresandpoliticalback-trackingoverrecentyearsbyCoalitiongovernmentsatthestateandfederallevelhavecostusmuchofthatprogress.Inparticular,thecurrentfederalgovernment’smovestoabolishthecarbonpriceandslashtheRenewableEnergyTargethavehobbledtherenewableenergyindustry,denyingVictoriabillionsofdollars’worthofinvestment,thousandsofjobsinregionalareas,andacleanandhealthysourceofelectricity.
Intheabsenceofnationalleadershiponclimate,theVictorianGovernmentneedstostepintothebreachwithdecisiveactionofitsown.
TheParisclimatesummitinlate2015isanopportunityforworldleaderstofinallycommittothenecessaryactionforasafeclimate.ItisalsoanopportunityfortheVictorianGovernmenttopledgeitsownemissionsreductionsplanontheworldstage,bypassinglacklustreanddangerousfederaltargets.
SolarpanelsbeinginstalledontopofaWalmartstoreinCalifornia.
Decarbonisation: theremovalorreductionofcarbonfromenergysources,aimingforzeroemissions.
6 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
AwindfarminthecentralhighlandsofVictoria,nearBallarat.
Thisreportoutlinesanagendaforclimateleadershipin2015,andsetsoutsixambitiousyetachievablestepstheVictorianGovernmentshouldtaketodeliverthatleadership:
1. Commit to a goal of decarbonisation for the state
2. Strengthen the Climate Change Act
3. Make Victoria the home ground for Australia’s renewable energy industry
4. Cut energy waste
5. Retire our dirtiest power stations
6. Rule out new fossil fuel projects for Victoria
ThesearethemostimportantstepsrequiredforleadershiponclimatechangeinVictoria,thoughadditionalmeasurescouldbeincludedinacomprehensivepolicyagenda,tacklingemissionssourcessuchaslanduseandagriculture.
Thisreportdealsexclusivelywith‘mitigation’–thetaskofcuttingemissionstoreducetheextentofclimatechange.EnvironmentVictoriawilladdresstheimportanceof‘adaptation’–planningtoreducetheconsequencesofclimatechangeimpacts–infuturework.Thestategovernmentisrequiredtodevelopanadaptationplanbytheendof2016.
TheAndrewsGovernmenthasstartedtooutlineitsprioritiesforclimatechangepolicyandreducingVictoria’semissions.Now,morethansixmonthsafterbeingelected,it’stimefortheVictorianGovernmenttoturnitspromiseintoanactionplanforasafeclimateandcleanenergyeconomy.
CHAPTER 01Introduction – CONTINUED
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As the global momentum to reduce emissions inevitably gathers pace, coal-dependent communities such as the Latrobe Valley will have to develop new economic opportunities.
Victoriaisextremelyvulnerabletotheimpactsofclimatechange.
Australiahasalwaysbeenalandofdroughtsandfloodingrains,buttheevidenceclearlyshowsthatwithoutstrongactiontoreduceemissions,extremeweatherwillbecomemorefrequent,moreintenseandmoredamaginginthefuture.
Byjust2020,Victoriacouldbeexperiencing25percentmoreCodeRedbushfiredangerdayseachsummer,and70percentmoreby2050.3 Moreintenserainfallandfloodingwillcarryever-largerdamagebills.Morefrequentandextremeheatwaveswillcostlivesanddamageinfrastructure,asourbodiesandservicesfailtocopewithextendedhighertemperatures.Averagemaximumtemperaturescouldbetwodegreeshigherthannow.4TheCSIROhasestimatedthatthenationalpricetagtoreplacehomesandbuildingsdamagedbyextremeweathereventsandsealevelrisebetweennowand2100couldtop$1.3trillion.5
Thehealthandwellbeingrepercussionsofextremeweatherarelikelytofallhardestonthepoorandvulnerable–thosealreadylivingwithchronichealthconditions,inpoorqualityhousingandwithalimitedfinancialbuffer.Thisisontopoftheairpollution-relatedhealthconsequencesbeingexperiencedbycoal-dependentcommunitiessuchastheLatrobeValley–alreadyoneofthemostdisadvantagedcommunitiesinVictoria.
Thenaturalenvironmentalsosuffersthroughthesechanges.Reducedfreshwateravailability,lossofalpineecosystems,increasedwatertemperatures,andoceanacidificationwillpushmanyspeciestothebrinkofextinction.6Agriculture,Victoria’slargestexportindustry,isfundamentallydependentonhealthylandandwaterresourcesandisvulnerabletothevagariesoftheweatheratthebestoftimes.Inachangingclimate,rainfallinthecrucialspringgrowingseasoncouldfallby20percentoverthenext50years;7extremeheatcanreducefruit
Climate change poses big risks to Victoria
02Why Victoria needs to lead
3‘ClimateChange–Victoria:TheScience,OurPeopleandOurStateofPlay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).
4http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-report-victorian-springs-to-dry-temperatures-to-rise-20141206-1216xq.html
5http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-12-09/damage-bill-for-extreme-natural-disasters-could-top-1-trillion/5955734
6‘ClimateChange–Victoria:Thescience,ourpeopleandourstateofplay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).
7http://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-change-report-victorian-springs-to-dry-temperatures-to-rise-20141206-1216xq.html
8 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
CHAPTER 02why victoria needs to lead – CONTINUED
cropsby70percentandseverelyreducedairyoutput;wheatqualitycouldfallby34percentby2050.8Inafuturecharacterisedbylongerandmorefrequentdroughts,extremeheat,severeandunseasonalstormsandfewercoldspells,Victoria’sagriculturalproductivitywillbehithard.
Victoria’sheavyrelianceonburningbrowncoaltogenerateelectricityalsomakesuseconomicallyvulnerable.Astheglobalmomentumtoreduceemissionsinevitablygatherspace,coal-dependentcommunitiessuchastheLatrobeValleywillhavenochoicebuttodevelopneweconomicopportunities.Managingthattransitionpoorlywouldimposefurthereconomicandsocialupheavalonacommunitystillreelingfromelectricityprivatisationinthe1990s.
Victoriamattersintheinternationalemissionsreductiondebateandhasasignificantroleindrivingurgentactiononclimatechange.
Over80percentofVictoria’selectricityisgeneratedbyburningbrowncoal,9makingusoneofthemostpollutingstatesinoneofthemostpollutingcountriesintheworld.ArecentanalysisinNature Climate Change foundAustraliahasthesecondmostpollutingelectricitysectorintheworld,behindonlyIndia.10Victoria’sfleetofbrowncoalgeneratorsissignificantlyabovethenationalaverageemissionsintensity(emissionsperunitofelectricityprovided).
In2013,Victoria’sannualemissionswere120milliontonnesofgreenhousegases.Withapopulationof5.7millionpeople,thatamountstoannualemissionsof21tonnesperperson.Thiscomparesverypoorlywithotherdevelopednationsofroughlythesamesize.Norway,DenmarkandFinland–alladvancedcountrieswithhighstandardsoflivingandthrivingeconomies–havealmostidenticalpopulationstoVictoriaandsimilarGDPs,butallthreecountriesarearoundhalfaspollutingasVictoria(10.2,9.1and12.5tonnesperperson,respectively).Thisshowsthathighlevelsofcarbonpollutionisnotjustasymptomofhavingadevelopedeconomy(seeFigure1).
Victoria is part of the problem
Norway, Denmark and Finland all have a similar population size and GDP to Victoria, but around half the emissions per person.
8‘ClimateChange–Victoria:Thescience,ourpeopleandourstateofplay,’CommissionerforEnvironmentalSustainability(2012).
9‘Victoria’sEnergyStatement,’DepartmentofStateDevelopment,BusinessandInnovation(2014).
10‘Keythresholdforelectricityemissions,’ChristopherKennedy,Nature Climate Change 5,179–181(2015)doi:10.1038/nclimate2494.
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Anddespitetwodecadesofpolicyonclimatechange,Victoria’semissionsarestillwellabove1990levels–oftenusedasthebaselineyearforcomparingemissionsreductions(Figure2).
Almost50percentofVictoria’semissionscomefromfourlargebrowncoalpowerstationsintheLatrobeValley.Thishighlightsnotonlytheproblembutalsotheopportunitytomakesignificantcutstoour
Figure2.Victoria’semissionssince1990.
Figure1.GDPpercapitaversusemissionspercapitainfourjurisdictions.
10 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
emissions.Duringthetwoyearsthefederalcarbonpricewasinplace,pollutionfromthesepowerstationsfell,buthasrisenagainsincethecarbonpricewasrepealedin2014(Figure3).11
Theinternationaldebateaboutemissionsreductiontargetsisframedintermsofcarbonbudgetsfor‘allowableemissions’whichwouldgiveusa33,50or66percentchanceoflimitingwarmingtolessthantwodegrees.12 Governmentswouldnotallowaninfrastructureprojecttoproceedifithada33percentchanceofcatastrophicfailure,soourclimatetargetsshouldbesimilarlylowrisk.Atthecurrentconcentrationofemissionsalreadyintheatmosphere,weonlyhavea90percentchanceofavoidingtwodegreesofwarming.Furtheremissionswillfurtherreduceourchancesoflimitingtemperatureincreasestotwodegrees.13
Inotherwords,thecarbonbudgetforlimitingglobalwarmingtoundertwodegreeswithahighdegreeofcertaintyhasalreadybeenspent.
Thereisalsogrowingconcernthatevenatwodegreetargetismuchtoohigh,andthatcriticaltippingpointsmaybereachedatlowertemperatures.AsrespectedclimatescientistKevinAndersonhasnoted,atwo-degreeincreaseisthetransitionfromdangeroustoextremelydangerousclimatechange.14Wenowknowthateverygramofgreenhousegasisdoingusadditionaldamage.
CHAPTER 02why victoria needs to lead – CONTINUED
Figure3.Victoria’semissionsbysource.
running out of time
11Howthispost-carbonpriceincreaseinelectricityemissionsaffectsoverallstateemissionsisnotyetclear.Comprehensivestate-wideemissionsdatafor2014willnotbeavailableuntil2016.
12‘SummaryforPolicyMakers,WorkingGroup1,AssessmentReport5,’IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(2013),p27.http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/
13‘Recount:Itstimeto‘DotheMath’again,’DavidSpratt(2015).http://www.nocarbonbudget.info/
14‘Beyond‘dangerous’climatechange:Emissionscenariosforanewworld,’KevinAnderson&AliceBows,Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A(2011)vol369,20-44.
Loy Yang A Hazelwood
Yallourn Loy Yang B
Transport Other Energy
Industrial Processes Agriculture
Waste Deforestation
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15Forexample:‘DelayingclimateactionwouldbecostlyforAustraliaandtheworld,’WWFAustralia(2015),http://www.wwf.org.au/news_resources/resource_library/?13780/Delaying-climate-action-would-be-costly-for-Australia-and-the-world;‘Thecostofdelayingactiontostemclimatechange,’TheWhiteHouseCouncilofEconomicAdvisers(2014),https://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2014/07/29/new-report-cost-delaying-action-stem-climate-change.
16‘Renewables2015:GlobalStatusReport,’REN21(2015).http://www.ren21.net/status-of-renewables/global-status-report/
17https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/policy-advocacy/renewable-energy-target/why-we-need-the-renewable-energy-target.html
18http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/environment-commissioner-kate-auty-quits-drops-bucket-20140305-347ln.html
19‘StateandTrendsofCarbonPricing,’WorldBank(2014).https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2014/05/28/state-trends-report-tracks-global-growth-carbon-pricing
The jobs of the future are here in the present, and will gravitate to jurisdictions with supportive policy settings.
Thesoonerwecanachievezeronetemissions,thebetter.Tinkeringaroundtheedgesnowandrelyingondeeperemissionscutsdecadesintothefutureisnotaviableoption.15
ToquoteWinstonChurchill,“Theeraofprocrastination,ofhalf-measures,ofsoothingandbafflingexpedients,ofdelays,iscomingtoitsclose.Initsplaceweareenteringaperiodofconsequences.”
Reducingemissionsatthenecessaryspeedandscalewillrequireafundamental,globalshifttocleanenergy.Countriesandstatesthatmakethistransitionandmanageiteffectively–spreadingthecostsandbenefitsfairly–willsharetheprosperityofthetwenty-firstcentury.Thosethatdon’triskbeingleftbehind.
Renewableenergyisalreadycreatingenormousnumbersofjobsincountriesthatareactivelypromotingtheindustrywithpositivepolicysettings.Globally,annualinvestmentinrenewableenergyhasexceeded$USD200billionforthepastfiveyearsandhasoutpacedinvestmentinfossilfuels.Thejobsofthefuturearehereinthepresent,andwillgravitatetojurisdictionswithsupportivepolicysettings.
In2014,Germanyhadanestimated371,000peopleemployedinrenewableenergy;theUShasalmost250,000workersinsolarandwindalone.16Australia’sCleanEnergyCouncilestimatesthat,in2012,24,000Australianswereemployedinrenewableenergy.HadtheFederalRenewableEnergyTargetremainedat41,000gigawatthours(GWh),theindustrywasprojectedtocreateafurther18,400jobs.17
ThepastfouryearsinVictoriasawaracetothebottombythestateCoalitiongovernment.TheCoalitionscrappedalmosteveryclimatechangeprogram,createdbarrierstorenewableenergy,slashedenergyefficiencyprogramsandeveninstructedgovernmentdepartmentsnottomentionthewords‘climatechange’.18
Atthenationallevel,thecurrentAustraliangovernment–lobbiedbythefossilfuelandminingindustries–hasdismantledtheclimatepolicyframeworkputinplacebythepreviousGillardGovernment.Australiahasbecomethefirstcountryintheworldtoscrapanemissionstradingschemeatatimewhentherestoftheworldismovingintheoppositedirection.AccordingtotheWorldBank,about40countriesandover20sub-nationaljurisdictionsareputtingapriceoncarbon,witheightnewcarbonmarketsstartingin2013alone.19Atthesametime,thelengthyreviewoftheRenewableEnergyTargetcausedcripplingbusiness
jobs of the future
12 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
uncertainty.In2014,investmentinlarge-scaleprojectsdropby88percent.
Stategovernmentsarerealisingtheenormousenvironmentalandinvestmentpotentialofstrongleadershipintheclimatechangeandrenewableenergypolicyarenas.
WithlittlesignoftheCanberraleadershipvacuumabating,theneedforVictoriatoprovidedecisiveactiononclimatechangeandrenewableenergyhasneverbeengreater.
The 2010 Victorian Climate Change White Paper,developedbytheBrumbyGovernmentandreleasedintheALP’sfinalmonthsinoffice,outlinedaleadershipagendaonclimatechange,witharangeofinnovativepoliciesandprograms.Thisagenda,however,wasdevelopedtoolateandtheALPneverhadthechancetodeliverit.UndertheCoalitiongovernmentthatfollowed,Victoriatookmanybackwardsstepswhiletherestoftheworldmovedahead.
SinceitselectioninNovember2014,theAndrewsGovernmenthasshownencouragingsignsitintendstoplayaleadershiproleinkeypolicyareasandwillavoidtheALP’spreviousmistakeofdevelopingclimatepolicytoolateinitstermofgovernment:
EnergyMinisterLilyD’AmbrosiotoldParliamentinFebruary2015that“wewillonceagainleadthecountrywhenitcomestochangingourenergymix,reducingourenergyconsumptionandensuringthatthefutureiscleaner,brighter,healthierandsaferforeverysingleVictorian”.
Afterrollingbackplanningbarrierstowindfarms,EnvironmentandClimateChangeMinisterLisaNevillesaid:“We’verestartedthewindfarmindustryandwe’recommittedtoonceagainbeingaleaderontacklingclimatechange.”Inanearlierspeech,shesaid,“ifwearen’tdoingallwecantotackleclimatechangewewillnotseeoureconomyadvance”.20
The ALP policy paper Our Environment, Our Future,releasedinthelead-uptotheNovember2014election,identifiedclimatechangeas“oneofthemostcriticalissuesfacingVictoria”.
CHAPTER 02why victoria needs to lead – CONTINUED
The foundations are already in place
20SpeechattheAustralianCoastalCouncilsConference,13March2015.http://seachangetaskforce.org.au/2015/03/16/victorian-government-committed-to-improve-coastal-management/
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21http://www.araratadvertiser.com.au/story/2962773/ararat-council-praised-for-wind-energy-support/
Onrenewableenergy,PremierDanielAndrewshassaid:“Victoriaisopenforbusiness.InvestorswanttocometoVictoriaandbackrenewableenergy.”MrAndrewsdescribedwindfarmrulechangesasthe“mostpositivesignaltothewindenergyindustryinfourlongyears.It’sgoodfortheplanet,butit’sgoodforeconomicdevelopmentaswell”.21
Buttimeisshortandourenvironmentandourcommunitiesneedrealactionandleadershipfromgovernmenttoday.
Australia’sCleanEnergyCouncilestimatesthat,in2012,24,000Australianswereemployedinrenewableenergy.
14 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
WhileVictoriawentbackwards,otherjurisdictionsmadesignificantprogress.Thebarhasbeenraisedinstatementsofambition,indeliveryofresultsandinwhatthesciencesaysisnecessarytoavoidtheworstimpactsofclimatechange.
Internationally,leadingcountriesarepreparingtomakestrongcommitmentsattheParisclimateconferenceinNovember/December2015.22Butactionisalsobeingtakenatthesub-nationallevelinmanyplaces.Withfederalpolicyfailingtorealisetheopportunity,thereisamplescopetomatchtheeffortsandresultsoftheseotherjurisdictions.
Key points:
40% emissions reductions by 2030, and 80% by 2050
The ‘Go Solar California’ program has delivered 2300 MW of solar panels, with a target of 3000 MW by 2016
California,likeVictoria,willbehithardbyclimatechange.Itiscurrentlyinthegripofitsworst-everdrought.Recognisingtherisks,GovernorJerryBrownhascommittedhisstatetoanemissionsreductiontargetof40percentbelow1990levelsby2030.HispredecessorArnoldSchwarzeneggerhadalreadysetatargetof80percentreductionsby2050,butGovernorBrownintroducedtheinterimtargettohelpdriveearlycutstoemissions,ratherthandelayingaction.
TheGovernorhassaidthat“we’regoingtotakewhateverstepsareneededtogetthejobdone,becauseourfuturedependsonit”.23 The stateisexpectedtoreturntoits1990emissionslevelsby2020,withfurtherreductionstofollow.
03What does leadership look like now?
california
22http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/g7-urgency-on-climate-raises-hopes-for-paris-27365
23http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-orders-emission-targets-for-climate-change-20150429-story.html
24http://www.latimes.com/local/politics/la-me-pol-brown-inauguration-20150106-story.html#page=1
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Brownhasadded:“TakingsignificantamountsofcarbonoutofoureconomywithoutharmingitsvibrancyisexactlythesortofchallengeatwhichCaliforniaexcels…Thisisexciting,itisboldanditisabsolutelynecessaryifwearetohaveanychanceofstoppingpotentiallycatastrophicchangestoourclimatesystem.”24BrownrecentlycommencedanunprecedentedfourthtermasGovernorandisnowbuildinganallianceofotherstatesinNorthAmericapledgingdecisiveactiononclimatechange.25
Californiahasarangeofprogramstodriveemissionsreductions.TheGoSolarCaliforniaprogram,forexample,hasdeliveredover2300megawatts(MW)ofsolarpanels,withatargetof3000MWby2016.Thestate’s Climate Change Scoping Paperoutlinesinitiativesforallsectorsoftheeconomy,fromrenewableenergyandenergyefficientbuildingstotransport,agricultureandwaste.
SolarthermaltowerintheMojavedesert,California.
FormerCalifornianGovernorArnoldSchwarzeneggertoursthetheNextEraHarperLakesolarpowerstationinHinkley,California.
25http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-jerry-brown-california-international-climate-change-20150519-story.html
16 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Key points:
First jurisdiction in North America to phase out all coal
Emissions reduced to below 1990 levels
Emissions standards for coal power stations less than 1/3 of Hazelwood in Victoria
Ontario,Canada’smostpopulousprovince,ishometo13.5millionpeople(about36percentofCanada’spopulation)anduntilrecentlysourcedabout25percentofitselectricityfromcoal.
Toreducebothgreenhousegasemissionsandthehealthimpactsofcoal(anestimatedpublichealthburdenof$3billionannually),Ontariohasembarkedonasystematicstrategytophaseoutcoal.PremierKathleenWynnetoldUSofficialsinWashingtonofextremeweathereventsthathaverockedOntario:“That’snotadistantorpotentialthreat.ThatisachangingclimatethatisdestroyingthelivelihoodofpeopleIserve.”26
Ontario’sphase-outofallcoalpowerstationsoverthepasttenyearsmakesitthefirstjurisdictioninNorthAmericatoeliminatecoalasasourceofelectricity.Itdidsobypromotingcleanerformsofelectricity(suchasthroughfeed-intariffs)andreducingdemand(suchasthroughimprovedstandardsforresidentialandcommercialbuildingsandmoreefficientappliances).27Ontarioisalsoabouttojoinamulti-statecap-and-tradeschemewithCaliforniaandQuebec.ThesechangeshavehelpedOntarioreducetheiremissiontobelow1990levels.28
AcrossCanadamorebroadly,newregulationsimposeanemissionsperformancestandardoncoal-firedpowerstations.Thiswilleffectivelycloseallpre-1986coalpowerstationsby2030atthelatest,andpost-1986powerstationsoncetheyare50yearsold(i.e.from2036).Theemissionsperformancestandardforacoalplanttocontinueoperatingbeyondthistimelimitis0.42tonnes/MWh29–lessthanone-thirdoftheemissionsintensityofHazelwoodorYallournpowerstationsinVictoria.
CHAPTER 03what does leadership look like now? – CONTINUED
Ontario
26http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/kathleen-wynne-in-washington-to-talk-climate-change-not-keystone-pipeline-1.3080387
27http://www.slate.com/articles/business/the_juice/2014/08/ontario_s_war_on_coal_how_a_heavily_populated_heavy_industry_canadian_province.html
28‘Ontario’sClimateChangeUpdate,’MinistryoftheEnvironmentandClimateChange(2014).http://www.ontario.ca/document/ontarios-climate-change-update-2014
29‘Coal-FiredElectricityGenerationRegulationsOverview,’EnvironmentCanada.http://www.ec.gc.ca/cc/default.asp?lang=En&n=C94FABDA-1
Ontario’s phase out of all coal power stations over the past ten years makes it the first jurisdiction in North America to eliminate coal as a source of electricity.
OntarioPremierKathleenWynneandAlGoreannounceplansfortheprovincetogo100%coalfree.
18 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Key points:
42% emissions reductions below 1990 by 2020
Five-fold growth in renewable energy since 2004, generating 20,000 GWh a year
Achieved 50% renewable energy in 2014, on track to a target of 100% by 2020
Scottishclimatechangelegislationsetsatargetforemissionsreductionsof42percentbelow1990levelsby2020and80percentbelow1990levelsby2050.Scotlandalsohasannualnetemissionstargets.Whilerecentannualtargetshavenotbeenmet,emissionsarealreadyanimpressive26percentbelow1990levels.
ScotlandhasapopulationandelectricitydemandcomparabletoVictoria,justslightlysmaller.AsinOntario,thekeydriverbehindtheScottishreductioninemissionshasbeenacleanerelectricitysupply(includingafive-foldgrowthinrenewableenergysince2004andtheclosureofamajorcoalpowerstationin2013),complementedbyinvestmentinenergyefficiency.Renewableenergysupplied50percentofScotland’selectricityin2014,morethandoublingsince2010.Enoughprojectshavebeenapprovedtomorethandoubletotalcapacityagain.30 Asacomparison,Scotland’srenewableenergyfacilitiesnowgeneratealmost20,000GWh–equivalentto40percentofVictoria’selectricitydemand.
Rapidgrowthalreadyin2015showsthatScotlandisontracktomeetsitstargetof100percentrenewableenergyby2020.31
scotland
CHAPTER 03what does leadership look like now? – CONTINUED
30‘ReducingemissionsinScotland–2015Progressreport,’CommitteeonClimateChange(2015).http://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/reducing-emissions-in-scotland-2015-progress-report/
31http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/26/3674316/scotland-gets-half-its-power-from-renewables/
Scottish climate change legislation sets a target for emissions reductions of 42 percent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
AnelectricbuspurchasedthroughtheScottishgovernment’sGreenBusFund.
20 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Closertohome,thenewlyelectedQueenslandgovernmentrecentlycommittedtotargetsof50percentrenewableenergyby2030,andonemillionhomeswithsolarpanelsby2020.32
In2008,Victoria,NSWandQueenslandhadroughlythesamenumberofsolarpanelinstallations.Sincethen,thenumberofinstallationsinVictoriahasgrownrapidly,butnotasrapidlyasinotherstates(Figure4).33
Asapercentageoftotaldwellings,uptakeofsolarphotovoltaics(PV)inVictorianowlagswellbehindQueenslandandSouthAustralia(Figure5).
TheACThascommittedto90percentrenewableenergyby2020,relyingpredominantlyonreverse-auctionfeed-intariffs.34TheACTalsohasanemissionsreductiontargetof40percentbelow1990levelsby2020.
InSouthAustralia,renewableenergyalreadysuppliesover36percentofelectricitydemand.35
Figure6showshowtheemissionsofeachstateandterritoryhavechangedsince1990.Comparedtotheothermajoreastcoaststates,Victoriahasalotofgroundtomakeup.Tasmaniahasachievedthebiggestcutsinnetemissions,36chieflythroughreforestationoflandclearedbefore1990.37
other australian states
CHAPTER 03what does leadership look like now? – CONTINUED
Figure4.CumulativesolarphotovoltaicinstallationsbyAustralianstate.
34http://www.environment.act.gov.au/energy/90_percent_renewable
35‘TheAustralianRenewableEnergyRace:Whichstatesarewinningorlosing?’ClimateCouncil(2014).
36DepartmentofEnvironment,StateandTerritoryInventories2013(May2015).http://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/greenhouse-gas-measurement/publications/state-and-territory-greenhouse-gas-inventories-2013
37‘Tasmania’sEmissionsProfile–FactSheet1:GreenhouseGasEmissionsforTasmania2011’,TasmanianClimateChangeOffice(2014).
A reverse-auctioninvitesbidswherethelowestbidwins.Thisprovidesvalue-for-moneyforgovernment.Companiesmakebidsonthefeed-intariff(paymentsfromgovernment)atwhichtheyarepreparedtobuildtheirrenewableenergyproject(typicallyuptoadefinednumberofmegawattsoftotalcapacity).
21
Figure5.PercentageofdwellingswithsolarPVbyAustralianstate.
Figure6.Changeinemissionssince1990(includingLandUse,LandUseChange,Forests)byAustralianstatesince1990.
SA QLD WA NSW VIC ACT TAS NT
TAS SA NSW QLD VIC ACT NT WA
22 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Victoriahasalongwaytocatchuptothecurrentleadersonclimatechange.Thegoodnews,however,isthatthestepstoregainourstatusasanationalandworldleaderarerelativelystraightforward,proveninotherjurisdictionsandachieveable.
step 1Commit to a goal of decarbonisation for the stateAgenuinecommitmenttoactiononclimatechangeneedstorecogniseafundamentalpremise:thatwemustachievezeronetemissionsassoonaspossible.Despiteitsstatedintentiontoleadonclimate,theVictorianGovernmenthasnotyetarticulatedavisionforthefulldecarbonisationoftheeconomy.
Thestategovernmentshouldthereforesetanemissionsreductiontargetthatisconsistentwiththelatestunderstandingofwhatisrequiredtoavoidthefurtherimpactsofclimatechange.Atargetshouldhaveshort,mediumandlongtermtimeframes.Simplysettingatargetfor2030or2050carrieslittleweightbecauseitdoesnotcreateanypoliticalaccountabilityforgovernmentsoftodayandtomorrow.
Modellingconductedin2008bytheNousGroup,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria,foundthatVictoriacouldreduceitsemissionsby54percent(comparedto1990)by2020.38Thisreductionof74milliontonneswasachievablein11years–anannualreductionof6-7milliontonnes.Assumingthisrateofreductionisstillfeasible,asat2015Victoriacouldreduceitsemissionsby32milliontonnesby2020–equivalenttoa25percentreductionon2000levels.Inthecontextoutlinedatthebeginningofthisreport–thatallfurtheremissionswillinevitablyleadtoadditionaldamage–thisshouldbeconsideredtheminimumrateofchangethattheVictorianGovernmentmustaspireto.
04Six steps to climate leadership for Victoria
38‘Turningitaround:ClimatesolutionsforVictoria,’TheNousGroup,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria(2008).
23
ThereisarisktheAustraliangovernmentwillgototheUNclimatesummitinParislaterthisyearwithdisastrouslyunambitiousemissionreductiontargets.PremierAndrewshasanopportunitytofillthisleadershipvacuumbyattendingthesummittoannounceVictoria’scommitmenttodecarbonisetheeconomy,aswellastheshort-termtargetsthatthestatewillachieve.InthemonthsbeforetheParismeeting,PremierAndrewsshouldmakeVictoriaasignatorytotheCompactofStatesandRegions,agroupofsub-nationalgovernmentsmakingcommitmentstoreducetheircarbonemissionsandtoprovideannualreportingonprogresstowardsthosetargets.TheACThasrecentlysigneduptothisCompact,39joiningSouthAustraliaasoneoftwentysignatories.40
step 2Strengthen the Climate Change ActVictoria’s Climate Change Actcurrentlylacksimportantlegislativemeasurestodeliveremissionsreductionsandshouldbestrengthened.
AsEuropeanexperienceshows,directregulationofsulphurdioxide(SO2)andcarbondioxide(CO2)isaveryeffectivewaytoreduceemissions.TheVictorianEnvironmentProtectionAuthority(EPA)shouldbegiventhepowertoregulategreenhousegasemissions,andtothensetindustrialemissionsintensitystandardsthatwillhelpachieveemissionsreductiongoals.ThecurrentreviewsoftheClimate Change ActandtheEPAaretheperfectvehiclestoaddressthis.
Recognisingclimatechangeasaseriousriskinvolvesensuringthatnogovernmentdecisionsexacerbatetheproblem.ForahandfulofActsofParliament,Governmentdecision-makersarerequiredtoconsiderclimatechangeaspartofthedecision-makingprocess.Mostdecisionscarrynosuchrequirement.Tofixthis,Schedule1oftheClimate
Whiteleewindfarm,southofGlasgow,isEurope’slargest.
As at 2015 Victoria could reduce its emissions by 32 million tonnes by 2020 – equivalent to a 25 percent reduction on 2000 levels.
39http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/new-compact-of-states-and-regions-to-help-tackle-climate-change-launched-at-un-summit/
40http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/leading-sub-national-governments-sign-compact-of-states-and-regions/
24 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Change Actshouldextendtoallgovernmentdecisions,includingmajorprojects,transport,planning,economicdevelopment,innovationandprocurement.Otherwise,effortstoreduceemissionsinonesector,suchaselectricity,couldbecancelledoutbyincentivestoincreaseemissionsinanother.Thiswillensureawhole-of-governmentapproachtoclimatechange.
AstrengthenedActneedstointroducepromptannualpublicreportingoftrendsinVictoria’semissions.Currently,aggregateemissionsdataisnotmadepublicuntilonetotwoyearsafterthefact.Ifwecan’tseeareal-timescoreboard,wedon’tknowifwe’remakingprogress,andcan’tadjustoureffortsaccordingly.Thisdataneedstobereleasedtothepublicmuchsooner.
TheemissionsreductiontargetoutlinedinStep1–eitheranannualrateofreductionoraminimum25percenttargetby2020–shouldbere-introducedintothelegislation.
step 3Make Victoria the home ground for Australia’s renewable energy industrySincebeingelected,theAbbottGovernmenthashobbledtheroll-outofrenewableenergyinAustralia.Atthestatelevel,theAndrewsGovernmenthasnowlargelyremovedbarriersaffectingwindfarmdevelopment,butrenewableenergystillprovidesjust12percentofVictoria’selectricity.Weneedacomprehensivepolicyagendatodrivesignificantgrowthinthissector,intheprocesscreatingthousandsofjobs.
Inawelcomemove,theAndrewsGovernmenthasannounceditsintentiontoestablishaVictorianRenewableEnergyTarget(VRET)tocomplementthefederalRenewableEnergyTarget(RET),soastoboosttheshareofrenewablesinourelectricitymix.41AsshowninChapter3,otherjurisdictionshaveachievedveryhighsharesofrenewableenergydespitereadyaccesstofossilfuels.AsatOctober2014,Victoriahad2489MWofwindprojectswithplanningapproval,42which,ifbuilt,woulddeliveralmost$5billionofinvestmentandover2500associatedjobs.43 Thestategovernmentneedstoactquicklytoensuretheseprojectsgoahead.
CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED
Schedule 1 of the Climate Change Act should extend to all government decisions…and the emissions reduction target should be reintroduced into the legislation.
41www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-to-adopt-renewable-energy-target-if-the-abbott-government-allows-it-20150513-gh0vum.html
42http://www.energyandresources.vic.gov.au/energy/sustainable-energy/wind-energy/wind-projects
43http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/06/11/14/44/vic-govt-wants-ret-top-up-change
25
44https://theconversation.com/heres-how-the-states-can-dodge-canberras-renewable-roadblock-42043
45http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-06-26/act-backed-wind-farm-project-to-go-ahead-in-victoria/6574618
46http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/north/darebin-council-approves-special-rate-for-australian-first-solar-saver-scheme-for-pensioners/story-fnglenug-1227055309805;
FederalParliamentrecentlyamendedtheRenewableEnergyTarget(RET)legislation.TheAndrewsGovernmentpushedtorepealsection7Cofthelegislation,whichpreventsstatesfromestablishingtargetsthatrelyontradeablecertificates(asthefederalRETdoes).Theseeffortswereunsuccessful,andsection7Cremains.Victoriacan,however,establishastatetargetforrenewableenergythatisdeliveredbyanothermechanism.TheAndrewsGovernmentshouldnowusereverse-auctionfeed-intariffsora‘contractsfordifference’mechanismthatcouldworksymbioticallywiththefederaltarget.44
ThismodelhasbeenproventoworkbytheACTGovernment.InfactVictoriaisalreadybenefittingfromit–the240MWAraratwindfarmwasfinancedbytheACTreverseauctionworkingincombinationwiththenationalRenewableEnergyTarget.45
TheAndrewsGovernmentcanimmediatelyboostrenewableenergyprojectsbypurchasingmoreGreenPower.ThepercentageofVictorianGovernmentelectricitypurchasedasGreenPowerhasfallenfromapeakof27percentin2010-11tojustonepercentin2013-14.Governmentshouldimmediatelyreturntoits2010-11levelsofGreenPowerandestablishatimelineforincreasingto100percentGreenPower.Thisprocurementcouldbeusedtomakepower-purchaseagreementswithlarge-scalerenewableprojects.
Thegovernmentcouldalsoboostsmallerprojectsandresidentialuptakebyincreasingtheexistingfeed-intarifftobetterreflectthecontributionrooftopsolarmakestoVictoria’spowersupply.Thefeed-intariffcurrentlysitsatalowandunfairsixcentsperkilowatthour(kWh),aboutfivetimeslessthantheretailpriceofelectricitypaidbyhouseholds.Aheadofthe2014election,LaborcommittedtoaskingtheEssentialServicesCommissiontoinvestigatethe“truevalueofdistributedgeneration”.Throughthisprocess,EnvironmentVictoriawillbeadvocatingforfeed-intariffstobeincreasedtomatchretailprices.
WhilemorethanamillionAustralianhouseholdshaveinstalledrooftopsolarsystemsandarebenefitingfromlowerpowerbillsasaresult,low-incomehouseholdswhocan’taffordtheupfrontcostshavebeenmissingout.Withoutgovernmentinterventiontoassistthesehouseholds,wewillnotachievethebroad-scalesolarroll-outweneedtoreduceemissionssubstantially.
InnovativefinancingmodelsoperatingaroundVictoriaeffectivelyaddresstheseupfrontcosthurdles.DarebinCouncil,forexample,recentlyfinancedrooftopsolarinstallationsfor300pensioners,whowillrepaytheCouncil’supfrontcostsviatheirrates.46Thestategovernment
In October 2014 Victoria had 2489 MW of wind projects with planning approval. If built, these projects would deliver almost $5 billion of investment and over 2500 jobs.
26 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
canalsobuildonthesefoundationsatalocalleveltodevelopandfinanceabroad-scaleprogramtoensureallVictorians,regardlessofincome,haveaccesstorooftopsolar.SuchaprogramcouldbebasedonarevolvingfundsimilartotheCleanEnergyFinanceCorporation.
Atthetimeofwriting,EnergyMinisterLilyD’AmbrosiohasintroducedlegislationtoenableallCouncilstouse‘EnvironmentalUpgradeAgreements’tohelpfinancerenewableenergyinstallationsandenergyefficiencyupgradesforbusinesses.47Thisinitiativecouldbeexpandedtoallowhouseholdstobenefitfromeasyaccesstofinance.
Community-scalerenewableenergyprojectsalsoneedtobesupported,bothfinanciallyandnon-financially.Financialsupportcanincludefeed-intariffsorgrantfunding.Non-financialsupportcanincludeprovidingtechnical,legalandfinancialadvicetocommunitygroups,facilitatingpower-purchaseagreementsandgridconnections,andallowingvirtualnetmetering.48ThesupportalreadygiventoprojectsinNewsteadandWoodend49needstobereplicatedonamuchlargerscaletodozensofprojectsacrossthestate.
Betterbatterystorageloomsasagame-changingbreakthroughintheenergysector.Rapidtechnologicaladvanceswillverysooncreatewidespreaddemandforbatterysystems.ThestategovernmentneedstoensurethatVictoriaispreparedfrombothatechnologicalandregulatoryperspectivetowelcomeabroaduptakeofbatterystoragefacilities.
step 4Cut energy wasteGivenVictoria’sheavyrelianceonbrowncoalforelectricitygeneration,oneofthecheapestandfastestwaystocutemissionsistoreduceelectricityconsumptionthroughenergyefficiency.TheInternationalEnergyAgencyrecentlyidentifiedimprovingenergyefficiencyasthenumberoneglobalactiontoachievepeakemissionsby2020andsignificantdeclinesby2030.50
Victoria,liketherestoftheworld,cansignificantlyreduceitsemissionsthroughenergyefficiencymeasures.However,theemissionsbenefitofreducingcoaluseinVictoriaislikelytobemuchgreaterthanindicatedinFigure7,duetotheparticularlyhighemissionsintensityofthestate’sbrowncoalelectricitygeneration.
CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED
The state government should develop and finance a broad-scale program to ensure all Victorians, regardless of income, have access to rooftop solar.
47http://www.premier.vic.gov.au/new-legislation-to-empower-energy-efficient-businesses.
48‘Governmentsupportoptionsforcommunityenergy:Bestpracticeinternationalpolicy’,CommunityPowerAgency,(2014).http://cpagency.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/CPA_Best-Practice-International-Policy_Oct-2014.pdf
49http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/andrews-government-shows-renewed-interest-in-renewables-20150227-13p9v7.html
50‘WorldEnergyOutlook:Specialreportonenergyandclimatechange’,InternationalEnergyAgency(2015).https://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2015/june/iea-sets-out-pillars-for-success-at-cop21.html
27
Quote outside of copy. Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore magna aliquam erat volutpat.
51http://www.theage.com.au/comment/australian-houses-are-just-glorified-tents-in-winter-20150610-ghj2ox
52http://environmentvictoria.org.au/onemillionhomes
53http://environmentvictoria.org.au/onemillionhomes
Improvedenergyefficiencyhasmanyotherbenefits.Cuttingenergywastehelpshouseholdsandbusinessessavemoney.Italsoactstoreducepeakdemand,oneofthekeydriversofrisingelectricityprices.
ThequalityofVictoria’sbuildingstockislowbyworldstandards,whichimposeseconomicaswellashealthandwellbeingimpactsonhouseholdsandthewidereconomy.ArecentstudyfoundthatmorepeoplediefromthecoldinAustraliathaninSweden–notfromextremeeventslikeblizzardsbutfromconditionslikeincreasedbloodpressurecausedbychronicexposuretouncomfortablylowtemperatures.51 Much ofthatcanbeattributedtothepoorqualityofourhousing.
Victoria’spre-2005housingstockaveragesonly2starsintermsofefficiencyperformance,52whichmeansalotoftheexpensive,emissions-intensiveenergyweusetoheatandcoolourhomesissimplyblowingoutofleakywindowsandroofs.
ManyVictorianshavetakenstepstoimprovetheefficiencyoftheirhomesandcutwaste–upgradingtheirinsulation,sealingdraughts,shadingwindowsandinstallingefficientlightingandappliances.Whileeveryhouseisdifferent,inmostcasesspendingaround$5000onefficiencycancuthouseholdenergyuseby40percent(translatingtosavingsof$1000ayearonutilitybills).53
Figure7.Relativecontributionofmeasurestoemissionreductions,globally.50
28 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
However,themassuptakeofenergyefficiencymeasuresrequiredtoachieveambitiousemissionsreductiontargetswillnotoccurwithoutgovernmentinterventionintwokeyareas:
Investinginacomprehensivehouseholdretrofitprogramforlow-incomeandvulnerablehouseholds.
Improvingperformancestandardstodriveinvestmentintherestofourhousingstock.
Aswithrooftopsolar,low-incomehouseholdsareexcludedfromthefinancialandhealthbenefitsofenergyefficiencybecausetheycannotaffordtheupfrontcostsofimprovementsand/orbecausetheyrent.Toaddressthissituation,thegovernmentshouldimplementacomprehensiveprogramtoretrofitVictoria’sonemillionlow-incomehouseholdsby2025.Suchaprogramcouldbedeliveredatleastcostthroughamixof:
governmentinvestment(particularlyinpublichousing)
reformoftheVictorianEnergyEfficiencyTargetscheme
establishmentofinnovativefinancingmechanismssuchason-billfinancingarrangements,aswellastakingadvantageofopportunitiestoinstallrooftopsolaraspartofanintegratedupgrade(seeStep3above).
CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED
Energyefficiencyschemesgeneratejobswhilehelpinghouseholdssaveontheirbills.
29
Asnotedaboveonthefinancingofsmall-scalerenewableenergy,EnergyMinisterLilyD’Ambrosiohasintroducedlegislationtoenable‘EnvironmentalUpgradeAgreements’tohelpfinanceenergyefficiencyupgradesforbusinesses.ThisusesloansthroughCouncilsthatarethenrepaidthroughCouncilrates.
IntroducingminimumenergyandwaterefficiencystandardsatthepointofsaleorleasewouldleverageprivateinvestmentinefficiencyanddrivetheupgradeoftherestofVictoria’shousingstockovertime.
Minimumstandardsforrentalpropertiesareparticularlycritical.Renters,notlandlords,payenergybills,sowithoutminimumstandardslandlordshavelittleincentivetoinvestinimprovedenergyefficiency–particularlyinMelbourne’stightrentalmarket.Improvedstandardsshouldbephasedinandratchetedupovertime,complementedbytargetedfinancialassistancetoassisthomeownersandlandlordstocomply.
Victorialedthewaywhenitintroducedaperformancestandardof5starsfornewhomesandrenovationsin2005,subsequentlyincreasedto6starsin2011.Tomaintainitsleadershipstatus,Victoria’snewhomestandardneedstoberaisedfurthertoreflectadvancesinenergyefficienthomedesignandconstruction.Victoriashouldnowmoveto7stars,withprogressiveincreasesincomingyearstowardsthegoalofzero-net-carbonandwater-efficientnewbuildingsby2020.Attentionalsoshouldbegiventoimprovingcompliance,toensurenewbuildingsactuallyperformtothemandatedstandardinpractice.
VictorianGovernmentoperationsthemselvesarealsoasignificantsourceofemissions.ThegovernmentshouldtakeresponsibilityforimprovingtheperformanceofitsownbuildingstockbyreinstatingtheGreenerGovernmentBuildingsprogramthatwasdiscontinuedbythepreviousgovernment.
TheEnvironmentandResourceEfficiencyPlans(EREP)program,runbytheEPAbutabolishedbythepreviousstategovernment,wasdeliveringhugebenefitstoindustry.Thelow-costschemewassavinglargeenergyandwaterusersapproximately$90millionintotalperyear.54Crucially,theprogramwasmandatory–deliveringefficiencysavingstocompaniesthatwouldnototherwiseconsiderenergyefficiency.MinisterNevilledefendedtheEREPschemeasthethenCoalitiongovernmentsoughttoabolishit,anditshouldnowbere-established.
Improvedefficiencycouldalsocuttransportemissions.Governmentfleetcarpurchasesshouldbehybridsorthemostefficientalternative.
The government should implement a comprehensive program to retrofit Victoria’s one million low-income households by 2025.
54‘EREPProgram–InterimResults,’EPAVictoria(2012),Publication1400.http://www.epa.vic.gov.au/our-work/publications/publication/2012/february/1400
30 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
Astheemissionsintensityoftheelectricitysectorimproves,electriccarswillbecomeabetterenvironmentaloption.Thegovernmentshouldalsointroducemandatoryfuelefficiencystandards,andcreateincentivesforconsumerstochoosemoreefficientcars(e.g.throughstampdutyandregistrationcharges).
Victoria’sfourlargecoal-firedpowerstationsareresponsibleforalmost50percentofthestate’semissions.ItisimpossibletomakeseriousinroadsintoVictoria’scarbonpollutionwithoutaddressingtheoperationofthesepowerstations.
Communitiesthatlivenearthesecoal-firedpowerstationsfaceunacceptablyhighcosts.AnalysisbyHarvardresearchersin2015foundthatairpollutionfromtheLatrobeValleycoalgeneratorscausesanannualhealthburdenof$660milliontothelocalcommunity.Thesocialcostofthegreenhousegasemissionswasestimatedat$2.8billionperyear.55TheHazelwoodminefireandothermining-relatedproblemssuchaslandsubsidence(sinkingoftheearthduetodisturbance)furtheraffectthecommunity.
Upgradesandretrofitstoourageingpowerstationswouldonlymakeasmalldifferencetotheiremissionsandarenotcost-effective.TheAustralianEnergyMarketOperatorhasidentifieda2000MWsurplusofgenerationcapacity,givingthecurrentVictorianGovernmentanimportantopportunitytobegintheplannedphase-outofcoal-firedelectricity.HazelwoodandYallournpowerstationsare1600and1480MWrespectively,sothereisnorisktothereliabilityofsupply–oneofthesepowerstationscouldberetiredimmediatelywithoutaffectingenergysecurity.
Unexpectedannouncementsinearly2015thatthesmallerAngleseaandPortAugustapowerstationswouldclosehavehighlightedtheneedtoplanforinevitableclosures.Neitheroftheseclosureswaspredictedorplanned,disruptinglocalcommunitiesespeciallyinPortAugusta.ThesuddenandunplannedclosureofoneofVictoria’s‘Big4’generatorswouldcreateevengreaterupheaval.
Fallingprofitsforcoalgeneratorsmeansthattherewillcontinuetobeclosures,eitherbecauseofcorporatedecisionstowalkawayfromunprofitableassets,orbecauseincreasingmaintenancecostsofageing
step 5Retire our dirtiest power stations
CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED
The unexpected announcements in early 2015 to close the smaller Anglesea and Port Augusta power stations have highlighted the need to plan for inevitable closures.
55‘CleaningupVictoria’spowersector:ThefullsocialcostofHazelwoodPowerStation,’JordanWard&MickPower,HarvardKennedySchoolofGovernment(2015).http://environmentvictoria.org.au/newsroom/report/cleaning-victoria%E2%80%99s-power-sector
31
plantswillleadtomajormalfunctionsorsafetyincidents.
Since2013,mostofthepowerstationstoretirehavebeenblackcoalplantswithhighermarginalcostsofproduction.Blackcoalplantshaveloweremissionsthanbrowncoalplants,sotheirclosurecouldleadtoanincreaseinemissionsifVictorianbrowncoalgeneratorsincreasetheiroutputinresponse.Perversely,thisiswhatappearstobehappeningatthemomentinthenationalelectricitymarket.
Toreducetheriskofsudden,disruptiveclosure,andtoensurethatcoalclosurehappensinawaythatleadstoareductioninemissions,theVictorianGovernmentshouldimplementamechanismthatprovidescertaintyaroundpowerstationclosuretimelines.Thiscouldtaketheformofemissionsperformancestandardsthatareconnectedtotheproposeddecarbonisationtarget.Themechanismshouldbedesignedtoensurethatthemostpollution-intensivepowerstationsarephasedoutfirst.
Asanessentialpartofasuccessfulphase-outplan,thestategovernmentalsoneedstotaketheleadinestablishingalternativeeconomicdevelopmentplansfortheLatrobeValleyincloseconsultationwiththelocalcommunity.AnyeconomicplanshouldaimtodiversifytheLatrobeValleyeconomyratherthanentrenchingfossilfuel-basedindustries.
Victoriatookmanybackwardsstepsonclimatechangeunderthepreviousstategovernment.Wenowhaveabsolutelynotimetolose.Ouremissionshavebeenrisingwhentheyneedtobefalling,andfallingrapidly.
Togetherwithproperlyfactoringinclimatechangeintoallgovernmentdecisions(asnotedinStep2),theVictorianGovernmentneedstocommittonomorebackwardsstepsbyrulingoutnewfossilfuelprojects.
Thegovernmentshouldmaintainthemoratoriumononshoreunconventionalgas.Gascannolongerbeviewedasanecessaryfuelwithinanorderlytransitiontorenewableenergy,andunconventionalgasextractionprocesseslikefrackingcarryunacceptableriskstoagriculturalproductivityandtheenvironmentalhealthofourpreciouslandandwaterresources.Further,connectingAustralia’seastcoastto
step 6Rule out new fossil fuel projects for Victoria
32 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
internationalgasmarketshasforcedupdomesticgasprices,makinggaslesscompetitiveasawayofgeneratingelectricity.
Disappointingly,andinapparentcontradictiontoitsstatedambitionstobeclimateleaders,theAndrewsGovernmenthasapprovedfournewcoalexplorationlicencesinGippsland.56Theseapprovals,togetherwithacoalretentionlicenceinsouthGippsland,createenormousuncertaintyforaffectedlandowners.MantleMining,therecipientoftheexplorationlicences,wantstodiganundergroundblackcoalminesoitcanexportcoaltoothercountriesforbothpowergenerationandsteel-making.57
TheAndrewsGovernmentneedstocorrectthisaberrationbyannouncingamoratoriumonallnewcoalprojectsinthestate.UNclimatechiefChristianaFiguereshasstatedthisexplicitly:“Thescienceisveryclear,thereisnospacefornewcoal.”58Newcoalprojectsarecompletelyincompatiblewithleadershiponclimatechange.
TheAndrewsGovernmenthasinheritedthreelegacycoalprojectsthatreceivedashareof$75minjointVictorian/federalpublicfundingunderthepreviousstategovernment.Theseprojects,fundedundertheAdvancedLigniteDemonstrationProgram,aimtofindnewusesforbrowncoal,withvariousprocessedcoalproductsprimarilyintendedforexport.Theeconomicsoftheseprojectswerequestionablein2012,59 andsincethenboththermalandmetallurgicalcoalhaveseenfurtherweakeningindemandandsignificantdeclinesinprice.60
Thesecompaniesaremakingarrangementstogetaninitialsupplyofcoalfromexistingmines,butnewprocessingplantscouldultimatelymeannewcoalminesintheLatrobeValley,furtheraddingtothehealthandsafetyburdenonthelocalcommunity.Asnotedabove,newcoalprojectsareinconsistentwithclaimstoclimateleadershipandmustnotbeallowedtoproceed.Governmentshouldwithdrawgrantstothesethreecompaniesattheearliestopportunity,withthemoneyre-directedtogrowingcleanjobsintheLatrobeValley.
CHAPTER 04six steps to climate leadership for victoria – CONTINUED
SnowtownwindfarminSouthAustralia.
UN climate chief Christiana Figueres has stated explicitly: “The science is very clear, there is no space for new coal.”
56http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/labor-grants-new-coal-exploration-licences-in-victoria-20150617-ghq35k.html
57http://www.latrobevalleyexpress.com.au/story/3168963/hydroelectric-project-just-window-dressing/
58http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-will-have-to-move-away-from-coal-un-climate-head-says-20150506-ggvfvz.html
59‘OverburdenedorUndermined?Victoria’sbrowncoal:Aneconomicperspective,’EconomistsatLarge,commissionedbyEnvironmentVictoria(2012).http://environmentvictoria.org.au/content/undermined-or-overburdened-victorias-brown-coal-economic-perspective
60Forexample:www.smh.com.au/business/markets/coal-prices-highly-unlikely-to-recover-in-2015-20150219-13iymh.html
33
Despitealimitedenvironmentalpolicyagendaaheadofthe2014Victorianelection,theAndrewsGovernmentismovingquickly,andhasmadeanumberofpositivestatementsindicatingambitiontoleadonclimatechangeandrenewableenergy.Importantpolicydevelopmentprocessesareunderway,withactionplansforrenewableenergyandenergyefficiencyexpectedbyNovember2015.TheClimate Change Act andtheEPAarealsobothunderreview.
Theseprocessesneedtoaimhighandtheoutcomesneedtobeimplementedpromptly,effectivelyandwithsufficientfundingandresources.AllofthesereviewsareduetobecompletedbeforetheAndrewsGovernment’ssecondstatebudget,dueinMay2016,whichloomsasalitmustestofthegovernment’scommitmenttoitsclimateleadershipaspirations.Thereisnomoretimetowaste.
Byrapidlyrollingoutnewpolicies,theVictoriangovernmentcanbeginthedecarbonisationoftheVictorianeconomy,dramaticallyexpandinvestmentandinnovationinrenewableenergyandenergyefficiency,andcreatethousandsofjobs.TheParisclimatesummitattheendof2015isaperfectopportunityforPremierAndrewstoannouncehisgovernment’splantodelivermeaningfulemissionsreductions,helpingVictoriaandtheworldavoidtheworstofclimatechangewhilebenefittingfromacleanjobsbonanza.
Overthecomingmonthsandyears,EnvironmentVictoriawilltracktheprogressoftheAndrewsGovernmentandfuturestategovernmentsagainstthesixstepstoleadershipthatwehaveoutlinedinthisreport.
05conclusion
34 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
ClimateleadershipwouldseeVictoriadrivedeepcutstocarbonpollutionanddeliverhighlevelsofrenewableenergy,investmentandnewjobsbeforethistermofgovernmentends.ItwouldensurethatthemostvulnerableVictoriansareprotectedfromextremeweatherandareactivelycontributingtoclimatesolutions.ItwouldsetanewbenchmarkforclimateactioninAustralia,demonstratingsuccessandgarneringstrongcommunitysupport.Mostofall,realclimateleadershipwouldgiveVictoriansasenseofpridethattheirstate–themostculturallyprogressiveinthecountry–isfacingthisdiabolicalchallengewithabold,innovativeandambitiousplanforthefuture.
CHAPTER 05conclusion – CONTINUED
35
Our environment, our future - ALP pre-election environment policyLaborwill:
establishthe$20millionNewEnergyJobsFundtoencourageinvestmentintherenewablessectorandfocusonthedevelopmentoftechnologyforthegenerationandstorageofcleanenergy,suchasnewbladetechnologyandadvancedsolarenergy
reducethedwellingbufferzoneforwindprojectsfrom2kmto1km
reviewlegislationandprogramstocommittoanachievablecarbonemissionsreductiontarget
provide‘fairaccess’togridforrenewableprojects
re-opentheHazelwoodminefireinquirytofocusontheissueofminerehabilitationasadirectresultofourcampaign
refocustheroleofSustainabilityVictoriatoassistcommunitieswithclimatechange
investigateimprovingthefuelefficiencyofgovernmentfleetcars
commissionamajorpublicinquiryintotheEPA.
Laboralsocommittedto:
askingtheEssentialServicesCommissiontoinquireintothetruevaluetothegridofdistributedgeneration
What the ALP promised prior to the 2014 Victorian election
06appendix
36 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
ensuringthatenergyretailerscannotdiscriminateagainstrooftopsolarcustomersbychargingextrasupplyfees
providingfinancialsupportforcommunityrenewableenergyprojectsinWoodendandNewstead.
The 2014 Victorian ALP State PlatformOnclimatechange,Laborwill:
ensurethatVictoriaistheleadingAustralianstateindealingwithandrespondingtoclimatechange.Thisincludesfocusingonemissionsreduction,utilisingtargets,implementingenergyefficiencymeasures,creatingaGreenJobsActionPlan
revisegreenhouseemissionreductiontargetsandpursueacomprehensivestrategytoachievethem,includinganewGreenJobsActionPlanandastrengthenedClimate Change Act
legislatetoallowotherlocalCouncilstoreplicatetheCityofMelbourne’s1200Buildingsprogramtohelpcommercialbuildingownersfinanceenergyefficiencyretrofits
supportmandatoryminimumnationalstandardsforallmajorappliances
assessgovernmentfinancialcontributionstomajorprojectsagainstecologicallysustainabledevelopmentcriteriaandmonitoragainstenvironmentalbenchmarks
expandsupportforalternativestocommutingbycarsuchastheuseoffreetransitlanes,car-pooling,morecar-parkingatrailstations,limitsoncentralcityparkingandimprovedaccessibilityforpedestrians
introducemoreenergyefficienturbandesignbasedaroundmixed-usetowncentres
expandgovernmentprogramstoreducedemandforenergybyhouseholds,businessesandgovernmentdepartments,suchastheVictorianEnergyEfficiencyTarget
bettermanageVictoria’svegetationcover,includingworkingwithlandholdersandfederalandlocalgovernmentstoreducenativevegetationclearanceratesandpromoterevegetationandcarbonfarmingasameansofabsorbingcarbondioxide
CHAPTER 06appendix – CONTINUED
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continuetoreducewasteproductionandenergyusebyindustrybylinkingthereductionofgreenhouseemissionstoEPAapprovals
ensurethatallsectionsofsocietyparticipateinthereductionofgreenhouseemissions.
Onenergyefficiency,Laborwill:
aimtoachieveanew‘OneMillionStars’goaltoimprovethecumulativestarratingofallVictorianhomesbyonemillionadditionalstarratingpoints
achievethisthrougharangeofmeasuresincludingincentivesformoreefficientappliancesandbuildingmaterials,informationforbuyersandrenters,strategicfundingandregulatorysupport
consideratarget,andsupportprograms,forimprovingtheenergyefficiencystandardsofexistinghomes;
Reformminimumstandardsforrentalpropertiestoimprovewaterandenergyefficiencystandards
activelypromoteinformationabouttheenergyratingofhomesthatare sold or leased
supportprogramsandincentivestoimprovetheenergyefficiencyofpublicandsocialhousing
investigateinnovativefundingmodelsandincentivestoassistresidentialtenantsandlandlordstoimprovetheenergyefficiencyofhomesandtoassistwiththeinstallationofsolarphotovoltaicrooftopsystems
developstrategiestosupportfamiliesandlowincomehouseholdstosaveontheirenergybills
ensurethatexistingNoInterestLoansSchemesareexpandedtocoverenergyefficiencyproductswithhigherupfrontcosts
assesstheviabilityofliftingtheminimumenergyefficiencystandardfornewhomesandmajorrenovations
improveVictoria’sproportionofinsulatedhomes,whichcurrentlyranksfourthinAustralia.
38 six steps to climate leadership | the path to a cleaner, healthier and more prosperous victoria
CHAPTER 06appendix – CONTINUED
Onrenewableenergy,Laborwill:
implementaVictorianRenewableEnergyActionPlantoattractVictoria’sshareofthe$36billiondollarsofinvestmentinrenewableenergiesforecasttooccurinAustraliaby2020
completeastrategicassessmentoftheappropriatetimeframeforachievingamajorexpansionofrenewableenergyinVictoriaoncethefederalgovernment’sreviewoftheREThasconcluded
reviewtheanti-windfarmplanninglawstoensuretheypromoteinvestmentandjobs,arebasedoncrediblescienceandreflectcommunityexpectations
createIndustryDevelopmentPlanstosupportthegrowthofbio-energy,marineenergy,geothermalenergyandenergystoragetechnologies
compensatehouseholdsandbusinessesthatprovideexcesscleanenergytothegrid
supportschoolstoinstallsolarpanelstoreducecostofpowerandwatertankstomeettheneedsofkitchengardensandschoolgroundsfacilities.
Onmanaginggovernment’sownemissions,Laborwill:
establishtheVictorianGovernmentasaleaderintheadoptionofinnovativeandpracticalemissionsreductionpracticesforitsownassetsanddepartments
buildontheknowledgeandskillsdevelopedbyEPA,whichhasalreadygonecarbonneutral,andhaveallgovernmentdepartmentsandagenciesgocarbonneutralby2020
reinstatetheroleoftheEPAinregulatinggreenhousegasesandmonitoringemissionreductionstrategiesandtheimplementationofrenewabletechnologies
expand,wherecosteffective,supportforretro-fittingofgovernmentbuildingstoimproveenergyefficiency,suchassolarhotwatersystemsinpublichousing
Monitorandreviewperformancerequirementsongreenhousegasemissionsandenergyuseforallstateandlocalgovernmentoperations
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promoteworkplaceinvolvementintacklingclimatechangebyprovidingforemployeerepresentationonenvironmentalissues.ThiswillbedonethroughtheestablishmentofGreenhouseCommitteeswhereemployersandmanagersworkcooperativelywithworkersandunionstoidentifyandthenimplementwaysofreducingtheir‘carbonfootprint’.
Tosupportcommunities,Laborwill:
restore,updateandstrengthentheClimate Change Act
maintainSustainabilityVictoriatopromoteincentivesandprovideprogramsforenergyconservation,alternativeenergyandreductionsingreenhouseemissions.
Onminingandmineralresources,Laborwill:
introduceacomprehensivestrategiclanduseframeworkthatprotectslandwhichsustainssensitiveruralandenvironmentallanduses
requireproductionofanenvironmentalimpactstatement,basedonclearlegislativecriteria,asaprerequisiteforobtainingalicenceforextraction,miningormajorexploration
maintaintheabilityfortheMinistertoexemptcertainareasfromexplorationand/ormininglicences
maintainabanonhydraulicfracturingduringandpriortoestablishingaParliamentaryInquiryintothisandotherminingprocessesandissuesrelatingtounconventionalgasexplorationandmining.
Environment Victoria will be tracking the implementation of these policies and the ALP’s progress towards taking the six steps to climate leadership over the coming months and years.
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