Situational Scan - Advancing Arizona’s Educational Attainment AzAIR Conference - Prescott April 4,...

Situational Scan - Advancing Arizona’s Educational Attainment

AzAIR Conference - Prescott

April 4, 2008

Current Status

• According to the 2006 American Community Survey, 25.5% of Arizona’s population 25 years and older has at least a bachelor’s degree.

• Nationally, the equivalent percentage is 27.0% in 2006.• In 2006, Arizona was the fastest growing state in the

nation, and regularly is among the top few.• A goal has been set for Arizona to match the national

educational attainment rate by 2020.• According to a White Paper by the Census Bureau, the

nation’s educational attainment rate in 2020 is forecast to be 29.2%.

• What does all this mean?

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Holding Educational Attainment Constant at Arizona's 2006 Rate of 25.5%Population 25 Years and Older

1,027,880 with a Bachelor's Degree


Need to Add 462,615 in 14 Years

Without a Bachelor's Degree

With a Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Source: DES PopTAC Approved Projections March 2006

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Moving Arizona Educational Attainment to the U.S. 2006 Rate of 27.0%Population 25 Years and Older







0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Moving Arizona Educational Attainment to the Projected U.S. 2020 Rate of 29.2%Population 25 Years and Older







So What Needs to Be Done?

• To stay at 25.5%, we would add 462,615 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 33,044 per year.

• To move to 27.0%, we would add 468,878 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 33,491 per year.

• To move to 29.2%, we would add 478,063 persons with at least a Bachelor’s degree, or 34,147 per year.

So What Have We Been Doing?

• Change in AZ Residents With 4-Year Degrees– 52,920 in 2003– 42,730 in 2004– 69,250 in 2005– 59,997 in 2006– 56,219, 4 year

average

• AUS Bachelor Degrees Awarded– 16,697 in 2002-03– 17,350 in 2003-04– 18,299 in 2004-05– 18,302 in 2005-06– 17,662, 4 year

average

The Arizona University System is producing about

31.4% of the state’s 4-year degree population.

As Is Condition, P-20 Model

Inputs 2007 2025 ChangeAdditional Entering Students

High School Graduates

73,462 122,047 48,585 25,944

20 to 24 Year Olds

436,812 682,502 245,690 25,797

25 to 49 Year Olds

2,223,927 2,971,911 747,984 29,321

Current Goal Current Goal

77.4% 77.4% 53.4% 53.4%


30.0% 30.0% 9.8% 9.8%

Growth In Inputs

High School Graduation Rate College-Going Rate

Input Rates

Participation Rate of 20 to 24 Year Olds


Active Cells

As Is Condition, continued

Current Goal Current Goal Current Goal

46.3% 46.3% 2.8% 2.8% 8.5% 8.5%


72.7% 72.7% 51.0% 51.0% 53.1% 53.1%


48.7% 48.7% 33.8% 33.8% 52.5% 52.5%

Public Two-Year Institutions

Throughput Rates

First-Year Retention RatesSix-Year Graduation Rates of First-

Time FreshmenFour-Year Graduation Rates of

Transfer Students

Private Four-Year Institutions



Transfer Students

Public Four-Year Institutions

First-Year Retention RatesTransfer Rates to Four-Year

Institutions*Six-Year Associate Graduation

Rates

Produces the Following Results

Public Four-Year Total Certificates Associates Bachelor's

2007 2,683 6,800 287 228 640

2008 5,366 13,599 574 456 1,279

2009 8,049 20,399 860 684 1,919

2010 10,732 27,198 1,147 912 2,559

2011 13,414 33,998 1,434 1,140 3,198

2012 16,097 40,797 1,721 1,369 3,838

2013 18,780 47,597 2,008 1,597 4,478

2014 21,463 54,396 2,294 1,825 5,117

2015 24,146 61,196 2,581 2,053 5,757

2016 26,829 67,995 2,868 2,281 6,397

2017 29,512 74,795 3,155 2,509 7,036

2018 32,195 81,594 3,441 2,737 7,676

2019 34,878 88,394 3,728 2,965 8,316

2020 37,561 95,193 4,015 3,193 8,955

2021 40,243 101,993 4,302 3,421 9,595

2022 42,926 108,792 4,589 3,649 10,235

2023 45,609 115,592 4,875 3,878 10,875

2024 48,292 122,391 5,162 4,106 11,514

2025 50,975 129,191 5,449 4,334 12,154Cumulative Total 54,490 43,337 121,539

YearAnnual Enrollment Increase Increase in Certificates and Degrees

The cumulative increase in degrees awarded from

2007 through 2020 is 67,166 or 4,798 per year.

Looking Toward the Future

• In the next 14 years, if the AUS system makes no advances in inputs/throughputs, 247,268 persons will receive a Bachelor’s degree.

• Using the NCHEMS P-20 model, expanding inputs will add 67,166, about 91% (61,386) from the AUS.

• So of the 478,063 that we need to get to 29.2%, 308,654 would come from current throughputs and expanding inputs.

Improving Throughputs

Inputs 2007 2025 ChangeAdditional Entering Students

High School Graduates

73,462 126,777 53,316 31,136

20 to 24 Year Olds

436,812 682,502 245,690 25,797

25 to 49 Year Olds

2,223,927 2,971,911 747,984 29,321


77.4% 80.4% 53.4% 58.4%


30.0% 30.0% 9.8% 9.8%

Growth In Inputs

High School Graduation Rate College-Going Rate

Input Rates



Active Cells

Improving Throughputs, continued


46.3% 46.3% 2.8% 2.8% 8.5% 8.5%


72.7% 76.7% 51.0% 56.0% 53.1% 53.1%


48.7% 48.7% 33.8% 33.8% 52.5% 52.5%

Public Two-Year Institutions

Throughput Rates



Transfer Students

Private Four-Year Institutions



Transfer Students

Public Four-Year Institutions

First-Year Retention RatesTransfer Rates to Four-Year

Institutions*Six-Year Associate Graduation

Rates

Produces the Following ResultsPublic Four-Year Total Certificates Associates Bachelor's

2007 3,394 7,857 303 251 895

2008 6,787 15,714 606 503 1,790

2009 10,181 23,570 909 754 2,685

2010 13,575 31,427 1,212 1,006 3,580

2011 16,968 39,284 1,515 1,257 4,475

2012 20,362 47,141 1,817 1,508 5,370

2013 23,756 54,998 2,120 1,760 6,265

2014 27,149 62,854 2,423 2,011 7,159

2015 30,543 70,711 2,726 2,263 8,054

2016 33,937 78,568 3,029 2,514 8,949

2017 37,330 86,425 3,332 2,765 9,844

2018 40,724 94,282 3,635 3,017 10,739

2019 44,117 102,138 3,938 3,268 11,634

2020 47,511 109,995 4,241 3,520 12,529

2021 50,905 117,852 4,544 3,771 13,424

2022 54,298 125,709 4,847 4,023 14,319

2023 57,692 133,566 5,150 4,274 15,214

2024 61,086 141,422 5,452 4,525 16,109

2025 64,479 149,279 5,755 4,777 17,004Cumulative Total 57,554 47,767 170,037

YearAnnual Enrollment Increase Increase in Certificates and Degrees

The cumulative increase in degrees awarded from2007 through 2020 is 93,968 or 6,712 per year.

Quick Summary

• Raising high school graduation rates from 77.4% to 80.4%,

• Raising college-going rates from 53.4% to 58.4%,

• Raising first-year retention rates from 72.7% to 76.7%, and

• Raising six-year graduation rates from 51.0% to 56.0% means . . . .

Conclusions for 2020

• Instead of having enrollments 37,561 higher than 2006, they would be 47,511 higher.

• Instead of having a cumulative increase in graduates of 67,166 since 2006, the cumulative increase would be 93,968.

• This increase would be the equivalent of nearly two years of recent degree awards.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Undergraduate 12 Month Enrollment - Expanding Inputs and Improving Throughputs

Expanding Inputs

Improved Throughputs

Current Production

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

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2014-15

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2018-19

2019-20

Bachelor Degrees Awarded - Expanding Inputs and Improving Throughputs

Expanding Inputs

Improved Throughputs

Current Production

Arizona Occupational Needs:Beyond Economic Growth & Replacement

• Assuming 4% job growth and replacement of workers who retire/die, Arizona needs 545,126 people with a 4-year degree.

• Some occupations currently have a gap between existing employment levels and ‘needed’ employment levels. How can the occupations be identified and quantified?

• How many more degrees would need to be added to Arizona’s economy?

Occupational Location Quotients

• Parity is when the ratio of employment in an occupation in Arizona as a fraction of either total employment or population equals the same ratio nationally.

• Some occupations are sensitive to the choice of employment or population. Most are not.

• Performing these calculations for all occupations needing postsecondary education yields the following.

Occupations With Largest GapsUsing Population Comparison

Occupation 2006 Employment Degree ShortageRegistered Nurses 35,071 Associates 15,833Middle School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Education 7,246 Bachelors 6,500Secondary School Teachers, Except Special and Vocational Education 18,982 Bachelors 2,726Civil Engineers 2,650 Bachelors 2,335Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School 2,447 Bachelors 2,121Special Education Teachers, Secondary School 961 Bachelors 1,921Rehabilitation Counselors 673 Masters 1,883Child, Family, and School Social Workers 3,942 Bachelors 1,593Physical Therapists 1,818 Masters 1,469Medical Scientists, Except Epidemiologists 278 PhD 1,369Special Education Teachers, Middle School 857 Bachelors 1,279Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists 2,207 Bachelors 1,179Vocational Education Teachers, Secondary School 844 BA w/Work 1,158Network and Computer Systems Administrators 4,941 Bachelors 1,156Architects, Except Landscape and Naval 993 Bachelors 1,134Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors 466 Masters 1,133Biological Technicians 378 Associates 1,130Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School 3,435 BA w/Work 1,106Chemists 631 Bachelors 1,064Librarians 2,171 Masters 959Art, Drama, and Music Teachers, Postsecondary 564 Masters 954Chemical Technicians 369 Associates 892Computer Systems Analysts 8,547 Bachelors 855Environmental Scientists and Specialists, Including Health 785 Masters 852Education Teachers, Postsecondary 303 PhD 823

Conclusion• A range of 475,000 to 530,000 for those

with a 4-year degree by 2020 was originally proposed.

• There are currently 139 occupations in Arizona that need postsecondary education and have a gap with the nation.

• Bringing those occupations up to national levels would add the need for an additional 109,172 people with postsecondary education.

Situational Scan - Advancing Arizona’s Educational Attainment AzAIR Conference - Prescott April 4,...

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