Situation Normal, Everything Must

Change

EvolutionImpactsCyclesToday

Strategy

Diffusion, a common concept ...

Evolve ?

... doesn't explain evolution ...

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Custom Built

Commodity

Service

Product

Utility

Genesis

However, there's a non time based process of

evolution ...

Certainty

Ubi

quity

User

Supply

Commoditisation

... which we call commoditisation

... which helps explain the whole

story.

Commodity

Genesis

EvolutionEvolution

Product

Custom

Map evolution against ...

Evolution

Valu

e C

hain

Valu

e C

hain

... value chain. We can use this to explain how industry changes ...

... creating a cycle of commoditisation driving higher order systems.

UtilityProduct

Hence Cloud ...

Chaotic As things evolve, their characteristics change ...

Chaotic Linear

Six Sigma

... which is why one size fits all methods don't work.

EvolutionImpactsCyclesToday

Strategy... this cycle also has standard impacts ...

+ Value

$$

+ Efficiency

Creative Destruction

+ Value

+ Agility

+ Efficiency

Componentisation

+ More

+ Value

+ Efficiency

+ Agility

Jevons

∆ Activities

∆ Practices

... and it's not just activities (what we do) that evolve but also practices (how we do

things) ...

CommodityGenesis ProductCustom

BestNovel GoodEmerging

... through a similar process.

Best

Product

Best

Utility

Often practices co-evolve with activities ...

Best

Product

Best

Utility

+ Transition

... creating inertia to change ...

Inertia

... or a least one of the forms of inertia ...

+ Past Success

Inertia

... which also occurs in vendors ...

War / Disruption

Build / Growth

Peace / Margin

... leading to three economic eras ...

Carlotta Perez

... which appear in every age ...

Tech

nolo

gy D

iffus

ion

Time

War / Disruption

Synergy

MaturityPeace / Margin

Eruption

FrenzyBuild / Growth

... e.g. ....

Tech

nolo

gy D

iffus

ion

Time

Organisations

... each state of war is associated with new

organisational forms ...

Best

Product

Best

Utility

Organisations

... those organisations being based on the new practices ...

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

Inertia

New

... hence we have a common cycle of change ...

Mechanical Components

American System

Inertia

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

... for every age ...

Means of mass communication

Web 2.0

Inertia

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

... ditto ...

Inertia

Next

Cloud

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

... ditto ...

The next Age ?

... ditto ...

2004

Inertia

Next Next

Manufacturing

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

... ditto ...

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

Inertia

New

Data

... also we see increases in unmodelled data ...

∆ Activities

∆ Practices

Unmodelled Modelled

Algorithms

... which evolves ...

Today ...

So what is happening today?

Inertia

Next

Cloud

Disruption

Growth

Emerging

Data

... what we would expect ...

Next

'Traditional'

Web 2.0

... and also new forms of organisation ...

Traditional Next Gen

Open source WeaponCost reduction

Scaling DistributedScale-up

Resilience Design For FailN+1

Failure Chaos EngineDisaster Rec.

Infrastructure

Learning

CommodityEnterprise

EcosystemAnalysts

Focus DisruptiveProfit

Departmental CellStructure

... with different characteristics ...

Commoditise

Leverage

Innovate

Of importance ... Ecosystem ...

Open Technology(open source, open data, open

hardware, open standards, open APIs, open process)

... and use of open as a competitive weapon ...

Open Technology1. Drive adoption

2. Drive innovation (as in feature completeness)

3. Drive innovation (genesis higher order systems)

4. Drive efficiency

5. Undermine competitors barrier to entry

6. Enable formation of an ecosystem (ILC)

7. Protect an existing value chain ... numerous strategies in the

wild ...

Open Technology9. Prevent competitors differentiating around a core revenue stream (Tower & Moat)

10. Retention and recruitment of talent

11. On ramp to another product or service (open core)

12. Overcome an obstacle (insertion strategy)

13. Encourage formation of a competitive market (interoperable play)

14. Avoid transition costs (standards play)

Open Source & the Next Age

... this will also matter in the next age...

Certainty

Ubi

quity

Custom Built

Commodity

Service

Product

Utility

Genesis

... critical is understand evolution ...

Evolution

Valu

e C

hain

Barrier

Threat

... understand the landscape ...

Competing in an Open World

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