Situation in Pakistan is Increasingly Explosive

7/28/2019 Situation in Pakistan is Increasingly Explosive

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situation in Pakistan is increasingly explosive. The floods are a natural calamity. But if a largeportion of the population, especially the workers, peasants and toiling masses, are now sufferinghunger and lack of water and shelter, it is because of the criminality of the countrys capitalistelite and their imperialist backers. They have plundered the people, while failing to provideelementary public infrastructure.

Cases of cholera due to the non-availability of drinking water are spreading. In the one-fifth ofthe country that has been flooded, the population continues to be besieged. Livestock and cropshave been destroyed over a vast area. Most of the roads linking the four provinces are ruined.Anger is growing steadily among the people against the government, the ruling class, and USimperialism.

Washington is watching the situation in Pakistan after the flood very closely. The US military isdetermined to expand its intervention in Pakistan and under the guise of providing humanitarianaid is now trying to doing so. That the US is maneuvering to advance its predatory geo-politicalinterests in the region is underscored by the fact that the US, despite its massive presence in the

region, had delivered next to no aid to the flood victims.

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Slum-dwellers inModel Town, Lahore

The largest natural disaster in Pakistans history, the Indus Valley floods affected 21 million

people. They deprived millions of their homes, swamped hundreds of thousands of hectares ofcrops, and drowned a significant portion of the countrys livestock.


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According to International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), manyagricultural areas are still submerged, although the flooding ended from four to six months ago,depending on whether one is talking about the countrys north, where the floods began, or thesouthern province of Sind, through which the Indus passes before emptying into the Arabian Sea.

Because many fields remain under water and farmers have lost seed, livestock and implements,agricultural production may be significantly impacted, driving up food prices and spreadinghungerand not just in 2010-11.

If the crops may be lost for successive years, said the IFRCs Konoe, that may develop into

some sort of social unrest and political turmoil..

The devastating floods ravaged approximately 5.4 million acres of Pakistans most fertile crop

land, resulting in $3 billion worth of damage. Approximately 200,000 acres of sugar cane and200,000 acres of rice were destroyed by the floods. Some 500,000 tons of stocked wheat werelost along with 300,000 tons of animal fodder and stored grain.

The widespread destruction of crops and the continuing submersion of much of Pakistansagricultural lands have led to food shortages and sharp price hikes for basic food staples. Theseincreases come on top of those that are being caused by international price gyrations. Recentmonths have seen sharp increases in world food, oil, and fertilizer prices.

The State Bank of Pakistan recently raised its inflation estimate for the current fiscal year, from arange of 13.5 to 14.5 percent to between 15 and 16 percent, and chided the Pakistan PeoplesParty-led national coalition government for excessive budgetary borrowing, particularly fromthe central bank.

According to theExpress Tribune, High government expenses financed through borrowingfrom the central bank, a proposed reduction in energy subsidies and rising international prices ofcommodities have been cited as the reasons behind the higherrate of expected inflation.


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Boy collects trash ina slum located in Model Town, Lahore.

Child malnutrition has been and continues to be a serious problem throughout the country. InPunjab, Pakistans largest province, 17 percent of children under the age of five weremalnourished even before the floods. In Pakistans poorest province, Baluchistan, 27 percent of

children under five were malnourished, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (the former North WestFrontier Province) the figure was 13 percent. More than a third of Pakistani children were foundto be underweight before the floods, and researchers reported that up to 44 percent of rural

children were stunted.

. -5 Long-Term Effects of Pakistan Floods

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Max Fisher1,944 Views Aug 27, 2010

After weeks offloodingin Pakistan displaced two million people and left more than 10 million atrisk of disease outbreak because they lack access to clean water, renewed flooding in Pakistanhas displaced an additional one million people over the past 48 hours alone, setting back a reliefeffort that has struggleddue to paltry donations. The displaced, often physically inaccessible to
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relief workers due to Pakistan's badly damaged infrastructure, face threats of disease, starvation,and dehydration. But even once the immediate humanitarian crises of the flood pass, experts saythe floods will leave their impact on Pakistan and the region for years or decades.

Lost Infrastructure Sets Pakistan Back Years The New York Times'Carlotta Gall writes, "Thedestruction could set Pakistan back many years, if not decades, further weaken its feeble civilianadministration and add to the burdens on its military. It seems certain to distract from American

requests for Pakistan to battle Taliban insurgents, who threatened foreign aid workers

delivering flood relief on Thursday. It is already disrupting vital supply lines to American forces in

Afghanistan. The flooding, which began with the arrival of the annual monsoons late last month,

has by now affected about one-fifth of the country nearly 62,000 square miles or an area

larger than England, according to the United Nations."

Rumors That Gov't Controlled Flooding Worsen Mistrust The Economist presentsunverifiablebut extremely disturbing rumors that, simply by circulating and regardless of their veracity, will

worsen the already deep mistrust and hatred in Pakistan of the government. "Overall 1.2m

homes have been damaged or destroyed. Some 800,000 people remain cut off from all help.

Even where the government or aid agencies are present, the help is patchy at best, with many

left to fend for themselves. Now dark (and plausible) accusations are circulating: the well-

connected chose which areas were purposefully flooded to relieve pressure elsewhere; aid is

being diverted to constituencies of powerful figures; woefully feeble flood-protection

infrastructure was left badly maintained."

Devastated Agriculture Will Cause Years of Food Shortage The Economist reports, "Hungermay prove to be a bigger problem. An estimated 23% of the years harvest was washed away,

including a quarter of the cotton crop, which matters to the economy. About 2.6m acres of

cultivated land have been drowned, says Pakistans National Disaster Management Authority.

Officials say that the rehabilitation will take three years, barring more floods. Food inflation will

hurt even the driest of the poor."

Taliban May Turn Against Humanitarian Workers While some militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba have actively participated in recovery, the Associated Press'Shakil Adil reportsthat

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, sometimes called the "Pakistani Taliban," may exploit this as an

opportunity to attack Western aid workers. "The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday hinted they

might attack the foreign aid workers. The militant network has a history of attacking aid groups,

including agencies under the U.N. umbrella. Militant spokesman Azam Tariq said the U.S. and

other countries were not really focused on providing aid to flood victims but had other motives

he did not specify."

Pakistan floods: Damage and

challengesContinue reading the main story
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/world/asia/27flood.html?hphttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/world/asia/27flood.html?hphttp://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/world/asia/27flood.html?hphttp://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100827/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_floodshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100827/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_floodshttp://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100827/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_floodshttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11104310#story_continues_1http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11104310#story_continues_1http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-south-asia-11104310#story_continues_1http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100827/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan_floodshttp://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://www.economist.com/node/16889663http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/world/asia/27flood.html?hp


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A month of flooding across Pakistan has left millions of people homeless and

devastated thousands of square kilometres of land. While the south battles new

floods, in the north workers have begun clearing up as waters recede. The BBC's M

Ilyas Khan assesses the huge task ahead.

Damage to infrastructure

Most damage to infrastructure has been caused in the mountainous north, where

gushing currents washed away roads and bridges, cutting off large communities

from each other and from the rest of the country.

Infrastructure in Punjab has been extensively

damaged

Officials have appealed for dozens more helicopters to reach those in need.

Roads, bridges and rail tracks have also been damaged extensively in the Punjab

and Sindh provinces.

Officials say more than 45 major bridges and thousands of kilometres of roads have

been destroyed or badly damaged. Thousands of electricity poles and

communications towers have been uprooted.

In the north-west, a dam that irrigated nearly 200,000 acres of farmland has been

destroyed.

It is still unknown how much damage has been caused to the irrigation system in

Punjab and Sindh provinces, which is the largest contiguous irrigation system in the

world and has been entirely flooded.

Economic impact

There are varying estimates of how much economic loss has been caused.

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have agreed to carry out damage

assessment which they hope to complete by mid-October.


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But rough estimates by experts put total damage anywhere between $25bn and

$40bn (16bn-26bn).

Minister for Food and Agriculture Nazar Mohammad Gondal says some 20% of the

country's total cropland has been inundated, causing a loss of $2.8bn.

This is obviously going to impact on the country's textile and sugar industries.

Experts expect inflation to exceed 12% in coming months, which will obviously hit

the most vulnerable segment of the population the hardest.

Textile exports, which constitute Pakistan's major foreign exchange earner, have

exceeded the targets for this year but if agriculture is not put back on track, they

may suffer and the country's gross domestic product (GDP) growth may take a hit.

Food

Pakistan had a bumper crop last year so there is no immediate food shortage in the

country.

A substantial amount of farmland has been

inundated by flood waters

But millions of acres of pulse and rice crops have been washed away, which may

lead to shortages and high prices.

The situation may deteriorate if farmers miss the winter sowing season, which

starts in September and continues until November.

The loss of cattle may also affect supply and prices of dairy products.

Experts estimate that 200,000 cattle have died in the floods, and some 10 million

are now at risk due to shortage of water and upkeep.

Health issues


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The time to treat immediate injuries caused by flashfloods is over. It is not yet

known how many have been injured or maimed.

Access to maternity health for those affected has also been negligible, though aid

groups are now providing services in some accessible areas.

The World Health Organisation estimates that a 5th of the country's health facilities

have been damaged.

Tens of thousands of cases of diarrhoea have

already been reported

Experts say flood related epidemics usually surface four to six weeks after the

floods.

UN officials say more than 70,000 cases of acute watery diarrhoea have already

been reported, and there is a risk that many of these people may have actually

contacted cholera.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gillani said last week that 3.1 million

children in flood-affected areas were at risk of contacting water borne diseases.

The situation might get worse if proper shelter, clean drinking water and latrines

are not provided immediately.

Damage to infrastructure is also going to impact delivery of health services as many

people are unlikely to be able to access health facilities due to damaged roads and

bridges.

Short-term rehabilitation

While floods are still ravaging vast areas in the southern Sindh province, the

government is under pressure to return life in the provinces of Khyber

Pukhtunkhwa and Punjab to normal.


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It has already announced incentives for canola sowing in the cotton belt of Punjab

province next month when the flood waters are expected to recede.

But the farming community has lost almost all its resources and the government

will need to spend huge amounts of money to facilitate land preparation, and the

provision of free seeds and fertilisers.

If foreign assistance is not available, the government may have to cut its own

development budget to provide assistance to farmers.

Security issues

Problems may worsen if the Taliban attack Western aid workers in the flood zone.

There are already fears that security concerns may drive up the expenses of UN

and other Western aid workers delivering relief in the region.

It may also slow down relief work in the affected areas, intensifying the discontent

already discernible among displaced people who believe the government has not

done enough to help them.

Sluggish aid delivery and delays in restoration of vital infrastructure are also likely

to heighten fears of increased urbanisation.

Tens of thousands of people displaced by the floods have taken refuge in urban

centres of Punjab and Sindh.

If the funding to rebuild their houses and the restoration of their infrastructure is

slow, they may stay on in the cities.

This will put pressure on already crowded Pakistani cities and exacerbate ethnic

tensions, particularly in Sindh province.

Situation in Pakistan is Increasingly Explosive

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