Sitra Hans Nilsson FourFact 2012-6-7
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Energizing Communities to Sustainability
Hans Nilsson FourFact AB
eceee IEA DSM Programme
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Mean temperature increase
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1
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3
4
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6
7
8
9
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300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
Mea
n g
lob
al
tem
per
atu
re i
ncr
ease
(deg
rees
)
GHG Concentration ppm (CO2-eq.)
Likely
Low end
High end
Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG I, Chapter 10, Table 10.8
IEA WEO
450 ppm
Safe side
350 ppm
Today
CO2 CO2eq.
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Means for decarbonising till 2030 compared to BAU
Source: IEA WEO 2009 3
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The EU Challenges -2009
Sustainable
Development
Security of
supply
Competitivness
Kyoto Moscow
Lisbon
•Renewables
•Efficiency
•Dialogue
•Storage
•Diversification
•Internal market
•Interconnections
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A modest proposal
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With high impact
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Oilcrisis (1973- Act 1: SAVE OIL AT ANY PRICE
GOVERNEMENTS RESPONSIBILITY
Efficiency (1985- Act 2: THE MARKET WORKS (ALONE)
(The invisible hand with a green thumb)
Sustainability (2000- Act 3: ACTIVE LEADERSHIP
(But who ?)
À la recherche du temps perdu
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The potential for energy savings
Source: http://www.wsed.at/fileadmin/redakteure/WSED/2012/download_presentations/21_Nuij.pdf 10
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The potential is > 50%
• Over an investment cycle (Buildings – long (decades); Industry – short (decade); Transport – Medium)
• Benefit is normally underestimated (comfort, security, robustness is not accounted for)
• Costs are normally overestimated (market learning, routine development is seldom regarded)
• Planning is normally absent (Building declarations, Management Systems) since it is not required or stringently applied
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What the customer wants!
Light, Power, Heat
Installation Energy (kWh)
What the customer ought to get!
Light, Power, Heat
A different Installation
Less Energy (fewer kWh)
Comptences to make the changes Insulation, ventilation, cooling, heating, building, electricity, lighting, plumbing, solar shading, compressed air, control, ICT, etc.
Not difficult, but complicated
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Focus and Perseverance takes you to energy efficiency step by step
Mo
re a
nd
mo
re e
ffic
ien
t
TIME Energy Audit
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Where (in the pipe) should we act?
At the end of the pipe:
CCS and cleaning
Beyond the pipe: Geo-engineering
Before the pipe:
Sufficiency
In the pipe: Efficiency and renewables
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Creating Markets with Experience
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MASSIVE DEPLOYMENT
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Lessons Learned in technology deployment policies
THE TRIANGULATION MODEL
R&D-D Model
Industry Strategy
(R&D funding)
Barrier Model
Market Framework
(Rules, regulations)
MT Model
Customer/Distributor
(Understand, Address)
Risk, Cost Niche Markets
Information,
Marketing
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The message of the learning curve
• Price (Cost) is reduced by 10-25% by each doubling in cumulative volume/sales (LR=Learning Rate)
• The new technology might reach a break even and be competitive to the old technology
Cumulative Sales
Pri
ce
Incumbent old
technology
Challenging New Technology
1 2
Learning curves are straight lines in a double
Logarithmic scale
R&D-D Model
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1. The learning investments have to be covered and recovered
• Learning investments are not subsidies IF they can be anticipated to yield future profit
• Someone has to start the process
• It takes TIME to reach break even
• The investments might be HUGE
Cumulative Sales
Pri
ce
Challenging New Technology A
B C
Learning investments
…and ditto profit
R&D-D Model
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4. There is always someone to share the bill
• (I) Government and companies that have a “first-mover” interest
• (II) Private sector (users) who have a worse alternative
• (III) Private sector (users) who have an interest in showing leadership
Cumulative Sales
Pri
ce
Challenging New Technology
Willingness to pay
on niche markets I
II III
R&D-D Model
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Comparison of supply side technologies
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Both Effectiveness and Efficiency
Källa: IEA. Deploying Renewables. Principles for Effective Policies
Policies to
be
Effective
Policies to be
Efficient
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Source: An EPRI Initiative to Advance the Efficient and Effective Use of Energy
New Technologies will change business More ICT
New applications
New (smaller) generation units
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Energy used (W) ---
Service (N)
Installa-tion
(custom.) Energy sold (Wk) Generation
Primary energy (Wp)
Local heat
source (G)
Transfor-mation
(custom.)
Local resources change the view
Primary energy > Energy sold> Energy used
Primary energy > Energy sold>< Energy used
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Distribu-ted gen. PV, wind
etc.
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Source: Energistyrelsen, Denmark 24
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Result (Efficiency) =
Potential technology, time *
Acceptance time; exposure
The Potentials are there – go for the Acceptance
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Market Transformation
Product Performance
Market Penetration
Base case
Preferred Case
Technology Procurement (TP)
Aggregated proc. (AP) & Labels
White Cert.
Standards & Norms
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The Issue…
Is not….
• Awareness (People
know that we are wasting energy and roughly also where)
• Motivation (People
want to save energy)
Is….
• Empowerment (People do NOT know HOW to do it)
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Measures and prospects have to be framed according to how people think and act.
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Perspectives on the market
Standard (Neo)-classical model ECONS
• Preferences are constant
• The prices contain the necessary information
• Customers have access to all necessary information on performance and prices
Behavioural economics model HUMANS
• Preferences are changing
• Decisions are biased by the way we are treating information
• Offers need to be designed (choice architecture)
Good model to estimate the potential
Necessary to decide on po- licies for implementation
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Mental accounting of losses and gains
1000 1000
Gv
Lv
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Soft measures
to leverage the hard
Source: http://www.energy-cities.eu/IMG/pdf/Horizon_2020_Energy_Cities_position_paper_final.pdf 30
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Soft Measures
• Visioning: setting up long-term energy & climate local strategies and targets
• Implementation of innovative technologies: uptake of sustainable energy technologies
• Financial innovation: implementation of innovative financial instruments, setting up new business models
• Social innovation: inventing and implementing new local governance, communication, ways of mobilizing local actors & citizens, changing behaviour, etc.
• Networking: new ways of exchanging knowledge & innovative practices, taking multi-level actions, etc.
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Pulling the pieces together?
• Technology performance (from BAD to BAT to BAT+)
• Technology integration (supply and demand side)
• Address the customer perception of changes
• Planning of changes (macro and micro perspectives)
• Industry learning and applications (business models)
• Policy instruments, both effective and efficient
Check also Concerto: http://download.steinbeis-europa.de/concerto/website/CONCERTO_plus_energy-perfom-26_final_long.pdf
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We all have our personal doomsday scenarios with respect to an extremely “energy hungry” world
Year 1800
Year 2050 ?
Year 2020, LED
Year 2000 CFL
Year 1900
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And finally…
THANKS FOR
LISTENING !
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