Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis del Caribe

Christa G. von Hillebrandt-AndradeDirectora e Investigadora

Red Sísmica de Puerto Rico, UPR, Mayagüez

Conferencia

“Las Fuerzas Armadas en apoyo a la atención de eventuales desastres: Tsunamis”

 Sede de la Junta Interamericana de Defensa (Casa del Soldado)

Washington, D. C.

26 de Agosto de 2008

Agenda

– Elementos del Sistema de Alerta de Tsunamis• Determinación de la Amenaza y Riesgo• Vigilancia

– Sísmica– Nivel de Mar

• Comunicaciones• Educación, Preparación y Recuperación

Generation, Propagation, and Inundation Phases of Tsunamis

long wavelength

Tsunami INDONESIA, December 26, 2004, Mw 9.3

Since 1530, 95 Tsunamis Have been observed in the Caribbean

• Statistics from Caribbean Tsunamis,  A 500-Year History from 1498-1998 by Karen Fay O'Loughlin and James F. Lander (ISBN 1-4020-1717-0 2003 edition) and Tsunamis of the Eastern US, NGDC, 2002 Science of Tsunami Hazards, vol 20, #3, pg 120 and NGDC, 2006.

Fatalities Due to TsunamisDate Place Fatalities

1692 Jamaica 2000

1842 Haiti ~300+

1853 Venezuela 600-4000

1867 Virgin Islands 23

1882 Panama 75-100

1906 Jamaica 500

1918 Puerto Rico 140

1946 Dominican Republic(1) 1790

1946 Dominican Republic(2) 75

TOTAL 5503 to 8928

Tsunamis in the Caribbean

From NOAA National Geophysical Data Center

Principal Earthquake, Landslide and Tsunami Sources

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Major faults and structures in the Caribbean with the potential of generating large local and regiaonal tsunamis from earthquakes and submarine landslides.

Other Caribbean Tsunamigenic Sources, Also Mostly short-fused

• Subaerial and Submarine Landslides

• Subaerial Volcanoes- Soufriere Hills, Montserrat

• Submarine Volcanoes-Kick ‘em Jenny

• Tele-tsunami (e.g. “Lisbon” Nov. 1, 1755)

The risk from tsunamis has increased dramatically due to population growth, coastal infrastructure

development and tourism

US Virgin Islands, 1867

US Virgin Islands, today

During high season, there can be as many as 25,000 people arriving on cruise shipsduring a day. During low season, as much as 15,000 people/day.

Tsunami Inland Flood Limit for Mayagüez,PR

Tsunami Inundation Maps

• Information Required:– Tsunami sources,

eg. Faults– Digital elevation

models of near shore topo and bathymetry

– Inundation model-TIME, MOST

• Vulnerability Factors– Age– Sex– Race– Family/Marital Status– Special Needs– Education– Housing– Economic resources

Vulnerability

Monitoring Components of Tsunami Warning System

• Seismic monitoring-accurate and timely detection and determination and dissemination of hypocentral parameters. Initial performance criteria: messages for all earthquakes M 5 or greater within 5 minutes of origin time.

• Sea Level Monitoring– Tide Gauges-confirmation of tsunami heights and

arrival times at coastal locations, validate tsunami inundation models

– DART Buoys-confirmation of tsunamis and real time forecasting of tsunamis

• Other geophysical instrumentation, GPS, hydroacoustic sensor – developing technology and infrastructure.

Seismic Stations Available in Real Time for the CEWS

Conributing Networks• USGS Caribbean Seismic

Network• ANSS-USGS• Global Seismographic

Network• U. Colima, Mexico• RS El Salvador• INETER, Nicaragua• OVSICORI, Costa Rica• Baru Network, Panama• Seismic Research Unit,

Trinidad and Tobago• Montserrat Volcano

Observatory• Martinique Volcano

Observatory• KNMI, Dutch Antilles• Puerto Rico Seismic

Network, UPR• Seismological Institute,

DR

TsunamiReady Tide Gauges

• Efforts are underway to increase the number of sea level stations available in real time. PRSN hosted a workshop in June, 2008.

• http://www.ioc-unesco.org

DARTBuoys

Tsunamis Warning Centers• National

– Nicaragua

• Regional– US NOAA West Coast and

Alaska Tsunami Warning Center

– Puerto Rico and Virgin Islands

• International– US NOAA Pacific Tsunami

Warning Center

• Planned– Caribbean Tsunami Warning

Center

Earthquake Information

WCATWC

PRSN

Communications and Dissemination

• 24 hour capability to rapidly receive and disseminate emergency information messages

“80% of tsunami mortalities occur within the first hour after the source event” (exception: 1946 Aleutian tsunami)EOS-AGU, v.88, n. 52

Tsunami Education, Awareness and Drills

Preparation and Distribution of Evacuation Maps.

Installation and Maintenance (replacement) of Tsunami Warning Signs

Response and Recovery Planning

• Response Plans– Roles and

responsibilities– Communications– Drills

• Recovery Plans– Safety and security– Mass casualties– Civil Infrastructure

Intergovernmental Coordinating Group for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Warning System for the Caribbean and

Adjacent Regions (ICG-C)

• UNESCO/IOC body• 30 member states,

commonwealths, territories

• Established in 2005• Sessions held in 2006,

2007 and 2008

Puerto Rico TsunamiReady

Partners

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Further analysis of the hazard and risk is required– Near shore bathymetry and topo digital elevation

models

• Very important that the infrastructure and capabilities of the almost 30 local and subregional seismic networks continue to be strengthened and supported.

• Upgrade the sea level infrastructure in the region.

Cont.• Improve the capabilities for receiving and

disseminating information and warning messages

• The establishment of a Caribbean Tsunami Warning Center and Caribbean Tsunami Information Center in the region for most effective advisory service before, during and after an event and accessible capacity building platforms for the region.

• Improve education, preparedness and recovery plans

More information…• UNESCO/IOC/ICG Website • http://www.ioc-unesco.org/• NOAA Tsunami Website

– http://www.tsunami.gov• PRTWMP website with tsunami inundation maps

– http://poseidon.uprm.edu• PRSN

– http://redsismica.uprm.edu

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