Singapore Retail 4Q 2012

8/13/2019 Singapore Retail 4Q 2012

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Outline of Presentation

2

1. Market Review

2. Year 2013 Market Outlook


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Market Review


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Retail Property MarketGeographic Distribution

4

Total Stock*(as of December 2012)

36.81 mil sq ft

*URAs shop space statistics excludes space for F&B and entertainment use as of 4Q 2012

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / URA

Downtown Core9.4%

Orchard13.7%

Rest of CentralArea14.6%

Fringe Area

29.3%

Outside CentralRegion33.0%


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Retail Property MarketConsumer Sentiments

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / Singapore Department of Statistics

Retail Sales Index

(Excluding Motor Vehicles)

Jan-Dec 2012

(Estimate)107.2

Jan-Dec 2011 105.4

Annual Growth 1.7%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

-10

10

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

Dec-

09

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-

10

Sep-

10

Oct-10

Nov-

10

Dec-

10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-

11

Sep-

11

Oct-11

Nov-

11

Dec-

11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-

12

Sep-

12

Oct-12

Nov-

12

Dec-

12

AnnualG

rowth

2010=100;atconstantprices

Retail Sales Index (Excluding Motor Vehicles)

Index YoY Change


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Retail Property MarketVisitor Arrivals

Visitor Arrivals in 2011

Jan-Dec 2011 13.2 mil

YoY Growth 13.2%

Annual Average

(2002 to 2011)9.56 mil

Visitor Arrivals in 2012

Jan-Dec 2012

(Estimate)14.4 Mil

YoY Growth 9.1%

2012 Forecast 13.514.5 mil

2015 Forecast 17.0 mil

Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / Singapore Tourism Board

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Aug-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

Feb-12

Mar-12

Apr-12

May-12

Jun-12

Jul-12

Aug-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Nov-12

Dec-12

AnnualGrowth

NumberofVisitors

Monthly Visitor Arrivals to Singapore

Visitor Arrivals YoY Change


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Retail Property MarketDemand, Supply and Occupancy of Shop* Space

Net New Supply (000 sq ft)

Annual Average

(2002 to 2011)334

2011 43

2012 11

Net New Demand (000 sq ft)

Annual Average

(2002 to 2011)407

2011 215

2012 32

*URAs shop space statistics excludes space for F&B and entertainment use


80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

-500

-250

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Occupanc

yRate

NetNew

Supply&Demand('000sqft)

Islandwide Net New Demand, Supply and Occupancy Rate

Net New Supply Net New Demand Occupancy Rate


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Source: Colliers International Singapore Research

Retail Property MarketRental Trends by Micro-markets

Orchard Road

Trough to Peak

(3Q03 vs 3Q08)20.5%

Impact of GFC

(3Q08 vs 3Q09)-12.0%

Extent of Current

Recovery

(3Q11 vs 3Q09)

0.9%

Current Downturn

(4Q12 vs 3Q11)-3.2%

Regional Centres

Trough to Peak

(4Q01 vs 3Q08)52.6%

Impact of GFC(3Q08 vs 2Q09)

-3.1%

Extent of Current

Recovery

(1Q12 vs 2Q09)

4.6%

Current Downturn

(4Q12 vs 1Q12)-1.1%

$43.38

$38.17

$37.25

$33.38

$32.33

$33.42

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00

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MonthlyGrossRents($persqft)

Average Gross Monthly Rents for Prime Retail Space

Orchard Road Regional Centres


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Source: Colliers International Singapore Research

Retail Property MarketCapital Value Trend

Orchard Road

Trough to Peak(2Q04 vs 2Q08)

32.0%

Recent Downturn

(2Q08 vs 4Q09)-14.8%

Extent of CurrentRecovery

(4Q12 vs 2Q09)

17.5%$5,000

$6,600

$5,625

$6,608

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

$4,500

$5,000

$5,500

$6,000

$6,500

$7,000

1Q2

003

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AverageCapitalValues

($persqft)

Average Capital Values of Prime Retail (Strata) Spacein Orchard Road


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Market Outlook


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Retail Property MarketFactors Affecting the Leasing Market

Demand Drivers

Opening of new tourist attractions in Singapore

Completion of hotels and attractions at Resorts World Sentosa

Sports tourism e.g. Formula One

MICE tourism and medical tourism potential

Increasingly more international retail brands hope to establish a presence in

Singapore, as Singapore becomes more recognised as a global/regional city

Asia as a hub for retailers

Downside Risks

Uncertain global economic outlook

Inflation

Decline in consumer sentiment

Acute labour challenges/shortages

Increased competition for tenants

Tenants resistance to further rent increases


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12

Retail Property MarketFactors Affecting the Sales Market

Demand Drivers

Low interest rates and high liquidity levels

Spill over of investor interest from other property sectors that have been

affected by government cooling measures (ie. residential and industrial)

The sector is currently free of market cooling measures.

Growing spirit of enterprise in the retail and F&B sectors.

Owner-occupation as a hedge against rental increases.

Downside Risks

High labour costs

Resistance to pay premium on rents, resulting in yield compression

Possible government anti-speculative measures in the near future due to

frenetic investor demand, especially for strata-retail units at limited new

launches


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*includes space for F&B and entertainment use as of 4Q 2012


Retail Property MarketSupply In The Pipeline*

Pipeline Supply (mil sq ft)

Total

(2013 to 2017)

5.16

Annual Average

(2013 to 2017)

1.03

Compare With (mil sq ft)

Year 2012

(Estimated)

1.20

Year 2013

(Forecast)

2.01

1.20

2.01 1.94

0.89

0.16 0.160.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

NetLettable

Area(milsqft)

Supply in the Pipeline

Completed Upcoming


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Retail Property MarketRents and Capital Value Forecasts

PRIME RENTS(Orchard Road)

2012

-2.7%

Slight Decline

2013F

-3.0% to -5.0%

Decline

PRIME RENTS(RegionalCentres)

2012

-0.5%

Relatively Stable

2013F

-1.0% to -3.0%

Slight Decline

PRIME VALUES(Orchard Road)

2012

4.0%

Increase

2013F

3.0% to 5.0%

Increase


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Thank You

Singapore Retail 4Q 2012

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Transcript of Singapore Retail 4Q 2012