Singapore presentation 26062012 updated
-
Upload
demos-petropoulos -
Category
Documents
-
view
203 -
download
5
description
Transcript of Singapore presentation 26062012 updated
European crisis, global trade and the shipping sector
Dr. Demos PetropoulosManaging Director
DPSS Global Consultants Limited
World Economy
The wheel of crisis turns slower
Economic and Sovereign crisis 2010‐2012
US and EU‐ High Unemployment Rates
European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Japan‐Natural DisasterChina‐ Increasing Inflation
Middle EastPolitical Unrest
4
Monetary policy will be extremely accommodative, but there is a risk that inflation remains relatively
high.
Asia continues towards the pinnacle of power albeit at a lower speed.
Fiscal policy, financial sector regulation and the oil price poses the biggest risks to our growth
forecasts.
Europe is experiencing a mild recession‐but with major regional
differences.The US weathers the storm.
‐Real Economic Activity has weakened and Growth Rates=
↓‐Trade growth to slow in 2012 after strong deceleration in
2011.
5
Gross Domestic Product around the Globe
Source: Bloomberg 6
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg8
European Economic Crisis
European Sovereign Debt Crisis
Weak credit owing to
banks’ funding difficulties
High Private Indebtedness
(Financial volatility and uncertainty)
Burst in asset pricesLost
CompetitivenessSevere Structural Unemployment
10
European Economic Sentiment Indicator
ESI persistent decline driven by falling confidence in all business sectors, especially in industry and retail trade
Source: EUROSTAT
11
Real GDP growth and trade of euro area economics, 2008‐11
Source: OECD Quarterly national accounts.12
Source: Morgan Stanley
The Effects of an intensified Euro Area crisis on various Regions
Effects on Shipping Industry
Source: Platou, DPSS
Source: Platou, DPSS
The Global Ship Finance Market
Source: Petrofin / DPSS Research 20
The Global Ship Finance Market
Source: Petrofin / DPSS Research 21
Total Merchandise Trade ‐ Exports
9.2210.50
12.1214.01
16.13
12.53
15.25
18.22
‐50.0%
‐40.0%
‐30.0%
‐20.0%
‐10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
20.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Value in Trillio
ns US do
llars
Exports Annual IncreaseSource : World Trade Orginisation22
Seaborne Dry Bulk Volumes
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mln DWTMln
Tons
Other
Soybean
Cement
Steel products
Grain
Steam coal
Met coal
Iron ore
Source: Clarksons, DPSS 23
Source: Platou, DPSS
5160 63
7467
45 48
54 50 48
90%
84% 83%
80%82%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Globa
l Yard utilisatio
n
Million cgt
Global Orderbook and Yard Utilisation 2008‐2012
Capacity Scheduled delivery Actual delivery Global yard utilisation
Source: Clarksons, Danish Ship Finance 25
9.0%
3.0%2.0%
9.0%
7.0%8.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Annu
al growth
Dry Bulk Seaborne Trade Volume
Seaborne Dry Bulk trade growth
Source: IHS Global Insight, Danish Ship Finance 26
Source: Bloomberg27
11 1428
42 47357 8
9
1623
26
57
10
18
1915
7% 7%
10%
17%
14%
10%
‐6%
0%
6%
12%
18%
‐40
‐20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million dw
t
Dry Bulk Fleet Annual Growth
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Scrapping Annual increase
Scrapp
ing Deliveries
Source: Clarksons, Danish Ship Finance
28
Source: Platou, DPSS
Asian Economies
Rk Partners Million euro % Rk Partners Million euro % Rk Partners Million euro %Extra EU27 1,683,931.0 100.0% Extra EU27 1,531,122.00 100.0% Extra EU27 3,215,053.0 100.0%
1 China 292,070.9 17.3% 1 UnitedStates 260,566.8 17.0% 1 United States 444,708.0 13.8%2 Russia 198,178.2 11.8% 2 China 136,216.9 8.9% 2 China 428,287.8 13.3%3 United States 184,141.2 10.9% 3 Switzerland 121,690.6 7.9% 3 Russia 306,627.1 9.5%4 Norway 93,528.7 5.6% 4 Russia 108,448.9 7.1% 4 Switzerland 212,894.7 6.6%5 Switzerland 91,204.1 5.4% 5 Turkey 72,587.6 4.7% 5 Norway 140,059.6 4.4%6 Japan 67,444.8 4.0% 6 Japan 48,970.3 3.2% 6 Turkey 120,176.0 3.7%7 Turkey 47,588.4 2.8% 7 Norway 46,531.0 3.0% 7 Japan 116,415.1 3.6%8 India 39,256.9 2.3% 8 India 40,419.4 2.6% 8 India 79,676.2 2.5%9 Brazil 37,751.6 2.2% 9 Brazil 35,729.7 2.3% 9 Brazil 73,481.3 2.3%10 South Korea 36,057.0 2.1% 10 United Arab Emirate 32,614.2 2.1% 10 South Korea 68,475.6 2.1%11 Saudi Arabia 27,933.3 1.7% 11 South Korea 32,418.5 2.1% 11 Saudi Arabia 54,328.8 1.7%12 Algeria 27,534.4 1.6% 12 Australia 30,804.9 2.0% 12 Canada 52,459.6 1.6%13 Nigeria 24,190.0 1.4% 13 Hong Kong 30,189.6 2.0% 13 Singapore 46,068.8 1.4%14 Taiwan 23,917.1 1.4% 14 Canada 29,607.2 1.9% 14 Algeria 44,739.0 1.4%15 Canada 22,852.4 1.4% 15 Singapore 27,131.3 1.8% 15 South Africa 43,412.9 1.4%16 Kazakhstan 22,672.7 1.3% 16 Saudi Arabia 26,395.5 1.7% 16 Australia 42,559.7 1.3%17 Malaysia 20,988.0 1.2% 17 South Africa 25,639.0 1.7% 17 United Arab Emirate 41,384.3 1.3%18 Singapore 18,937.5 1.1% 18 Mexico 23,802.6 1.6% 18 Hong Kong 40,322.4 1.3%19 South Africa 17,774.0 1.1% 19 Ukraine 21,197.0 1.4% 19 Taiwan 40,124.2 1.2%20 Thailand 17,534.2 1.0% 20 Algeria 17,204.7 1.1% 20 Mexico 40,071.8 1.2%
Other 74.6%Source: DG Trade Statistics
The Major Exports Partners The Major Trade PartnersThe Major Imports PartnersEU TRADE WITH MAIN PARTNERS (2011)
Source: DG Trade Statistics, DPSS Research
2,088
1,717
362217
356
1,949
393
184
735
81.2%
85.8% 98.0%
72.2%
165.3%
120.1%
65.2%
107.8%
68.5%
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Germany France Belgium Austria Greece Italy TheNetherlands
Portugal Spain
Billion
USD
EU Countries' Debt and % GDP
Debt % GDP
Source: EUROSTAT, Bloomberg, DPSS Research
• Despite the global slowdown Asia :– enjoys robust domestic demand– low unemployment – continued credit growth in the region.
Asia holding up
Japan• Recovery fueled by reconstruction
spending and private consumption• Long‐term challenges include tackling high
public debt, low growth• Financial sector has been resilient, but risks
remain
China • China’s economy expected to grow at 8
percent in 2012 as global demandslows
• Should downside risks emerge, Chinahas room for strong fiscal stimulus
• Chinese currency now assessed as"moderately undervalued"
37
China
Japan
Korea
ASEAN
Singapore
• The EU is China’s biggesttrading partner and its largestforeign investor. It is also itsbiggest competitor in the EastAsian Markets.
• The Chinese market isbecoming a key-role playerfor intra-Asian and Asia-Southtrade.
• Originally characterised with astrong trade surplus in favourof Japan.
• The EU-Japan traderelationship has recentlybecome more balanced
• The EU is the biggest investorin South Korea.
• EU-South Korea Free tradeagreement pushed up tradevolume.
• The EU is thelargest investor inASEAN countriesbut FDI inflowsdeclined as aconsequence of theEuropean crisis.
• Singapore emerges as the EU’smain FDI partner among theASEAN countries.
Net Imports €202 bln
38
Combine Exports China, Korea, Taiwan
Source: Morgan Stanley, DPSS Research 39
Euro Leaders should: Diminish all uncertainty caused. Tighten monetary policy Strengthen fiscal position Maintain sustainability of healthy public finances. Manage economic and financial integration between
emerging and advanced Europe
Europe Dampens Outlook
40
Key Economic Analysis
42
Price of Oil 2010‐2012
Who Has the Gas?
Data Sources: IEA 44
Stocks Performance
The MSCI All‐Country World Index (MXWD) of stocks dropped 7 percent since the beginning of May, tumbling to $305.6 last week. The index today climbed to $305.60, market volume of 33,31trillion dollars ‐ Bloomberg data show.
Source: Bloomberg
DPSS Global Consultants LimitedP.O.Box 70681, Limassol 3801, Cyprus
Telephone : +357 25 734 888Email : [email protected]
Webpage : www.dpssglobal.com
DisclaimerThe material and the information contained herein (together, the "information") are provided by DPSS Global Consultants Limited ("DPSS") for general information purposes.
The Information is drawn from DPSS's database and other sources. DPSS advises that: (i) any Information extracted from its database and other sources is derived from estimates orsubjective judgments; (ii) whilst DPSS has taken reasonable care in the compilation of the Information and believes it to be accurate and correct, data compilation is subject to limitedaudit and validation procedures and may accordingly contain errors; (iii) the provision of the Information does not obviate any need to make appropriate further enquiries; (iv) theprovision of the Information is not an endorsement of any commercial policies and/or any conclusions by DPSS and its connected persons, and is not intended to recommend anydecision by the recipient; (vi) shipping is a variable and cyclical business and any forecasting concerning it cannot be very accurate. DPSS and its connected persons make norepresentations or warranties of any kind, express or implied about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the Information. Any relianceplaced on such information is therefore strictly at the recipient's own risk.
This information is confidential and is solely for the internal use of the recipient. Especially, the information is not to be used in any document for the purposes of raising financewhether by way of debt or equity. All intellectual property rights are fully reserved.
To the extent permitted by law, DPSS and its connected persons shall not be liable to the recipient or any third party for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of or in connectionwith the Information, including without limitation any direct, special, indirect or consequential damages (e.g. damage for loss of business or loss of profits) whether caused by tort(including negligence), breach of contract or otherwise, even if foreseeable.
In this disclaimer ‘connected persons’ means, in relation to DPSS, the shareholders and the directors, officers, employees and agents.
This disclaimer shall be governed by and construed in accordance with Cyprus law.