Simulation ScenariosSimulation Scenarios

Barry DaintonBarry Dainton

Preliminary (crude) definitions: Preliminary (crude) definitions: real real v. simulatedv. simulated

An An experienceexperience is is simulated simulated if it is produced if it is produced by non-standard methods in a controlled by non-standard methods in a controlled fashionfashion non-standard = NOT by bodies/brains non-standard = NOT by bodies/brains

interacting with physical environmentinteracting with physical environment Eg. Demons, computersEg. Demons, computers

A A lifelife (or part of one) is (or part of one) is virtual virtual if it is if it is composed of simulated experiences.composed of simulated experiences.

Just suppose:Just suppose: That when the That when the

universe is universe is considered as a considered as a whole, from a God’s whole, from a God’s eye vantage point, eye vantage point, simulated lives greatly simulated lives greatly outnumber real livesoutnumber real lives

Call this scenario: Call this scenario: ‘simulation ‘simulation dominance’dominance’

Simulation Dominance Simulation Dominance

virtual

real

sum total of conscious lives (in entire universe, all times)

Simulation Argument (one form)Simulation Argument (one form)

Simulation Dominance is probableSimulation Dominance is probable No reason to think:No reason to think:

human lives are less likely to be simulated human lives are less likely to be simulated than other typesthan other types

early C21-type human lives are less likely to early C21-type human lives are less likely to be simulated than other typesbe simulated than other types

So: it is probable that our lives are So: it is probable that our lives are simulated.simulated.

The Simulation Argument (Bostrom)The Simulation Argument (Bostrom)

Simulation Hypothesis:Simulation Hypothesis: for every non-virtual for every non-virtual early 21early 21stst century human life there are many century human life there are many subjectively indistinguishable (or broadly subjectively indistinguishable (or broadly similar) virtual livessimilar) virtual lives

REAL VIRTUAL

Simulation Argument: cont.Simulation Argument: cont.

Your conviction that your life is non-virtual Your conviction that your life is non-virtual is no better founded than anybody else’s.is no better founded than anybody else’s.

So: So: ifif the Simulation Hypothesis is true, the Simulation Hypothesis is true, the odds of your life being non-virtual are the odds of your life being non-virtual are low (e.g. 1 in 10)low (e.g. 1 in 10)

R

Everyone believes their own lives to be real, non-virtual …

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

I’m real!

R

Simulation Argument: conclusionSimulation Argument: conclusion

‘My lifeis real’

High probability

Low probability

‘SH istrue’

High probability

Low probability

Probability assignments (not to scale)

Are we living in a simulation?

Are we leadingvirtual lives?

The Truman Show

The Matrix

Vanilla Sky

PermutationCity

The 13th Floor

Tipler

Bostrom

Chalmers

McGinn

An old theme with a new twist

… and sudden notoriety

LogicallyPossible(merely)

Nomologicallypossible(merely)

Nomologicallypossible

(& quite likely!)

Threat = idle

Threat=

real!

Descartes?

Standard vat-brains?

Most sci-fi?

Tipler, Bostrom, posthumanists

‘Could my life be a

simulation?’

SimulationArgument

“Simulation Argument”conclusion: take

simulation menace (somewhat) seriously

extend range address queries explore ramifications

My aims here:

Next: Next: Why believe menacing simulations might exist in the

required (vast) numbers?

6 billion

actual

60 billion?

virtual

Type-2003 day/life streams

600 billion??

Two methodsof simulation

generation

S-simulations H-simulations

Two types ofsimulation

Another distinction:

S-simulations:S-simulations: conscious lives conscious lives

generated by generated by running running softwaresoftware on on computer computer

(NOT brains!)(NOT brains!)

H-simulations:H-simulations: conscious lives conscious lives

produced by produced by directly tampering directly tampering with neural with neural hardwarehardware

Matrix-styleMatrix-style vat-brainvat-brain

COMPUTER ALONE

COMPUTER + BRAIN

S-sims: the high-roadS-sims: the high-road

‘posthumanism’

computers of VAST power

repositories ofmost conscious life

‘universal computer’

many simulationsof every possible humanstream of consciousness

(of finite duration)

Planetary-mass computer

1042 ops

Time required for running of ‘ancestor simulation’ = 10-7 seconds

(one of many)

Tipler

Bostrom

100 billion humans x 50 years/human x 3 million secs per 100 billion humans x 50 years/human x 3 million secs per year x 10year x 101414 – 10 – 1017 17 ops per brain per secondops per brain per second

‘‘Ancestor simulation’ = simulation of Ancestor simulation’ = simulation of entire mental history of humankindentire mental history of humankind

Typical human brain: Typical human brain: operations per operations per second = 10second = 101414 - 10 - 101717

Ops required for 1 Ops required for 1 ancestor simulation = ancestor simulation = 101032-3532-35

(assumption: humankind superseded in (assumption: humankind superseded in a few centuries)a few centuries)

S-simulations: low roadS-simulations: low road

Desktop PC Power: next few yearsDesktop PC Power: next few years

typical human brain

2030-40

‘Moore’s Law’: computational power per $ doubles every two years

computational power

time

Predictions: Kurzweil, Moravec 100 million

ops

Supercomputer (circa 2000) = 10 million ops

S-simulations: low roadS-simulations: low road

Small-scale sims; on small machines (e.g. Small-scale sims; on small machines (e.g. desktop)desktop)

In large numbers …In large numbers … entertainment: God-games (‘The Sims’)entertainment: God-games (‘The Sims’) research: historical, politicalresearch: historical, political

• E.g. exploring counterfactual historiesE.g. exploring counterfactual histories

Over many years (a few centuries)Over many years (a few centuries) = billions of menacing simulations= billions of menacing simulations

God games: ‘The Sims’, God games: ‘The Sims’, ‘Civilization’, etc.‘Civilization’, etc.

Currently, their ‘inhabitants’ are Currently, their ‘inhabitants’ are not not consciousconscious

In future: that could change In future: that could change more processing power/memorymore processing power/memory more autonomous characters -> more more autonomous characters -> more

entertaining spectaclesentertaining spectacles

An ordinary (virtual) family: ‘The Sims’An ordinary (virtual) family: ‘The Sims’

Sample numbers:Sample numbers:

20 million simulated T(2003) day-streams 20 million simulated T(2003) day-streams per yearper year assume: very large future populationassume: very large future population

For 100,000 years For 100,000 years assume: quite long futureassume: quite long future

Total of: 2000 billion menacing d-streamsTotal of: 2000 billion menacing d-streams So: significant simulation menace (50%)So: significant simulation menace (50%)

approx 2000 billion actual 2003 d-streamsapprox 2000 billion actual 2003 d-streams

S-simulations: how great a menace?

presupposes verycontroversial theory of

mind

BUT! BUT!

computational

power

programming

know-how

virtual livesin

VAST numbers

time

inclination

Q: How worryingis the computationalsimulation menace?

classicalfunctionalism

non-reductivefunctionalism

materialism

classicaldualism

Very! It’s not!

ShoemakerLycanLoarChalmers

DescartesSmart/PlaceSearleStrawsonMcGinn

BroadeningBroadening‘appeal’ of ‘appeal’ of Sim. Arg.Sim. Arg.

Other sourcesof menacing simulations

H-SIMSsims run onbrains

Neural interface technologyNeural interface technology

H-SIMS: high road

brain-computerinterface

genemanipulation

nano-engineered

fully immersiveVR

psychology perception

H-SIMS: low road

controlledhallucinations

fully immersive VR

exploit knownbrain potential

implant assisted

drug assisted

One scenario: VR in education One scenario: VR in education

Imagine:Imagine: a typical 23 a typical 23rdrd century history lessoncentury history lesson

Topic: life as an Topic: life as an ordinary 21ordinary 21stst century century personperson

Method: Method: fullyfully immersive immersive virtual reality ‘trip’ to virtual reality ‘trip’ to the pastthe past

Spend a few hours AS Spend a few hours AS an ordinary 21an ordinary 21stst century century personperson

H-sims: will the technologies ever H-sims: will the technologies ever be developed?be developed?

It It isis hard for us to envisage how (say) brain- hard for us to envisage how (say) brain-machine interfaces of the kind required could be machine interfaces of the kind required could be designed & implemented.designed & implemented.

But: remember Arthur C. Clarke’s ‘Third Law’: But: remember Arthur C. Clarke’s ‘Third Law’: ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is ‘Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic’indistinguishable from magic’

Think: what would a 19Think: what would a 19thth century person have century person have made of modern computers, atomic weapons, made of modern computers, atomic weapons, genetic manipulation, etc.genetic manipulation, etc.

H-sims technology: further reasons H-sims technology: further reasons for ‘optimism’for ‘optimism’

Neuroscience: we still have much to learnNeuroscience: we still have much to learn Research in nano-technology, Research in nano-technology,

programmable matter continues apaceprogrammable matter continues apace Money no problem: entertainment industryMoney no problem: entertainment industry

computer games bigger than moviescomputer games bigger than movies MMOG phenomenonMMOG phenomenon: indicator of what’s to : indicator of what’s to

come?come?

MMOG‘massive multiplayer

online gaming’

Ultima Online

Everquest

Anarchy Online

…….

MMPORG ‘massive, multiplayer, onlinerole-playing game

‘persistent world games’

participants = 120,000 (simul)

notoriously addictive

MMOG: screenshotsMMOG: screenshots

MMOG MMPORG

Big money in sim technology!

H-sims: relevant predictionH-sims: relevant prediction

‘VR trips to the past’

if possible … VERY numerous

VR-vacations: sample numbers VR-vacations: sample numbers

Actual 2003 d-streams: 2 x 10Actual 2003 d-streams: 2 x 101212

Assume: Assume: every sim-age person takes 1 trip to early 21every sim-age person takes 1 trip to early 21stst

centurycentury 10,000 sim-age generations10,000 sim-age generations average sim-age population = 10 billionaverage sim-age population = 10 billion

Yields: 1.0 x 10Yields: 1.0 x 1014 14 virtual streamsvirtual streams So: 1/50 chance of your life being realSo: 1/50 chance of your life being real

Menacing Simulations:further possible source

MODAL REALISM

menacing S-sims= infinite

menacing H-sims= infinite

Lewis, Tegmark

MODAL REALISM

real lives

virtual lives

50% chance of virtuality

∞

∞

MANY WORLDS?

Where do we stand?Where do we stand?

A. Humankind will have a long and successful future.

B. Technology will make realistic sims possible, and these will be created frequently, in varied forms.

C. You and I exist in the early 21st century

D. Modal Realism is true.

tension

tension

‘A &Btrue’

High probability

Low probability

‘Theseexperiences

occur in 2003’

‘Ctrue’

More confident

Less confident

Sim Arg: implications

Epistemology

Ethics

Metaphysics

TheologyPragmatic

Scepticism: traditional responseScepticism: traditional response

COMBAT! ‘Of coursethis life is

real!’

establish thatconcern is

unwarranted

Sim Era Scepticism: menace of the Sim Era Scepticism: menace of the virtual = very real virtual = very real

Assume: reality is largely asour experience suggests

(physical law, history, etc.)

significant probability that your life = virtual

Take a few VR-trips: threat will feel real …

Objection:Objection:

Sim-scepticism= self-undermining

Sim threat = not real

Recall the basic line of reasoning

And see how itdefeats itself …

My life isnon-virtual

SimulationArgument

High oddsthat I am living in a simulation

My world has properties F, G ..

My life isnon-virtual

SimulationArgument

High oddsthat I am living in a simulation

My world has properties F, G

?

1.1. Certain beliefs about the character of the Certain beliefs about the character of the world lead you to believe that it is likely that world lead you to believe that it is likely that you are living in a simulation.you are living in a simulation.

2.2. But: the latter belief undermines the former But: the latter belief undermines the former beliefs beliefs

If you believe you inhabit a sim, why believe If you believe you inhabit a sim, why believe your experience is a reliable guide to how things your experience is a reliable guide to how things really are?really are?

Your grounds for assigning a high probability to Your grounds for assigning a high probability to the sim hypothesis are no morethe sim hypothesis are no more

Steps to a vicious, epistemically unstable, loop:

3.3. So you no longer have reason to believe So you no longer have reason to believe you are living in a simulation.you are living in a simulation.

4.4. You conclude: things are much as they You conclude: things are much as they seem.seem.

5.5. But: if things are much as they seem, But: if things are much as they seem, there is a good chance that you are living there is a good chance that you are living in a simulation ….in a simulation ….

6.6. And the loop repeats ….And the loop repeats ….

Loop concluded and relaunched …

One response: entrenchment

Anyone who initially assignshigh probability to sim

hypothesis is always returnedto their initial state

So: rejecting the Sim Arg and‘returning to reality’ is is not a stable option

A problematic(& puzzling) symmetry

Rejecting Sim Arg = not a stable option

Accepting Sim Arg = not a stable option

Rejecting Sim Arg = not a stable option

Accepting Sim Arg = not a stable option

Can the Sim Arg leave one in an

epistemically stable situation?

Question:

Maybe…

Simulation Misrepresentation

A suspect equation….

Traditionaldemon

hypothesis

Naturalisticsimulation

hypotheses

Simulation Realism: variantsSimulation Realism: variants

Full: simulation is perfect duplication of Full: simulation is perfect duplication of actual worldactual world

Partial: simulation is accurate in some Partial: simulation is accurate in some respectsrespects physicsphysics biologybiology historyhistory personalitiespersonalities

S-realism:S-realism: Simulations with high S-realism resemble the Simulations with high S-realism resemble the

actual world in ways relevant to the assessment actual world in ways relevant to the assessment of the Simulation Hypothesis (i.e. that there are of the Simulation Hypothesis (i.e. that there are high odds that your life is virtual)high odds that your life is virtual) laws of nature, technological possibilities, social laws of nature, technological possibilities, social

trends, etc.trends, etc.

Modest claim:Modest claim: at least 75% of current fictions at least 75% of current fictions (films, novels, computer games) have high S-(films, novels, computer games) have high S-realismrealism

Modest prediction:Modest prediction: at least 50% of future fictions at least 50% of future fictions will have high S-realismwill have high S-realism

80% chanceI am living in a

simulation

My world is broadly asit seems + low oddsthat my life is virtual

Simulations with high S-realism= 50%

40% chanceI am living in a

simulation

Steps to an epistemically stable situation

My world is broadly as it seems + good chance

that my life is a simulation

SimArg

(a) the world is broadly as I believe it to be (a) the world is broadly as I believe it to be (physical laws, history, technological trends)(physical laws, history, technological trends)

(b) the probability that I am living in a simulation is (b) the probability that I am living in a simulation is quite highquite high

Claim:Claim:

These two beliefs are consistent, provided that These two beliefs are consistent, provided that under (a) you believe that most future under (a) you believe that most future simulations are likely to supply a broadly simulations are likely to supply a broadly accurate picture of realityaccurate picture of reality

Moving swiftly on …Moving swiftly on …

Theology: Problem of Evil

real

distribution of ‘pointless’ suffering

virtual worlds / lives

most evil = directly due to humankind

Metaphysics: varieties of VRMetaphysics: varieties of VRH-sims v S-sims

Original v ReplacementPsychology

Active v Passive

Communal v. Individual

Autonomous v. Programmed actions

Others are real (active) or merely apparent.

Your own psychology, or another one

Active – Individual – Original PsyActive – Individual – Original PsyActive – Individual – Replacement PsyActive – Individual – Replacement Psy

Active – Communal – Original PsyActive – Communal – Original PsyActive – Communal – Replacement PsyActive – Communal – Replacement Psy

Passive – Communal – Original PsyPassive – Communal – Original PsyPassive – Communal – Replacement PsyPassive – Communal – Replacement Psy

Passive – Individual – Original PsyPassive – Individual – Original PsyPassive – Individual – Replacement PsyPassive – Individual – Replacement Psy

H or S

16 modes

‘The Matrix’ = active, communal, original ?

Simulation Scenarios as Simulation Scenarios as Metaphysical Hypotheses, not Metaphysical Hypotheses, not

Sceptical Hypotheses (Chalmers)Sceptical Hypotheses (Chalmers)

If we were simulants, most of our beliefs If we were simulants, most of our beliefs about our world would still be trueabout our world would still be true

But: our world would have a different But: our world would have a different naturenature than we commonly believe than we commonly believe e.g. physical things are constituted by e.g. physical things are constituted by

computational processescomputational processes Some plausibility for COMMUNAL simsSome plausibility for COMMUNAL sims

Pragmatic Issues: Pragmatic Issues:

Should I act differently?

Should I be depressed?

My life is boring: does this reduce

the odds?

My life is unusually interesting: does

this increasethe odds?

The price of fame: high sim oddsThe price of fame: high sim odds

But my life is too dull …But my life is too dull …

No life is too dull!No life is too dull!

‘‘The Sims’ = bestselling computer The Sims’ = bestselling computer game for the past game for the past three yearsthree years

Simulation EthicsSimulation Ethics

Creation Issues Maintenance Issues

Question: might ethical scruples diminish the menace posed by the Simulation Argument?

Sim subjects are being deceived about their real condition. It’s wrong to deceive in this way.

Deception Objection

Does the wrong outweigh the gift

of existence?

H-sims, VR-vacations:deception = temporary

& self-imposed!

Self-Interest Objection

Future generations will restrict sims to secure their own reality

Can’t guarantee policy will be continued

Opposing forces: escapism,entertainment industry

Realization: innocencecannot be recaptured

implicationsfor us …

Sim innocence: can’t be regained, Sim innocence: can’t be regained, but but cancan be simulated be simulated

2003

sim age innocence

transition

100,000 AD

popularity

(no. of simulations/visits)

sum total of intelligent conscious beings

us

take sim threat seriously

don’t

Concluding speculations: Might We Be In a Minority?

A further (final?) Copernican shift A further (final?) Copernican shift

virtual

real

sum total of conscious lives