Simulation of Temperature and Precipitation using Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) for Uzbekistan

Central latitude of the model domain 40NCentral longitude 60Eiy 40jx 51ds 60km

Cumulus parameterization scheme GrellConvective closure scheme Fritsch &Chappell

Two experiments: NCEP and ECMWFSimulation Period 1.07.1997-1.08.1997

Topography of the domain

NCEPECMWF

Observed Monthly Precipitation1997.07 CRU

Observed Monthly Temperature1997.07 CRU

NCEPECMWF

SimulatedMaximum Temperature1997.07.15(12)

It was observed a hit wavein the in central part of the country

ECMWF

NCEP

T e m p 9 0 - 7 <

2 6 2 6 - 2 8 2 8 - 3 0 3 0 - 3 2 3 2 - 3 3 3 3 - 3 4

N E W

S

t

T s c p 1 9 0 - 7 <

2 6 2 6 - 2 8 2 8 - 3 0 3 0 - 3 2 3 2 - 3 3 3 3 - 3 4

N E W

S

t

Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature.

Fig. (a) presents the values of the 90 % probability empirical quantiles throughout the territory and its possible values in conditions of a 1°C increase of the mean air temperature in July.

The figures clearly show expansion of the areas where extremely high monthly air temperatures are probable

a

b

T e m p 1 0 - 1 <

- 1 2 - 1 2 - - 9

- 9 - - 6 - 6 - - 3 - 3 - 0

N E W

S

t

t

T s c p 2 1 0 - 1 <

- 1 2 - 1 2 - - 9

- 9 - - 6 - 6 - - 3 - 3 - 0 0 - 2

N E W

S

t

a

b

Estimating possible extreme values of monthly air temperature.

Fig. (a) presents a distribution of the 10 % probability empirical quantiles of the average monthly air temperature in January.

Fig. (b) presents the same value computed for conditions of a 2°C increase in the average air temperature throughout the territory of Uzbekistan.

The quantiles were computed for the conditions of climatic scenarios with the application of theoretical distribution functions.

Main Conclusion : Research using RegCM3 should be established in Uzbekistan

It can be observed that natural ecosystems and agriculture have become more vulnerable to climate changes.

Irrigation zonesIrrigation zones