Silimela King Sabata Dalindyebo Cofisa Conference Feb 2010 FINAL

8/9/2019 Silimela King Sabata Dalindyebo Cofisa Conference Feb 2010 FINAL

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King Sabata DalindyeboMunicipality, Eastern Cape

Foresight Scenariosfor 2030

Cofisa Closing Conference

February 2010Silimela Development Services

www.silimelaafrica.com


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Scenario Planning asmanaging a creativetension:

# 1: Probabilistic Projections

and Models:Objective and professional

Past Trends Projected

Key Driving Forces Estimated

Infinite complex matrices

Modelling vectors of inter-dependent causation


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The Creative Tension inScenario Planning:

#2 : Collective Imagining :

Subjective and imaginative

Embraces all

Based upon the predictivepower of stories

A few plausible outcomes


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EXAMPLE: By 2050 people willtravel in flying cars, get much of

their power from renewable

energy and live a life of luxury ina world without borders

Optimistic image of the future that

emerged from a survey of young

adults in 27 countries worldwide


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YANG =

Probabilistic

YIN =Collective Imagining


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Local Development Challenges

Very high unemployment

Youth, old age and poverty dependency

Major disparity between rural and urban

Spatial remoteness Institutional complexity

Mthatha as a former homeland capital

Municipality struggling to come to termswith

Basic service delivery

Infrastructure backlogs

Financial viability

Short and long term planning


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The Process Intent

Bring together the views and insights of Government

Local business

Civil society organisations

Research institutions

in an inclusive and effective manner in order

to be able to stimulate a useful perspective on

the long term (2030) future.


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Process Challenges1. Mobilising a critical mass of stakeholders so as to be

able to conduct a truly strategic conversation

2. Buy in from municipality.

3. Engaging with the (recent) KSD 2030 Master Plan

4. Enabling all participants to share in the conversation

5. Balancing technical perspective with authenticthinking of participants.

6. Conducting the conversation skilfully

7. Introducing foresight into strategic decision making

in KSD


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Project Participation StructuresSteering Committee:

COFISA

Municipal Manager

NPDG

DBSA

Municipal Leadership Group (MLG)

Reference Group

Organised Business

Walter Sisulu and Rhodes University

Community Organisations

Provincial Government


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Key Steps in The Process


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Step One: Process Alignment (July

2009)

Previous research and policy documents

Stakeholder database Mobilisation & communication plan


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Step Two: Research Foundation

(June/ July 2009)

Probabilistic Analysis

Past KSD socio-economic trends

Three SA scenario exercises

Presidency

Dinokeng

COFISA Eastern Cape

Many international studies and

scenario exercises


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8 KEY DRIVING FORCES

1: The world becoming more joined up

2: Oil getting more scarce

3: The world getting hotter

4: Amazing new technology

5. World tourism boom6: Africa growing fast

7: South Africa at the crossroads

8: The Eastern Capes treasures for thefuture

S Th T h i l Ali (J l


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Step Three: Technical Alignment (July

2009)

COFISA Eastern Cape Biotech Scenarios


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Step Three

The Proto Scenario Quadrants


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Step Four: Municipal Leadership

Alignment (September 2009)

Implications of scenarios process for the KSDVision 2030 and Master Plan

Explanation of scenario planning concepts andscenarios affecting KSD

Agreeing on how best to engage otherstakeholders in a scenario building process


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Step Five: Scenario Generation

(October 2009)


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Participants were asked: tellus how these three toddlers

in different settings grow upto 2030?

Example Lulama, born 15 October

2008 in Ngangelizwe

Township in Mthatha

22 years old in 2030


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What happens to

Lulama... Completed Matric in Ngangelizwe

Received bursary from KSD

Has honours in Environmental Science

Registered for a Masters degree

Learned business skills from local role models

Working as a consultant in environmental management

Has contributed towards improving natural assets, esp.Rivers

Passionate about rebuilding and reclaiming Mthatha

Also runs an office in Durban, works remotely

Lives in her own flat close to the CBD


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What happens to the setting:Mthatha Othathayo 2030

Economic infrastructure has improved esp. the completion ofMthatha-Kokstad rail line

Public transport system is good

Airport Upgrades

Improved Agriculture food security

Rail networks links products to markets ICT Development

Use CCTV (Close Circuit Television)- to fight crime

Water is clean and recreation areas are good, clean air,contributing towards good quality of life

Better housing through mixed use high density development Mthatha has grown due to its strategic location between EastLondon, Kokstad, Queenstown and enhanced rail system


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Participants were then asked: To makethe good things in these stories cometrue, what needs to happen in KSD?

Product = 7 Directions for the Future

1. Fix Mthatha2. Boost Farming

3. Pull Social Development Together

4. Drive Technology- knowledge

5. Launch Tourism6. Connect up Rail and Road

7. Build Collective Leadership


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Participants asked again: How will the 7Directions play out in the 4 ProtoScenarios?

Product = 4 probable and collectivelyimagined scenarios

Mihla Ngemihla (Business As Usual)

Gxaba Gxabiso (Quick Results)

Intlakohlazo (Greener than Usual)

Inkqubela Phambili Sibambisene (SustainableDevelopment)


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BIG BOX OLD TECH GREEN TECH

ON

GRID

OFFGRID

SERVICE DELIVERY

INVESTMENTAND

TECHN

OLOGY

People-driven

Social capital focus

Recycling

Cultivates local

investment

Community Technology

Small farm collectives

Some pilot projectsOnly a few benefit

Rural community left

behind

Green town & villages

Relies on government

Gated developmentBig Malls

Mega-farms

Mass-resorts

Depends on outside

investors

Infrastructure BacklogsSubsistence Farms

Grudge Tourism

Little private investment

Relies on government


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Step Six: Scenario Implications

(October 2009)

The second multi stakeholder Choices We MakeToday workshop

reviewed and refined the four 2030 scenarios

gave names for the scenarios that could capturecommunity interest and involvement in futurecommunication of the process

identified key strategic choices that KSD needsto make.


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Step Seven: Reflection and Closure

(November 2009)

Final Steering Committee workshop:

distilled key learnings from the process

in regard to long term planning for KSD

Suggested replication of the process in

other communities in South Africa


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(3)

(4)

(2) (1)

(5)

(6)KSD 2030 KSDIDPMaster Plan

Three Stories of Life in

KSD in 2030

Seven 2030

Directions/ Issues

Impacting on KSDs

future

5 Past KSD Trends8 Key Driving Forces

4 KSD 2030 Scenarios

incl. Preferred

Scenario

KSD Strategic Choices

& Implementation

Recommendations

PROCESS SUMMARY


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LESSONS LEARNED

The process was successful and canbe replicated high level of interest and participation

brought the future home local leadership fully engaged

broad awareness of future threats and opportunities

the choices which need to be made soon


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LESSONS LEARNED

Work in progress:

Extending the conversation to the

broader community Managing the risk of perceived

powerlessness long term regional infrastructural issues

such as rail connectivity and off grid powergeneration

Fragmented delivery of social developmentservices


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LESSONS LEARNED

Cementing a capable long termpartnership

Translating the sustainable

development scenario into concrete 5/10/15 year programme ofaction

coupled with local IDP and other

donor and government programmesCore Donor(s) needed to assist!


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Thank you

Shahid Solomon

[email protected]

www.silimeelaafrica

083 377 2704
mailto:[email protected]://www.silimeelaafrica/http://www.silimeelaafrica/mailto:[email protected]

Silimela King Sabata Dalindyebo Cofisa Conference Feb 2010 FINAL

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