SILICON WAFERS - TECHCET€¦ · 3 semiconductor industry market outlook 29 3.1 semiconductor...

TECHCET CA LLC11622 El Camino Real #100San Diego, CA [email protected]

SILICON WAFERSSupply-Chain & Market Analysisa Critical Materials Report™Prepared By:Daniel Tracy

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10

1.1 WAFER BUSINESS – MARKET OVERVIEW 11

1.2 5-YEAR SILICON WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST TRENDS 12

1.3 WAFER MARKET TRENDS 13

1.4 2019 IN REVIEW 16

1.5 SILICON WAFER MARKET TRENDS 17

1.6 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 18

1.7 SILICON WAFER SHIPMENT 5-YEAR FORECAST 19

1.8 COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE 20

1.9 EHS ISSUES/CONCERNS 21

1.10 ANALYST ASSESSMENT 22

2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY 25

2.1 SCOPE 25

2.2 PURPOSE 26

2.3 METHODOLOGY 27

2.4 OVERVIEW OF OTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS 28

3 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET OUTLOOK 29

3.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY MARKET STATUS 30

3.2 WORLDWIDE ECONOMY 323.2.1 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSRTY TIES TO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY 34

3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR UNITS FORECAST 35

3.3 ELECTRONIC GOODS MARKET 363.3.1 SMARTPHONES 37

3.3.2 AUTOMOTIVE 38

3.3.2.1 INCREASE IN SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT FOR AUTOS 41

3.3.2.2 SEMICONDUCTOR CONTENT BY AUTOMOTIBE ELECTRONIC SYSTEM 42

3.3.3 SERVERS/IT 43

3.3.4 PCS/TABLETS 45

3.4 SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY FORECASTS 46

3.4.1 EQUIPMENT SPENDING AND FAB AND CAPITAL INVESTMENTS 48

3.4.2 OVERALL CHINA MARKET TRENDS 49

3.4.3 WAFER START FORECAST 50

3.5 SEMICONDUCTORE INDUSTRY MARKET OUTLOOK SUMMARY 54

4 WAFERS MARKET TRENDS 56

4.1 2020 FIRST QUARTER 574.1.1 INITIAL 2020 OUTLOOK BEFORE THE CHANGE 58

4.1.2 1Q2020 STATUS: COVID-19 IMPACT 59

4.1.3 COVID-19 IMPACT ON SILICON MARKET 60

4.1.4 FIRST QUARTER 2020 SILICON WAFER SHIPMENTS INCREASING Q1 61

TECHCET-CMR-WAFER-CMCF-060920DT Copyright 2020 TECHCET CA, LLC all rights reserved

Techcet Clients & CMC Confidential www.techcet.com 4

TABLE OF CONTENTS

4.1.5 FIRST QUARTER 2020 SUPPLIER ACTIVITY & REPORTED REVENUES 63

4.1.6 FIRST QUARTER 2020 SUPPLIER ACTIVITY & REPORTED REVENUES –TOP 5 SILICON SUPPLIERS 64

4.1.6.1 1Q2020 SUPPLIER UPDATES – SHE 654.1.6.2 1Q2020 SUPPLIER UPDATES – GLOBALWAFERS 66

4.1.6.3 1Q2020 SUPPLIER UPDATES – SILTRONIC 67

4.1.6.4 1Q2020 SUPPLIER UPDATES – SOITEC 68

4.1.6.5 1Q2020 SUPPLIER UPDATES – SUMCO 69

4.2 CURRENT CY2020MARKET ASSESSMENT 704.2.1 CY2019 IN REVIEW 714.2.2 CY2019 IN REVIEW – EARLY TRENDS IN 2019 72

4.2.3 CY2019 IN REVIEW – 2016 TO 2019 WAFER SHIPMENTS 73

4.2.4 CY2019 IN REVIEW – 2016 TO 2019 FAB CAPACITY AND UTILIZATION 75

4.2.5 CY2019 IN REVIEW – WAFER REVENUES AND ASP TRENDS 2014-2019 (EXCLUDING SOI) 77

4.2.6 CY2019 IN REVIEW – WAFER REVENUES, SILICON AND SOI FOR 2014-2019 78

4.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN (POLYSILICON) STATUS & TRENDS FOR 2020 79

4.3.1 2020 POLYSILICON SUPPLY 80

4.4 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY TRENDS 814.4.1 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – DELAYS 82

4.4.2 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – EXPANSIONS 83

4.4.3 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY 84

4.4.4 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – REGIONAL TRENDS 85

4.4.5 SILICON WAFER PRODUCTION CAPACITY – CHINA 86

4.4.6 INVESTMENT ACTIVITY COMMENTS 87

4.4.7 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 300 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS 88

4.4.8 CHINA SUPPLIERS- 200 MM PLANTS/INVESTMENTS 89

4.4.9 CHINA IMPACT ON 200 MM SUPPLY 90

4.5 TECHNICAL DRIVERS / MATERIAL CHANGES AND TRANSITIONS 92

4.5.1 GENERAL WAFER TECHNOLOGY OVERVEIW 93

4.5.2 TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 94

4.5.3 LEGACY AND SPECIALTY APPLICATION TECHNOLOGY TRENDS 95

4.5.4 SOI AND OTHER ENGINEERED SUBSTRATES 96

4.5.5 SIC WAFERS 97

4.6 COMMENT ON REGIONAL TRENDS/DRIVERS 984.6.1 REGIONAL TRENDS AND ISSUES 99

4.6.2 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 100

4.7 REGIONAL TRENDS AND DRIVERS 1024.7.1 EHS ISSUES 1034.7.2 LOGISTIC ISSUES 104

5 SUPPLIER MARKET LANDSCAPE 105

5.1 MARKET STATISTICS & FORECASTS 1065.1.1 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – 5-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 107

5.1.1.1 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – QUARTERLY WAFER SHIPMENT 5-YEAR FORECAST BY DIAMETER 108

5.1.1.2 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS – QUARTERLY WAFER SHIPMENT FORECASTTHROUGH 4Q-2020 BY DIAMETER 109

5.1.1.3 SILICON WAFER FORECASTS - WAFER BY DIAMETER FORECAST SUMMARY 110

5.1.2 200 MM AND 300 MM SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK 111



TABLE OF CONTENTS

5.1.3 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS 112

5.1.3.1 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS –ANNUAL SILICON EPI WAFER SHIPMENT FORECAST SUMMARY 113

5.1.3.2 EPITAXIAL SILICON WAFERS FORECASTS - SUPPLY AND DEMAND BALANCE 1145.1.4 SOI WAFERS – 5 YEAR REVENUE FORECAST 115

5.1.4.1 SOI WAFERS – REVENUES 2016-2019 BY DIAMETER 116

5.1.5 FORECASTS - TOTAL SILICON WAFER REVENUE FORECAST 117

5.1.6 SILICON WAFER MARKET SHARE 118

5.1.7 MARKET SHARE SUMMARY 119

5.2 M&A ACTIVITY AND PARTNERSHIPS 1205.2.1 M&A ACTIVITY 121

5.2.2 SIC INVESTMENTS & PARTNERSHIPS 124

5.2.3 GAN ON SILICON 127

5.3 PLANT CLOSURES 128

5.4 NEW ENTRANTS 1295.4.1 NEW ENTRANTS: CHINA 130

5.4.2 SHIFT IN MARKET DYNAMICS – REGIONAL SHIFT FOR SMALL DIAMETER WATERS 131

5.5 PRICING TRENDS 1325.5.1 WAFER PRICING TRENDS 133

5.5.2 PRICING TRENDS - SILICON WAFERS, COMPLEXITY 134

5.5.3 WAFER PRICING TREND GRAPH 135

5.6 TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 136

6 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN, POLYSILICON 137

6.1 SUB TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: SOURCES & MARKETS 138

6.1.1 POLYSILICON MARKET OVERVIEW 139

6.1.2 POLYSILICON MARKET SHARE 141

6.1.3 SEMICONDUCTOR-GRADE POLYSILICON SUPPLIERS 142

6.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS 1446.2.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: TARIFFS & CHINA 145

6.2.2 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN: DISRUPTIONS – REC SILICON 146

6.3 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN M&A ACTIVITY 147

6.4 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN EHS AND LOGISTICS ISSUES 148

6.5 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN “NEW” ENTRANTS 149

6.6 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANTS UPDATES-NEW 150

6.7 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PLANT CLOSURES 151

6.8 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN PRICING TRENDS 1526.8.1 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN - POLYSILICON PRICING 153

6.9 SUB-TIER SUPPLY-CHAIN TECHCET ANALYST ASSESSMENT 154

7 SUPPLIER PROFILES 156AYMONT

CENGOL

CETC

CHONGQING AST

ESWIN

FERROTEC

GLOBALWAFERS

GRITEK

GT ADVANCED TECH

MCL

ZHEJIANG JRH

II-VI

OKMETIC

SHIN-ETSU HANDOTAI

SICRYSTAL

SILTRONIC

CREE/WOLFSPEED

SK SILTRON

SUMCO

TAINERGY

TANKEBLUE

WAFER WORKS

ZHONGHUAN

ZINGSEMI



FIGURES & TABLES

Figure 1: Silicon Wafer Revenue Forecast 12

Figure 2: Quarterly Silicon Revenue Trends 15

Figure 3: Silicon Wafer Shipment Forecast 19

Figure 4: Global Economy and the Electronics Supply Chain (2019) 34

Figure 5: Worldwide Semiconductor Sales 35

Figure 6: Semiconductor Chip Applications 36

Figure 7: Mobile Phone Shipments WW Estimates 37

Figure 8: Automotive Manufacturing Plant 38

Figure 9: Oil Price per Barrel US WTI 39

Figure 10: Semiconductor Spend per Vehicle Type 41

Figure 11: Semiconductor Content by Automotive Application 42

Figure 12: Amazon Server Farm 43

Figure 13: Semiconductor Revenue Growth Forecasts (as of April 19, 2020) 46

Figure 14: Semiconductor Units History and Forecast 47

Figure 15: 200 mm Wafer Capacity Forecast 50

Figure 16: 2020/ 2019 Growth Estimates for 3DNAN, DRAM and Logic Devices (advanced nodes and leading edge) 52

Figure 17: 2020 Outlook 55

Figure 18: Quarterly Wafer Shipments 61

Figure 19: Quarterly Wafer Shipments by Diameter 62

Figure 20: Worldwide Quarterly Wafer Sales 64

Figure 21: Summary of SEH’s FY2020 Results 65

Figure 22: GlobalWafers Quarterly Sales 66

Figure 23: Siltronic’s 1Q Summary 67

Figure 24: Soitec 4QFY200 Sales (1QCY2020) 68

Figure 25: Sumco’s 1Q2020 Summary 69

Figure 26: Quarterly Wafer Shipment 73

Figure 27: Annual Wafer Shipments by Diameter 74

Figure 28: Annual Wafer Shipments by Diameter 76

Figure 29: Silicon Revenues and Aggregate ASP 77

Figure 30: Global Silicon Wafer Revenues 78

Figure 31: Polysilicon Demand 80

Figure 32: Potential Impact of China Suppliers 91

Figure 33: SOI Wafer Applications 96

TABLE OF FIGURES



FIGURES & TABLES

Figure 34: Total 2019 Revenue 98

Figure 35: Silicon Revenue Forecast 107

Figure 36: TECHCET Wafer Shipment Forecast 108

Figure 37: Wafer Shipments Forecast through 4Q2020 by Diameter 109

Figure 38: Wafer Supply/Demand Forecast 111

Figure 39: Wafer Supply/Demand Forecast 112

Figure 40: 300 mm Epi Wafer Supply/Demand 114

Figure 41: SOI Wafer Revenue Forecast 115

Figure 42: SOI Wafer Revenues by Diameter 116

Figure 43: Total Silicon Wafer Revenue Forecast 117

Figure 44: 2018 Wafer Supplier Market Share 118

Figure 45: 2019 Wafer Supplier Market Share 118

Figure 46: Worldwide Silicon Revenues 133

Figure 47: Aggregated Wafer Pricing Trends by Diameter 135

Figure 48: Polysilicon Demand 140

Figure 49: 2018 Polysilicon Market Share 149

Figure 50: Price Trend in Solar Polysilicon 153

TABLE OF FIGURES



FIGURES & TABLES

Table 1: COVID-19 Lockdowns and Restrictions by Region (April 2020) 14

Table 2: Global GDP and Semiconductor Revenues* 32

Table 3: IMF World Economic Outlook* 33

Table 4: 2020 Auto Industry Growth Impact Factors 40

Table 5: Data Center Systems and Communication Services Forecast 2020 44

Table 6: Worldwide Device Shipments by Device Type,2020-2022 (Jan 2020) 45

Table 7: 2019 Investment Plans for Selected Device Companies (as of March 2020) 48

Table 8: China Fabs Capabilities Status 49

Table 9: 2020/ 2019 Growth Estimates for 3DNAN, DRAM and Logic Devices (advanced nodes and leading edge) 51

Table 10: 1Q2020 Quarterly Wafer Supplier Sales 63

Table 11: Estimated Fab Capacity Utilization 75

Table 12: Summary of 2020 Investment Activity 84

Table 13: Wafer Supplier Manufacturing Locations 85

Table 14: Estimated China Supplier Capacity Share 86

Table 15: China Wafer Supplier 300 mm Investment Activity 88

Table 16: China Wafer Supplier 200 mm Investment Activity 89

Table 17: Estimated 200 mm Wafer Capacity China Suppliers 90

Table 18: Technology Trends/Challenges 94

Table 19: Legacy Device Trends 95

Table 20: Regional Wafer Markets 100

Table 21: Regional Wafer Markets 101

Table 22: Total Wafer Shipment Growth Rates by Diameter 110

Table 23: Epitaxial Wafer Shipment Growth Rates by Diameter 113

Table 24: Semiconductor-Grade Polysilicon Suppliers 142

TABLES



WAFER SUPPLIER PROFILES1. AYMONT .................................................................................................................. 165

1.1. Company Overview ..............................................................................................................165

1.2. Business Segments ...............................................................................................................165

1.3. Financial Overview ...............................................................................................................165

1.4. News ...................................................................................................................................165

1.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................166

1.6. Manufacturing Locations, Capabilities, and Certifications ......................................................166

1.7. JVs and Partnerships ............................................................................................................166

1.8. Sales Reps and Distributors by Region ..................................................................................166

1.9. TECHCET Analyst Assessment ...............................................................................................166

2. Cengol ...................................................................................................................... 167




2.4. News ...................................................................................................................................167

2.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................168

2.6. Manufacturing Locations, Capabilities, and Certifications .....................................................168



3. CETC ......................................................................................................................... 169




3.4. News ...................................................................................................................................171

3.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................171

3.6. Research and Manufacturing Locations, Capabilities, and Certifications.................................171






4. Chongqing AST ......................................................................................................... 173




4.4. News ...................................................................................................................................174

4.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................174





5. ESWIN ...................................................................................................................... 175




5.4. News ...................................................................................................................................176

5.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................176





6. Ferrotec ................................................................................................................... 177




6.4. News ...................................................................................................................................179

6.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................179




7. GlobalWafers ........................................................................................................... 181






7.4. News ...................................................................................................................................182

7.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................183

7.6. Manufacturing Locations, Capabilities, and Accreditations ....................................................183

7.7. JVs and Partnership ..............................................................................................................184



8. Gritek ....................................................................................................................... 185




8.4. News ...................................................................................................................................186

8.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................186





9. GT Advanced Tech .................................................................................................... 187



9.3. Financial Overview-GT Advanced Tech ..................................................................................188

9.4. News ...................................................................................................................................188

9.5. Key Customers .....................................................................................................................188





10. MCL ......................................................................................................................... 189

10.1. Company Overview ............................................................................................................189

10.2. Business Segments .............................................................................................................190



10.3. Financial Overview .............................................................................................................190

10.4. News .................................................................................................................................190

10.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................190

10.6. Manufacturing Locations, Capabilities, and Accreditations ..................................................191

10.7. JVs and Partnerships ..........................................................................................................191

10.8. Sales Reps and Distributors by Region.................................................................................191

10.9. TECHCET Analyst Assessment .............................................................................................191

11. Zhejiang JRH ............................................................................................................. 192




11.4. News .................................................................................................................................192

11.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................193




11.9. TECHCET Analyst Assessment-Zhejiang JRH .........................................................................195

12. II-VI .......................................................................................................................... 195




12.4. NewsI ................................................................................................................................196

12.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................197





13. Okmetic ................................................................................................................... 200






13.4. News .................................................................................................................................200

13.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................201





14. Shin-Etsu Handotai ................................................................................................... 202




14.4. News .................................................................................................................................204

14.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................204





15. SiCrystal ................................................................................................................... 205




15.4. News .................................................................................................................................206

15.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................206





16. Siltronic .................................................................................................................... 207




16.4. News .................................................................................................................................208



16.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................209





17. Cree/Wolfspeed ....................................................................................................... 211




17.4. News .................................................................................................................................212

17.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................212





18. SK Siltron ................................................................................................................. 214




18.4. News .................................................................................................................................216

18.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................216





19. Sumco ...................................................................................................................... 218




19.4. News .................................................................................................................................219

19.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................219







20. Tainergy ................................................................................................................... 221




20.4. News .................................................................................................................................222

20.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................222





21. TankeBlue ................................................................................................................ 223




21.4. News .................................................................................................................................224

21.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................224





22. Wafer Works ............................................................................................................ 226




22.4. News .................................................................................................................................227

22.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................227







23. Zhonghuan ............................................................................................................... 229




23.4. News .................................................................................................................................230

23.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................230




24. ZingSemi .................................................................................................................. 232




24.4. News .................................................................................................................................232

24.5. Key Customers ...................................................................................................................233







2 SCOPE, PURPOSE AND METHODOLOGY



SCOPE

• This report covers the silicon wafer market and supply-chain for those wafers used in semiconductor device fabrication. The report contains data and analysis from TECHCET’s data base and Sr. Analyst experience, as well as that developed from primary and secondary market research. For more information on TECHCET Critical materials Reports™ please go to https://TECHCET.com

• Silicon wafers are a critical in semiconductor manufacturing as most semiconductor devices are fabricated on silicon, thus silicon wafers are also the largest material spend of the semiconductor manufacturers. One of the challenges that the silicon wafer manufacturers encounter is profitability due to the timing of investments and industry downturns. Wafer pricing declined sharply from 2007 through 2016. The resulting rise and fall of profitability has led to a considerable consolidation in the market over the years, such that six manufacturers account for most of the wafer revenue and shipments. Despite this trend, new suppliers are emerging in the China market to support the “Made in China” program backed by the government. When these suppliers gain in capability and capacity, their influence could dramatically impact the silicon supply chain in the next 3+ years.

2.1



PURPOSE

This Critical Materials Report™ (CMR) provides focused information for supply-chain managers, process integration and R&D directors, as well as business development managers, and financial analysts. The report covers information about key suppliers, issues/trends in the material supply chain, estimates on supplier market share, and forecast for the material segments.2.2



METHODOLOGY

TECHCET employs subject matter experts having first-hand experience within the industries which they analyze. Most of TECHCET’s analysts have over 25 years of direct and relevant experience in their field. Our analysts survey the commercial and technical staff of IC manufacturers and their suppliers and conduct extensive research of literature and commerce statistics to ascertain the current and future market environment and global supply risks. Combining this data with TECHCET’s proprietary, quantitative wafer forecast results in a viable long-term market forecast for a variety of process materials.

2.3



OVERVIEW OFOTHER TECHCET CMR™ REPORTS

• TECHCET produces electronic material supply chain reports each year as one of its functions for the Critical Materials Council. Reports to be published in 2020 can be found at www.techcet.com and are listed in the table below:

2.4TECHCET CRITICAL MATERIALS™ REPORTS

1. CMP Consumables (Slurry, Pads, Disks)

2. ALD/CVD Precursors (Metals & Dielectrics)

3. Equipment Components- Quartz

4. Equipment Components- Silicon, SiC, Ceramics

5. Gases- Electronic Specialty, Bulk, & Rare

6. Rare Earth Market

7. Photoresist, Ancillary, & Extensions

8. Silicon Wafers

9. Sputter Targets

10. Metal Chemicals

11. Wet Chemical

12. Roadmaps & Device Technology



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