Silicon Valley 2.0 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1...54 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1 SILICON VALLEY...

1 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1

Silicon Valley 2.0

PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1 MAY 6TH 2013


CONTENT

1. WHY

2. HOW

3. WHAT

3 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1 3

WHY SV 2.0?


INCREASED FREQUENCY,

INTENSITY, DURATION OF

EXISTING HAZARDS

• FLOODING

• EXTREME STORMS

• EXTREME HEAT EVENTS

• WILDFIRE

• LANDSLIDES

• DROUGHT

REQUIRES: ENHANCED HAZARD

MITIGATION PLANNING

AND PREPAREDNESS

REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS

GRADUAL

CHANGE

• SEA LEVEL RISE

• HIGHER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

• HIGHER MINIMUM TEMPERATURES

• CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION TIMING

• REDUCED SIERRA SNOWPACK

REQUIRES: NEW FACTORS

REFLECTED IN LONG-TERM

STRATEGIC PLANNING


SEA LEVEL RISE & LAND USE

&TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE

DECREASED STREAM RUNOFF & HABITAT

WILDFIRE & INFRASTRUCTURE

INCREASED TEMPERATURE & AIR QUALITY

& AGRICULTURE

EXTREME HEAT EVENTS & VULNERABLE POPULATIONS

EXAMPLES OF REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE THREATS


SEA LEVEL RISE THREAT TO ROADS TODAY – SEA LEVEL

DRAFT

Sea L

evel R

ise D

ata

So

urc

e:

NO

AA

201

3; U

SG

S D

LG

199

1


SEA LEVEL RISE THREAT TO ROADS MID-CENTURY ~2FT

DRAFT

Sea L

evel R

ise D

ata

So

urc

e:

NO

AA

201

3; U

SG

S D

LG

199

1


SEA LEVEL RISE THREAT TO ROADS LATE-CENTURY ~5FT

DRAFT

Sea L

evel R

ise D

ata

So

urc

e:

NO

AA

201

3; U

SG

S D

LG

199

1


WILDFIRE THREAT TO INFRASTRUCTURE TODAY

DRAFT

Wild

fire

D

ata

Sourc

e:

Kra

wchuk a

nd

Moritz

201

3 (

CE

C S

tud

y);

US

GS

DLG

199

1


WILDFIRE THREAT TO INFRASTRUCTURE MID-CENTURY

DRAFT

Wild

fire

D

ata

Sourc

e:

Kra

wchuk a

nd

Moritz

201

3 (

CE

C S

tud

y);

US

GS

DLG

199

1


WILDFIRE THREAT TO INFRASTRUCTURE LATE-CENTURY

DRAFT

Wild

fire

D

ata

Sourc

e:

Kra

wchuk a

nd

Moritz

201

3 (

CE

C S

tud

y);

US

GS

DLG

199

1


EXTREME HEAT EVENTS


ANNUAL EXTREME HEAT EVENT DAYS TODAY

DRAFT

Extr

em

e H

eat

Event

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


ANNUAL EXTREME HEAT EVENT DAYS MID-CENTURY

DRAFT

Extr

em

e H

eat

Event

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


ANNUAL EXTREME HEAT EVENT DAYS LATE-CENTURY

DRAFT

Extr

em

e H

eat

Event

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


EXTREME HEAT IMPACT ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS - ELDERLY

“ During a ten-day heat wave in July 2006, the Central Coast region,

experienced 4,600 heat-related emergency department visits and 550 heat-

related hospitalizations.”



DRAFT

Eld

erl

y P

opu

latio

n P

erc

enta

ge

Data

Sourc

e:

U.S

. C

ensus 201

0



DRAFT

Surf

ace

Tem

pera

ture

D

ata

Sourc

e:

Je

rrett

, M

., e

t al . M

appin

g C

limate

Chan

ge E

xposure

s, V

uln

era

bili

tys,

and

Adap

tation to P

ublic

Health R

isks in

the

San F

ran

cis

co B

ay a

nd

Fre

sno

Regio

ns.

CE

C,

201

2



DRAFT


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY TODAY

DRAFT

Avera

ge T

em

pera

ture

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY MID-CENTURY

DRAFT

Avera

ge T

em

pera

ture

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY LATE-CENTURY

DRAFT

Avera

ge T

em

pera

ture

Data

Sourc

e:

Cal-

Adap

t 201

3


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY

“A warmer climate is projected to increase the natural emissions of VOCs,

accelerate ozone formation, and increase the frequency and duration of

stagnant air masses that allow pollution to accumulate.” - Bell et al – Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 U.S. cities


AVERAGE TEMPERATURE THREAT TO AIR QUALITY ASTHMA

DRAFT

Asth

ma S

urv

ey D

ata

Sourc

e:

Santa

Cla

ra C

oun

ty, 2

01

3


DECREASED RUNOFF THREAT TO HABITAT TODAY

DRAFT

Runo

ff D

ata

Sourc

e:

Th

orn

e e

t al 20

12 (

CE

C);

US

FW

S 2

01

1


DECREASED RUNOFF THREAT TO HABITAT MID-CENTURY

DRAFT

Runo

ff D

ata

Sourc

e:

Th

orn

e e

t al 20

12 (

CE

C);

US

FW

S 2

01

1


DECREASED RUNOFF THREAT TO HABITAT LATE-CENTURY

DRAFT

Runo

ff D

ata

Sourc

e:

Th

orn

e e

t al 20

12 (

CE

C);

US

FW

S 2

01

1


COMPLEX ISSUES AND MULTIPLE ACTORS

INDIVIDUALS & BUSINESSES

JURISDICTIONS

REGIONAL AGENCIES

UTILITIES

STATE AGENCIES

FEDERAL AGENCIES

NGOs & INSTITUTES ENAGEMENT OF

MULTIPLE ACTORS AND

INTEGRATION OF DIFFERENT

DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

ARE NEEDED TO CREATE

EFFECTIVE REGIONAL

RESILIENCY



LAND USE PLANNING

CITY

LEVEES & WATER BODIES

REGIONAL, STATE & FEDERAL

BUILDINGS & PARCELS

PROPERTY OWNERS

WASTEWATER

TREATMENT

CITY & JPA

DRAFT



LAND USE PLANNING

CITY



BUILDINGS & PARCELS

PROPERTY OWNERS

WASTEWATER

TREATMENT

CITY & JPA

DRAFT


HOW? – VULNERABILITY & RISK

ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK Sensitivity to Climate Variables and Secondary

Impacts

Climate variables and secondary impacts

Sea

Level Rise

permanent

inundation

Storm

surge

flooding

incl SLR

Increase

d rainfall

flooding

Increased heat

waves, higher

temperatures

and

evaporation

Increased drought

frequency including

reduced snow pack

and

annual/seasonal

rainfall

Increased

coastal and

land erosion,

ground

movement and

land slides

Imore

wildfire

danger

days

Change

in vector

born

disease

range

Change

pest

species

behavior

General Sensitivity to Physical Assets

BUILDINGS/PROPERTIES

including government, commercial,

industrial and residential High High High Medium Low Medium High None None

Specific - DATA CENTRES High High High High None Medium High None None

Specific - Heavy Industrial Facilities

- Chemical/Liquid Storage Medium Medium Low Low None Medium High None None

PARKS AND OPEN SPACE Medium Medium Medium Medium High Low High None Medium

ROADS High Medium Medium Low Low Medium Low None None

BRIDGES (If wooden bridges then

high sensitivity to wild fire) High Medium Medium Low None Low Low None None

TUNNELS High High High None None None None None None


EVALUATING


Impacts


Sea

Level Rise

permanent

inundation

Storm

surge

flooding

incl SLR

Increase

d rainfall

flooding

Increased heat

waves, higher

temperatures

and

evaporation

Increased drought

frequency including

reduced snow pack

and

annual/seasonal

rainfall

Increased

coastal and

land erosion,

ground

movement and

land slides

more

wildfire

danger

days

Change

in vector

born

disease

range

Change

pest

species

behavior


BUILDINGS/PROPERTIES including

government, commercial, industrial

and residential High High High Medium Low Medium High None None


Specific - Heavy Industrial Facilities -

Chemical/Liquid Storage Medium Medium Low Low None Medium High None None







EVALUATING


Impacts


Sea

Level Rise

permanent

inundation

Storm

surge

flooding

incl SLR

Increase

d rainfall

flooding

Increased heat

waves, higher

temperatures

and

evaporation

Increased drought

frequency including

reduced snow pack

and

annual/seasonal

rainfall

Increased

coastal and

land erosion,

ground

movement and

land slides

More

wildfire

danger

days

Change

in vector

born

disease

range

Change

pest

species

behavior


BUILDINGS/PROPERTIES

including government, commercial,

industrial and residential High High High Medium Low Medium High None None


Specific - Heavy Industrial Facilities -

Chemical/Liquid Storage Medium Medium Low Low None Medium High None None







EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK

EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY ADAPTIVE

CAPACITY + (+

=

VULNERABILITY

)


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK

VS


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK

Likelihood

Consequences

Insignificant

(1)

Minor

(2)

Moderate

(3)

Major

(4)

Catastrophic

(5)

Almost

certain (5)

Moderate High High Extreme Extreme

Likely

(4)

Moderate Moderate High High Extreme

Possible

(3)

Low Moderate High High High

Unlikely

(2)

Low Low Moderate Moderate High

Rare

(1)

Low Low Moderate Moderate High


EVALUATING

EXPOSURE & RISK


WHAT IS SV 2.0?


REGIONAL PROSPERITY

HUMAN

CAPITAL

NATURAL

CAPITAL

FINANCIAL

CAPITAL + +

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=san+jose&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=2ufKsgDZs7SiOM&tbnid=L5Ho3ZFlMMNn6M:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.ijcnn2011.org/&ei=PByHUa3bNKvOigLs44CoAg&bvm=bv.45960087,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGSJe71KNs0C7U61yPqb4GY11ow1A&ust=1367895458861753


CLIMATE CHANGE THREATENS REGIONAL PROSPERITY

PEOPLE 1,000’S PEOPLE IN REGION LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED IN TERMS OF HEALTH, SAFETY, ETC

HABITAT, FARMLAND, AND ECOSYSTEM

SERVICES LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.

CRITICAL TRANSPORTATION, ENERGY, COMMUNICATION INFRASTRUCTURE AT RISK.

LOCAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMY COULD

SUFFER FROM DIRECT AND INDIRECT IMPACTS.

LANDSCAPES

INFRASTRUCTURE

$

HU

MA

N

CA

PIT

AL

NA

TU

RA

L

CA

PIT

AL

FIN

AN

CIA

L

CA

PIT

AL


SILICON VALLEY 2.O PROJECT PURPOSE

To minimize the anticipated impacts of climate change and

reduce greenhouse gas emissions through a risk management

framework to:

Evaluate exposure of community assets (infrastructure,

populations, and landscapes) to likely climate impacts

Examine potential consequences to the economy, society,

and environment of this exposure

Develop preemptive adaptation strategies that improve long-

term community resiliency


IDENTIFY AT THE REGIONAL SCALE…

TOOLS AND

GUIDELINES

STRATEGIC CLIMATE

ADAPTATION PLAN

REGIONAL

CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION PLAN

SANTA CLARA COUNTY

Assets threatened by anticipated climate change

Magnitude of economic, social, and environmental impacts

Strategies to minimize these impacts

Priorities / near–term actions for effective adaptive response

Decision-support tool to assess impacts and strategies


CORE PROJECT INITIATIVES

Identify Potential Resiliency Strategies

Understand Existing Decision Processes and Where

Climate Change Resiliency Can Fit In

Develop Decision-Support Tools & Guidelines

Facilitate Communication and Governance Related To

Climate Change Resiliency


WHEN — SCHEDULE

& PARTICIPATION


PROJECT SCHEDULE

PROJECT

PARTNERS MEETINGS TECHNICAL ADVISORY

COMMITTEE MEETINGS

May – Project Kickoff

July – Climate Change Risk

Assessment Review

September – Tool Development /

Adaptation Strategy Review

June – Tool Conceptualization /

Risk Assessment Review

August – Tool Review /

Adaptation Strategy Review

September – Tool Development

Progress Review


OPEN-ENDED POLLING QUESTION

How can this effort help you improve your resilience and capacity?

a. Are there specific things you need to know?

b. Are there tools you don’t have?

c. What do you think we should prioritize as a “key impact” to address?

d. Are there other parties in your organization we should be engaging?

e. Are there other external parties we should be engaging?

f. Other?


REGIONAL ADAPTATION REVIEW


STAKEHOLDER INTERVIEW QUESTIONS

1. What do you perceive as the greatest risks to your city

(agency) from a changing environment/climate change?

2. What activities, if any, have you undertaken to plan for or

address those risks?

3. What policy direction have you received from your council

(board)?

4. How is adaptation addressed in your General Plan, or how

might it be, if currently in progress?


GREATEST RISKS FACING YOUR JURISDICTION/AGENCY

• Sea Level Rise (5)

• Increased Wildfire Frequency (4)

• Increased Frequency/Duration of Heat Events (3)

• Flooding/Increased Precipitation Intensity (3)

• Drought/Food Chain Disruption

• Power Supply Interruption

• Water Supply Interruption


ACTIVITIES UNDERTAKEN TO DATE

• Emergency Planning and Disaster Preparedness

• Some Planning in/around Water Pollution Facilities

• Sea Level Rise Study

• Moving Pumping Stations

• Hillside/Wildland-Urban Interface/Sprinkler Ordinances

• Developing Local Hazard Mitigation Plan

• Complete Streets/Sustainable Development Strategies

• None


POLICY DIRECTION FROM ELECTEDS

• None (5)

• Discussed Generally in Context of Climate Action Plan and/or

General Plan

• Sea Level Rise Discussed Specifically; Mitigation Criteria &

Approach Adopted


HOW IS ADAPTATION ADDRESSED IN GENERAL PLAN, &

OTHER MAJOR POLICY/PLANNING DOCUMENTS

• Updating Public Safety Element, Similar (2)

• Total re-write of General Plan Underway

• Developing Specific and/or Precise Plans in Relevant Areas

• Vulnerability Analysis (on Future Work Plan)

• Countywide Transportation Plan


ONLINE SURVEY

• 12 completed responses from government agencies


• Do current and/or

anticipated physical

effects of climate

change present

significant risks to your

city? 10

1

Yes

No


- Water supply impacts – - Extremely Serious (4)

- Serious (5)

- Less Serious (1)

- Flooding – - Extremely Serious (3),

- Serious (7)

- Extreme storm events (precipitation and wind) – - Extremely Serious (3)

- Serious (6),

- Less Serious (1)

ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE … 1st Tier:


• Cited as Extremely Serious by 2 respondents and Serious by

at least 5 respondents: - Extreme temperature events (extreme heat days, frost/freeze)

- Changed precipitation quantities

- Drought

- Increased sea levels (inundation, coastal erosion, storm surge levels,

saltwater intrusion)

ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE … 2ND Tier:


• Cited as Extremely Serious by 2 respondents and Serious by

2 or more respondents - Air/water/vector-borne diseases

- Wildfire

- Air quality reduction

ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE … 3RD Tier:


• Increased subsidence – - Extremely Serious (1),

- Serious (4),

- Less Serious (3)

• Landslides – - Extremely Serious (1),

- Serious (3),

- Less Serious (5)

• Invasive species/pests – - Serious (6),

- Less Serious (3)

• Changed average temperature patterns – - Serious (6),

- Less Serious (4)

ANTICIPATED EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE … OTHER:


• Do you consider that the

physical impacts of

climate change could

threaten the ability of

businesses to operate

successfully in your

city? 10

1

Yes

No


• Do you have a plan for

increasing your city’s

resilience to the

expected physical

effects of climate

change? 8

3

No

Yes


• 7 responses each: - Awareness campaign/education to reduce water use

- Promoting low flow technologies

- Low-water landscaping

PLEASE DESCRIBE THE ACTIONS YOU ARE TAKING TO

REDUCE THE RISK TO YOUR CITY’S INFRASTRUCTURE,

CITIZENS, AND BUSINESSES FROM THE EFFECTS OF

CLIMATE CHANGE.


• 6 responses each: - Retrofit of existing buildings

- Reduce power consumption

- Increase local renewable energy generation

- Tree planting and/or creation of green space

- Community engagement/education




CLIMATE CHANGE.


• Other: - Crisis Management including warning systems (4)

- Air quality initiatives (3)

- Stormwater capture systems (3)

- Restrict development in flood risk areas (3)

- Shading in public spaces (3)

- Rainwater capture (3)




CLIMATE CHANGE.


• Does your city face any

social risks as a result of

climate change? 3

7

Yes

Don’t know


• Increased risk to already vulnerable populations (3)

• Population displacement (3)

• Increased resource demand (2)

PLEASE IDENTIFY WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING SOCIAL

RISKS YOUR CITY MAY OR WILL FACE AS A RESULT OF

CLIMATE CHANGE.


THANK YOU

Silicon Valley 2.0 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1...54 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1 SILICON VALLEY...

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Transcript of Silicon Valley 2.0 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1...54 PROJECT PARTNER’S MEETING 1 SILICON VALLEY...