Signposts to 2020 - 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios
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Gary Dolphin, Market Outlook Manager, discusses the possible routes to meeting the 2020 environmental targets and how these might be delivered under the 4 future energy scenarios.
Transcript of Signposts to 2020 - 2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios
Our scenariosLow Carbon Life
Slow ProgressionNo Progression
Gone Green
2020:15% of UK final energy consumption from renewable sources
RenewableEnergy Target
Renewable energyGone Green
Total: 15%
Electricity: 34.5% Heating: 10.5% Transport: 7.9%
20202013Total: 5.2%
Electricity: 13.9% Heating: 2.8% Transport: 4.4%
Source: DECC Energy Trends: June 2014 Special feature – Renewable energy in 2013
Alternative “Silver Bullet Gone Greens”?
Currently 0.5m homesAll Solar?
Extra 50 GW offshore
Extra 40 GW (11 Drax)
Extra 42 m homes
All Wind?Currently 10.5 GW
AllBiomass?
Currently 2 GW
“Challenging but achievable”
Gone Green: meeting the renewable energy target on time
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Total Onshore Total Offshore
Historical Wind Capacity
Total Offshore:3.5 GW
Total Onshore:7 GW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Total Onshore Total Offshore
2014 Gone Green – Wind Capacity
Total Offshore:12.5 GWTotal Onshore:14 GW
Gone Green 2020Total Wind:26.5 GW
Additional Offshore: 9 GW
Additional Onshore: 7 GW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Total Wind Linear (Total Wind)
Trends - Linear
Total: 13 GW
Total: 25 GW
26.5 GW
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Total Wind Poly. (Total Wind)
Trends – Second order polynomial
Total: 26 GW
26.5 GW
y = ax2 +bx + c
Gone Green 2014 Build rates – GW per year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cap
acity
GW
/yea
r
Onshore build rate Offshore build rate
1 – 1.25 GW/yr
2.75 – 4 GW/yr
Gone Green 2014 Build rates – GW per year
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cap
acity
GW
/yea
r
Onshore build rate Offshore build rate Gone Green2013 build rate (combined)
China 20 GW/yrUSA 13 GW/yr
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cap
acity
GW
Current Tx Offshore Wind Offshore Wind req't at 2020
11.7
3.4
Transmission Offshore Wind
8.3
Source: Transmission Entry Capacity Register
Additional Offshore: 9 GW
Transmission connected: 8.3 GW
Transmission Offshore Wind
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cap
acity
GW
Scoping Awaiting Consents Consents Approved
Under Construction Current Tx Offshore Wind Offshore Wind req't at 2020
3.4 0.7
4
11.2
23.6
8.3
∑40 GW
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
I
H
G
F
E
D
C
B
A
Months
Offs
hore
Win
d pr
ojec
ts
Awaiting consents Consents approved Under construction
Offshore Wind project timelines18 months 30 months 24 months Total: 72 months
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Operational Under ConstructionConsents Approved Awaiting ConsentsGone Green Tx Offshore Wind req't @ 2020
Offshore wind requirement: met
24 months 30 months 24 months
0
5
10
15
20
25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Cap
acity
GW
Operational Under ConstructionConsents Approved Awaiting ConsentsGone Green Tx Offshore Wind req't @ 2020
Signposts
Gone Green
“More money available”
“More energyinfrastructure”
“More disposableincome”
“Focus on environmentalsustainability”
“Policy and regulation is strong, consistent and effective”
“Clear route to achieving a sustainable future”
“Society is engaged”
“High technologicalinnovation”
Gone Green is the art of the possible
Gone Green
“Challenging but achievable”
In summary
Gone Green remains “challenging but achievable”
Progress is required over the next 12 to 24 months
We need your help to create the most robust and plausible range of scenarios
London Array Ltd
