Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian...

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Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective

Transcript of Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian...

Page 1: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature Global AdvisorsGeof Marshall, Portfolio Manager

Global Investing from a

Canadian Perspective

Page 2: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature overview

Facts• Global investment team based in Canada• 33 person investment team – one of the largest in Canada• Core investment style, with diversified portfolios of large cap securities • Specialize in broad flexible mandates • $35 billion in AUM – ample scale to compete for talent, research and trading

1 As at June 30, 2010

*Cash & cash equivalents: commercial paper, floating rates, bonds (in money market) and government (in money market)

Page 3: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Deep, specialized investment team

Shawna McIntee (7) Aldo Sunseri (26) Connie Lee (10)

Ryan Fitzgerald, CFA (7)

Stephane Champagne (16)

TRADING PROFESSIONALS

ERIC BUSHELL, CFA (18)

Sara Shahram, CFA (9)

Income Trusts/REITS

Health Care

Goshen Benzaquen (10)

Energy & MaterialsScott Vali, CFA (15)

CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Drummond Brodeur, CFA (22) Matthew Strauss, CFA (17)

GLOBAL INVESTMENT STRATEGISTS

Eric Bushell, CFA (18)

Rui Cardoso, CFA (14)

Joshua Varghese (1)

Aero, Auto, Defence, UtilitiesMassimo Bonansinga, M.B.A. (21)

Gorlen Zhou (2)

Consumer

Henry Kwok (11)

Hoa Hong, CFA (10)

Tech, Media, TelecomMalcolm White, CFA (16)Jeremy Yeung, CFA (10)

John Hadwen, CFA (18)Financials

Industrials, TransportJoe D'Angelo, CFA (14)

Yvonne Lau, CFA (9)

High YieldGeof Marshall, CFA (15)

Kevin McSweeney, CFA (11)Brad Benson, M.A. (13)Carlton Ling, CFA (8)

Investment GradeJohn Shaw, CFA (21)Paul Simon, CFA (10)

Leanne Ongaro, CFA (4)Jonathan Chew (1)

GLOBAL SECTOR/ ASSET CLASS SPECIALISTS

Derek Tucker, CFA (11)Shelly Ghai, M.B.A. (7)

Rates and Foreign Exchange

Matthew Strauss, CFA (17)

Eric Bushell, CFA (18)

Darren Arrowsmith, CFA (12)

Paul Simon, CFA (10)

PreferredsJohn Shaw, CFA (21)

Page 4: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Global Road Map

Page 5: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Developed markets: Running out of policy bullets

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Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12

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US Economic Surprise Index (Actual vs Expected Data)

S&P 500

US

FiscalC.Bank QE1 TwistQE2 QE3

400 pt drop in Fed funds

OMTLTRO Europe Fiscal

C.Bank

Page 6: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Will the private sector bite?

Page 7: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Deleveraging and the economy

Government sector

balance sheet

Household sector

balance sheet

Corporate sector

balance sheet

Deleveraging delayed

Deleveraging ending

Deleveraging completed

Bottom line: Private sector deleveraging began in 2008 and has been the key reason why the U.S. recovery has been so weak over the past couple of years.

We are now approaching the end of the deleveraging cycle.

Banking sector

balance sheet

Deleveraging ending

Page 8: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

A non-deflationary deleveraging recipe

Add ingredients in equal measure

• Debt paydown

• Default

• Positive growth

• Inflation

Apply low interest rates to support asset prices. Ensure banks and credit markets function. Stir for 7-10 years.

Page 9: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Financial repression

Bernanke

Page 10: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Do not ignore valuations

Source: TD Securities

Page 11: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Income trust redux

Financial repression:

negative real rates

High payoutfinancial

structures

Cost of capitaladvantage forhigh payout

model

Accretive acquisitions& earnings

growth

Dilemma: convert or be

left behind

Capital flows

Page 12: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

• Massive inflows?

• Sell-side justification of valuations?

• New products?

• Hard for fundamentals to get any better?

• Spread compression between ratings?

• Increased leverage and credit risk?

The progression of the yield trade – technical indicators

Income opportunities – caution

Page 13: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Income opportunities – caution

The progression on the yield trade – structural changes

Page 14: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Premier resort operator on the Las Vegas Strip with such properties as Bellagio, Mirage, MGM Grand as well as joint ventures CityCenter and MGM Macau.

B3/B- rated US$8.625% bonds due 2/1/2019 and numerous secured bonds rated Ba2/B+

Aggressive balance sheet expansion prior to 2008 left MGM exposed during the credit crisis. A rebound in visitation, borrowing on a secured basis against ‘trophy’ assets and dividends from Macau allowed for the refinancing of near-term maturities and ongoing debt reduction.

Value in top tier assets – MGM Resorts: 6.7%

Income opportunities – high yield bonds

Bellagio, Las Vegas

Yield as of October 17, 2012

Page 15: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Leading supplier of highly-engineered components to the global automotive and industrial sectors. Debt levels increased substantially when the company tendered for shares in tire manufacturer Continental AG in September 2008.

Ba3/B+ rated US$8.5% bonds due 2/15/2019

European banks were no longer willing or able to refinance the company’s debt, forcing them into the public bond market; particularly the deep U.S. dollar high yield market. More opportunities like this to follow as the European banking sector shrinks.

The Schaeffler Group – European borrower in U.S. dollars: 5.4%

Income opportunities – high yield bonds

Schaeffler’s slimline spur gear differential

Yield as of October 17, 2012

Page 16: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Largest Canadian provider of broadband Internet access to rural households using satellites and terrestial towers.

Un-rated C$9% cash coupon and 4% PIK senior secured bonds due 5/15/2017 with warrants

Un-served market is 2.5mm households with only ~6% penetration so far compared to ~85% in urban/suburban regions. Projected growth should enable quick deleveraging with government subsidies accelerating business model de-risking.

LTV = 60% on subscribers and spectrum.

Barret xPlornet – high yield bonds in Canadian dollars: 9.5%

Income opportunities – high yield bonds

Yield as of October 17, 2012

Page 17: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Gecina

Metrovacesa Former insiders Public

27% 31% 42%

Spanish banks

96% Loans

Louis Vuitton French headquarters, Paris

Class A Paris office and apartments,leveraged at 40% LTV by YE 2012

Dividend yield well covered at 5.25% andcompany un-surfacing value through apartment sales and share buybacks

Trades at approximately 25% discount to liquidation value

Select buying opportunities in restructuring plays – Gecina 5.7%

Income opportunities – caution in Europe

Yield as of October 17, 2012

Page 18: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

West Coast specialist consolidating assets in top markets such as San Francisco and L.A.

Small market cap ($9000m) which means that acquisition and development strategy can dramatically increase cash flow per share.

Valuation: valuation trades in line with peer group despite the exposure to superior markets and far better growth prospects. Low dividend yield of 2.5% but set to grow in coming years.

Sunset Bronson Studios, Hollywood CA

Income opportunities – real estate

Value in unique assets – Hudson Pacific Properties: 2.8%

Yield as of October 17, 2012

Page 19: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Irreplaceable asset that requires little capital expenditures and spins off a tremendous amount of free cash flow.

Cash flows have proved very resilient to both weather and recession.

Spun out of IntraWest which was taken private by Fortress in a disastrous top-of-the-market deal in 2006.

Valuation: 9x 2013 EBITDA. 8% dividend yield and substantial potential for capital gains.

Peak to Peak Gondola, Whistler Blackcomb, B.C.

Income opportunities – real estate

Value in irreplaceable assets – Whistler Blackcomb: 8.5%

Yield as of September 5, 2012

Page 20: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

San Cristobal Tunnel, Santiago, Chile

San Cristobal Tunnel completed in 2008. and operated by Spanish firm ACS and German firm Hochtief. ACS is highly-levered. At the beginning of 2011 they faced €12B in 2012 debt maturities against a market cap of €11B.

ACS began selling assets in 2011, starting with Latin American infrastructure assets. Brookfield Asset Management buys a stake in the Vespicio toll road as well as the San Cristobal tunnel for $291mm.

Conclusion – European deleveraging will create global opportunities for capital providers for years to come.

Latin American infrastructure on sale

Income opportunities – caution in Europe

Page 21: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature flexibility

• Continue to invest in good, risk-adjusted securities

• Continue to invest in securities and asset classes set to benefit from deleveraging

• Will not simply invest in higher-yielding, higher-risk securities that have not yet run up in price

• Seek maximum diversification and remain cautious of common themes that can creep into portfolios

• Take full advantage of fund flexibility to manage downside risk

Page 22: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature positioning

Cash & gold

• Cautionary holdings; overweight

Government bonds

• Negative real returns; underweight

Investment-grade bonds

• Specific opportunities; market weight

High-yield bonds

• Still finding value; overweight

Equities

• Strong, less economically sensitive, quality; slight underweight

Page 23: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature Diversified Yield

Portfolio Snapshot, as at Sept. 30, 2012

Page 24: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Conclusion

• Policy actions will continue to dominate markets

• Real interest rates will be low or negative for some time

• Financial repression changes the rules for investors

• Canadian investors need to be positioned to take advantage of global trends

• Global yield story has legs

• Signature has the personnel, process, and solutions to gives investors a real advantage in uncertain market

Page 25: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature Solutions

Source: “PalTrack”, as at Sep. 30, 2012

Page 26: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Signature team awards

Eric Bushell, Chief Investment Officer, Signature Global Advisors

Morningstar Equity Manager of the Year, 2009Morningstar Fund Manager of the Decade, 2010

• Signature High Income Fund – Best Canadian income trust fund, 2004, Best Global Balanced 2010, 2011

• Signature Canadian Balanced Fund – Best Canadian balanced fund, 2007, 2009

• Signature Canadian Resource Fund – Best natural resource equity fund, 2008, 2009

• Signature Dividend Fund – Best dividend fund, 2001, 2002, 2009

• Signature Income & Growth Fund – Best global balanced fund, 2008

• Signature Select Canadian Fund – Best Canadian equity fund, 2001

Page 27: Signature Global Advisors Geof Marshall, Portfolio Manager Global Investing from a Canadian Perspective.

Thank youAll charts and illustrations in this guide are for illustrative purposes only. They are not intended to predict or project investment results.

®CI Investments, the CI Investments design and Signature Global Advisors are registered trademarks of CI Investments Inc. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. Unless otherwise indicated and except for returns for periods less than one year, the indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in security value. All performance data assume reinvestment of all distributions or dividends and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.